The US census takes place once every ten years. The census itself is mandated by the Constitution in Article 1, Section 2 (something you can mention to Michele Bachmann and Glenn Beck, if you ever bump into them).
The primary purpose of the census is to apportion congressional delegations among the states (the higher the population of a state, the more representatives it receives in Congress).
The size of the House of Representatives has been set by law at 435 since 1911 (Congress has the power to increase or decrease that number as it sees fit, provided that no state may have more than one representative for every 30,000 people per Article 1 of the Constitution). Changes in population, therefore, represent a zero sum proposition for the states collectively.
According to Election Data Services (warning: PDF), the size of the congressional delegation for each of the following states is projected to change based on population shifts recorded in the 2010 census:
State |
Change in Size of Congressional Delegation |
Arizona |
+2 |
Florida |
+1 |
Georgia |
+1 |
Illinois |
-1 |
Iowa |
-1 |
Louisiana |
-1 |
Massachusetts |
-1 |
Michigan |
-1 |
Minnesota |
-1 |
Missouri |
-1 |
Nevada |
+1 |
New Jersey |
-1 |
New York |
-1 |
Ohio |
-2 |
Oregon |
+1 |
Pennsylvania |
-1 |
South Carolina |
+1 |
Texas |
+4 |
Utah |
+1 |
Because the number of votes given to each state in the electoral college, which elects the president, is based on the number of representatives such state has in Congress (plus two for each state representing the number of Senators for that state in Congress), here's how the reapportionment would impact the electoral college votes:
|
Net Change in Number of Votes in Electoral College |
States that Voted for McCain in 2008 |
+7 |
States that Voted for Obama in 2008 |
-7 |
If those changes had taken place in time for the 2008 election, Obama would have still easily won 358-180. In a closer election, these shifts could prove decisive.
Of course, if a state gains or loses a seat, that seat may or may not belong to the party which won the state in the 2008 presidential election. To the contrary, once a state knows if it will gain or lose seats in Congress, it will then redraw its congressional districts to account for the change in its delegation size. For most states, the state legislature will have the primary role in redistricting (often subject to approval by the governor). The only relevant exceptions are Arizona and New Jersey (which use an independent commission) and Iowa (which uses an independent commission for recommendations, but the state legislature must give final approval).
Consequently, it's important to know which party controls the state legislatures and the governorship of the states listed above to better guess how apportionment will change party power in Congress:
State |
Party Controlling State House |
Party Controlling State Senate |
Governor |
Arizona* |
Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Florida |
Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Georgia |
Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Illinois |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Iowa |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Louisiana |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Republican |
Massachusetts |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Michigan |
Democrat |
Republican |
Democrat |
Minnesota |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Republican |
Missouri |
Republican |
Republican |
Democrat |
Nevada |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Republican |
New Jersey* |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Republican |
New York |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Ohio |
Democrat |
Republican |
Democrat |
Oregon |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Democrat |
Pennsylvania |
Democrat |
Republican |
Democrat |
South Carolina |
Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Texas |
Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Utah |
Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Based on the information above, the net results would be as follows (excluding Arizona and New Jersey):
Party Composition |
Net Gain/Loss |
All Republican |
+10 |
All Democrat |
-3 |
House and Senate Democrat,
Governor Republican |
-1 |
House and Governor Democrat,
Senate Republican |
-4 |
House and Senate Republican,
Governor Democrat |
-1 |
The preliminary census estimates appear to project good news for Republicans, both in the electoral college and in congressional representation. Control over redistricting obviously does not guarantee that candidates from the redistricting party will win, but it does give them an edge.
This may sound like sour grapes after the analysis above, but I would prefer more states follow the lead of Arizona and New Jersey (or some other plan which removes as much of the politics from the redistricting process as follows). Our representative process should not be so heavily dependent on gerrymandering and partisan politics. Congressional districts like those of Maryland's 4th, Arizona's 2nd, Georgia's 13th, and Texas' 25th scream of partisan hackery (by both parties).
Check us out at http://www.thefourthbranch.com