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I have seen several reports indicating that Rep. [fill in the blank] is/is not going to support passage of health care reform over the past several days, but I haven't seen anyone actually aggregate them all in one place.  I tried to do just that.

Results below (all are Democrats unless otherwise indicated; click on the "XX" in the vote column for the hyperlink to the story describing the Representative's vote):

Representative Name Original Vote Now Leaning Yes Now Leaning No Now Undecided Now Definitely Yes Now Definitely No
John Adler (NJ) No XX
Jason Altmire (PA) No XX
Brian Baird (WA) No XX
John Boccieri (OH) XX
Rick Boucher (VA) No XX
Bart Gordon (TN) No XX
Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD) No XX
Larry Kissell (NC) No XX
Suzanne Kosmas (FL) No XX
Frank Kratovil (MD) No XX
Michael McMahon (NY) No XX
Walt Minnick (ID) No XX
Scott Murphy (NY) No XX
Glenn Nye (VA) No XX
John Tanner (TN) No XX
Michael Arcuri (NY) Yes XX
Dan Maffei (NY) Yes XX
Bill Owens (NY) Yes XX
Dan Lipinski (IL) Yes XX
Kurt Schraeder (OR) Yes XX
Shelley Berkley (NV) Yes XX
Bart Stupak (MI) Yes XX
Jerry Costello (IL) Yes XX
Kathy Dahlkemper (PA) Yes XX
Joe Donnelly (IN) Yes XX
Steve Dreihaus (OH) Yes XX
Brad Ellsworth (IN) Yes XX
Marcy Kaptur (OH) Yes XX
Paul Kanjorski (PA) Yes XX
Dale Kildee (MI) Yes XX
Jim Oberstar (MN) Yes XX
Charlie Wilson (OH) Yes XX
Solomon Ortiz (TX) Yes XX
Raul Grijalva (AZ) Yes XX
Joseph Cao (R-LA) Yes XX

The vote count is obviously very fluid, and some of the individuals listed above have sent mixed signals on their possible vote.  Where more than one position has been indicated, I have taken the most recent public position for inclusion in the table above.

Some of the votes above are also speculative.  The identity of the "Stupak 12," for example, has not been officially confirmed, but it is believed to include the individuals listed in the table in bold font (there are actually 14 names for the Stupak 12 listed, due to conflicting reports on the identity of the 12).

Obviously, the Stupak 12 votes (and perhaps others) are dependent on approval of final abortion language.

In summary, we have the following:

Former "No" Votes Now Voting:

Leaning Yes: 8

Leaning No: 2

Undecided: 3

Definitely Yes: 0

Definitely No: 2

Former "Yes" Votes Now Voting:

Leaning Yes: 0

Leaning No: 14

Undecided: 5

Definitely Yes: 0

Definitely No: 1

216 votes are now required to pass health care reform (Rep. Abercrombie, Rep. Wexler, and Rep. Murtha are not in the House anymore and were all former "yes" votes; Rep. Massa was a former "no" vote who is no longer in the House).

If the vote were held today, based on the table above, the vote would be (assuming all leaning vote for the direction in which they are leaning and all others vote as they voted for the original House bill):

Yes: 205

No: 218

Undecided: 8

Speaker Pelosi has her work cut out for her.  She will need to find 11 more votes to swing this in her favor.  That said, this is certainly doable.  She has 8 "undecided" votes to work with, plus 21 who have not expressed an opinion who previously voted "no" (see note below for the full list).  Furthermore, any compromise on abortion could sway several of the "Stupak 12," and it is even possible they may become convinced the current abortion language is sufficiently strong (see here for a good summary of why).  This fight is far from over.  Please call your representative today and push them to vote "yes" for health care reform.

NOTE: Several original "no" votes have not expressed an indication on how they will vote this time.  Those Representatives are: Barrow (GA), Boren (OK), Boyd (FL), Bright (AL), Chandler (KY), Childers (MS), Davis (AL), Davis (TN), Edwards (TX), Griffith (AL), Kucinich (OH), Marshall (GA), Markley (CO), Matheson (UT), McIntyre (NC), Peterson (MN), Ross (AR), Shuler (NC), Skelton (MO), Taylor (MS), and Teague (NM) (21 total).

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Originally posted to thefourthbranch on Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 09:21 AM PST.

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