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Yesterday's diary gives us an image so weak and unpopular of former senator N Coleman. Some people can think this is lose the time, but for the series win value, is necessary forget no-one of the more important likely republican challengers. Is much more difficult to cover the new candidates what can emerge in next years in republican side, but with high level officers or former officers is so easy cover all the people with a minimum chance and let not space to be surprised by new returns. In this series only get out Bush governments members, politicians affected by scandals, and politicians with less than 70 years old at the end of 2010, what are not incumbents or are not running for the highest level offices.

Have in this series, some weak but prominent republicans is not bad. Quit all weak options would make the first democrats appear losing the majority of times in this series and this would give a not real image about blue states. I find we can see all the dangers, but I find too show the real face of republicans in blue states: the majority of they are losers.

Today I have in republican side R Grams, other former senator what lost his senate seat against M Dayton in 2000, and later lost for a house seat against J Oberstar in 2006. The people will have here the last word about R Grams.

I remember and update from previous diaries the structure of this series.

RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER LEVEL OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS

  1. Maine: 2/2 Senate.
  1. Nevada: 1/2 Senate. Governor. 1/3 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Iowa: 1/2 Senate. 2/5 House. 2 Statewide officers.
  1. Massachusetts: 1/2 Senate.
  1. New Hampshire: 1/2 Senate.
  1. New Jersey: Governor. 5/13 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Minnesota: Governor. 3/8 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. California: Governor. 19/53 House. Lieutenant Governor (*). 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Vermont: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Hawaii: Governor. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Connecticut: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. (Without include J Lieberman).
  1. Rhode Island: Governor.
  1. Delaware: 1/1 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Michigan: 7/15 House. 2 Statewide Officers. MI Senate majority.
  1. Wisconsin: 3/8 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Pennsylvania: 7/19 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer. PA Senate majority.
  1. Illinois: 7/19 House.
  1. Washington: 3/9 House. 2 Statewide Officers.
  1. Colorado: 2/7 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Oregon: 1/5 House.
  1. Maryland: 1/8 House.
  1. New York: 2/29 House.
  1. New Mexico: 1 Statewide Officer.

(*): Without take office still.

The links in the state names go to my diaries about gerrymander redistricting (allways finding the limits) for these states in Swing State Project.

My way for redistrict New York is recogniced as winner in Swing State Project Contest for this state with nice words. Thanks to SSP.

For national level: With a consolidated blue ticket we can look to republican side.

REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM BLUE STATES BY SERIOUSNESS.

  1. Timothy James Pawlenty: MN 1960 Governor of MN 03-11.
  1. George Elmer Pataki: NY 1945 Governor of NY 95-06.
  1. Willard Mitt Romney: MI MA 1947 Governor of MA 03-07. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 94.
  1. Rudolph William Louis Giuliani: NY 1944 Mayor of New York 94-01. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 00.
  1. Gary Earl Johnson: ND NM 1953 Governor of New Mexico 95-03.
  1. Richard John Santorum: VA PA 1958 Senator from PA 95-07. USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 06.

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

But we will see all they in his home state and we will have better reference about they.

For state level:

DEMOCRATS IN THE CABINET OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

Still no-one.

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

MA1: John Forbes Kerry: CO MA 1943 D Presidential Nominee 04. Senator from Massachusetts 85- . Lieutenant Governor of MA 83-85. Lost for President 04. Lost for House 72.
MN1: Alan Stuart Franken: NY MN 1951 Senator from Minnesota 09- .
NH1: Cynthia Jeanne Shaheen: MO NH 1947 Senator from New Hampshire 09- . Governor of New Hampshire 97-03. Lost for senate 02.
NJ1: Robert Menendez: NY NJ 1954 Senator from New Jersey 06- . USHRep 93-06. Lost for Mayor of Union City 82.
IA1: Thomas Richard Harkin: IA 1939 Senator from Iowa 85- . USHRep 75-85. Lost for President 92. Lost for House 72.
NV1: Harry Mason Reid: NV 1939 Senator from Nevada 87- . USHRep 83-87. Lieutenant Governor of NV 71-75. Lost for Senate 74.
ME1: Chellie M Pingree: MN ME 1955 USHRep 09- . Lost for Senate 02.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00.000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01.429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02.857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04.286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05.714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07.142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08.571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10.000 ---

ME: C Pingree (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 25 votes = 03.267 => Leans Republican
IA: T Harkin (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: C Pingree (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.529 => Leans Republican
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 14 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 14 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 14 votes = 05.357 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs C Smith (R) after 24 votes = 06.389 => Leans Democratic
IA: T Harkin (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 18 votes = 06.574 => Leans Democratic
ME: C Pingree (D) vs P Mills (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. O Snowe
  1. C Grassley
  1. S Collins
  1. B Krolicki

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

MN2: Keith Maurice Ellison: MI MN 1963 USHRep 07- .
NH2: John H Lynch: MA NH 1952 Governor of New Hampshire 05- .
MA2: Joseph Patrick Kennedy: MA 1952 USHRep 87-99.
NV2: Frankie Sue Del Papa: NV 1949 NV Secretary of State 87-91. NV Attorney General 91-03.
IA2: Thomas James Vilsack: PA IA 1950 Secretary of Agriculture 09- . Governor of Iowa 99-07. Lost for President 08.
ME2: John Elias Baldacci: ME 1955 Governor of ME 03-11. USHRep 95-03.
NJ2: Richard James Codey: NJ 1946 Governor of New Jersey 04-06. Acting governor of New Jersey 02-02. President of NJ Senate 02-08 08-10.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

IA: T Vilsack (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 14 votes = 03.452 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 11 votes = 03.485 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 32 votes = 03.649 => Leans Republican
NJ: R Codey (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 14 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs S Collins (R) after 21 votes = 04.365 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Smith (R) after 17 votes = 04,608 => Toss-Up
IA: T Vilsack (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 20 votes = 04.667 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 04.697 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Christie (R) after 16 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 11 votes = 05.303 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 06.319 => Leans Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. B Sandoval
  1. F LoBiondo
  1. P Mills
  1. C Smith
  1. T Branstad
  1. R Frelinghuysen

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

MN3: Amy Jean Klobuchar: MN 1960 Senator from Minnesota 07- .
MA3: Michael Everett Capuano: MA 1952 USHRep 99- . Lost for senate 10.
IA3: Chester John Culver: DC IA 1966 Governor 07- . IA Secretary of State 99-07.
ME3: Michael Herman Michaud: ME 1955 USHRep 03- . President ME Senate 00-02.
NH3: Paul Hodes: NY NH 1951 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
NV3: Robert Joseph Miller: IL NV 1945 Governor of Nevada 89-99. Lieutenant Governor of NV 87-89.
NJ3: William Warren Bradley: MO NJ 1943 Senator from New Jersey 79-97. Lost for President 00.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

NV: R J Miller (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 02.708 => Likely Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 11 votes = 03.030 => Leans Republican
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 15 votes = 03.222 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller vs B Sandoval (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.431 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 29 votes = 03.506 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 28 votes = 03.571 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Smith (R) after 11 votes = 03.636 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 03.788 => Leans Repub
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.048 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 23 votes = 04.130 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 08 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Christie (R) after 19 votes = 04.649 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 07 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 14 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
ME: M Michaud (D) vs J McKernan (R) after 07 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs S Garrett (R) after 11 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
IA: C Culver (D) vs D Vaudt (R) after 17 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs S Lowden (R) after 11 votes = 05.152 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller vs J Ensign (R) after 21 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs T Pawlenty (R) after 22 votes = 05.303 => Toss-Up
MA: M Capuano (D) vs C Baker (R) after 13 votes = 05.385 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Sununu (R) after 13 votes = 05.769 => Leans Democratic
MA: M Capuano (D) vs M Romney (R) after 27 votes = 06.419 => Leans Democratic
MA: M Capuano (D) vs S Brown (R) after 54 votes = 06.481 => Leans Democratic
NV: R J Miller vs J Gibbons (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs C Benson (R) after 14 votes = 06.786 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs R Grams (R) after 23 votes = 07.246 => Likely Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs N Coleman (R) after 32 votes = 07.865 => Likely Democrat
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs E Paulsen (R)
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs M Seifert (R)

REPUBLICANS OVER THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. D Heller
  1. J Gregg
  1. C Christie (vulnerable)
  1. S Merrill (vulnerable)
  1. K Ayotte (vulnerable)

All they first level politic targets for democrats

For mid level races including EVEN or D+ districts in purple or red states:

2010 MID LEVEL RACES WHAT NEED MORE WORK IN DEMOCRATIC SIDE

I wish bold the next races because I think need more work. They are races in favourable constituencies for fight hard and not lose.

First remember is not assured still good democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor in IL, NY, CT, MI, MN, PA and CO. All they will run in the ticket for governor and lieutenant governor.

Races with elected democratic incumbent.
NY-01 EVEN Poor R challenger with good fundraising. Little disadvantage fundraising.
NH-01 EVEN Decent R challenger with decent fundraising. Bad poll.
OH-15 D+1 Decent R challenger with good fundraising. Rematch.
OH-01 D+1 Strong R challenger with good fundraising. Rematch vs former inc. Bad poll.
PA-11 D+4 Weak D incumbent. Rematch.

Races with nominated incumbent, with party switcher since last election, or Open races.
CT-SS D+7 I have not data about fundraising.
IL-10 D+6 Poor R candidates with good fundraising.
VT-LG D+13 Decent R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
VT-SS D+13 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MA-ST D+12 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MA-SA D+12 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
NY-AG D+12 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
RI-AG D+11 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
RI-ST D+11 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
CA-IC D+8 Poor D candidates with good fundraising, Poor R cand w good f, Little disad f.
PA-07 D+3 Poor D candidates with good fundraising, Poor R cand w good f, Little disad f.
IL-ST D+9 Poor D candidates, Decent R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MI-SS D+5 Poor D candidates, Decent R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
CA-AG D+8 Poor D candidates with good fundraising, Decent R candidates with good fu.
NH-02 D+3 Strong R candidates with decent fundraising. Bad poll.
VT-SA D+13 Poor D candidates, Strong R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
IL-SC D+9 Poor D candidates, Strong R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MI-AG D+5 Poor D candidates, Strong R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.

Races with elected republican incumbent.
LA-02 D+25 High D disadvantage fundraising.
DE-SA D+7 Poor D candidates, I have not dat about fundraising.

For every group the last race is the more dangerous what I include.

If you see this diary after days, you can see the last actualization of this serie in my last diary. All the polls continue open to new votes still. The results of polls of previous diaries are updated too in the last diary specially the diaries with lower number of votes. For see my last diary click in "abgin's diary".

Originally posted to abgin on Tue Mar 02, 2010 at 06:45 PM PST.

Poll

MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs R Grams (R)

57%15 votes
7%2 votes
7%2 votes
3%1 votes
0%0 votes
3%1 votes
19%5 votes

| 26 votes | Vote | Results

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