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All the talk about the 2012 Presidential race is focused on who the Republicans will run against Obama. Much of speculation is focused on people who will most certainly not be running for office. But, it did make me start thinking "What would the final ticket look like?" I studied lots of game theory while at Iowa, so it was natural for me.

This thought exercise lead me to one conclusion, something not done successfully since the 1944 election, Obama will have a new Vice President on his ticket. I think it is interesting, especially with all the references to Truman in the health reform aftermath. So join me across the void as I explain why I came to this conclusion, and who might be on that ticket.

Both Joe Biden and Barack Obama have a grasp of history and the importance of certain campaign decisions. I think that both of them will come to the same conclusion about Biden not being on the ticket for three reasons:

  1. Joe Biden will be 70 shortly after election day and the election of Obama showed the Boomers are on their way out in the executive.
  1. If Obama is re-elected, the Vice President will be in a strong position for the 2016 election.
  1. Biden was originally brought in to be a steady hand for the new kid, something an incumbent President won't need.

The second point is the most important one, winning three successive elections gives us to restore the ability of government to function and regulate, much like during the New Deal.

Biden as Secretary of State?
Hillary Clinton has all but said she will not be the Secretary of State in a second Obama term. Public service is in Biden's blood, so I don't see him retiring. Vice President is a similar role in foreign policy, so I see him here...or maybe at the UN.

First woman Vice President?
I think the most likely candidate is a woman. Like I said earlier he has a grasp of history. Plus, putting a woman on the ticket still lets him play the Change you can believe in card No, I don't think it will be Hillary, after all she would be 65. I see her as either at the UN, or helping Bill with their foundation. Pelosi would be another choice, but again age is a factor, she would be 72. In addition, Obama would like a strong ally/advocate in the House and I am not sure of her skills as an executive. So who does that leave (other than the women in the Cabinet).

Sebelius and Napolitano would be great candidates, as well as some of the other female governors, but I think we should look at the Senate and at early supporters/advocates in Obama's candidacy. As broken as the Senate is, it is still the crucible for American politicans, this wont be changing any time soon. So here is my list:

1. Maria Cantwell
She has been in office since 2001 and she is a damn good speaker. Her speech at the DNC in 2008 was impressive. She also would be 54, a great position for a run in 2016. The environment is one of her core issues, and I think after the recession that will be the focus of the Obama administration.
2. Amy Klobuchar
Another strong speaker who has been in office since 2007. She has an education background similar to Obama (Yale then Chicago). She also had a good working relationship with Obama in the senate and supported him in March 2008.
3. Debbie Wasserman Schultz
One of the contenders from the house, she would be great on the attack, allowing Obama to stay above the fray. At 46 in 2012, she is the youngest mentioned by a bunch. But, she has the same "overachieving youngster" feel as Obama, after all she has been in the House since 2005.
4. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
My wild card on the list. She is a Blue Dog, but I suspect some that is keeping her seat in South Dakota, since she doesn't talk like a Blue Dog. I wouldn't count her out for one big reason. She won a special election in 2004 as a 34 year old unmarried woman I think if she moves left and embraces this McGovern Day person, she could be viable. After all she's a 50 state strategy person.

There are other women who I think could be contenders, like Kay Hagan, but they are either too inexperienced or more importantly too boring.

Please add your thoughts/rebuttals. And before you ask, I didn't game out any men because the bench is so deep, so it's pointless.

Update 4:40pm Central There has been a lot of discussion about Sandlin, she's on our side 93.2 percent of the time. I'm not saying it makes her likely, but she does seem to be voting her constituents in Very conservative South Dakota, more than anything else.

But what's with no mention of Cantwell?

Originally posted to pleasedontbefake on Thu Mar 25, 2010 at 02:22 PM PDT.

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