I know there is quiet rejoicing in certain circles, over the thought that the Deepwater Horizon disaster will be the "Three Mile Island of offshore drilling." That is, the signal event that turns public opinion irrevocably against the industry.
Well, maybe. But having lived through the gas station lines of the 1970s, I wouldn't bet on it. Because I think the evidence shows that most Americans would give up almost anything—including a decent environment—before they'll give up what James Howard Kunstler calls our "easy motoring" lifestyle.
And don't you know that's how the Republicans and the oil industry will pitch it: Do you want to ban drilling, or do you want to keep driving your Explorer? They never let facts, such as the fact that new offshore production would make up only a small fraction of our oil use, get in the way of their greed. If it takes engineering a few shortages to make their point, well, that's just business.
With the Three Mile Island accident, people were never give a false choice like that: electricity derived from non-nuclear plants could meet the demand. And the nuclear industry never owned Washington the way the oil barons do today.
If anything, the Deepwater Horizon disaster may give the nuclear industry an opening to promote nuclear power as the "safer alternative".
I'm not completely sure they'd be wrong about that.