In the mid-week edition of the Wrap, there is a lot of money news, which is to be expected given tomorrow's FEC deadline. There are also a handful of new polls, and some campaign launches (and failures to launch) that could attract a lot of attention in the coming days.
THE U.S. SENATE
CO-Sen: Bennet Leads Norton (In the Fundraising Race)
Lagging recently in polls against GOP frontrunner Jane Norton, Senator Michael Bennet has at least one advantage over his possible rival: a significant fundraising edge. The incumbent raised over $ 1.4 million in the first quarter, which well outpaced Norton (who raised just over $ 800K). Both Bennet and Norton are unlikely to be able to hold onto their cash, however, as both face competitive primaries.
NY-Sen: Well-Funded Gillibrand Gets New GOP Opponent
On a day that appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand announced an impressive fundraising haul of $ 1.6 million for the first quarter, she also drew another GOP opponent. As has long been rumored, former Bear Stearns economist David Malpass jumped into the race, with a one million dollar self-financing push out of the gate. Malpass, who served in the executive branches of two GOP presidents, was immediately blasted by Team Gillibrand, who noted that "as chief global economist for Bears Stearns, David Malpass not only helped cause the financial collapse, he made millions and left taxpayers holding the bill." Republicans, of course, are still reeling from the news late yesterday that former Governor George Pataki was demurring from a Senate challenge. Polls had shown that Pataki was the only Republican that was not being blasted by Gillibrand by double digits.
NC-Sen: Burr Looking More Vulnerable As Year Wears On
The latest monthly installment of the PPP poll in their home state of North Carolina finds incumbent Republican Richard Burr in a more perilous state than ever before. The trial heats have to be making the GOP a little nervous, as Burr's lead has slipped to single digits against all potential Democratic comers. Elaine Marshall comes closest (43-37), while both Cal Cunningham and Ken Lewis only lag a couple of points behind (45-37). Worse news for Burr--his approval rating is at an all-time low for this poll (32/41).
PA-Sen: Sestak Gaining on Specter In Another Poll
In addition to the Rasmussen poll that has everyone talking, Congressman Joe Sestak is gaining big-time on incumbent Senator Arlen Specter in another poll out of the Keystone State. In the new Susquehanna Poll (GOP pollster that does some independent work), they have Specter leading Sestak 42-28. While it still gives Specter a pretty healthy lead, it is a far cry from the 44-16 advantage that Specter enjoyed late last year. The pollster also looked at the general election, and found Republican Patrick Toomey up ten (48-38) on Specter. Curiously, they did not poll a Toomey-Sestak matchup.
WI-Sen: Thompson Decision to Fall On Tax Day
One way or another, we will know by this time tomorrow if Tommy Thompson's long flirtation with the U.S. Senate race comes to fruition, or not. He will apparently make the call tomorrow at a Tea Party rally in Madison. Making the announcement at a rally might hint at a bid, but the whispering for most of the day has vacillated between "he's out" and "he's really undecided."
THE U.S. HOUSE
PA-12: GOP Internal Poll Claims Narrow Lead In House Special
If you are buying what the GOP is selling, the Red team has a decent shot at flipping a long-Democratic House seat next month. An internal poll, leaked to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, shows Republican Tim Burns leading Democrat Mark Critz by a 45-41 margin. The article does not a potentially perilous discrepancy--the fact that the NRCC has already thrown national money into the district, while their Democratic counterparts have not followed suit.
THE MONEY CHASE: FEC Deadline Tomorrow--More Announcements Today
The excellent Daily Digest over at SSP (a big tip of the hat to Crisitunity and the crew over there) had a bunch of fundraising reports from prominent House candidates. Two themes: solid reports from races that were not necessarily on anyone's radar screen, and the fact that it doesn't hurt to be the progeny of a vice-president and right-wing icon:
AZ-03: Ben Quayle (R)--$ 550K Raised
FL-24: Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D)--$ 260K Raised, >$ 1 million on hand
MO-08: Tommy Sowers (D)--$ 295K Raised, $ 675K on hand
NM-02: Steve Pearce (R)--$ 277K Raised, $ 708K on hand
PA-11: Lou Barletta (R)--$ 300K Raised, $ 205K on hand
PA-17: David Argall (R)--$ 125K Raised
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
FL-Gov: Day-Old GOP Primary Gets Ugly. Fast.
Oh, my: this is good stuff. Only one day after wealthy hospital magnate and HCR opponent Rick Scott jumped into the race, (former?) frontrunner Bill McCollum got caught by his new opponent distributing off-the-record talking points that hammered Scott for his past as the head of Columbia/HCA. Team Scott fought back immediately, calling McCollum two-faced for welcoming him to the race while distributing mudslinging talking points below the radar. They also dinged McCollum for his close ties to Jim Greer, the former RPOF Chair who has put the entire state party under a mountain of scrutiny. In about 28 hours, this primary has already become hotter than it ever was when it was just McCollum and state legislator Paula Dockery.
NV-Gov: Dem Group Trying to Create Heat For Sandoval in GOP Primary
This is pretty clever--Jon Ralston, one of the preeminent political writers in Nevada, looks today at a Democratic coalition that is funding a seven-figure effort to resurrect an issue that might prove to be very uncomfortable for the GOP frontrunner, former state Attorney General and federal judge Brian Sandoval. As AG, Sandoval was a legal player in a court case trying to compel the Nevada state legislature to act on a major tax increase proposed by then-Governor Kenny Guinn. The Dem group is trying to remind GOP voters of this apostasy, in the hopes that it will push the far-weaker GOP candidate, incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons, over the top in the June primary.
PA-Gov: Susquehanna Poll First to Show Clear Dem Leader
If a new poll from Susquehanna Research is to be believed, we can now probably declare a clear frontrunner in the Democratic Primary to replace Ed Rendell as Governor of Pennsylvania. The survey says that Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato well out in front with 32% of the vote, well ahead of second-place Joe Hoeffel, who is back at 13% of the vote. Just under half of the state's Democrats are still undecided.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Not a particularly busy Ras-fest today. The focus is on the Senate. According to the Ras, Kirsten Gillibrand might be in danger if the candidate is someone named "Generic Republican", while Arlen Specter might be in deep trouble in the Keystone State. Add to that some West Coast flavor with new numbers in California, and you have the complete Ras update. You can always check here if you want more Ras in your life.
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 42%, Carly Fiorina (R) 38%
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 42%, Chuck DeVore (R) 39%
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 43%, Tom Campbell (R) 41%
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 52%, Rick Lazio (R) 29%
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 51%, Carl Paladino (R) 28%
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 50%, Steve Levy (R) 26%
NY-Sen: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 40%, "Generic Republican" 39%
PA-Sen (D): Sen. Arlen Specter 44%, Joe Sestak 42%
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey 50%, Sen. Arlen Specter 40%
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey 49%, Joe Sestak 38%