Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/12/2010-4/15/2010. Registered Voters. MoE 2.8% (Last week's results in parentheses):
|PRESIDENT OBAMA||53 (54)||42 (41)||-2|
|PELOSI:||39 (41)||52 (51)||-3|
|REID:||28 (29)||62 (63)||0|
|McCONNELL:||24 (22)||61 (62)||+3|
|BOEHNER:||21 (19)||60 (63)||+5|
|CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:||38 (40)||57 (56)||-3|
|CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:||21 (19)||68 (71)||+5|
|DEMOCRATIC PARTY:||39 (40)||54 (52)||-3|
|REPUBLICAN PARTY:||31 (28)||65 (67)||+5|
Just in time for Tax Day, the GOP enjoys its best week since August, 2009, when the town hall protests whipped Republican adherents into a fervor.
All Republican entities polled enjoyed sizeable gains of between 3-5 points, while every Democratic entity not named Harry Reid saw point drops in the 2-3 point range.
Three statistics in particular stand out, and should be cause for an abundance of concern for the Democrats:
- For the first time in three months, the Republican Party has reclaimed the lead on the DK/R2K variation on the generic Congressional ballot. While the Republican lead is but a single point (46-45), it is a huge reversal since the HCR passage, when Democrats bounced out to a six-point edge (48-42).
The GOP advantage is driven by an eleven-point edge among Independents, as well as huge lead among seniors.
- The GOP also had a monster week with regard to voter intensity. Whereas 63% of Republicans last week declared themselves either certain to vote or likely to vote, that number exploded this week to 69%. While Democratic intensity improved, as well, it was much more incrementally (59% to 61%). Meanwhile, Democrats are almost twice as unlikely to declare themselves unlikely to vote than Republicans. At this point, only 15% of Republicans say that they are either unlikely or certain not to participate in the midterm elections.
- In many ways, the most potentially perilous news for the Democratic team is that, in spite of the passage of the HIR bill, the momentum on the right track/wrong track indicator has regressed, with figures essentially as bad as they have ever been. Only 38% of voters consider the country to be on the right track, with 58% of voters saying America is on the wrong track, essentially unchanged since mid-March. Any uptick in Democratic optimism after the bill passage was offset by GOP pessimism. Independents have barely moved, as a result
The question over the next few weeks will be whether this is, in effect, a "bounce" for the GOP inspired by relentless media coverage of Tax Day/Tea Party events (led, as you might expect, by the official network of the teabaggers), or if this is a more systemic reaction to recent events. Democrats might also, belatedly, look for ways to turn what was a significant legislative victory into a political one, as well.