Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/29-31. Likely Voters. Margin of Error 4%. (No trend lines)
U.S. SENATE--ARIZONA--REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Sen. John McCain 52
J.D. Hayworth 37
While other pollsters have had former Congressman and renowned right-wing blowhard J.D. Hayworth within single digits of incumbent Senator John McCain, the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll in the Grand Canyon State has McCain with a solid, but not overwhelming, lead over the insurgent challenger.
Despite the conventional wisdom that McCain could be vulnerable to an intra-party challenge, we find that McCain has a fairly solid level of favorability among Republicans. His current favorability among GOP voters stands at 76%, with only 19% expressing disapproval.
Hayworth, meanwhile, may well have some upside in the GOP primary, as he is still unknown to about a quarter of the electorate. And it is worth noting that among Republicans, he is well liked (a 61/16 favorability spread).
However, his upside might be limited to a GOP primary. In a general election, he is clearly a greater liability for the GOP. Hayworth is much less popular among both Democratic and Independent voters, and sports an net negative favorability (34/42) among all voters, joining only President Obama (41/55) and incumbent GOP Governor Jan Brewer (39/54) in minus territory.
On the general election front, we tested two fairly well-known but undeclared Democrats (former Governor Bruce Babbitt and Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords). We also tested the two declared Democrats (Rodney Glassman and Nan Stockholm Walden), who are much less well-known. The two declared candidates are unknown to the majority of the electorate, although both clearly have substantial upside (Glassman, for example, already does as well, or better, than Congresswoman Giffords).
The bottom line? The Democrats become competitive, if Hayworth somehow manages to score a victory in the GOP primary:
U.S. SENATE--ARIZONA--GENERAL ELECTION
Sen. John McCain (R) 48
Bruce Babbitt (D) 42
Sen. John McCain (R) 53
Gabrielle Giffords (D) 34
Sen. John McCain (R) 52
Rodney Glassman (D) 33
Sen. John McCain (R) 57
Nan Stockholm Walden (D) 21
J.D. Hayworth (R) 43
Bruce Babbitt (D) 42
J.D. Hayworth (R) 49
Gabrielle Giffords (D) 36
J.D. Hayworth (R) 48
Rodney Glassman (D) 37
J.D. Hayworth (R) 53
Nan Stockholm Walden (D) 22
For this poll, we also tested a new question about the recently passed health care reform package. Would voters prefer a candidate who supports the reform package, or a candidate who would work to repeal it? In ancestrally conservative state of Arizona, which is also one of the most skewed states demographically when looking at age, "repeal" advocates lead supporters by a relatively narrow margin (44-39).