The Senate Parliamentarian recently ruled that the House must vote on and pass the health care bill that already received 60 votes in the Senate, and then the bill must be signed into law by the President before the reconciliation process can begin. Republicans and commentators have called this ruling a victory for those who oppose health care reform. But, the truth is quite the opposite. In fact, the Parliamentarian's ruling on reconciliation may very well erase any advantage that the Republicans had going into the midterm elections.
I know a process oriented diary isn't the sexiest of topics. But, the Parliamentarian's recent ruling may actually turn the political tide the Dems have been fighting against this last year. The GOP leadership have been working as hard as they can to scare House Democrats into voting against the Senate bill. First, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., offered his insincere poltical advice.
"House Democrats will have to decide whether they want to trust the Senate to fix their political problems. They will be voting, when they pass the Senate bill, to endorse the Cornhusker Kickback, the Louisiana Purchase, the Gator-aid, the closed-door deal, the special deal for the unions, which may or may not bother any Democrats, I don't know," McConnell said.
The irony is that if House Dems pass the Senate bill, it is the Republicans that will be implicitly endorsing many of those very provisions if they vote against the reconciliation bill.
Just yesterday, House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, vowed that all Republicans will campaign this year on repealing health care, if it passes. (Democrats should keep in mind what an incredibly ineffective leader Boehner's been, losing every single vote Pelosi has brought to the floor.)
But, take heart Democrats. In stark contrast to what they are saying, the real reason McConnell and Boehner are spinning and stumping so furiously is simple. They know that as a result of the Parliamentarian's ruling, if the House passes the Senate bill, Republilcan senators and congressmen will be forced to make a politically impossible vote, leaving them in a no-win situation.
Follow me here. McConnell is right about one thing. House Democrats will be forced to vote on the Senate bill, warts and all, and they'll have to trust Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., to follow through on the fixes after the president signs the bill into law. But, that's the key. Once the President signs the bill, it becomes law with everything in it that the Republicans have criticized so vehemently, such as the Cornhusker kickback. The reconciliation bill would then eliminate the Cornhusker kickback and many other problem areas of the bill.
Reid has to recognize this golden opportunity and will undoubtedly bring the reconciliation bill to a vote. In doing so, Republicans will need to make an impossible decision. If they keep a unified front against the president and vote against the reconciliation bill, they will be voting for, among other things, the Cornhusker kickback remaining in the bill, the perpetuation of the Medicare donut hole, and letting insurance companies continue to raise rates without limitations. Clearly, a difficult vote to defend for Republicans who have been critical of those things in the past.
On the other hand, if Republicans vote for the reconciliation bill (mark my words, some will), then they can hardly run on repealing a bill that they ultimately voted for. While voting "yes" on the bill that makes improvements to a law that you're against can be completely intellectually consistent, it is also a vote that, politically, is next to impossible to defend. Don't believe me. Just ask Sen. John Kerry.
So, take heart House Dems and, at least temporarily, put aside any problems you have with the Senate bill and pass the thing. Defending whatever vote they make on the reconciliation bill will tie the Republicans in knots.
I know many of us would prefer single-payer or a public option or better language on how we cover illegal immigrants or different language on abortion. But, this may be the only chance we have to pass meaningful health insurance reform that covers millions of Americans. If the bill goes down, it may be decades before we get another shot. And keep in mind when you vote, the Republicans will be faced with a political conundrum the like of which I can't remember. It just warms your heart. Doesn't it?