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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/12/2010-4/15/2010. Registered Voters. MoE 2.8% (Last week's results in parentheses):

PRESIDENT OBAMA53 (54)42 (41)-2
PELOSI:39 (41)52 (51)-3
REID:28 (29)62 (63)0
McCONNELL:24 (22)61 (62)+3
BOEHNER:21 (19)60 (63)+5
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:38 (40)57 (56)-3
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:21 (19)68 (71)+5
DEMOCRATIC PARTY:39 (40)54 (52)-3
REPUBLICAN PARTY:31 (28)65 (67)+5

Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.

Just in time for Tax Day, the GOP enjoys its best week since August, 2009, when the town hall protests whipped Republican adherents into a fervor.

All Republican entities polled enjoyed sizeable gains of between 3-5 points, while every Democratic entity not named Harry Reid saw point drops in the 2-3 point range.

Three statistics in particular stand out, and should be cause for an abundance of concern for the Democrats:

  • For the first time in three months, the Republican Party has reclaimed the lead on the DK/R2K variation on the generic Congressional ballot. While the Republican lead is but a single point (46-45), it is a huge reversal since the HCR passage, when Democrats bounced out to a six-point edge (48-42).

    The GOP advantage is driven by an eleven-point edge among Independents, as well as huge lead among seniors.

  • The GOP also had a monster week with regard to voter intensity. Whereas 63% of Republicans last week declared themselves either certain to vote or likely to vote, that number exploded this week to 69%. While Democratic intensity improved, as well, it was much more incrementally (59% to 61%). Meanwhile, Democrats are almost twice as unlikely to declare themselves unlikely to vote than Republicans. At this point, only 15% of Republicans say that they are either unlikely or certain not to participate in the midterm elections.
  • In many ways, the most potentially perilous news for the Democratic team is that, in spite of the passage of the HIR bill, the momentum on the right track/wrong track indicator has regressed, with figures essentially as bad as they have ever been. Only 38% of voters consider the country to be on the right track, with 58% of voters saying America is on the wrong track, essentially unchanged since mid-March. Any uptick in Democratic optimism after the bill passage was offset by GOP pessimism. Independents have barely moved, as a result

The question over the next few weeks will be whether this is, in effect, a "bounce" for the GOP inspired by relentless media coverage of Tax Day/Tea Party events (led, as you might expect, by the official network of the teabaggers), or if this is a more systemic reaction to recent events. Democrats might also, belatedly, look for ways to turn what was a significant legislative victory into a political one, as well.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:30 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Wait, I thought the teaparties were a flop... (8+ / 0-)

    There are ten diaries a day talking about how little overall interest the parties are generating, and now our pollsters are speculating that the coverage of these parties attended by "scores" of people resulted in huge gains? Well, which is it?

    •  You don't think (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Caelian, Sandigurl, Matt Z, dotster, tberry, bluezen

      disproportionate (read: outrageous) coverage by the corporate-run media might have a teensy little part to play? Itty bitty?

      •  But the polls don't measure media coverage, (0+ / 0-)

        they measure the populace.
        If the populace is filled with sympathizers, the coverage isn't disproportionate.
        If the coverage creates sympathizers, there are more than scores.

        BTW -- the rally at Chicago's Daley plaza certainly attracted more than scores.

        As to disproportionate coverage, the CBS Evening news didn't cover the April 15th events at all, let alone disproporionately.

        Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

        by dinotrac on Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 07:54:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  We would be wise to attempt (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sandigurl, Matt Z, dotster, SGS, tberry, bluezen

      to educate the people of this country about how they will benefit from the HCR law. The media sure has no interest in doing it. Hell, there are millions of Americans who think Obama raised their taxes. Again, the MSM is happy to allow that to continue. I personally believe we should focus on informing voters about what Obama and the Dems have done for them.

      Palin 2012 - Yes We Klan!

      by kitebro on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 12:12:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, it looks to me like the big (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Caelian, Matt Z, scotths, Captain Antelope

      gains for the GOP primarily come from the South. Hell, the generic ballot question alone has the Douth wanting more Reps 64/31. The other regions are tied or Dem leads.

      NE is Dem 61/17.
      Midwest is tied at 47.
      West is Dem 48/46.

      If the GOP continues to be a Southern Confederate party then I am not s sure their demise won't continue.

      And if the democrats play the financial reform right then I would expect to see some changes as well.*

      * Stop laughing.

      Still a man hears what he wants to hear And disregards the rest

      by Mike S on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 12:26:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes and No (0+ / 0-)

      Yes, they will have a big impact on 2010. Yes, they're a flop, but predictable, when it comes to having anything constructive in terms of policy to offer. No, they won't have much going for them in 2012 if in fact the Repubs take either branch of Congress. Why not? Because they'll see that the GOP has thrown them under the bus. Out of fiscal realism necessity:

      Your reaction?

  •  GOP will filibuster finance reform (17+ / 0-)

    They have all endorsed the false rhetoric about "endless bailouts."

    Next week's numbers will depend entirely on how the Democrats respond.

    If Reid relents and returns to negotiations, we're fucked.

    •  Also news WH has prepared campaign to tar (8+ / 0-)

      and feather Reps as stooges of Wall St.

    •  We already are. Look at the numbers. Read (8+ / 0-)

      all the past diaries on how the Tea Party is in disarray. How the Tea Party is imploding. All the "funny" diaries about Palin, et al.

      Well something is working for them. The more exposure they get, the more popular they seem to get counters the "common wisdom" I've been reading here.

      Lesson Learned: never, ever discount your opponent.

      Progressives will win when the country becomes Progressive.

      by auapplemac on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:48:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dismissing Teabaggers Makes Them Stronger... (5+ / 0-)


        But I believe it.

        It plays into the "elitist" charge, which might play with certain independents and seniors who sympathize with the "little guy" mantle these gasbags adopt for themselves.

        Teabaggers are not a good political target. Republicans are. When you challenge the Teabagger, even though the "movement" is largely a creation of the GOP and Fox, you are challenging the "little guy."

        Ignore the "little guy" who vehemently opposes your agenda.

        Focus on the big guys who benefit from the misdirection.

        •  You're catching on. (0+ / 0-)

          It's not just that Democrats, etc dismiss the Tea Party crowd, it's that they do it so -- UM -- dismissively, write on down to "teabaggers".

          Very little has spread the message that Democrats are an elitists with no interest in the needs of ordinary Americans than your attitudes towards the Tea Party.

          Well, there is the refusal to take unemployment seriously, but -- put the two together and you've got one heckuva message.

          Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

          by dinotrac on Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 07:59:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Boehner: "President Obama’s Wall Street al (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stroszek, PeakRaider

      It's interesting to see both sides trying to slam the other party with being too close to Wall Street.

       House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-OH) issued the following statement after the U.S. Securities & Exchanges Commission (SEC) announced it was charging Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs – which has been supportive of President Obama’s bill to create a permanent bailout fund – with defrauding investors:

      "These are very serious charges against a key supporter of President Obama’s bill to create a permanent Wall Street bailout fund.  Despite President Obama’s rhetoric, his permanent bailout bill gives Goldman Sachs and other big Wall Street banks a permanent, taxpayer-funded safety net by designating them ‘too  big to fail.’  Just whose side is President Obama on?

      "Instead of permanent bailouts for President Obama’s Wall Street allies, Republicans believe the best way to protect taxpayers is by reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored companies that sparked the meltdown by giving high-risk loans to people who couldn’t afford it."

       Is Boehner just jealous that Democrats are getting Goldman Sachs money?

      "The people have only as much liberty as they have the intelligence to want & the courage to take." - Emma Goldman

      by gjohnsit on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:59:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A momentary reactionary blip on the radar. (7+ / 0-)

    We can STILL do this. Enthusiasm does NOT belong exclusively with one group or another, but is a strictly human trait.

  •  just for the record (4+ / 0-)

    when does a bounce become a trend?

    All liberal values can be summed into a single issue: The dismantling of the American Middle Class. Publicly Funded U.S. Politics NOW!!!

    by innereye on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:34:53 AM PDT

    •  i get your point (6+ / 0-)

      for months now we have seen countless people here dismiss the Tea Party effect. It's real, folks, like it or not. It's not something to joke about...keep joking and our ass will be looking at a Speaker Boehner and President Palin. The yuk yuk time os over, so i advise we get to organizing oursleves. These tea partiers have a 1 year head start on us.

      It's sad, too, cause the last 3 times (in like the last 3 weeks) i have watched NBC News with BWilliams I've seen FAVORABLE Tea Party stories. Same goes for NPR. Whenever the reporter says something to dispute the tea partiers on the NPR stories the party people say something like "i just don't believe that Obama has cut my taxes this year". Heck, on NBC News there's not even a dispute put up against the the rhetoric/lies. They just go along with the flow. This kind of stuff actually gives lightweight news entities stories to cover. It means they don't have to go out and dig up their own story, it's all right there in front of them, waving a flag and holding a picture of Obama fucking Pelosi in the ass holding a baby by it's throat and grandma by her nipples. What more could a modern day MSM news agency need? And here we sit casting the whole thing off as a big joke. These people aren't joking.

      •  THe night the Bill became Law (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        NBC Nightly News had about a 30 second segment on the signing of the new law. It then followed up with 3 whole segments opposing the law. A GOP SEnator, one of the AG's suing and a Oklahoma (!!) small business owner saying how much it would hurt him.

  •  Absolutely brutal poll for Dems (12+ / 0-)

    the interior numbers are horrible, principally the generic congressional ballot and just as importantly the enthusiasm gap has widened (last week it was +4 Rep now it is +7 Rep)

  •  The difference between (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    the president's approval rating and that of any piece of Congress borders on the amazing. While it's not unusual to see the president rated higher, these stark differences have been on the table for months. It will be interesting to see what, if any, impact the low approval of various aspects of Congress may have on turnout in the mid-terms.

    Turnout could be higher than normal, if everyone is pissed. Or it could be depressed, because the electorate is thinking "a pox on both of you."

  •  I've mostly given up on the American voter. (20+ / 0-)

    As a nation, we just don't seem to be smart enough to get anything more out of government than we deserve, and what we deserve is basically George W. Bush. We've just had an administration implement policies that have the stock market back 70% off its 2009 lows, as well as health insurance reform that have pushed out the stability of Medicare and Medicaid, along with a foreign policy tack that has resulted in some enormous treaties and agreements. And for its trouble, the American populace now apparently wants to bring back the people that fucked it in the first place. Hey, merry Christmas. I almost hope they succeed, even if it means my IRA once again gets crushed into oblivion.

  •  Are we just too relaxed by nature? (6+ / 0-)

    Meanwhile, Democrats are almost twice as unlikely to declare themselves unlikely to vote than Republicans.

    The Republican brand: "Consequences, schmonsequences, as long as I'm rich"

    by D in Northern Virginia on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:36:10 AM PDT

  •  And just heard from my wife that Obama has (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    buckeyekarl, Phil S 33, sunbro, pademocrat

    selected a SCOTUS candidate. Now it really starts.

  •  i don't understand these numbers (19+ / 0-)

    obama makes progress on loose nuclear materials during the largest gathering of world leaders since the inception of the un and goes to prague to sign a treaty with on nuclear weapons, but his numbers (and those of the dems) go down?  

    what in the world is going on?

    •  Its called character assassination (13+ / 0-)

      They have a huge echo chamber making anything he says sound like he is satan, they have their masses frothing in the streets, they have a compact R party, they are constantly and r relentlessly pushing their POV on any open forum you can find form every single internet place (crawling with reactionary posters even in places like the NYT or the Huffpost) to city councils, school boards, etcetera

      Meanwhile we laugh at them and expend our energy discussing how little liberal Obama is.

      •  Can we even win against the (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        auapplemac, Iberian, Matt Z

        character assassination? My friend's company just raised their hc premium $20/month, cut their pay $1 hour and blamed Obama......not the fact the company is an automobile supplier in Michigan. Then they went out and bought 2 Blackberry's and up their cell phone plan $20/month. Hello? That is the priority of people....they bitch about a $20 month hc premium but not paying $20 a month more for a phone. They should be thankful the company is offering insurance after getting rid of 300 out of 365 workers.

        How much pain have cost us the evils which have never happened. Thomas Jefferson

        by coffejoe on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:53:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't get it either (0+ / 0-)

      and it's very discouraging. How does he win?

      Sarah Palin: The Palin plan is quite simple. My elderly mother (drily): It would have to be.

      by Juliann on Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 09:38:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  That's what happens (17+ / 0-)

    when a group of protesters gets wall-to-wall mass media coverage and the counterprotesters get ignored.  I am sick and tired of the teabagger coverage, and I just got really bitter recently about how they got 91823747501301239x more coverage than the Iraq protesters, who outnumber the teabaggers 1000x at least.

    "If Congress made it rain cookies, the headline would read 'Democrats Leave Millions Milkless'."- Jon Stewart

    by farleftloon on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:37:43 AM PDT

  •  I have to wonder about "bounces" in general. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    What actually causes them?

    Please tell me it is something more substantial in human nature than:  

    "I ... am ... seeing ... a ... lot ... about ... this ... on ... the ... TeeVee.   Must ... therefore ... approve ... of ... it ..."

  •  People hate the health care law. (4+ / 0-)

    That's what this is about. Its not tax protests. Its the fact that people now realize they are being forced to buy shitty private health insurance, or get taxed if they don't, with no guarantee that the insurers won't screw them over or jack up premiums.

    I confess I was wrong about the public warming up to the law after they got to know it. The contrary is true. They hate it more now than ever. And they hate it for what it actually, truly does -- not the phony arguments of teabaggers.

    Also --the perception that Medicare is going to be cut in order to help pay for this is driving seniors into the GOP camp. The Democrats have lost seniors -- and are now disillusioning young people with the fucking mandate (and no public otion for them to choose).

    •  How the heck do you figure that given that NO ONE (14+ / 0-)

      has been forced to buy anything yet, and quite frankly, most adults (who are not seniors) who do have health insurance already buy it from private carriers.  I think there is a lot of projecting going on in your post

    •  pet theories are cuddly (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, jim bow, Matt Z, alkalinesky, barkingcat

      Support and opposition for the health care law is roughly where it was last November. In fact, support has trended slightly upwards. Yesterday, Gallup said support has remained stable throughout April.

      There's also no indication that people suddenly learned what's in the bill. Given that the mandates are only expected to effect 5% of the population and recent polls indicate only 5% of the opposition (about 2.7% of the entire population) is primarily rooted in concerns about the individual mandate (and only about 1.5% of the population cites concerns about Medicare cuts), I don't think you're right.

      Health care reform is still unpopular but, for the most part, not for the reasons you mention... and it's not what's driving voter frustration.

    •  You give these people (teabaggers) too much (5+ / 0-)

      credit.  Their protests almost always reflect Republican talking points whether its HCR or taxes.  When they are engaged one on one, it's been shown time after time they don't know the facts.  The know whatever Glenn Beck tells them.  Just look at the tax day protests - most teabaggers think their taxes went up.  The facts are that 98% of people got a tax reduction.  

      Combine the low information, know nothing ideologue with the constant media megaphone and you get results reflected in these polls.  The right wing strategy is winning and IMO will continue straight through to November.  They will find something to shout about - true or not.  Dems are always on the defense.

      Progressive groups really need to use this as a wake up call.  I am willing to get out and fight back - we need leadership to lead.

      Pootie guardian ~ Woozle lover

      by barkingcat on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:58:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  we have lost teh seniors for good (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Julia Grey, savvyspy, Hesiod

      thankfully we have the youth, but they don't vote like the seniors do. Our leaders have let the lies seep in to the mainstream. Where's the D congressmen/women talking about the closing of the donut hole. We have teh worst fucking PR contious people in the world. No one fucking listens the soft talker Harry Reid when he whispers his commments. If teh GOP didn't have doofus and roofus running their party in Congress we would really be in trouble.

      •  Medicare cuts ARE programmed in, though (0+ / 0-)

        So, its not irrational. Its just selfish, as are most things with (primaily) baby boomer retirees.

        Notice that most of the pissing and moaning comes from the 60-70 set. The self-absorbed baby boomers who created a massive drug culture in the 60's, a sex and drug and crime culture in the 70's, gave us Ronal Reagan and Bush I in the 80's, felt hung over in the 90's and actually reverted back to some of tehir best instincts in the 90's, then got scared into voting for Bush in the 00's.

        Young people, though, finally had a bigger say in 2008.

      •  Sane people have long known (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        denise b

        that Medicare, like Social Security, is a third rail in American politics. The only thing you can legitimately do with it is form a bipartisan commission composed of really old and really respected people, and let them make hard decisions that will go into effect decades into the future. This truism has been in place for at least 30+ years, so it's hard to figure out why we have people in D.C. who somehow forgot this . . .

    •  That may be part of it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      People on this thread and Democrats in Congress don't seem to get that The People has moved on already.

      It wants the stuff done.  HCR is passed, it's a crappy and minimal bill, now tell us the next thing- how you're going to improve on it.  Same with 'financial reform' and immigration and all that.  The job ain't done.  Get to work, Democrats in Congress!  No sitting on your asses and patting yourselves on the back, which is what they're doing.  There's a lot that has to get done. That's what is in the polling.

      Basically, The People is being a bit of a mob.  Congress has to getting running and do what is desperately needed to keep ahead of it.  If Congress stops and tries to appease/argue with them about the incoherent, nonsensical angry rhetoric they'll just get run over and clubbed.  We already have a Party whose job description is to do as little useful stuff for average people as possible- the Republicans.

      And even if getting voted out in November is inevitable, that ought to be reason to do as much good as possible before then.  Recessions and depressions are horrible but the best times to generate and pass economic and ethics reforms into law.  Grasp the opportunity, Capitol Hill.

  •  28 weeks til the Nov 2nd election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    exotrip, coffejoe

    80 % of success is showing up! We are like The Roman Empire. We have had The Rise, get ready for The Fall.

    by Churchill on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:41:01 AM PDT

  •  "Teabagger Bounce". Unwanted mental image. (6+ / 0-)
  •  Americans get what they deserve if they (8+ / 0-)

    put the Rethugs back into power.  This President works harder than any President in History to help the middle class.  These baby boomers are just a bunch of greedy gutter snipes that want it all for themselves screw everyone else.

  •  Considering that the main Republican (7+ / 0-)

    propaganda channel has been flogging this Tea Party crap for the last two weeks, it's no wonder that there is a slight bounce in the polls for the enthusiasm level for the Republicans at tax time.  They have been demonizing taxes and the President has been engaged in the serious business of securing nuclear material (under a Muslim friendly logo according to Fox).  And now, the main Republican talking point is that financial reform will permanently bail out banks with taxpayer money which is all untrue, but no one is calling them liars on it.  As long a Democrats and the media allow the Republicans to get away with the Big Lie, the Democrats will have trouble in passing their agenda.  Remember back in the days when Presidents used to have televised talks to the nation, not just press conferences, but a block of prime time to address the nation on a one on one basis and actually use the bully pulpit of the Presidency to get the message out.  Perhaps we need a return to more of that unfiltered message to get out there, unmediated by the Republican propaganda machine that is Fox News.

    And it feels like I'm livin'in the wasteland of the free ~ Iris DeMent, 1996

    by MrJersey on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:44:50 AM PDT

  •  Effet of tea party coverage 24/7 (8+ / 0-)

    It EXACERBATES the fears and discouragement of people, even if they don't endorse the teaparty.

    Something positive has to happen soon. I hope President Obama and the democrats can win BIG on financial reform. Win on policy, but win on PERCEPTION too. Winning on perception will be tricky, given how MSM doesn't confront the distorsions of the GOP.

    •  You said the magic word: PRECEPTION! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, tapu dali, barkingcat

      Dems are terrible at this. We have a problem getting a positive message out ... of convincing America that we're on their side.

      Where is our Frank Luntz?

      If FOX news was so persuasive, then McCain should be in the White House. (Although, I don't think they trusted McCain run a truly conservative enough administration.)

      Progressives will win when the country becomes Progressive.

      by auapplemac on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 12:22:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, perception and (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Julia Grey, auapplemac, Matt Z

        messaging is Lakoff's specialty.

        And kindly note what many here (and in the administration) think of him.

        The meme is, "Our policies sre right and good. There is no need to 'spin' the message".

        And where has this attitude gotten the Dems? H'm?

        I get "suaviter in modo", Mr President. May we now have some "fortiter in re"?

        by tapu dali on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 12:41:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Part of the "bounce"-- if you will-- (12+ / 0-)

    is that the economic recovery hasn't spread to the job market yet. We get teased with articles saying things are getting better, but then the jobs aren't there. And I'm saying that as a 50+ job hunter out of work nearly a year, with no prospects in sight.
    It may not be Obama's fault but he's still gonna take the fall for it.

    Necessity is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.-- Wm.Pitt the Younger

    by JeffSCinNY on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:52:40 AM PDT

  •  A couple years ago (13+ / 0-)

    We all heard that news coverage was very tilted toward Republicans because they are in power.  Now that they are out of power, they get even more coverage than ever.

    When Liberals protest, the story line is, those angry liberals.  All they can do is get angry because they have no ideas.

    What happens when conservatives protest?  Wall to wall coverage of Palin and Bachman talking about those damn communist socialists, and us "real americans."

    It's freak'in disgusting.

    When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace. Jimi Hendrix

    by Dave B on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:54:50 AM PDT

  •  I have to confess I'm stunned and perplexed. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, pademocrat, coffejoe, PeakRaider

    I thought I had a pretty good handle on the political climate and how it changes. But it seems that I have been utterly, abjectly wrong.

    Is there some kind of mammoth e-mail thing going on behind the scenes? What massively effective, stealth campaign is occuring under the radar? What is going on that I can't fathom? Because this makes no sense whatsoever. None.


    •  Wall-to-wall teabagger coverage. (6+ / 0-)

      This wouldn't happen if the media treated progressives fairly.

      The teabaggers get coverage while progressive protesters are ignored. The Republicans stand to make decent gains they have no business making. Hmmm...

      by farleftloon on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:57:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The MSM needs to have "Anti-Democrats (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Julia Grey, Matt Z, squarewheel, Jerry056

      The Villager media has come to believe that Republicans are the only legitimate governing authority.  Thus, when Democrats are in power, they're inevitably thought of as usurpers and Republicans are seen as sort of a French underground resistance, standing up for what's right against the Vichy Democrats.  This has been going on at least since the Carter administration and has gotten more and more pronounced with each successive Democratic administration.

      veritas vos liberabit

      by WWGray on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 12:18:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think you are stunned because (4+ / 0-)

      this site often functions as an echo chamber, reflecting back mainly those opinions that are already held by most of the people here.  MSNBC prime time is often the same thing.  Often, people on one side of the political spectrum don't hear what is coming from the other side unless it is in the context of ridiculing the other side.  When that's the main source of information, it can sometimes be a shock to see so many people whose world view is completely different from yours.

      That is one of my pet peeves about having, on the one hand, Fox News speaking only to conservatives or those on the right, and, on the other hand, MSNBC prime time speaking only to progressives or those on the left.  It's not just the spin that each places on the news; often, the two channels are not even reporting the same facts or events. It means that the two groups are not even living in  the same reality.  It only adds to the polarization of the country.  Both MSNBC prime time and Fox News are talking only to those who already agree with time.  When both sides are reinforced by listening to people say (essentially), "we are completely right; the other side is either evil or stupid," that does not make for a shared reality or a starting point for talking to the other side.  

    •  I don't get what you were wrong about? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The majority of people said both on the streets and in poll after poll that they didn't agree with the health care reform proposal. Instead of taking that into account, the Democratic Party leadership rammed the bill through Congress anyways, along the way engaging in the worst kind of political deal-making and arm-twisting imaginable. Then, they celebrated in the end zone as if they had done something "historic".

      Once passed, it became clear that almost nobody was going to be helped in the short-run, but already companies were reporting major hits to their bottom line in the middle of a huge recession. Those who care to look into it any further will soon discover that the main "improvement" that applies broadly is that they'll know be forced under federal law to buy a product from the same insurance companies that are the source of the problem, with no limit on how much it will cost.

      How is it surprising that this is not a route to political popularity for the Democrats?

  •  And another thing. There is a strong (8+ / 0-)

    reactionary mood since Obama took over, fueled by uncertainty and a not-so-unconscious fear on the part of the white good ol' boy network that "the wrong people" are taking over. Add a bad economy and it's a wonder Obama is doing as well as he is.

    I frankly doubt that anybody but a Barack Obama could be doing as well under these adverse circumstances.  

  •  We need to find the reason (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, Floande, PeakRaider

    Meanwhile, Democrats are almost twice as unlikely to declare themselves unlikely to vote than Republicans.

    why? Even if you are angry at some policy of the President it is no reason not to vote...that only causes you to be governed by your inferiors.

    How much pain have cost us the evils which have never happened. Thomas Jefferson

    by coffejoe on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 11:57:59 AM PDT

    •  Dems are complacent, Repugs are angry (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Julia Grey, auapplemac, Matt Z, angeleyes

      Dems don't have Bush/Cheney to energize them.
      Repugs have "that one" to focus on.

      Pootie guardian ~ Woozle lover

      by barkingcat on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 12:05:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Let me help you out. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Julia Grey, pragprogress, FistJab, tberry
      1. Congress has a very low approval rating.  VERY LOW.  Very few are happy with the way HCR was passed and what it contains.
      1. Congress has a very low approval rating.  VERY LOW.  They spent a shit load of money on a stimulus package that is shall we say... less than stimulating.
      1. Congress has a very low approval rating.  VERY LOW.  They spent a shit load of money on TARP.  They bought two car companies and the largest insurance company in the world.  Nothing to show for it, and like dog shit stuck to your shoe, very hard to get rid of.  Who thinks the government is running GM better than Ford?  If you do, take off your glasses and clean'em.  Obama put in place a management team at GM that knows nothing about building cars, and their sales back me up on that one.  I for one will never own a GM or Chrysler car again.  They pretty much suck.  Oh, does anyone remember the bond holders at Chrysler that got fucked right in the ass on their bankruptcy?  Yep, we (citizens of the US) all pretty much stole their money, and they were not the rich fat cats that Congress was trying to tell us they were.  The main holder of those bonds were pension funds, 401Ks, and people like our parents.  Sorry Nancy, Harry, and Barack, those people are gonna have a looooooonnnggggg memory.
      1. Congress has a very low approval rating.  VERY LOW.  They continue to call Repubs obstructionist but they had a super majority in the Senate and very large majority in the house.  They were and are calling the Repubs. the party of NO when they only need to pick off one R in the Senate to pass anything they want.
      1. Congress has a very low approval rating.  VERY LOW.  Focus like a laser on the economy, my ass.  High unemployment is predicted far into the future, even by the administrations best estimates.  Green jobs, a good idea in theory but where the fuck are they and how much will they pay?  That seems to be a question that a lot are asking with only silence for an answer.
      1. Congress has a very low approval rating.  VERY LOW.  Foreclosures are still a large problem.  What the fuck are they doing to alleviate the problem other than wringing their hands and giving the country double speak?

      I don't see anything between now and November that will change that.  

      Respect everyone, fear no one

      by sigsauerdude on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 12:56:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The propaganda and slow job growth (11+ / 0-)

    will wear down the most patient and rational American. It's a tough media world we live in and you have to constantly be on the offensive.

  •  I don't think there is much question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Julia Grey

    ...that Americans are upset partly because of the glacial pace of this economic recovery. Republicans are certainly deluding them about the actual causes, but we needed a bigger stimulus.

  •  EPIC (9+ / 0-)

    Democratic Messaging Fail.

    Aren't you sick of the flaccidity?

    I am.  Attack, Dems, you stupid fucks.  Attack and win.

    Of course it doesn't help that the FUCKING ASSHOLE MEDIA regurgitates GOP talking points.

    The CBS News blurb on the radio just reported the Luntz "endless taxpayer bailout" bullshit as straight news.

    Fucking unreal.

  •  I would call this a Corporate Media bounce (4+ / 0-)

    The teabagz only get support because the media shows them 24/7. I wish we could go back to the days were the News Media just told the Facts without giving opinions about every topic. Why do we Americans put up with so much BS?

    The time is always right to do what is right. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

    by Tricky on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 12:08:31 PM PDT

    •  I wish (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Julia Grey, Matt Z

      As long as we continue to allow the media to be consolidated in the hands of a few huge, unaccountable multinational corporate behemoths, this will never change.

      "News" means nothing to them.  It's all about getting rich.

      veritas vos liberabit

      by WWGray on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 12:27:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Who are these supposed fickle morons? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Julia Grey, Matt Z, Juliann

    How can people's opinions change from happy with dems to happy with repubs to love Pelosi to hate Pelosi from week to week? Who is this fickle? Who are they polling? I haven't been polled since 2000.

    Is anyone from Kos, for example, going to decide to vote Republican next time? Anyone from Freeperville going to vote Dem next time? Sheesh.

    Long term trends are helpful, but sometimes I swear these polls are put out by media for media, and don't mean anything - other than to sway the unwashed masses.

  •  Research (0+ / 0-)

    My name is Natalie Hopkins-Best.  I am a graduate student at the University of Minnesota, and I am conducting research for my master's thesis.  As a mass communications student, I am very interested in the way that people use news blogs as a form of their news intake.  I would greatly appreciate you taking a few minutes of your time to complete an online survey that should take no more than 15 minutes.  If you have any questions or concerns, do not hesitate to contact me.  Please follow this link to begin:

    Thank you sincerely,

    Natalie Hopkins-Best
    School of Journalism and Mass Communication
    University of Minnesota
    111 Murphy Hall
    206 Church Street SE
    Minneapolis, MN 55402

  •  Some Seniors understand HCR and don't like it (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Julia Grey, tberry

    Like my parents.  They've been on Medicare Advantage.  They "understand" that the new law will effectively gut Medicare Advantage as the "Medicare cuts."  And they don't like it, not at all.  They are fully prepared to vote for any candidate who will promise to change that aspect of the law.  

    There's a concrete reason that the Dem numbers among seniors have gone down, and it's the "cuts to Medicare" -- i.e., Medicare Advantage.  

    •  Yes, but.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Julia Grey

      I agree, since I'm on it. And will gladly take the consequences of losing it because in fact it is a big rip off of Medicare (the only real "advantage" you get is eyeglasses...).

      Seniors are gullible and largely selfish. And in fact are saying: "Ruin Medicare for the next generation, I got mine".

      •  Doen't matter (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Julia Grey, denise b

        Seniors are unhappy that Medicare Advantage is going away.  The answer to that is, yes, this directly cuts out something that you consider a benefit to you, but, in the overall scheme of things, you shouldn't be upset, you should be HAPPY to give it up.  

        That won't play.  I don't know of any political group that kind of line would work with.

        It's the very reason that Social Security has been labeled the "third rail" of politics.  Whether the reforms to Social Security have merit or not, if you do anything that is perceived by Seniors as a threat or a cut to Social Security, you need to be prepared to have them come out en masse against you in the next election.  That's political reality.

        Frankly, what would really be surprising to me is if the Democrats did not realize that getting rid of Medicare Advantage would cost them a lot of votes among seniors.  If they did realize it and factored it into their political calculations, fine.  If they didn't realize it, or are surprised that Seniors don't like this bill -- that's political malpractice.  

  •  I wonder if (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jaywillie, Matt Z

    The Stop the War movement, with MILLIONS of people in the street would've gotten a "Bump" if it had been broadcast on an endless loop like the mad tea party has....

    Why aren't the rallies In Support of the president getting as much attention as those that are opposed?

    Political parties always get a "bump" after they hold a convention.

  •  Just once in my life... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    v2aggie2 would be nice to read an analysis of a poll without crazy over-analysis.

    In September of 2008 Gallup/USA Today had McCain winning the election by 10 points.  10 POINTS. And they had McCain with a number higher than even President Obama won the election with (54%).

    My point? Polls are not perfect, and there's a reason why there is such a thing as Margin of Error. That 46/45 generic ballot Republican lead could actually be a 5 point Democratic lead.

    I thought more polls would improve polling, but unfortunately that's no where near the truth. In reality extra polling has made gauging reality even more difficult.

    Oh well.

    •  I think the McCain thing was because (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Julia Grey

      subesequent events -- like the way McCain reacted to the financial crisis and Palin's disasterous interviews -- contributed to that turn around in the numbers.

      Yes, there is a margin of error, and yes, intervening facts can change things by November.  But it was clearly a bad week for Democrats.  I think that's a fair assumption from the numbers.  

  •  What the Dems MUST do this summer: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Julia Grey

    explain the Health Care Bill FULLY, esp. to Seniors and people on Medicare, like myself, trump up the economy and the Dow Jones ( you wouldn't hear the last of this if Shrub were still in office) and God forbid that! and mention the GOP is lining up against Financial Reform, because they get all/most of their support and $$$ from Wall Street. If they do these 3 things, I think we can minimize our losses. Now Dems.: GET BUSY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    •  And force Repubs to answer (0+ / 0-)

      Any Dem candidate must be armed with a series of
      straightforward questions to his/her challenger about how the challenger would answer them.

      Requiring specific answers to questions such as the Bush tax cuts' role in the projected future deficit;
      such as how to address the Medicare funding issue...

      There are others, and that's the only way that the
      Dems can take some steam out of the issues.

  •  many must have watched frontline (0+ / 0-)

    and saw what a special interest riddled excuse for a HC bill was sold out to them.

    They better not repeat this sham with financial reform.

  •  The getting credit for it problem (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jim J, Julia Grey, tberry

    The messaging gap is the real problem. Dems are not getting the kind of credit they should for what they've actually accomplished, and who will be benefiting from it.

    Just as we saw how few people realized that our taxes are at a 60 year low and the scope of tax cuts the average family has received in the past year.

    The Dems can not get the messag out in the traditional media, mainly because of the quasi monopoly on cable of Fox news and the literal right-wing monopoly of talk radio.

    The Dems need a couple of positive Ads to be run in key districts (and there's a lot of them), specifically detailing what has been done so far to help the average person in that district. Be they women, students, veterans, the Dems have given them concrete help.

    And with all the so-called Hollywood liberals, you'd think someone there could come up with some eye opening Ads. I'd certainly contribute to paying for getting them aired.

    •  ABSOLUTELY (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Julia Grey

      Dems are losing the messaging war big time. In good part because of the GOP dominance of Fox News and talk radio.

      When so many people don't even realize by tax day that their taxes have probably gone down (often to 60 year lows), how can you expect the public to remember the
      numerous pieces of legislation that will positively impact them....

      There are a couple of Dem PACs that will do what you suggest...over at HuffingtonPost there's even a story on one of them.

      The DNC has been negligent in this.

      We need to support these groups with our money.

  •  asdf (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Julia Grey, Matt Z

    I just don't get why Democrats constantly play defense instead of touting their accomplishments.  Not only that, I don't understand how so many Americans can be taken in by Fox News and crazy teabaggers.

  •  Sabotaging the Tea Party? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    What I've been doing wherever I have a voice is to demand of the Tea Party that it obtain signed pledges from any candidate it endorses to do the following within 45 days of taking office (by sponsoring or co-sponsoring legislation):

    1. Reinstate any expired parts of the Bush tax cuts.
    1. Index the AMT for inflation.
    1. Demonstrate any impact on the deficit
    1. Pledge to actively work to implement the entire Contract From America.

    And within 6 months of taking office:
    Provide a detailed analysis of how they would address the funding issues relative to Medicare and Social Security. Especially Medicare.

    Why do this? Because it will force candidates, once elected, into an untenable position. Either they break faith with their pledge, or they suffer the consequences of their legislation:

    They may win in 2010, but if we can can make them actually be accountable to the Tea Party, then they'll be gone once again in 2012.

  •  Money shot: (0+ / 0-)

    "Any uptick in Democratic optimism after the bill passage was offset by GOP pessimism."

    Kinda tough to "improve the bill" with congressional majorities bent on destroying it.

    Carry on.

  •  The folks over at firedoglake are vehemently.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    against the HCR bill. They claim the mandate is unconstitutional and the bill is anything but progressive. Why was this bill passed when even progressives are divided on it?

  •  GOP ahead, Dems behind . . . (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Julia Grey

    or, in other words, propaganda works!

    In other news, the sky is blue and grass is green.

    Why are the Democrats (helloooo! Tim Kaine!!!) nowhere to be heard when the Joseph Goebbels' Memorial Propaganda Factory cranks up another barrage?

    Bring back Howard Dean!!!

  •  Gvien the Firedoglake critique (0+ / 0-)

    The Firedoglake critique - to put it mildly - of the Bill raises the question of whether any of the GOP alternatives would address any of the 18 problems?

    Or are the Republicans content with running against the current Law but with no real desire to do anything about it?

  •  It's hopeless (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, tberry, TheEqualizer

    Until the "progressive movement" gets up off the couch or pushes away from the computer desk and gets out in the streets, it is hopeless. When liars like Mitch McConnel gain in the polls, it only proves that the electorate is (forgive me) too stupid to deserve better. Perhaps another 30 years of Republican/Corporate governance is what it will take to move this country in the right (by that I mean correct)direction. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Palin in 2012

  •  Re: How Many Words (0+ / 0-)


  •  Why are the Republican numbers getting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z

    better and the Democrats getting worse? The Republicans haven't done anything. The economy is turning around, more people will have health care coverage, taxes go down, they are now trying to do financial reform, student loan program better and cheaper. THE REPUBLICANS ARE LYING AND FIGHTING AGAIN THINGS NOT EVEN IN THE BILL. But their numbers gets better. The Democratic party has been busy doing things to benefit the country, and yet their numbers get worse.

    I say something is seriously wrong with the minds of too many American citizens.

    Doing nothing AND being MASSIVE LIARS=good numbers

    Trying and succeeding inspite of the nothing doer and massive liars= worsening numbers. Sounds asshole backwards to me.

    I said in one of my diaries, the teabaggers are trying to get people on the borderline who voted for Obama, to vote Republican the next time. They will peel off some of them.

    They will never get blacks to vote republican and i don't see the percentage of Latinos voting for Dems going down in the next election. They have played their recent southern strategy (racial fears), and it appear to be working.

  •  Misreading the polls (0+ / 0-)

    Once again, the poll results are being misunderstood and miscommunicated.

    If there is NOT more than 2.8 difference from period to period, there has been no change. The purpose of the sampling (and sampling error) is to represent a valid, random sample. That is all you need if you want to see change. If you aren't interested in understanding what random sampling is supposed to be for, then by all means go ahead.

    It's not math, it is sampling, and they are not the same thing.

  •  The Republicans and teabaggers have not (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z

    been called on their lies and obstructionism by the MSM. In fact our so-called free press is conplicit. Teabagger, Sarah, bachmann, glen hannity, o'reilly etc on 24/7.

    An example of their complicity; Beside MSNBC Rachel Maddow pointing out the ACORN unedited tapes cleared ACORN, the MSM DIDN'T SAY A WORD ABOUT IT. They didn't have a problem helping to spread the lies. It is obvious to me the MSM is the main problem.

  •  So I know that Obama cut my taxes (0+ / 0-)

    But despite that I still owed a few hundred extra. I imagine that some not so rational people in my situation are thinking that Obama raised their taxes.

    "Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is." - George W Bush

    by jfern on Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 03:18:30 PM PDT

  •  Mission Accomplished for craven corporate media& (0+ / 0-)

    The number of crazy people showing up for these teabagger rallies is miniscule; but our craven corporate media™ continue to cover this wall to wall, 24/7, like it's the Second Coming.

    For the corrupt corporate oligarchs guiding our media, it's win/win; they create a thoroughly false impression of conservative momentum, they keep the story line firmly focused on anti-Obama anger, and they suck all the oxygen out of the room for anything else. Anything like, oh, nuclear arms reduction, improving economic numbers, SEC action against the giant vampire squid, or passage of health insurance reform.

  •  We need to keep (0+ / 0-)

    pushing back against these un-American republican tea baggers.

    This is a important election.

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