Actually, a reasonably quiet weekend for the Wrap. Even the Ras-a-Palooza dies down a little bit, only polling a handful of states (including some awfully curious ones...Wyoming and Idaho, Ras?!).
THE U.S. SENATE
AL-Sen: Shelby Almost Certainly Safe in November, Says PPP
PPP, after releasing their numbers on the potentially competitive race for Governor in Alabama, add some data on a race that almost certainly not going to be competitive. When paired against the always formidable "generic Democrat", Shelby holds a 55-37 lead. For what it's worth, that is likely as close as it'll get: Shelby is sitting on eight figures (he is perennially one of the Senate leaders in cash-on-hand), with over sixteen million in the kitty. Furthermore, while he drew opposition from two Democrats and one tea-bagger Republican, none seem to have the ability to compete financially with Shelby.
FL-Sen: Revenge Is A Dish Best Served Cold
It took him over two years, but former NYC Mayor and failed presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani has finally exacted a pound of flesh from Florida Governor Charlie Crist. You might recall that in 2008, when Giuliani made the bizarre and ill-fated decision to go all-in on a victory in the Florida primary in late January, Crist spurned him in favor of McCain, who went on to win the primary and move into front-runner status for the GOP nomination. Then, Crist was a political colossus, the popular Governor of the most coveted swing state in the Union. Today, he is a wounded politico running in second place for the GOP Senate nomination. And who will be coming in next week to campaign for the frontrunner, former state House speaker Marco Rubio? None other than Rudy Giuliani.
NY-Sen: GOP--We Love the '90s (Candidate Edition)
Wow...so it appears that the New York Republican Party is really digging deep into the Rolodex in order to find someone...anyone...to run against appointed incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. The latest name to surface is none other than Bill Weld, who has not held elective office since 1997, and was last seen (politically speaking) endorsing Barack Obama for President a few weeks before Election Day, 2008. That ought to get the teabaggers fired up and ready to go.
Also, as a side observation, the overtures to Weld are a pretty compelling piece of evidence that despite the incessant hopes of Republicans (and pollsters, who always manage to work his name into the script), George Pataki is not likely to make a bid.
SD-Sen: Thune Given A Free Ride In November
With rumors circulating that John Thune might be interested in a 2012 White House bid, the freshman Republican Senator removed one potential obstacle to considering such a bid. He no longer has to worry about waging a competitive re-election bid in November. Democrats failed to find a candidate to square off with Thune, who narrowly defeated Tom Daschle in 2004 but has enjoyed fairly decent favorability numbers in his first term. There is still some chance that an Independent could challenge him in November, as that filing deadline comes later in the year.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AL-03: Bitter Disappointment as Segall Stands Down at Last Second
This one is painful on a couple of levels: on Friday, Alabama Democrat Josh Segall announced that he would not be a candidate for Congress this year. At any time, this would have been a killer--Segall gave incumbent Republican Mike Rogers all he could handle in 2008, holding the incumbent to a single-digit win. But Segall made the announcement within hours of the filing deadline, which left Democrats to scramble. According to a comment at Left In Alabama, another Democrat (Steve Segrist) filed before the deadline.
This was one of three bits of bad news emanating from Alabama on Friday. Not only did the Segall news break, but the Democrats also had a last minute reversal in AL-01, leaving Republican Jo Bonner without a Democratic challenger in the Fall. Also, at the state legislative level, the Democratic caucus lost a member, as state senator Jim Preuitt left the party and filed for re-election as a Republican.
AR-02: GOP Power Struggle Emerging in Little Rock?
Democrats worried about a perilous hold in Arkansas, where Vic Snyder is retiring after seven terms, might be catching a significant break. Former Arkansas Governor and once-and-future WH aspirant Mike Huckabee bucked the seeming wishes of the national GOP, endorsing Scott Wallace in his primary bid against establishment Republican choice Tim Griffin. The more these two can bludgeon one another, the better it will be for Democrats, who have their own five-candidate primary to contend with.
NY-29: Massa Successor Will Wait Until November, Says Governor
An interesting decision out of the Empire State, one with some implications for 2010: Governor David Paterson, citing cost concerns, announced that there will not be a special election to replace Democratic Rep. Eric Massa, who resigned earlier this year. Clearly, this saves the Democrats a potentially problematic special election in what is, at best, swing territory. However, it also means that the citizens of the 29th district will go without representation in the "People's House" for more than half a year.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
PA-Gov: Candidates Turn Over Fundraising Cards
Interesting money headlines out of the Keystone State, where it looks like it is early money vs. late money on the Democratic side. Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato got doubled up by Philly-area state Senator Anthony Williams. Williams is claiming a $2 million haul since the beginning of the year, as opposed to just under a million for Onorato. Onorato, however, is sitting on over $6.7 million on hand, which gives him a nearly four-to-one edge over Williams, who got into the race a few months back. Meanwhile, GOP frontrunner Tom Corbett, the state's Attorney General, has raised $1.7 million since the start of the year.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Apparently, with the exception of their new Ohio numbers (and some surprisingly close numbers out of Alabama), Rasmussen decided to make sure that the most ruby-red states in the Union have remained so. In a shocker, they still are.
Actually, the Alabama numbers are a little shocking, showing the Dems in far better position than was posited by the crew over at PPP earlier in the week. In a sign that corroborated PPP's findings, however, "10 Commandments Judge" Roy Moore does far worse for the GOP than any other option (speaking of options, polling involving Republican Kay Ivey has been omitted, since she left the race this week).
As always, if you'd like more details, you can go to the House of Ras directly.
AL-Gov: Bradley Byrne (R) 43%, Ron Sparks (D) 35%
AL-Gov: Tim James (R) 38%, Ron Sparks (D) 34%
AL-Gov: Ron Sparks (D) 40%, Roy Moore (R) 35%
AL-Gov: Bradley Byrne (R) 50%, Artur Davis (D) 33%
AL-Gov: Tim James (R) 49%, Artur Davis (D) 35%
AL-Gov: Artur Davis (D) 44%, Roy Moore (R) 40%
AL-Sen: Sen. Dick Shelby (R) 59%, William Barnes (D) 32%
ID-Gov: Gov. Butch Otter (R) 60%, Keith Allred (D) 28%
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 46%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 45%
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 43%, Lee Fisher (D) 38%
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 45%, Jennifer Brunner (D) 38%
WY-Gov: Ron Micheli (R) 45%, Mike Massie (D) 23%
WY-Gov: Matt Mead (R) 43%, Mike Massie (D) 25%
WY-Gov: Rita Meyer (R) 43%, Mike Massie (D) 26%
WY-Gov: Colin Simpson (R) 41%, Mike Massie (D) 26%