Well, do we need another jobs stimulus? That is a question every Congressional and wanna-be Congressional Democrat should be asking right now, because their political lives may depend on the answer. How one answers this question basically boils down to two schools of thought.
- Optimistic - The present economy is starting to, and will continue to create jobs through the Fall of 2010 without further assistance. So additional stimulus would be pointless and only serve to alienate voters concerned about the Federal deficit.
- Pessimistic - The present economy is starting to create jobs, but without additional stimulus it is unlikely that there will be a noticeable reduction in unemployment before Fall 2010, and we could see an increase (double-dip scenario), giving voters little reason to vote for Democrats.
I will explore both schools of thought and give you my opinion after the jump /\
It probably goes without argument that jobs will be one of the key issues that will determine the outcome of the 2010 elections. Some might even consider it to be the definitive issue of the mid-terms. If the voters perceive the job picture as improving and believe that it will continue to improve if we stay on this course, Democrats could do remarkably well in November (hold or dare I say it, pick up seats). However, if the voters do not perceive the job picture as markedly improving, or that it is or could get worse, November could be an electoral blood bath for Democrats. So do the Dems. need to put together a substantial jobs package now to aim for the former and avoid the latter outcome in November? Here are the two schools of thought on this matter:
- No Further Jobs Stimulus - This school of thought is based on the theory that the job market will continue to improve, and that by late summer early fall, voters will see a marked improvement in unemployment figures and have an optimistic employment view as they go to the polls. There are some unspent funds from Stimulus I that still have to impact the jobs market, and these in combination with some of the recently passed mini-jobs bills, will continue to stimulate job growth through 2010, so a large Simulus II bill is unnecessary. Furthermore, another large stimulus would mean another increase in the deficit. Such a deficit increase could be politically dangerous for Democrats, allowing Republicans to label them as out-of-control spenders of your childrens tax dollars, which may have some traction with Independent voters concerned about the deficit.
- Further Jobs Stimulus - This school of thought is based on the theory that without significant additional stimulus, job growth before November will be tepid at best, and it will be difficult for many Independent voters to see a positive outlook which would keep them from changing to Republicans. Also, there are some signs that "staying the course" with no additional stimulus could result in a second dip in the employment numbers. This is due to the fact that as the Stimulus I funds run out, States, Schools and localities who have used these funds to avoid layoffs will now be forced to cut workers. This is already happening. Several States are now facing 2010 budget crisis which are forcing them to consider substantial layoffs and schools who used the stimulus funds to retaiun teachers are now planning to lay them off.
For me, to sit back and hope that the stimulus provided to date will be enough to insure a measureably improved job picture by the Fall, is the more politically risky position for Dwmocrats to take. But what do you think? Let me know in the comments or take the poll.