New thread! And the polls will soon close in Pennsylvania, where we'll watch the Democratic Senate primary returns, as well as the House special election in PA-12. The Beltway CW is that if the Democrat Mark Critz holds the seat, the Dems hold the House. If the Republican Tim Burn wins, then the GOP will knock Speaker Pelosi into the minority. It's bullshit CW, but there it is.
In Kentucky, Conway just got a huge boost out of Jefferson County, where his margin is now 25,000 votes. Statewide, that pushes Conway to a 50.6-37.4 lead, and a 26,000-vote advantage. It's going to be a lot closer than this once the rural counties report.
Update: Oh yeah, AP has now officially called the GOP contest for Rand Paul. I predicted a 10-point Paul victory. Right now, with 37.5 percent reporting, Paul has a 23-point lead.
Update II: With 39 percent of precincts reporting, Mongiardo has 38.2 percent of the Democratic vote right now, which is 79,557 votes.
Rand Paul has 78,618 votes.
Update III: The WaPo's Aaron Blake tweets:
Hearing that Mongiardo camp worried about low turnout in rural counties. Louisville is a different story.
One man's worry is another's hope.
Update IV: Nate's new calculation:
Our super-simple extrapolation now shows Conway projected to win 45.9-41.9. Margin of error is definitely too large to come to any conclusions.
For the record, I predicted yesterday that Conway would win 46-44.