This dairy is directed toward the layman who admits that AGW exists, but argues that the changes will not be so bad and the economic impact of fighting global warming is too expensive. While there have been many pixels spent on the effects global warming will have on sea levels, storms, floods, droughts, and specie extinction, I many not sure enough has been written about a consequence that is likely to effect middle class people like myself first, insects.
Perhaps you own a home in Northern Virginia and when you decide to sell it you discover that, even though there aren't any state or locals laws require it, no lender will issue a loan until you inspect and treat your home for termites. Maybe you have planted a garden in Oregon only to wake up on morning to find it decimated by caterpillars you have never seen before. Or two weeks after walking along that forest trail in the Upper Midwest the doctor tells you you have Lyme disease. All of these scenarios are possible within the next few years as the planet warms.
Below the fold are just a few of the bug threats that are likely to effect your health and pocketbook.
Herbivore Insect
Herbivore insects are the ones that like to eat leaves, like moth caterpillars and the sawfly. Not all of these insects will benefit from a warmer planet, but some will. As the planet warms some of these herbivores will thrive in higher latitudes or at higher elevations. As they do this they can devastate forests and crops. Their predators, unable to reproduce as fast or unable to recognize their prey in a new environment, may not prove an effective deterrent.
But, you ask, with more CO2, wont the plants thrive too and offset those pesky bugs? Well yes and no. Plants will benefit from increased CO2, but they will have to do less work to produce leaves, changing the carbon to nitrogen ratio. Plants will not need to produce as much protein in their leaves, the protein insects need to survive. Some insects will adapt to lower protein, but others will just eat more leaves to meet their protein needs, potentially causing blighted forests in say Wisconsin.
Forests and climate change - lessons from insects
The winter pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa offers a possibility to test for the effects of global warming on an insect population over a wide area of the Mediterranean basin and southern parts of Europe, where it is the most important pest of pine forests (Pinus spp.). Its geographic range lies within precise limits of elevation and latitude ([17]), primarily as a function of the average winter temperatures. Because the larvae are oligophagous, potentially feeding on all Pinus spp., but also on Cedrus spp. and the introduced Pseudotsuga menziesii, host plant distribution does not restrict the present range of the insect; many usual or potential host species grow in areas where the insect is absent. Consequently, if the climatic conditions become favourable in higher latitudes or at higher elevations, the insect may expand its range to these areas, often coupled with host switching ([7], [41]). This relative importance of temperature over biotic factors in defining the geographic distribution makes the moth a particularly suitable model to study the range shift in relation to global warming ([14]).
An important forest pest in many areas, the moth has shown in the last decades a substantial expansion of the outbreak area both northward and upward ([29], [26], [7]), aggravated by extreme climatic events such as the summer of 2003 ([8]). This has resulted in high attack rates in areas previously largely unaffected by the insect ([51]). The case deserves special interest for the implications it may have on the management of European forests and plantations, as well as on ornamental trees.
Another phenomena that is already being observed is multiple generations of insects in a single season
Warming has already boosted insect breeding
Summertime and the insect breeding is easy.
That old song rings especially true for 44 species of moths and butterflies in Central Europe, according to an analysis by ecologist Florian Altermatt of the University of California, Davis. As the region has warmed since the 1980s, some of these species have added an extra generation during the summer for the first time on record in that location.
Among the 263 species already known to have a second or third generation there during toasty times, 190 have grown more likely to do so since 1980, Altermatt reports online December 22 in Proceedings of the Royal Society B.
Only a rough third or so of all the species Altermatt reviewed show the capacity to breed more than once a year. What warming is probably doing for them, he speculates, is jolting the insects’ overwintering form into action early and also speeding up insect development. These head starts may allow time for a bonus generation before a non-temperature cue, atumnal day length, plays its role in shutting down insects for winter.
"From a pest perspective it’s an important issue," says population ecologist Patrick Tobin based in Morgantown, W.Va., for the Forest Service Northern Research Station. Tobin has studied a warmth-related extra generation in a North American pest, the grape berry moth. He points out that an extra surge of attacking pests in the growing season means yet another headache, expense and round of damage for farmers.
As this herbivore army marches north and up, not only our gardener in Eugene is effect, so is the farmer who has to spend more on spraying insecticides and the states trying to fight the devastation of their forests.
Termites
Termites already account for over $2 billion dollars worth of damage a year in the U.S. alone, and with increasing temperatures that cost is likely to increase to much much more. Many of the termites indigenous to America live on the surface and their range is limited to areas of the Nation that seldom have hard freezes, but with the introduction of the Formosan subterranean termite, the situation has changed. The Formosan termite can burrow under the ground to a region that is not frozen and survive in areas of the country once immune to termite damage. Once confined to the South East the subterranean termites have already spread to Virginia, Missouri, New Mexico, and Arizona, and that is with an only 0.8 degree increase in global temperature.
Termites and climate change: Here, there and everywhere?
Termites are ubiquitous in Mississippi, where no wooden structure or dead log is immune to the insect’s powerful jaws, but in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, termites are almost unheard of. My grandfather’s camp is made entirely of wood and sits on a concrete slab with just a centimeter or two of clearance between the soil and the wood. The main part of the building is more than 70 years old and has never once had a termite. In fact, termites are so rare that preventative treatments for termites are not required in the Upper Peninsula.
But someday my grandfather’s camp may need some termite-proofing. With warmer conditions creeping northward as the climate changes, especially in the winter, termites will likely expand their territories to higher latitudes. And because those areas are not equipped to handle termites, this could cause untold billions of dollars in property damages, unless we prepare for the coming changes
...
he area of North America that is of immediate concern for termites — from the Gulf of Mexico to the southern shores of Canada’s Hudson Bay — is predicted to see an increase in annual mean temperature of 3 degrees to more than 4 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years. Areas even farther north are expected to warm to an even greater degree and experience higher precipitation, especially in the East. But more than higher annual temperatures, it’s the winter temperature increases that matter the most. In the area of immediate concern, winter temperatures are predicted to increase by up to 7 degrees Celsius, and extreme cold events are expected to decrease in frequency.
This portends problems. Most termites die off during the winter in areas where the ground freezes: Most species cannot survive sustained temperatures below 9 degrees Celsius, and even fewer can survive temperatures below 1 degree Celsius. Thus the increase in the winter temperature in the North will affect termite populations largely because as winter temperatures warm, termites may be better able to survive winters in more northern climates. Scientists don’t know exactly how termites spend the winter in areas where the depth to which the soil freezes (the frost line) is significantly deep, but researchers assume that termites survive in soil below the frost line. Central heating might also help termites to survive, with the assumption being that heated basements keep soil above freezing throughout the year.
We are talking BILLIONS of dollars here. This is an impact of global warming which almost all of you reading this are going to have to deal with in your life time. It is not some distant catastrophic disaster, it is happening now.
Insects and Disease
As our planet warms mosquito are carrying malaria, West Nile, and dengue fever to higher latitudes and higher elevations. Ticks catching a ride on deers are bring Lyme disease to a forest near you.
Climate Change Drives Disease To New Territory
Global warming -- with an accompanying rise in floods and droughts -- is fueling the spread of epidemics in areas unprepared for the diseases, say many health experts worldwide. Mosquitoes, ticks, mice and other carriers are surviving warmer winters and expanding their range, bringing health threats with them.
Malaria is climbing the mountains to reach populations in higher elevations in Africa and Latin America. Cholera is growing in warmer seas. Dengue fever and Lyme disease are moving north. West Nile virus, never seen on this continent until seven years ago, has infected more than 21,000 people in the United States and Canada and killed more than 800.
But it is not just mosquito spreading tropical disease we have to fear, our other blood sucking friend the tick is also a growing and expanding problem.
The Season Of Ticks: Could Climate Change Worsen Lyme Disease?
In the moderate climate of the Northeastern United States, larval deer ticks feed in the late summer, long after the spring feeding of infected nymphs. This long gap between feeding times directly correlates to more cases of Lyme Disease reported in the Northeast, say the scientists.
"When there is a longer gap, the most persistent infections are more likely to survive," explains Durland Fish, Professor of Epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health and corresponding author of the study. "These persistent bacterial strains cause more severe disease in humans, leading more people to seek medical attention and resulting in more case reports."
But in the Midwest, where there are greater extremes of temperature, there is a shorter window of opportunity for tick feeding, and therefore a shorter gap between nymphal and larval feedings. Because of this, report the scientists, Midwestern wildlife and ticks are infected with less persistent strains, which correlates with fewer cases of Lyme Disease reported in the Midwest.
The clear implication of this research, say the researchers, is that, as the planet warms, the Upper Midwest could find itself in the same situation as the Northeast: longer gaps between nymphal and larval feeding, and therefore, stronger, more persistent strains of Lyme Disease.
These are just three examples of the impact that just insects are having on our health and economy because of global warming now. The cost of doing nothing is just to big and the consequences do directly effect you. So, when someone tries to tell you that global warming is a good thing, or the cost is too much in comparison to the dangers, or that the problems are years away, asking if they are willing to sacrifice their garden and pay higher prices at the market. Asking them if they are willing to bet their house on it. Asking them if they are will to risk their child's life.