Chris Dodd, floor manager for Wall Street reform, announced that debate on amendments to the bill will begin next week, and that there will probably be two weeks of debate.
As of yet, Reid and Dodd have not reached an agreement with McConnell and Shelby on process for amendments, either limiting them in number or on the vote threshold for them--whether they can pass with simple majorities or have 60 vote threshold. A source in the Senate Banking Committee told David Dayen that some amendments might be subject to the stricter threshold, but not all, saying "he did not believe Senator Dodd would place a 60-vote threshold on every amendment that comes to the floor."
Tim Fernholz at TAPPED has a pretty good primer on the dynamics to looks for as the bill moves forward. The whole thing is worth a read, but let's hone in on the amendments.
Bad Amendments Republicans [and some Democrats]* will bring up amendments that will likely include exemptions for specific industries -- auto dealers, payday lenders -- from consumer protection rules, federal preemption of state regulators, new loopholes in derivatives regulation, weaker prudential standards, and even radical redesigns of parts of the bill. While it won't be easy for Republicans to pass amendments in the face of a united Democratic caucus, playing to regional interests could result in a few successful poison pills. Republicans may even offer new language on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, an issue Democrats are reluctant to talk about -- they want to deal with it separately from the current legislation.
Good Amendments. Readers know about Sen. Jack Reed's plan to propose a truly independent consumer financial protection agency, and Sens. Kauffman and Brown's plan to strictly limit bank size and risk; both have real momentum behind them but could come under fire from leadership, (as with health care's public option) if they disturb agreements with moderate Democrats or potential Republican votes. Expect other progressive amendments on derivatives, executive compensation, and perhaps even re-instituting Glass-Steagall or a stronger Volcker rule.
For now, it's the good amendments that really need to be pushed, and need to have simple majority votes. Here are three of the most important: Jack Reed's strong, independent CFPA; the Kaufman-Brown SAFE Banking Act that ends too big to fail; and the Merkley-Levin PROP Trading Act that would apply Paul Volcker’s financial reform principles.
These are all high priority amendments that would give real teeth to this reform, and they should all get simple majority votes.
Update: Add one more: the Sanders' bipartisan effort to open the Federal Reserve to a serious audit by the GAO.
Sponsored by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the language is modeled after an amendment that passed the House, sponsored by Reps. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) and Ron Paul (R-Texas).
Sanders is joined by four Republicans of varying politics: John McCain (Ariz.), Jim DeMint (S.C.), David Vitter (La.) and Sam Brownback (Kan.). If Democrats in the Senate back the measure, it would have at least 63 votes, but Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) is opposed and has argued against a broad audit.
Update 2: The Fed Audit amendment has powerful opposition, despite its bipartisan support.
Obama administration officials have declined to weigh in on any specific amendments, with one exception: a move by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) to give the government more power to audit certain operations at the Federal Reserve. Fed and administration officials have signaled they would fight to stop it at all costs. Mr. Sanders has more than a dozen co-sponsors.
"I can't predict, but I think we've got a good chance to pass it," Mr. Sanders said.