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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/24-26. Likely Democratic primar voters. MoE 5% (5/10-12 results)

Democratic primary

Blanche Lincoln (D) 44
Bill Halter (D) 47
Undecided 9


Lincoln 59/36 (61/35)
Halter 63/21 (65/17)

Lincoln seems stuck  in the mid 40s, as she has for weeks. Halter scooped up all the undecideds during the first round primary, and continues that trend in the runoff period. All the negative ads from all sides continue to do little to dent both candidates' favorability ratings.

There is a huge gender gap, with Halter winning women 51-39, while Lincoln wins men 49-43. African Americans continue to poll strongly for Halter, and he wins this key demographic 58-28. Lincoln has a slight edge among white voters, 47-45.

Same poll, but general election sample, among likely voters, MoE 4%:

Blanche Lincoln (D) 38 (40)
John Boozman (R) 58 (54)

Bill Halter (D) 42 (41)
John Boozman (R) 53 (50)


Lincoln 37/58 (39/55)
Halter 47/37 (47/34)
Boozman 52/34 (45/34)

Boozman got a sizable victory boost, making big favorability gains among Republicans and Independents. If Lincoln wins, this seat is a guaranteed goner. No way she makes up that ground as an incumbent in a red state in an anti-incumbent year. She's dead, dead, dead. If Halter wins, he should get his own boost, but he'll certainly start the race as the underdog.

Lucky for him, he'll be the outsider running against a 10-year DC entrenched incumbent. That's not a bad place to be in 2010.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu May 27, 2010 at 10:58 AM PDT.

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