Health care, and rightfully so, has knocked all dispatches from the campaign trail off of the front pages from coast-to-coast. That doesn't mean, however, that there hasn't been some headlines worth perusing over the last two days, as well as some data to munch on.
THE U.S. SENATE
NY-Sen: New York GOP Recruiting Failure #192
The Republican Party in the Empire State is smarting yet again, as another fairly prominent GOP prospect fell by the wayside today in the person of former Bush administration spokesman Dan Senor. According to reports over the past couple of weeks, Senor had seemed almost certain to launch into a challenge to appointed incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand. This leaves former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman, former Congressman Joe DioGuardi, and former Wall Street exec David Malpass as the leaders of the GOP pack.
OH-Sen: Democrats in A Toss Up To Pick Up Voinovich Seat
A new PPP poll (PDF file) out this week suggests that the Democrats have a fighting chance of a pick-up in Ohio, where GOP incumbent George Voinovich is retiring. His potential GOP successor, former Congressman and Bush official Rob Portman, is in a dead heat with Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (38-37), and holds only a slight lead over Lt. Governor Lee Fisher (41-36). The potential for game changers in this race is still awfully high--less than half of the voters polled have a firm opinion about ANY of the main candidates in the field.
PA-Sen: F&M Poll Finds A Fluid Electorate in Keystone State
In the pantheon of political pollsters, few in the game do a better job of keeping voters on the fence better than Pennsylvania specialists Franklin and Marshall, whose undecideds are so high you almost have to wonder if their questions aren't open ended. For what it is worth, F&M polls the Senate race, and finds over half of the voters undecided in the huge upcoming Democratic primary (Senator Arlen Specter leads Joe Sestak 32-12 among those who have made up their minds). In the general, it is only slightly more decisive, as Republican Pat Toomey leads Specter 33-29, while leading Sestak 27-19.
WI-Sen: PPP Poll Shows Senate Race No Gimme For Thompson
The GOP has, for months, been working hard to recruit former Governor Tommy Thompson into the Senate race, with the most recent example being a Thompson-allied GOP interest group dutifully polling the race and showing that Thompson leads incumbent Democratic Senator Russ Feingold. PPP has now added their voice to the polling puzzle in the state of Wisconsin, and they come to a slightly different conclusion (PDF file). They have Feingold narrowly leading Thompson (47-44). Most polls, even those showing a Thompson lead, have shown tight margins such as this. As with other pollsters, PPP has Feingold up handily on the actually declared GOP candidates: Terrence Wall (48-34) and Dave Westlake (48-31).
THE U.S. HOUSE
SD-AL: Did Herseth-Sandlin's HCR Vote Buy Her A Primary?
A day or two after former Obama staffer Steve Hildebrand decided to forgo a primary challenge to Democratic health care reform opponent Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, it looks like another Democrat is planning to make a go of it. Physician Kevin Weiland is the potential Democratic candidate, and there is apparently a petition signing frenzy afoot.
VT-AL: New GOP Candidate Already Making Headlines...Bad Ones
During the Monday edition of the Wrap, readers were introduced to Keith Stern, who declared as a Republican challenger to sophomore Democratic Rep. Peter Welch in Vermont. Stern's previous foray into electoral politics was notching 0.3% of the vote as an Indie candidate in 2006. Well, Stern may or may not know his own strength/weakness, apparently. Suffice it to say, this is not how you want to launch your candidacy. In an AP report marking his entrance into the race, Stern seems to intimate that he would be willing to stand down if someone more electable made the race. Stern immediately took to his own campaign website, to point out, and this is a direct quote, that "this is in no way what I said. The AP news miss quoted me."
Miss quoted??
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AZ-Gov: Is Bombastic GOP Sheriff Re-Thinking Statewide Bid?
While Rasmussen polls the myriad of players in the Arizona Governor's race (see the Ras-a-Palooza section below), there might be another player about to enter the fray: controversial Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. CQ speculates openly about a potential Republican gubernatorial bid for the seventy-something Arpaio, who is sitting on more than $2 million in his campaign warchest.
MD-Gov: Ehrlich To Make Rematch Official Next Month
Granted, there might have only been about seven people left in the state of Maryland who didn't see this coming: former GOP Governor Bob Ehrlich will apparently will get off the dime next month and announce his bid for Governor. It sets up a rematch of the contest in 2006 that sent Ehrlich into early retirement. In that matchup, Democrat Martin O'Malley defeated Ehrlich by seven points. Recent polls have been in roughly the same range.
OH-Gov: PPP Bearish on the Incumbent in Buckeye State Battle
Democrats eager to hang onto the governorship of Ohio took heart a few weeks back when a Quinnipiac poll in the state seemed to show some modicum of recovery for embattled Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland. PPP throws some cold water on that, with a new poll showing former GOP Congressman John Kasich leading Strickland by five percentage points (42-37). Kasich is still relatively unknown, with only about half of the electorate registering an opinion. This could be good for the GOP (he has room to grow), or very bad for the GOP (there is still room for Strickland to define him).
PA-Gov: Undecided Big Winner In Primaries (So Says F&M)
If you thought the Senate numbers from the new Franklin and Marshall poll were a bit indecisive, check out these gubernatorial primary numbers. On the GOP side, nearly 70% of voters are allegedly undecided (state AG Tom Corbett leads state legislator Sam Rohrer 28-4 among those off of the fence). On the Democratic side, undecided is lapping the field, as well. 73% of voters are undecided there, according to F&M. If it matters, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato leads with 11% of the vote.
WI-Gov: GOP Has Narrow Edge, According to PPP
The same PPP poll that gave Democrat Russ Feingold a slight edge in his re-election bid also gave the pair of potential GOP candidates a slight edge over likely Democratic nominee Tom Barrett. In a bit of a surprise, PPP is the first poll (PDF file) to show former Congressman Mark Neumann (43-38) doing slightly better than Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (42-39) against the Democrat.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Let me throw down a little gauntlet here, based on the freshest pile of Ras data. I will make a $100 contribution to the (non-political) charity of Scott Rasmussen's choice if John Hostettler either meets or exceeds the pointspread laid down by the RR team in this latest poll. In other news, Rasmussen shovels a little more dirt on Florida Governor Charlie Crist, and finds startlingly positive results for the GOP (I know, I know...) in Arizona, Iowa North Carolina, and Vermont.
If you really have a hankering for more Ras in your life, you can always click here.
AZ-Gov: Buz Mills (R) 43%, Terry Goddard (D) 37%
AZ-Gov: Dean Martin (R) 43%, Terry Goddard (D) 38%
AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 42%, John Munger (R) 36%
AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 45%, Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 36%
FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) 48%, Kendrick Meek (D) 34%
FL-Sen: Gov. Charlie Crist (R) 45%, Kendrick Meek (D) 34%
FL-Sen (R): Marco Rubio 56%, Gov. Charlie Crist 34%
IN-Sen: John Hostettler (R) 50%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 32%
IN-Sen: Dan Coats (R) 49%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%
IN-Sen: Marlin Stutzman (R) 41%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%
IA-Gov: Terry Branstad (R) 52%, Gov. Chet Culver (D) 36%
IA-Gov: Bob VanderPlatts (R) 42%, Gov. Chet Culver (D) 40%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 51%, Elaine Marshall (D) 35%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 51%, Cal Cunningham (D) 32%
VT-Gov: Brian Dubie (R) 46%, Deb Markowitz (D) 39%
VT-Gov: Brian Dubie (R) 48%, Doug Racine (D) 35%
VT-Gov: Brian Dubie (R) 48%, Susan Bartlett (D) 35%
VT-Gov: Brian Dubie (R) 51%, Peter Shumlin (D) 33%
VT-Gov: Brian Dubie (R) 51%, Matt Dunne (D) 29%