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Funny how much smaller the weekend edition of the Wrap becomes when you actually have an edition or two (or four) during the week....

THE U.S. SENATE

CT-Sen: McMahon's curious homage to "Drill, baby, Drill!"
Well, you have to give Connecticut GOP Senate aspirant Linda McMahon scads of credit for timing. In a mailer sent out to Connecticut voters where she chronicles how to get Connecticut's economy moving again. One of her myriad answers: more oil drilling. Leaving aside for the moment that apparently only McMahon believes that the Long Island Sound is the new North Slope, maybe McMahon wanted to wait until BP figures out how to cap their Gulf oil volcano before playing that particular card?

IN-Sen: Indiana Senate battle is now joined--Ellsworth nominated
Less than two weeks after Indiana Republicans settled on their standard bearer (going back to the future in giving the nod to former Senator Dan Coats), Indiana Democrats used this weekend to formally replace retiring Senator Evan Bayh. As has long been expected, Congressman Brad Ellsworth will take the baton for the Democrats. Ellsworth has represented southern Indiana's 8th congressional district since 2006, when he blew out longtime incumbent John Hostettler.

PA-Sen: Tracking poll moves closer to parity in Keystone State
The Muhlenberg tracking poll has bounced around like a cork in a hurricane over the past two weeks, moving from a sizeable Specter lead to a modest Sestak lead and back to a tiny Specter lead. Today, it is essentially tied (PDF file). Specter holds just a one-point advantage over Sestak (44-43) in the new survey. Clearly, this will be the race of the night on Tuesday.

Also, this reminder: I will be previewing all the festivities on Tuesday in a special essay tomorrow morning during Sunday Kos.

THE U.S. HOUSE

OR-01: Primary poll points to Wu-Cornilles showdown
Someone (either the pollster or the television affiliate that sponsored the poll) must think that there might be a sleeper race in November in the great Northwest. That is the only justifiable reason why SurveyUSA decided to poll the primary elections in Oregon's 1st Congressional District, held rather easily for over a decade by Democrat David Wu. Wu is the sure victor on the Democratic side, but there is a semi-competitive primary on the Republican side. Sports business consultant Rob Cornilles (the establishment choice in the race) leads mortgage broker (and teabagger) John Kuzmanich by a 31-19 margin, with several other candidates further behind.

PA-04: Buchanan stumbling to finish line; ripe for the upset?
Former U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan was considered a tier-one recruit when she agreed earlier in the year to challenge sophomore Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire. Instead, her campaign has been mildly disastrous, and it is only getting worse. Buchanan's campaign has been hamstrung by repeated blows landed by GOP opponent Keith Rothfus, who is charging her with (ta-da!) insufficient conservatism. Yesterday, Buchanan went for a counterpunch, and failed miserably. She distributed copies of a printout which she claimed proved that Rothfus had been a Democrat for 13 years. The problem: the "evidence" proved nothing of the sort. All it proved was that Rothfus had been a Democrat at the time of the printout (something that he had already copped to, in an effort to keep Ed Rendell from being the gubernatorial nominee in 2002). This comes on the immediate heels of Buchanan getting dinged for using an NRA logo (presumably to imply an endorsement) without the organization's permission.

PA-12: Critz wins newspaper primary as race enters final weekend
We won't know until Tuesday evening whether Democrat Mark Critz will follow his former boss (the late Rep. John Murtha) into Congress. What we do know, however, is that Critz is the victor in the newspaper endorsement primary. Critz has earned the endorsement of virtually all of the district's newspapers. The sole exception: the right-wing Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, which endorsed Critz's Republican opponent, Tim Burns.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

AL-Gov: Dueling endorsements add intrigue to Democratic primary
Give Artur Davis credit for rapid response. Friday, Davis rolled out endorsements from two of the most prominent names in African-American politics. Both Congressman John Lewis (D-GA) and Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL) endorsed Davis' gubernatorial campaign. This came a day after two prominent African-American organizations in Birmingham (the Jefferson County Progressive Council and the New Jefferson County Citizens Coalition) had endorsed Ron Sparks for Governor, in part because of Davis' health care vote and in part because Davis had refused to meet with them.

Meanwhile, over on the GOP side of the gubernatorial fence, a new poll out from Baselice Associates hints at a two-man race for the nomination. The poll has Bradley "Don't Call Me A Believer in Science, Dammit" Byrne leading Tim "Son of Fob" James by a single point (24-23). Judge Roy Moore, somewhat surprisingly, has lost a bit of ground, running third with 18% of the vote.

FL-Gov: Famous name could complicate Democratic primary
Less than a month after Republican frontrunner Bill McCollum's path to the nomination got waylaid by the late candidacy of hospital mogul Rick Scott, Democratic frontrunner Alex Sink got some surprising news of her own: she, too, might have a high-profile primary challenger. In Sink's case, the potential challenger is Lawton "Bud" Chiles III, the son of the former Governor who served during much of the 1990s. While there had been some intraparty grumbling about Sink's campaign, her position had improved substantially over the past month or so, and she was now within striking distance of McCollum and slightly ahead of Scott.

NY-Gov: The longest exploratory period ever due to end?
After what seems like several years as a presumed-yet-undeclared candidate, it now looks like we are just a few weeks away from an Andrew Cuomo gubernatorial announcement. Teagan Goddard cites a Bloomberg report, which states that Cuomo will announce sometime around the end of this month, probably coinciding with the state Democratic Convention.

PA-Gov: Stagnation on Dem side heading into final weekend
The field appears to be frozen in the Democratic primary to replace Governor Ed Rendell, and that is good news for Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato. According to this morning's (PDF file) Muhlenberg tracking poll, Onorato still holds a substantial lead (38-14) over Philly-area state senator Anthony Williams, with Joe Hoeffel and Jack Wagner further back. In other Keystone State gubernatorial news, Dan Onorato picked up a trio of endorsements in the Lehigh Valley on Friday, including the endorsement of Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan, who is the likely Democratic nominee to challenge Charlie Dent in the 15th district.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

(Awesome new title for this segment courtesy of Mark27)

The House of Ras closes the week issue-heavy, rather than campaign heavy. The end result--just a pair of new states get covered by the monstrously prolific pollster. In California, we will be waiting on the gubernatorial numbers, but we have some interesting Senate numbers to tide us over. And Idaho is Idaho, which is not necessarily good news for Democrats.

CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 42%, Tom Campbell (R) 41%
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 46%, Chuck DeVore (R) 40%
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 45%, Carly Fiorina (R) 38%
ID-Gov: Gov. Butch Otter (R) 54%, Keith Allred (D) 32%
ID-Sen: Sen. Michael Crapo (R) 66%, Tom Sullivan (D) 22%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat May 15, 2010 at 07:30 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Drill, Baby, Drill!....Linda McMahon style (7+ / 0-)

    Ted Mann deserves the credit for noticing this one. Here's what I wrote over at the Connecticut blog MyLeftNutmeg about this.

    Ted Mann at The Day notices Linda McMahon's current mailer Preserving the American Dream is slightly off-kilter from public opinion.

    Hard to see, but it details the need for reviewing and repealing burdensome regulations, such as addressing onerous safety issues one assumes. And of course the joys of offshore drilling which create jobs and increase energy supply, all without any cost to the taxpayer. How magical.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Sat May 15, 2010 at 07:38:45 PM PDT

  •  Parroting lobbyists won't help McMahon either (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Scarce, Randall Sherman, KingofSpades

    Increase offshore drilling and production:
    Offshore drilling will create jobs and increase energy supply without cost to the taxpayer. It will create revenues for financially strapped state governments and increase revenues for federal governments.
    According to an American Energy Alliance report, drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) would generate:
    $8 trillion in economic output to the GDP
    $2.2 trillion in total tax receipts
    1.2 million jobs annually across the country
    $70 billion in additional wages each year

    this should be unrecoverable for her attempt to run a generic campaign (GOP appears nowhere on her recent print mailer) since there will be an oil layer "the size of Connecticut" in the Gulf that cannot be seen on the surface.

    "...calling for a 5" deck gun is not parody. Not by a long shot." (gnaborretni)

    by annieli on Sat May 15, 2010 at 07:38:54 PM PDT

  •  Steve, I have to ask.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    How much would it be to do a US Rep poll, say a 3 or 4-way?  I have someone who would be interested, and I'd love to find out..

    Heck, Maybe a Ras, as they lean right-wing (though hopefully NOT always Rep)

    •  Call Public Policy Polling.. (0+ / 0-)

      Being automated, they have better rates and they are a democratic firm.

      DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
      LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

      by LordMike on Sat May 15, 2010 at 08:59:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  No Blanche Lincoln is not a "centrist" (3+ / 0-)

    MSNBC characterizes poor Blanche Du Lincoln as "fighting from the middle". They seem to forget she filibustered Bob Dole's health care plan (aka Obama's health care plan) as being too "liberal". That would put her well to the right of Bob Dole.

    Halter is a centrist Democrat, Lincoln a right wing Democrat to the right of GOP'er Dole.

    MSM no fixed standards. If Satan and two devils are running, MSM parses them as right, center and left even though all are for torture, racism, greed, avarice, adultery...aka Republicans.

  •  Lawton Chiles is running (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Miss Blue, Mr SeeMore, cany

    Lawton "Bud" Chiles III, the 57-year-old son of the late governor, is seriously looking at running against Democrat Alex Sink for governor. He has been talking to friends and family across the state.

    "He's got some very strong convictions and a yearning for a Florida that was simpler and more about solving its problems than what we see today,'' said his wife, Kitty Chiles.

    A Tallahassee resident, Chiles has been walking across Florida promoting children's issues, vocally and bluntly criticizing Florida's leadership and the direction the state is heading.

    "If I had to put odds on it, I'd put it at 80/20  that he's likely to be a candidate for governor in 2010,'' said Ron Sachs, who used to work for Gov. Chiles.

    His father did the same thing in 1970 when he ran for U.S. Senate.

    Word is though that while he has the name Chiles will be hard-pressed to take on the well-financed Sink.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Sat May 15, 2010 at 07:46:52 PM PDT

    •  I read that as Lawless Chiles. And some (0+ / 0-)

      really interesting images occurred shortly thereafter.

      866-338-1015 toll-free to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them.

      by cany on Sat May 15, 2010 at 08:27:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Will be interesting, but Sink still has edge (0+ / 0-)

      I wrote a blog/diary pm the race earlier today.

      Sink has $6.2M in the bank and is the only Democrat on the ballot this year to have run a successful statewide campaign. I think that will matter a lot.

      But I like primaries if only because it raises awareness of the race and gets the name of the eventual winner on the tips of voter tongues.

      Please check out my blog Rantings From Florida. Someone has to do it.

      by Southernlib on Sun May 16, 2010 at 06:34:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Why oh why Ellsworth (0+ / 0-)
    Why did he throw his career away on this race?  
  •  Looks like Critz might win on Tuesday (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, LordMike, KingofSpades

    What I think is the only independent poll of the race, showed him with a 6 point lead. Bill Clinton is doing a rally for him tomorrow, and Bob Casey on Monday. I know he is very conservative, running against the healthcare bill(although NOT in favor of repeal), but I wonder if some pundits will change their view of November a bit if Critz wins.  

    •  I agree, Critz winning is key to the narrative. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, LordMike, cany

      Cook Reports has (quietly) moved it from Lean GOP to Toss-up recently.

      Cold hearted orb/That rules the night/Removes the colours From our sight/Red is gray and/Yellow white/But we decide/Which is right/And/Which is an Illusion

      by KingofSpades on Sat May 15, 2010 at 08:22:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

        Someone mentioned that, and I was wondering if the rating was for the special election or the general. The general will still be difficult for Critz, I think, but yeah, definitely the narrative matters. I think Dems should also prepare for a likely loss in the HI special election next weekend. Although it looks like most voters there, maybe even as much as 60%, will vote for a Dem, but it will be split between two candidates. Hopefully, if that is the case, Dems really emphasize that, since GOP will be bragging about how they won this seat.

    •  I think Critz is the favorite now (0+ / 0-)

      If he loses, its going to major, major trouble.  This is a bellwether race.  

      •  one poll does not a favorite make... (0+ / 0-)

        PPP is polling this weekend... they tweeted that their early results show a tossup.

        Only one poll the last month has shown Critz ahead... how can he be the favorite.

        For what it's worth, Marc Ambinder blogged a few weeks ago that the WH is not that worried about PA-12.

        DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
        LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

        by LordMike on Sat May 15, 2010 at 09:14:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, a Critz internal poll showed him 8 ahead (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          v2aggie2

          while a Burns internal showed it deadlocked at 45-45.

          Cold hearted orb/That rules the night/Removes the colours From our sight/Red is gray and/Yellow white/But we decide/Which is right/And/Which is an Illusion

          by KingofSpades on Sat May 15, 2010 at 09:17:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Mollohan (WV-1)'s internal poll.... (0+ / 0-)

            ....had him 8 ahead, too, and he lost by 12.

            no one thought he was a frontrunner, regardless of his internal polls...

            DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
            LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

            by LordMike on Sat May 15, 2010 at 09:33:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, but Oliverio's internals had Oliverio ahead. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jj32

              Furthermore, turnout was piss-poor for the primary.

              Cold hearted orb/That rules the night/Removes the colours From our sight/Red is gray and/Yellow white/But we decide/Which is right/And/Which is an Illusion

              by KingofSpades on Sat May 15, 2010 at 09:35:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, that's why I think Critz might be (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            a slight favorite.  Two things that Critz may benefit from is, Dem turnout for the Senate primary, and the fact that, it seems at least, that Burns has a strong primary challenge from William Russell, while Critz, I dont think has a strong challenge on the Dem side. But it will be close, certainly wouldnt count out Burns at all.

        •  I dont think the poll was from last month (0+ / 0-)

          was it? The Susquehanna poll was from like a week ago, I thought, which had Critz by 6%.

          •  I'm talking about other polls... (0+ / 0-)

            ...that had him ahead...  Susquehena is the first one in a month with a Critz lead.

            DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
            LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

            by LordMike on Sat May 15, 2010 at 09:42:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You mean showing Burns ahead? (0+ / 0-)

              I didnt know there were any independent polls that had Burns ahead. Seems like a lot of them were internal polls from both campaigns.

              •  PPP hade a poll of Burns ahead... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                ...and several others had him tied or narrowly ahead for the past several weeks.  Charlie Book even rerated the race to lean republican (until this week when he moved it back to tossup).

                DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
                LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

                by LordMike on Sat May 15, 2010 at 10:20:19 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Charlie Book? lol, that's a better name for him (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike

                  Cold hearted orb/That rules the night/Removes the colours From our sight/Red is gray and/Yellow white/But we decide/Which is right/And/Which is an Illusion

                  by KingofSpades on Sat May 15, 2010 at 10:21:34 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Tried to post a reply and it (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike

                  didnt go through it seems. Sorry if this double posts. But yeah, you are right, I hda forgotten about the PPP poll. Although that was taken some time ago. I think, overall, Critz seems like he is in good position to win, going into the final few days, and I dont think many would have predicted that.

        •  A newspaper poll showed it a six point lead (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32

          for Critz early in the week.  Another Republican poll showed it eight points for Critz.

  •  Those CA Boxer/Campbell numbers (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, esquimaux, xsonogall

    give me a real damn headache.

    Scary stuff.

    866-338-1015 toll-free to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them.

    by cany on Sat May 15, 2010 at 08:24:43 PM PDT

    •  i'm counting on Boxer (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, jj32, v2aggie2, xsonogall

      to pour it on once she has an opponent. Campbell would be a tough challenger for sure. He's the kind of "moderate" repub that newspaper editors love, if you define "moderate" as "extremely conservative but not quite batshit crazy".

      "Great is the guilt of an unnecessary war" - John Adams

      by esquimaux on Sat May 15, 2010 at 08:34:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Tom Campbell is moderate, but he's not a vigorous (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Corneliusmingus, cany

        campaigner.  Fiorina is fiery and can give Boxer a run for her money in the debates, but Campbell is much more subdued.

        Cold hearted orb/That rules the night/Removes the colours From our sight/Red is gray and/Yellow white/But we decide/Which is right/And/Which is an Illusion

        by KingofSpades on Sat May 15, 2010 at 08:36:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Damnit, that Muhlenberg poll... (0+ / 0-)

          ...is disappointing as hell.

          Looks like Specter's stopped the bleeding a bit. I was hoping Sestak's momentum was going to keep on getting strong a la Scott Brown's.  

          Guess it's all about GOTV now.  I'll be calling my relatives in PA.

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Sat May 15, 2010 at 08:47:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, he didnt do very well in 2000, but (0+ / 0-)

          it seems like he could be a stronger candidate this time. Money might be an issue too. Fiorina can self fund, which I think is why a lot of the DC Republicans probably want her to win. Last I checked Boxer has 8 million cash on hand, and Campbell 1 million. I do wonder how much the GOP is going to spend on this race, if Fiorina doesnt win the primary.

        •  Well, not going to be Fiorina. I couldn't take (0+ / 0-)

          it, and given her history with hp, I have to wonder how the biz pages would see it.

          So if it is campbell, maybe I shouldn't feel quite so bad given it seems it could be worse with Fiorina.  She just doesn't seem to be ringing them bells.

          Whose running her campaign?

          866-338-1015 toll-free to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them.

          by cany on Sat May 15, 2010 at 10:14:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Boxer always overperforms her polling. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cany

      Though given how messed up things are in California these days, you never know.

    •  I don't think she'd beat Campbell (0+ / 0-)

      but a social liberal can not win the GOP nomination here, it'll be Fiorina and Boxer will eke out a win against her ala Feinstein over Huffington in '94.

      Visit Druggybear's Den: www.druggybear.com

      by Druggy Bear on Sat May 15, 2010 at 10:49:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Boxer will win (0+ / 0-)

      I think that Tom Campbell is too liberal for CA Republicans and the far right won't come out for him.

  •  Lawton Chiles III (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mr SeeMore

    FWIW, Chiles is a first cousin of Sen. Kay Hagen (D-NC).

  •  Here is the thing about Specter and Sestak. (0+ / 0-)

    Fishing Flounders. They hit the bait hard and let go. Then, they sneak up to the bait.

    That's the time to set the hook.

    Come here Specter, Specter. I have some goodies for you.

    "They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

    by JugOPunch on Sat May 15, 2010 at 09:38:30 PM PDT

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