Democrats surging ahead in several key races-perhaps looking at minimal losses now
At the beginning of 2010 with the election of Scott Brown in MA, it appeared that the democrats hold on the senate was shockingly tenous. For most of this year, it appeared that we would hold onto the senate but likely by just a 52-48 or 51-49 margin at most.
However, since President Obama has surged back above 50% or reached 50% in most public opinion surveys, the 2010 senate dynamics have seem to have changed as well. His uptick in popularity has affected several races. Sestak is a unique situation in PA of course. Obama at 50% does miraculous things. That's why I am fixated on that number.
Initially, it looked like we were going to lose North Dakota, Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Illinois, California, Washington, Colorado and Wisconsin. The polls were dead even or we were behind in all of those states.
Things have changed.
We now are slightly ahead in OH, close in MO, FL is a toss-up, PA is moving back our way and Sestak is now in the lead 46-42, Reid is tied in Nevada, Bennett is ahead in Colorado again and recent polls show us soldifying WA and CA.
Take a look:
2010 California Senate Race
California Senate - Boxer vs. Campbell
Poll Date Sample Boxer (D) Campbell (R) Spread
RCP Average 3/9 - 5/16 -- 43.7 41.7 Boxer +2.0
PPIC 5/9 - 5/16 1168 LV 46 40 Boxer +6
Rasmussen Reports 5/12 - 5/12 500 LV 42 41 Boxer +1
Field 3/9 - 3/15 748 LV 43 44 Campbell +1
2010 Colorado Senate Race
Colorado Senate - Norton vs. Bennet
Poll Date Sample Norton (R) Bennet (D) Spread
RCP Average 1/11 - 5/16 -- 42.7 41.7 Norton +1.0
PPP (D) 5/14 5/16 1060 LV 41 44 Bennet +3
Rasmussen Reports 5/3 - 5/3 500 LV 48 41 Norton +7
R2000/Daily Kos (D) 1/11 - 1/13 600 LV 39 40 Bennet +1
2010 PA senate race
Sestak-46%/Toomey-42%
Ohio Senate - Portman vs. Fisher
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Fisher (D) Portman (R) Spread
RCP Average 3/20 - 5/5 -- 40.5 39.8 Fisher +0.7
Rasmussen Reports 5/5 - 5/5 500 LV 43 42 Fisher +1
Quinnipiac 4/21 - 4/26 1568 RV 40 37 Fisher +3
R2000/Daily Kos (D) 4/5 - 4/7 600 LV 43 39 Fisher +4
NV has tightened as well.
So now, the only seats we seem sure to lose are IN, ND, and DE.
So we go from 59-56 based on that but if we win OH/FL/MO, we're back up to 59.
Holding PA as we now have a good chance of doing holds us at 59. If we lose AK or Illinois, we go to at worst 57 seats. However, I think Halter will be strong in the GE and may pull it off with Arkansas's historic democratic leanings at the state level at least.
There is even a chance that we increase our majority to 60-40 once again. The polls are looking THAT good now.
The fly in the ointment is the BP Oil spill, the Wall Street Meltdown and the jobless situation which had disturbing numbers today.
If those 3 issues go away, we are in excellent shape.
As far as the house goes, no way do we lose it. PA-12 is ample proof of why we won't.