Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/ 22-24. Likely Voters. Margin of Error 4%. (No trend lines)
U.S. SENATE--WISCONSIN
Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 48
Tommy Thompson (R) 44
Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 52
Terrence Wall (R) 37
Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 54
Dave Westlake (R) 36
Rumors vary almost by the day as to whether or not Thompson is going to make the race. A few weeks ago, it appeared inevitable. Then, someone in his alleged inner circle put the odds at 50/50. Given his near-universal name recognition and his deep connections in the state and national GOP, he presumably has the luxury of waiting. What this poll (and other recent contemporary polls in the state) seem to indicate, however, as that this race would not be a walk in the park for the former Governor.
The GOP is praying for a Thompson Senate bid, and this survey shows why: neither declared Republicans in the race (developer Terrence Wall or businessman Dave Westlake) is within striking distance of the three-term incumbent. Feingold leads them both by double-digit margins and above the 50% "safe" threshold for an incumbent.
In terms of voter favorabilities, the incumbent has a 53/41 favorability rating, while Thompson sports a nearly identical 53/42 spread. Interestingly, both draw about 10% of the opposing party over to their side. Feingold's lead is built on a narrow lead among Independents.
Westlake and Wall are less well-known (their name recognition languishes in the sixties), but even among those that know them, their favorabilities are very mixed.
Interestingly, as this poll was conducted in the wake of the HCR passage, President Obama's favorabilities in the state are actually pretty decent (54/41). This puts Obama between the other statewide elected Democrats, as Senator Herb Kohl does slightly better (55/38), while outgoing Governor Jim Doyle does decidedly worse (44/50).