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In a front-page post about yesterday's primary results, it repeats the uncritical TradeMed "conventional wisdom" about the prospects of the Democrats retaining Evan Bayh's Senate seat. Yet there is a key tell that no real thinking has occurred about the flawed assumptions made in the race. Coats will not have key grass-roots support form the crucial GOP supporting special interest group (and voter segment) that the GOP has to have to win elections. The gun rights groups.

The NRA and other gun groups are a key base group that the GOP has to have to win but they won;t have it this time.

Both the Gun Owners of America and the NRA have come out against Coats' candidacy (announced prior to Tuesday's primary results). The NRA went so far as do a mailing stating that they will be supporting the Democratic nominee for this seat if Coats gets the GOP nomination due to his record on gun control. There will not be the same level of grass-roots support in the center-right libertarian segment of the voting population in his corner, which the GOP usually counts on.

Just ask yourself when was the last time the NRA announced they were preemptively going to ally with an as-yet determined Democratic candidate vs. a specific GOP candidate should the GOP candidate get the nomination?

I think the conventional wisdom on this one is, as is often the case, not matching up to reality.

To uncritically accept that presumed Democratic candidate Brad Ellsworth will be behind the eight-ball in this race is a mistake, which I am not sure why we Democrats are buying into.

Originally posted to Lestatdelc on Wed May 05, 2010 at 10:34 AM PDT.

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