As hard as it might be to believe, we are already one-third of the way through 2010. On this first day of May, we look at a campaign cycle that grows ever more busy. As a result, it will not be long before the Wrap ramps it up to a five-day-a-week feature again.
In this weekend edition, we get a GOP nominee in Minnesota, a GOP incumbent taking a walk in Florida (no...not this guy), and a handful of polls, to boot.
THE U.S. SENATE
FL-Sen: Crist Leads Three-Way Tabulation, According To GOP Pollster
The good news for Florida Governor and nouveau Independent Senate candidate Charlie Crist: a poll taken just before his announcement had Crist leading likely GOP nominee Marco Rubio in a three way Senate race (33-29), with Democrat Kendrick Meek well back at 15%. The bad news? The pollster thinks this is the high-water mark for Crist. Jim McLaughlin (who is one of the better-known numbers guys in the GOP) notes that Crist does surprisingly well in the poll with Democrats and African-Americans (getting 36% of the A-A vote). With an African-American Democratic candidate (Meek is the current frontrunner for the Dem nod, despite the presence of a well-heeled challenger in billionaire Jeff Greene), McLaughlin finds that it is pretty implausible that Crist's numbers will hold.
IN-Sen: Coats Leads Primary and General Elex, According to SUSA
Toward the end of the week, SUSA polled the upcoming primary election in Indiana, and found that establishment frontrunner Dan Coats (the former U.S. Senator) has a double-digit lead over the insurgent candidate, former Congressman John Hostettler (36-24). State legislator Marlin Stutzman could get involved in this race for the win, as well, polling at 18%. In the general election, SUSA paints a pretty dire picture for the Dems, putting presumptive Democratic nominee Brad Ellsworth well behind Coats (47-31) and Hostettler (45-32).
OH-Sen: Second Poll Confirms Fisher Move in Dem Primary
Just days before the Ohio primaries, the Democratic Senate primary is threatening to become one-sided, according to a new poll from Suffolk University. Suffolk's poll gives state Lt. Governor Lee Fisher a two-to-one edge over OH Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (55-27). Interestingly, the Quinnipiac poll in the state last week had both Brunner and Fisher leading presumptive GOP nominee Rob Portman by similar margins of 3-4 points.
THE U.S. HOUSE
FL-05: Brown-Waite Steps Down On Filing Deadline Day
After hinting at a retirement in February (even calling a press conference where everyone presumed a retirement announcement, only to announce she was remarrying), Republican Ginny Brown-Waite did it for real at the close of the week, retiring from the House. Brown-Waite, 66, immediately endorsed Hernando County Sheriff Richard Nugent. There might have been a little chicanery on the departing Congresswoman's part--she delayed the announcement until just a handful of hours before the filing deadline expired on Friday. A little-known candidate (Jason Sager) was already in the field, but the late announcement might have frozen the field for Nugent with regard to the bigger fish in the Florida 5th. Democrat Jim Piccillo is the Democratic nominee-in-waiting, as he was the only Dem to file.
In Florida filing news, there has to be some disappointment over the fact that Mario Diaz-Balart will switch from the 25th district to the 21st district with absolutely no problems: he was the only candidate to file in the 21st district. Democrats also failed to field candidates in the 1st, 4th, and 6th districts. Meanwhile, the Democrat that emerges from the crowded primary to replace Kendrick Meek in the 17th District will be practically assured of victory, as the GOP failed to file a candidate in this heavily-Dem district.
IN-03: Could A Class of '94 Incumbent Be Ready to Bite The Dust?
Well, it appears that yesterday's insurgent is today's establishment insider. According to a new poll by SUSA, eight-term incumbent Mark Souder leads self-funder Bob Thomas by just six points (35-29), with less than a week to go until their primary battle this Tuesday. Souder was one of the more conservative members of the Gingrich class of 1994, but his campaign skills are only so-so: despite a solidly GOP district, he has been held to 55% or less of the vote in the past two elections.
NH-01/NH-02: New UNH Poll Numbers Yucky For Granite State Democrats
If the polling center at the University of New Hampshire are correct, the GOP could nab two pickups in the Granite State alone. The new numbers (PDF) have Carol Shea-Porter trailing narrowly against three prospective GOP candidates (margins ranging from 3-4 points). Former GOP Congressman Charlie Bass does even better in the state's 2nd district, with a huge lead over Katrina Swett (44-27). If there is a small bright spot for the Dems, it is that Democrat Ann McLane Kuster (a member of our Orange to Blue list) comes a great deal closer to Bass (42-30) despite still being a comparably lesser-known challenger. It's early, but Kuster seems far, far more electable than Swett, despite her name recognition edge.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CO-Gov: Hickenlooper Has Monster Fundraising Quarter in Colorado
A lot of observers thought that Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper would be a definite upgrade for the Democrats in the Colorado gubernatorial election. Despite never having run statewide, few doubted his ability to raise money for a statewide election. That ability has quite effectively been put on display. Hickenlooper raised over $1.1 million dollars in his first quarter in the race, well ahead of likely GOP opponent Scott McInnis, who hauled in a little over a half-million dollars.
MN-Gov: Palin-Endorsee Emmer Scores Surprisingly Easy GOP Nod
Perhaps a bit of an object lesson in how convention-selected nominees might prove less electable than ones selected in primaries: state legislator Tom Emmer, whose biggest claim to fame to date was snagging Sarah Palin's endorsement, scored an easier than expected win at the Minnesota state GOP convention, emerging from it as the party nominee for Governor. Emmer defeated fellow state Rep. Marty Seifert, who might have been doomed with the role of the "establishment favorite" as the convention convened. Emmer's Democratic rival is yet to be determined. Former state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher emerged from the Democratic convention, but still has two primary rivals (former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton and legislator Matt Etenza) who did not participate in the convention.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Ras closes the week with data from a small handful of states, with no real surprises emanating from the House of Ras. The status quo essentially holds (at least, the status quo according to Ras) in Florida, Illinois, Nevada, and Delaware.
One interesting stat from Team Rasmussen: their monthly analysis of political self-identification finds that folks identifying themselves as Republicans has hit a nearly two-year low. The gap for April 2010 was Democrats 36.0%, and Republicans at 31.6%.
DE-Sen: Mike Castle (R) 55%, Chris Coons (D) 32%
FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) 37%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 22%
IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 45%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 38%
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R) 46%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38%
NV-Gov: Brian Sandoval (R) 53%, Rory Reid (D) 35%
NV-Gov: Mike Montandon (R) 45%, Rory Reid (D) 39%
NV-Gov: Rory Reid (R) 47%, Gov. Jim Gibbons (D) 37%
NV-Sen: Sue Lowden (R) 52%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 39%
NV-Sen: Danny Tarkanian (R) 51%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 41%
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 48%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 40%