Given the dearth of a mid-week Wrap (apologies for the technical difficulties), the weekend edition of the Wrap is fairly enormous, as would be expected.
The narrative in recent weeks has been that there might be some change in the climate for Democrats. At a minimum, the steady stream of bleak news and abysmal polling numbers seemed to have broken a bit.
This week's Wrap confirms that trend, with some halfway decent polling numbers in many places, including some from, of all places, the House of Ras.
Given the length of the Wrap, we don't want to steal the entire front page. Therefore, head below the fold for the "I can't possibly consume all of this data!" edition of the Polling and Political Wrap....
THE U.S. SENATE
AR-Sen: New Primary Poll Suggests Runoff Possible on the Dem Side
Mason-Dixon has gone into the field in the state of Arkansas this week, with new numbers looking at the primaries that are now less than two weeks away. On the Democratic side, there is around a 50/50 chance that the Democratic primary will go to an early June runoff election. Incumbent Blanche Lincoln leads with 44%, with challenger (and Orange-to-Blue candidate Bill Halter a handful of points back at 32%. The x-factor here is little-known Democrat D.C. Morrison, who draws 7% of the vote. If Halter can win the proponderance of the undecided voters, he gets three more weeks to make his case. On the GOP side, Congressman John Boozman is closer to the magic majority (48%), but there are still some folks that aren't discounting the possibility of a runoff there, as well.
In other Arkansas Senate news, Bill Halter has filed an FEC complaint about the nearly million-dollar ad buy by Americans for Job Security.
FL-Sen: Another Poll Confirms Crist Surge (at Meek's Expense?)
A new poll out of Florida by Mason-Dixon confirms the narrow lead for newly-Independent candidate Charlie Crist. It is also the second poll to confirm that Crist's boost might be coming from Democrats willing to flirt with abandoning likely Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. The Mason Dixon poll shows Crist out in front with 38% of the vote. Republican Marco Rubio trails with 32% of the vote, and Meek is well behind at 19%. Polls taken before Crist's decision to bolt the GOP had the three locked in what was essentially a three-way race. This seems to suggest that Meek's numbers are being surpressed by traditionally Democratic voters willing to support Crist now that he has finally taken the plunge.
KY-Sen: Lots of Dueling Polls In Exciting U.S. Senate Race
There is no shortage of data to digest in the Bluegrass State, with new polls that suggest that there is a clear difference in electability among the Democratic contenders for the seat of retiring Republican Jim Bunning. A new poll out this week from PPP shows Democratic attorney general Jack Conway trailing likely GOP nominee Rand Paul by a single point (41-40). The other Democrat in the field, Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo, trails Paul by a bit more (42-38). Against former GOP frontrunner Trey Grayson, the GOP leads are an identical eight points.
Meanwhile, new polls suggest that the Democratic primary is closer than the GOP primary. A new R2K poll in the state (not for Daily Kos, but for various media outlets) showed Jack Conway within seven points (39-32) against Mongiardo, while Rand Paul has a lead of a dozen points (44-32) over Trey Grayson. The Democratic poll seems to be a midpoint between two internal polls released this week, one from Conway showing him up four points, and one by Mongiardo showing him up by a dozen points. Conway is heading towards the finish line with a new ad which goes on a positive and biographical tack.
PA-Sen: Sestak Edges Ahead in Primary, According to Tracking Poll
This falls in line with recent trend lines, but it is a stunner, nevertheless: today's incarnation of the Muhlenberg College tracking poll out of Pennsylvania shows that Democratic challenger Joe Sestak has now edged ahead of incumbent Arlen Specter. Sestak draws 44% of the vote to just 42% for Specter. Earlier in the week, Specter held an eight-point edge over Sestak in the Quinnipiac poll of the Democratic Primary. Of course, Specter also held a similar lead in the Muhlenberg poll, as well, hinting that the situation might have altered dramatically in just the past couple of days. Also, a heads-up for our polling and campaign junkies: this week, DK/R2K will be back in the Keystone State to run some numbers of our own.
WA-Sen: Elway Poll Says Murray In Extremely Solid Shape
If there is a state where the polling has been all over the map, it is the Evergreen State of Washington, where the latest Elway Poll shows incumbent Democrat Patty Murray with a huge lead (51-34) over her strongest potential rival, former GOP gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi. Murray enjoys larger leads against other already declared GOP challengers (none of whom, for what it is worth, break 30%).
THE U.S. HOUSE
HI-01: DCCC To Take Ball, Go Home?
A fascinating development this week in the pending special election in Hawaii to replace longtime Democratic Rep. Neal Abercrombie. The DCCC is re-evaluating its support in the state, mindful of the nature of the primary (pure plurality--most votes wins) and the split Democratic vote between Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa. The logic might be to wait until November, when Republican Charles Djou would have to contend with either Case or Hanabusa mano-a-mano.
NH-02: Dem Field Thins With DeJoie Exit
John DeJoie has withdrawn from the Democratic primary to replace Paul Hodes in the House, endorsing Katrina Swett against Orange to Blue candidate Ann McLane Kuster. Following DeJoie's exit, Kuster picked up the endorsement of Planned Parenthood. (She had already been endorsed by NARAL Pro-Choice America, EMILY's List, and NOW.) - Laura Clawson
NM-01: Heinrich Has Big Lead In Campaign Internal Poll
I have noted in the past that it can often be a cause for concern if one party is releasing a lot of internal data while the other one does not. The rationale: if a campaign has good internal numbers, they'll often release them to build a sense of momentum/inevitability. With this in mind, the dearth of Democratic internal polling releases has been a little troubling. One potential trouble seat, however, looks pretty good for the Dems according to this campaign poll. New numbers for freshman Martin Heinrich in New Mexico show him up seventeen points (55-38) on Republican Jon Barela.
PA-12: Dueling Internals Showing Improving Picture For Dems
Recent public polling by both PPP and right here at Daily Kos gave a sure impression that Democrat Mark Critz was facing an uphill battle to retain this long-Democratic seat for the blue team. But new internal polling seems to indicate that the GOP still has a real fight on their hands. A GOP internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies has their man, businessman Tim Burns, up just two points over Mark Critz (43-41).
UT-02: Matheson Forced Into A Primary
Absolutely shocking news out of Utah on this Saturday, courtesy of the go-to source for election junkies: the Swing State Report. Democratic incumbent Congressman Jim Matheson, who has held down a House seat in the uber-red state of Utah for a decade, was forced into a primary this afternoon at the Democratic State Convention. Matheson drew 55% of the convention vote, while challenger Claudia Wright nailed down the support of 45% of the delegates. Convention rules dictate that a primary will occur if a candidate fails to attain 60% of the head-to-head convention vote. This is yet another sign (following closer-than-expected primaries for Heath Shuler and Larry Kissell) that the Democratic base is not going to be as accommodating about conservative Democrats as they have been in the past.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CT-Gov: Lamont Looking Good in Thinning Democratic Field
If a combination of public and internal polling is to be believed, Democrat Ned Lamont is in very good shape for 2010. The public poll is a new Rasmussen poll (in the Ras-a-Palooza below) showing Lamont now leading GOP frontrunner Tom Foley in the high single digits. The internal poll comes from Team Lamont (courtesy of pollster Garin-Hart-Yang), and shows him leading Democratic primary opponent Dan Malloy by a 53-18 margin. Meanwhile, the Democratic field thinned by one at the end of the week with the campaign of former state legislator Juan Figueroa shuttering its doors.
FL-Gov: M-D Poll--McCollum Vulnerable in Primary and General
An interesting poll out this week from Mason-Dixon confirms other recent data on a simple point: GOP Attorney General Bill McCollum has the governorship of Florida far from sewn up. The poll shows that Democrat Alex Sink has more than halved McCollum's lead in just two months. In March, it was a seemingly solid fifteen-point edge for the Republican. Today, it stands at just six points, with McCollum at 40% and Sink at 34%. McCollum also puts together a pretty meek performance for a frontrunner in the GOP primary. Newcomer Rick Scott draws 24% of the vote in a prospective primary, with McCollum at just 38%.
HI-Gov: Dems Looking Good To Pick Up GOP-Held Gov Seat in Hawaii
It might not be a certain pickup (like...say...the North Dakota Senate race), but Democrats are indeed looking well-positioned to take the governor's mansion in Hawaii that has been held for eight years by Republican Linda Lingle. With Lingle's Lt. Governor (Duke Aiona) as the GOP standard bearer, either Democratic hopeful holds the edge. Former Congressman Neal Abercrombie leads Aiona by a 49-35 margin, while Mufi Hannemann does only slightly worse, leading the Republican 48-35. The high-profile Democratic primary, to be held in September, is an early tossup. Abercrombie is sitting on 36% of the vote with Hannemann trailing with 32%.
IA-Gov: Incumbent Dem Chips Away At Severe Disadvantage, Says R2K
Research 2000, who furnishes Daily Kos with all of its polling data, has gone into the field on behalf of a media client in the Hawkeye State. While their Senate numbers raised the most eyebrows (see above), the gubernatorial numbers deserve some eyes of their own. The poll shows Democratic Governor Chet Culver has roughly halved his deficit against longtime former GOP Governor Terry Branstad. Branstad leads now by just seven points (48-41). Against the two other GOPers in the field (Rod Roberts and Bob VanderPlatts), Culver actually has a lead.
MN-Gov: Can GOP Hold Governorship in Minny? SUSA Thinks So
Chalk this up as one of the few really unpleasant surprises in this week's inbox. New numbers are out this week from SurveyUSA, and they have newly minted Republican nominee Tom Emmer leading all of the potential Democratic candidates for Governor. Emmer leads both former state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (41-33) and former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (42-34) by eight points. Democrat Matt Etenza also trails Emmer by a slightly wider margin (42-31). There is one demographic in the poll that raises eyebrows: SUSA sees a Minnesota electorate that is slightly more Republican (36%) than Democratic (35%). It is hard to say whether this polling result indicates that the sample was a bit more red than the state, or Emmer is a legitimate frontrunner, or he is merely basking in the afterglow of his nomination.
NY-Gov: Is Levy The NYGOP's $10 Million Man, Or Not?
A bizarre campaign story from a little while back has blown up in the face of a GOP gubernatorial hopeful. You might recall that Steve Levy, the Suffolk County politico who bolted the Democratic Party to seek the GOP nod for Governor, bragged that the Republican Governor's Association had promised him $10 million to try to seize the governor's mansion from Democratic frontrunner Andrew Cuomo. This led his primary rival for the GOP nod, former Congressman Rick Lazio, to call Levy out, alleging that Levy was lying about the RGA support. The RGA, for their part, also poured a lot of cold water on Levy, saying that they would wait for the party selection process to play out before jumping into the race. Furthermore, they also pointed out that they'd be unlikely to play the state if they didn't see a path to victory.
OR-Gov: SUSA Polls Primaries, And The Frontrunners Are Clear
SurveyUSA has shown a few signs of life, as of late. The automated pollster, which rivalled Rasmussen in its volume at one point in time, has been reasonably quiet in the 2010 cycle. They are out this week with new data in a few places (see Minnesota, above), including Oregon, which has a couple of potentially competitive primaries coming up in ten days. The poll hints that the primaries might not be quite as competitive as once thought. On the Democratic side, former Governor John Kitzhaber has a huge lead over former Sec. of State Bill Bradbury (54-16). The GOP side seems a little more muddled, with former NBA ballplayer Chris Dudley leading by double-digits, but only at 28% support.
PA-Gov: Polling Still Hinting At Solid Onorato Lead
With just ten days until the Pennsylvania primaries, the lead for Democratic gubernatorial aspirant (and Allegheny County Executive) Dan Onorato seems legitimate. A Quinnipiac poll from earlier in the week showed Onorato leading the field with 36%, well ahead of second-place Joe Hoeffel, who was back at 9%. The saving grace for Onorato seems to be the inability of anyone in that second tier (Hoeffel, Jack Wagner, and Anthony Williams) to break away from the field. The latest Muhlenberg College tracking poll confirms this, with Onorato at 35% and Hoeffel well back at 10%.
RI-Gov: Nominee-Less Democrats Train Sights on Indie Frontrunner
Rhode Island may be the one state in the Union where the Democrats are not levelling their toughest shots at the GOP. In this state, the target is on the back of former Republican Senator, and current Independent candidate for Governor, Lincoln Chafee. The Democratic Governors Association, awaiting a very competitive September primary, have launched a pair of websites gunning for the former one-term U.S. Senator.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Rasmussen is its usual prolific self this week, with a ton of data. While not all the data is good news for Democrats, it is worth noting that the proponderance of the results shows trend lines from previous Rasmussen polls that indicate some movement away from the GOP. Even some of the bad polls for Dems here (Indiana, for example) are marginally better than their predecessors.
CO-Sen: Jane Norton (R) 48%, Sen. Michael Bennett (D) 41%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 48%, Sen. Michael Bennett (D) 41%
CO-Sen: Tom Wiens (R) 44%, Sen. Michael Bennett (D) 42%
CO-Sen: Jane Norton (R) 46%, Andrew Romanoff (D) 41%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 45%, Andrew Romanoff (D) 40%
CO-Sen: Tom Wiens (R) 45%, Andrew Romanoff (D) 40%
CT-Gov: Ned Lamont (D) 42%, Tom Foley (R) 35%
CT-Gov: Ned Lamont (D) 48%, Michael Fedele (R) 28%
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 38%, Tom Foley (R) 35%
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 44%, Michael Fedele (R) 27%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 39%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 55%, Rob Simmons (R) 32%
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Peter Schiff (R) 29%
FL-Sen: Charlie Crist (I) 38%, Marco Rubio (R) 34%, Kendrick Meek (I) 17%
IN-Sen: Dan Coats (R) 51%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 36%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 50%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 48%, Elaine Marshall (D) 40%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 50%, Cal Cunningham (D) 37%
NC-Sen (D): Elaine Marshall 42%, Cal Cunningham 37%
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 46%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 45%
OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 43%, Rob Portman (R) 42%
WA-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 48%, Dino Rossi (R) 46%
WA-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 49%, Paul Akers (R) 35%
WA-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 52%, Don Benton (R) 38%
WA-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 51%, Clint Didier (R) 36%