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I think that it goes without saying that the lockstep Republicans who voted with their party in yesterday's health care vote and who represent swing or blue (or even purple) districts, should all be heavily targeted for defeat this fall. Since I don't know as much about their districts as some here, I am asking, which of these Repugs can we beat in the fall? Suggestions? Opinions?

Here is the list of these locksteppers

Judy Biggert           IL-13
Brian Bilbray           CA-50
Mary Bono Mack          CA-45
Ken Calvert           CA-44
Dave Camp           MI-4
John Campbell           CA-48
Michael Castle*         DE-AL
Charles Dent           PA-15
David Dreier           CA-26
Randy Forbes           VA-4
Elton Gallegly          CA-24
Jim Gerlach           PA-6
Mark Kirk*              IL-10
Leonard Lance           NJ-7
Tom Latham           IA-4
Frank LoBiondo          NJ-2
Daniel Lungren          CA-3
Donald Manzullo         IL-16
Thaddeus McCotter       MI-11
Howard "Buck" McKeon CA-25
Erik Paulsen           MN-3
Thomas Petri           WI-6
David Reichert          WA-8
Mike Rogers           MI-8
Peter Roskam           IL-6
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen FL-18
Paul Ryan           WI-1
Lee Terry           NE-2
Patrick Tiberi          OH-12
Fred Upton           MI-6
Frank Wolf           VA-10
Bill Young           FL-10

These individuals all represent districts that voted for Obama in 2008. While some are not seeking reelection and some might be a bit tough to beat because of name recognition, I am assuming that at least some of them are beatible. I am also assuming, along with David Frum, that we got a substantial boost yesterday and that the GOP hasn't fully processed the hit that they have taken.

Originally posted to Randian on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 06:59 AM PDT.


Who are we most likely to beat in 2010?

11%7 votes
11%7 votes
18%11 votes
0%0 votes
1%1 votes
1%1 votes
8%5 votes
1%1 votes
1%1 votes
8%5 votes
1%1 votes
16%10 votes
8%5 votes
3%2 votes
6%4 votes

| 61 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

    •  From NY the 2 Republicans who voted 'no' (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      are Christopher Lee, (NY-26) and Peter King (NY-3)

      Not sure we can get King, since we'll be spending time defending Dems in red leaning districts that voted yes, but we might be able to pick off Chris Lee (who is one of the richest men in the House).

  •  very very important - turn the discussio (16+ / 0-)

    about the minority that may lose more seats because of their NO to EVERYTHING strategy.

    This was a partician bill - because Republicans choose to be ubber partician.

    Takin it to the streets....Doobie Brothers

    by totallynext on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:01:05 AM PDT

  •  I agree this is very important to do (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Randian, Shhs, jgnyc

    I don't know who Tiberi is.
    Yes, Ohio went for Obama but remember we are kinda still more purple. Especially considering the Minority leader comes from Cinn (Boehner). People here outside the cities are more conservative and of course we have been paying for that with an exodus of people and jobs. Don't know what our Repub representation has gotten us since I just moved back here in time for the '08 election.

    To paraphrase Warren Ballentine: "We may have come here in separate boats but we're in the same one now"

    by OHknighty on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:05:24 AM PDT

    •  I live in his district. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tiponeill, Cory Bantic, Randian, jgnyc

      I see a lot of people who don't vote.  The youngish 30 and 20 somethings that live in hundreds of apartment buildings, don't vote. He made his district go through Delaware county to get the rural vote, and then it splits Old Town East and other areas w/a lot of minorities.  But it is this vast area of suburbs (suburbs but not suburbia) that we need to focus on.  He could be out on his ass if only people voted.

      GOP = Godless opposition party We Hassle to make America a Vassal (state)

      by Shhs on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:09:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Pat will be out after the next census (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      but I don't want to wait that long.  Central Ohio is one of the only places in Ohio where the population is going up.  Also, the city trend is toward more diversity.

      GOP = Godless opposition party We Hassle to make America a Vassal (state)

      by Shhs on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:10:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Every Year, Things Get Closer For (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cory Bantic, greengemini

    Brian Bilbray's district. It's been blueing. Now a Republican needs to be in actual Orange County to be safe on the Socal Coast.

    I miss Johnny Rook and Ormond Otvos.

    by Nulwee on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:06:01 AM PDT

  •  Tipped and rec'd (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Randian, cherry ghost, jgnyc

    for the discussion.  It's time to turn the narrative away from "Who gets hurt voting yes on the bill," to the reality that a lot of elected officials voted against the interests of their constituents for cheap political reasons.  Make them pay.  Let's blow away expectations now and win this year.  

    You plant ice you're gonna harvest wind

    by Sun dog on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:06:11 AM PDT

    •  Indeed, I am more interested at the moment (5+ / 0-)

      in punishing craven behavior by empty suit Republicans like Mary Bono and David Drier than in recriminating over battles within our party. And I am also savoring the feeling of victory today, and feeling like it's going to give us some momentum going into the fall. :-)

      Randian for me means "Prince Randian" from the 1930s horror classic Freaks and is not a reference to libertarianism.

      by Randian on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:09:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wait? What? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Shhs, annominous

    Some Republicans aren't running for re-election?  I can't believe it.  

    I thought that it was only Democrats who weren't up for re-election.  

    If Dailykos is a book, I'm the doodles in the margins.

    by otto on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:08:54 AM PDT

  •  great ideas here and a great narrative: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Randian, Shhs

    I wonder why this has not been heard in the "liberal media"??

  •  Depends on the district leaning... (3+ / 0-)

    However these Republicans in R+3 to D+x districts should have a solid general challenge awaiting them.

    Alexi Giannoulias and Chris Coons should be blasting out a press release highlighting the "nay" vote of Kirk and Castle respectively.  

    Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

    by Jonze on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:14:11 AM PDT

  •  RE: Mark Kirk (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow, Randian

    Anyone here in Illinois, please call his office(s) and tell them he has lost your vote for Senate (even though he probably never had it).  It's fun messing with his feeble mind.

    Washington, DC Phone: (202) 225-4835
    Northbrook Office Phone: ( 847) 940-0202
    Waukegan OfficePhone: (847) 662-0101

    (And if you've ever lived in Illinois -- or even driven through it or landed at an airport in the state, please feel free to call as well.)

    No woman can call herself free who does not own and control her body. ~ Margaret Sanger

    by madame defarge on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:22:08 AM PDT

  •  I don't know who we are most likely to beat, but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I know where my money is going and that is to defeat Ileana Ros-Lehtinen,
    one of the biggest "whores" in the Republican congressional caucas.
    And she sells herself cheap, to the highest corporate bidder.

    I live in West Palm Beach but I will be spending mucho time in Miami....

    Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. - Martin Luther King, Jr.

    by Outraged Mom on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:24:37 AM PDT

    •  I agree and I thank you for this (0+ / 0-)

      I've always groaned whenever I'd see her shrill, idiotic act on a cable news show, generally shilling for the GOP party line, with principles, facts, and logic thrown out the window. I am assuming that the only way she manages to keep getting re-elected is by playing the same old, tired, Fidel Castro card, though it is also my understanding that the voting demographic for whom such a strategy most resonates are getting up there in age. Thus, she should be heavily targeted for defeat. Glad to know you will be on this campaign.

      Randian for me means "Prince Randian" from the 1930s horror classic Freaks and is not a reference to libertarianism.

      by Randian on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:29:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Fifteen years ago, she was unbeatable... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, Randian

        but there are major changes in her demographics and big cracks in her armor....
        Happy to do this for all of us!  My 27 year old son and his wife, who live in Miami, will be instrumental in leading the effort...

        Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. - Martin Luther King, Jr.

        by Outraged Mom on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 08:32:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I hope that you will diary on this here (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          so as to get some further support for this effort from the Kos community.

          Randian for me means "Prince Randian" from the 1930s horror classic Freaks and is not a reference to libertarianism.

          by Randian on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 08:41:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Unless they are retiring (0+ / 0-)

    they are ALL seeking reelection

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White

    by zenbassoon on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:26:39 AM PDT

  •  What is worse than a lock-step Repug? (0+ / 0-)

    A Democrat in a Blue State voting no!

    Lipinski (IL-03)


    "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less."

    by Eman on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:30:56 AM PDT

  •  Paulson in MN-03 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Randian

    is a freshman Republican so would be vulnerable anyway just on that basis. He won the seat held by Jim Ramstad for years when Ramstad retired. The district is in the habit of voting R because of Ramstad's long tenure so that helped Paulson the first time around.

    The wrinkle here is Ramstad was one of the last real moderate Republicans left out there, the kind you could deal with, who you could debate and argue with, and who even if his bill went through and yours didn't, it was a reasonable, decent bill. A classic, brown shoe, cautious but good-willed man really believing in serving the public, and the kind of Republican who really feels like the Party has left him the last 10 years while it has sailed out to the Islands of Wingnuttia.

    Paulson is sharply more conservative than this and ran a bit of a stealth campaign, trying to inherit the Ramstad mantle, and succeeded. This vote may be a real eye-opener for a ton of voters in the MN-03 who now find how NOT Ramstad Paulson is. It has an ex-urbian, McMansion streak to it, so they will like this side of Erik, but I wager more will be repelled. A D state senator from the area is making noises about running but nothing catching fire so far. Nonetheless Paulson could be weaker than he looks.


    "God has given wine to gladden the hearts of people." Psalm 104:15

    by WineRev on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 07:55:15 AM PDT

  •  Vern Ehlers (R-Grand Rapids) not on list (0+ / 0-)
  •  Biggert (0+ / 0-)

    You'll never get her.

    Her district, although very close to Blue Chicago is about as winger as you get.

    She is a thorn in the side of progressives, but she's pretty well entrenched.

    Not all conservatives are paranoid, but all paranoids are conservative

    by DrWolfy on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 10:17:16 AM PDT

  •  The IL folks are either downstate (0+ / 0-)

    or ring counties.  These are safe red zones in IL.

    Really, it's Chicago that makes IL blue.

    Not all conservatives are paranoid, but all paranoids are conservative

    by DrWolfy on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 10:25:24 AM PDT

    •  You could knock off a downstater (0+ / 0-)

      Between Champaign, Bloomington, and Charleston, you could build an IL-15 that doesn't elect Johnson.  There are other arrangements for other districts.

      Yes, Effingham is a lost cause, voting 67% for McCain.  Those are my relatives.  But there are Democrats downstate.

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 06:32:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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