This Tuesday, early voting will begin in the runoff between Bill Halter and Blanche Lincoln. The race promises to be a nail-biter, and the final result is up for grabs.
With this in mind, I decided to look at the results of the May 18th vote and see what trends may provide insight as we head towards the June 8th.
First, here is some information on my background as it relates to this race. I live in Northeast Texas (Kilgore, to be precise), which is about 100 miles from the Arkansas state line (Texarkana, to be precise). In 2004, I worked on the Arkansas Coordinated Campaign in Texarkana. John Kerry was at the top of the ticket, and our primary focus was there, but Blanche Lincoln was also part of the ticket. Our literature basically revolved around Kerry and Lincoln.
This year, I am supporting Bill Halter in the primary.
First, let’s summarize raw numbers from May 18th:
Lincoln: 44.52%
Halter: 42.50%
Morrison: 12.98%
Counties Won (75 counties in Arkansas)
Lincoln: 39 counties
Halter: 36 counties
Well, these raw numbers show what we already know – it is a close race!
So let’s go to the analysis.
As has been noted, President Obama is supporting Blanche Lincoln in this race. On the surface, the endorsement of someone who lost badly in 2008 in Arkansas with only 39% would seem to be meaningless and even counterproductive.
But a closer look at the results shows the benefits of President Obama’s endorsement. Here is a breakdown of the 2008 results with respect the number of counties won
McCain: 66 counties
Obama: 9 counties
Yes, Barack Obama won only 9 counties in 2008. But Blanche Lincoln won 8 of these 9 counties on May 18th. This is an undeniable correlation. In fact, Lincoln won over 50% of the vote in each of these 8 counties. In the lone county that went for Halter – St. Francis – he got 48% and won the county by about 5 points. Lincoln won each of the other 8 counties by at least 8 points.
The difference, I believe, in these counties lies in the fact that these counties have larger African-American populations percentage-wise. Advertising and calls utilizing President Obama played a role in helping Lincoln win these counties. It should be noted that Lincoln had some issues to deal with in terms of the African-American community. In particular, she received criticism for failing to nominate any African-Americans for federal judicial positions. So this assistance from President Obama was probably necessary from the standpoint of Blanche Lincoln.
However, of these 8 counties, there is one county that could still be considered a surprise. That would be Pulaski County – the largest county in the state. This is the home of Bill Halter, and more progressive in general. It would seem to be an area where an insurgent candidate could take control. However, Blanche Lincoln won Pulaski County by 13 points.
Based on Lincoln’s success in the counties that Barack Obama won would seem to be a good omen for her campaign. I would have expected these counties to be her weakest, while her strength would be in rural Arkansas. Lincoln herself comes from rural Arkansas. And she touts her agriculture credentials (I believe she comes from a farming family) because rural Arkansas has constituted a significant and reliable base for her.
Really, based on the control of the 9 counties that Lincoln achieved, the election should have been a done deal for her. Rural Arkansas is her strength
But a funny thing happened on the way to that victory...
Rural Arkansas proved to be up for grabs. A look at the 66 counties carried by John McCain in 2008 reveals the following results from May 18th.
Halter: 35 counties
Lincoln: 31 counties
Yes, Halter actually won more counties in these rural counties. I would have expected a much better result for Lincoln – in fact, I would have expected her to clearly win more counties in this group. But this did not happen. And that’s why we have a runoff.
So what happened in these 66 counties?
Well, for one, DC Morrison happened.
As we know, DC Morrison was the Tea Party candidate in Democratic Primary – and easily the most conservative. In fact, when hearing him talk, all I could say was, "Shouldn’t you be running in the Republican primary?" He has endorsed Republican John Boozman in the general election
Yet this no-name 3rd candidate, through his double-digit support, helped make a runoff happen. And the areas where his impact was felt the greatest was in rural Arkansas. In particular, Morrison won 20% or more of the vote in 10 of the state’s 75 counties. Of these counties, Halter won 6, while Lincoln won 4. In terms of depth, Morrison exceeded his statewide percentage of 12.98% in 45 of the state’s 75 counties. And this strength was seen entirely in the 66 counties won by McCain.
In the 9 counties that Barack Obama won, Morrison peaked at 10.55% in Woodruff County. Obama received 51.14% in 2008 here, the lowest percentage among the counties that he won. Blanche Lincoln received 50.21% in Woodruff County, winning the county by 11 points over Halter. In each of the other 8 counties, Morrison was in single-digits. Needless to say, these counties were not his strongest.
The question then is, what impact did Morrison have in the 66 McCain counties?
Well, I think it was significant. Rural Arkansas has a lot of elected Democrats at the local level, but can also be fairly conservative. I saw a quote in the New York Times from a "moderate" Democrat who said she was against the health care bill. I think that just about everywhere else, we would call that person a very conservative Democrat.
In a two-way race, Blanche Lincoln would have had a significant advantage. As stated previously, she is from rural Arkansas, and has emphasized rural Arkansas issues such as agriculture. Halter, by contrast, is from the Little Rock area. It’s not New York City. But by Arkansas standards, it is a different world from the rural areas.
However, the conservative nature of rural Arkansas that would ordinarily help a less liberal candidate such as Blanche Lincoln has instead diluted this support because DC Morrison, a right-wing conservative, is fitting this conservative vision better than Blanche can. In the end, many still resisted Morrison, either because they thought he was too conservative or too unknown. Still, it can be seen that the inclusion of DC Morrison hurt Blanche Lincoln in rural Arkansas.
And yet – this isn’t the whole story. Bill Halter won over 50% of the vote in 7 counties – all rural counties carried by John McCain. By contrast, Blanche Lincoln won over 50% of the vote in only 5 of these McCain-controlled counties. In short, Halter won clear majorities in 20% of the McCain counties that he won – majorities that would have occurred even in a two-way race.
Bill Halter’s strongest areas were in Southwest Arkansas and Northeast Arkansas. It is in these areas where he won most of his counties. Of these two areas, Southwest Arkansas was Halter’s strongest region. Of the 7 counties where Halter exceeded 50%, his top 6 totals were in Southwest Arkansas. Among the highlights – Halter won over 60% of the vote in both Little River and Miller Counties. And if you believe in a place called Hope, well, Halter carried Hempstead County (Hope is the county seat) with 52% of the vote and a 19 point margin.
With all this in mind, how will Morrison voters impact the runoff? Here are the plausible scenarios in no particular order:
- Morrison voters stay home
- Morrison voters vote for Blanche Lincoln because she is less liberal
- Morrison voters vote for Blanche Lincoln because she easier to beat in the fall
- Morrison voters vote for Bill Halter because he is not the incumbent
Scenario 1 obviously benefits neither candidate. However, there are clear advantages that can benefit candidates in Scenarios 2 through 4. Overall, I give Blanche Lincoln an advantage with respect to the DC Morrison votes. But it isn’t a huge advantage, and it can vary from county to county – significantly. I think all 4 scenarios will come into play, and the campaigns need to consider them as they try to get their vote out in the runoff.
With respect to overall momentum, this would appear to benefit Bill Halter. Since his initial announcement, he has been steadily gaining ground on Blanche Lincoln -- trailing by only 2 points on May 18th. If this trend continues at the same rate, I think he gets the nomination. However, if there is a point of diminishing returns – a flattening out that represents a peak – then Lincoln may yet pull it out.
I think the momentum will have a greater impact from the standpoint of turnout. In this case, it is Halter’s momentum vs. the machine of the Democratic Party of Arkansas. But one thing the machine lacks this time is organized labor, which is solidly behind Halter. Still, DPA can’t really be counted out. The party in Arkansas has had a lot of control in the past (hence, the lack of primary challenges). And, well, they don’t like Halter, so they may be even more motivated
So here are some keys to victory.
For Blanche Lincoln, a major key to victory, I believe, is to get a strong majority of the DC Morrison voters. That will translate into gaining the upper hand in rural Arkansas, and a likely victory. Really, she should already have this advantage. That she doesn’t is not a good sign for her campaign.
For Bill Halter, a major key to victory, I believe, is to convince Arkansas Democrats that he has a better chance in the fall. I believe this to be true, and I think that this was a key factor in Joe Sestak’s victory over Arlen Spector. This may yield some Lincoln voters that choose to switch over to Halter. And it may reduce margins in core Democratic counties carried by Obama in 2008, where I believe Democrats are most motivated.
But really, the biggest key for both campaigns – and it is cliché – is turnout. We will get our first clue on overall turnout on Tuesday when early voting begins. I would guess that the momentum that Bill Halter currently has will give him an advantage in turnout. At the same time, the machine associated with the Democratic Party of Arkansas gives Blanche Lincoln an advantage in terms of turnout.
So who will win – momentum or the machine?
That’s why we have elections!