In the previous diaries about Wisconsin we can see support for T Baldwin, and finally she will be the third democrat from Wisconsin in this series while new votes tell not other thing.
That mean the people here is thinking in the retirement of the veteran senator H Kohl (born in 1935) what must run for the reelection in 2012, and that mean the people think in T Baldwin as the best candidate for succeed him in the short or mid-term.
Today, like for all the states, I start checking the strength of the third democrat in this series against the more prominent republicans in his/her home state. The first republican from Wisconsin is a former senator in the 80s what still is enough young for I take in consideration him. R Kasten runs three times for senate. The first, in 1980, he defeats G Nelson former democratic senator (48%-50%). The second, in 1986, he defeats E Garvey by low margin (47%-51%). And the third, in 1992, B Kasten loses his seat against R Feingold (53%-46%). R Kasten was not a strong senator. He is retired since very much years but I can not forget him for a complete view about the blue states in this series when some others like T Branstad of D Coats are returning and running again.
I remember and update from previous diaries the structure of this series.
RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER LEVEL OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS
- Maine: 2/2 Senate.
- Nevada: 1/2 Senate. Governor. 1/3 House. Lieutenant Governor.
- Iowa: 1/2 Senate. 2/5 House. 2 Statewide officers.
- Massachusetts: 1/2 Senate.
- New Hampshire: 1/2 Senate.
- Hawaii: Governor. 1/2 House. Lieutenant Governor.
- New Jersey: Governor. 5/13 House. Lieutenant Governor.
- Minnesota: Governor. 3/8 House. Lieutenant Governor.
- California: Governor. 19/53 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
- Vermont: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
- Connecticut: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. (Without include J Lieberman).
- Rhode Island: Governor.
- Delaware: 1/1 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
- Michigan: 7/15 House. 2 Statewide Officers. MI Senate majority.
- Wisconsin: 3/8 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
- Pennsylvania: 7/19 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer. PA Senate majority.
- Illinois: 7/19 House.
- Washington: 3/9 House. 2 Statewide Officers.
- Colorado: 2/7 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
- Oregon: 1/5 House.
- Maryland: 1/8 House.
- New York: 2/29 House.
- New Mexico: 1 Statewide Officer.
The links in the state names go to my diaries about gerrymander redistricting (allways finding the limits) for these states in Swing State Project.
My way for redistrict New York is recogniced as winner in Swing State Project Contest for this state with nice words. Thanks to SSP.
For national level: With a consolidated blue ticket we can look to republican side.
REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM BLUE STATES BY SERIOUSNESS.
- Timothy James Pawlenty: MN 1960 Governor of MN 03-11.
- George Elmer Pataki: NY 1945 Governor of NY 95-06.
- Willard Mitt Romney: MI MA 1947 Governor of MA 03-07. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 94.
- Rudolph William Louis Giuliani: NY 1944 Mayor of New York 94-01. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 00.
- Gary Earl Johnson: ND NM 1953 Governor of New Mexico 95-03.
- Richard John Santorum: VA PA 1958 Senator from PA 95-07. USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 06.
All they special level politic targets for democrats.
But we will see all they in his home state and we will have better reference about they.
For state level:
DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.
Some persons what hold (now or in the past) one of the offices with highest precedence at national level are over this series. Examples: B Obama, W Clinton, J Biden, N Pelosi or H Clinton. They will not be included in the polls for their home (blue) state. In this box will be the democrats over the state level (with national level) included in the series by hold not still one of the highest level offices in the country.
VT0: Howard Brush Dean III: NY VT 1948 Governor of Vermont 91-03. Lieutenant Governor of VT 87-91. Lost for President in 04.
DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.
THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.
RI1: John Frances Reed: RI 1949 Senator from Rhode Island 97- . USHRep 91-97.
WI1: Russell Dana Feingold: WI 1953 Senator from Wisconsin 93- .
CT1: Richard Blumenthal: NY CT 1946 CT Attorney General 90- .
VT1: Bernard Sanders (Ind): NY VT 1941 Senator from Vermont 07- . USHRep 91-07. Lost for Senate 72 and 74. Lost for Governor 72, 76 and 86. Lost for House 88.
DE1: Edward E Kaufman: PA DE 1939 Senator from Delaware 09- .
CA1: Barbara Levy Boxer: NY CA 1940 Senator from California 93- . USHRep 83-93. Lost for Marin County Board of Supervisors 72.
MA1: John Forbes Kerry: CO MA 1943 D Presidential Nominee 04. Senator from Massachusetts 85- . Lieutenant Governor of MA 83-85. Lost for President 04. Lost for House 72.
MI1: Carl Milton Levin: MI 1934 Senator from Michigan 79- .
HI1: Daniel Ken Inouye: HI 1924 Senator from Hawaii 63- . USHRep 59-63.
NH1: Cynthia Jeanne Shaheen: MO NH 1947 Senator from New Hampshire 09- . Governor of New Hampshire 97-03. Lost for senate 02.
MN1: Alan Stuart Franken: NY MN 1951 Senator from Minnesota 09- .
NJ1: Robert Menendez: NY NJ 1954 Senator from New Jersey 06- . USHRep 93-06. Lost for Mayor of Union City 82.
IA1: Thomas Richard Harkin: IA 1939 Senator from Iowa 85- . USHRep 75-85. Lost for President 92. Lost for House 72.
NV1: Harry Mason Reid: NV 1939 Senator from Nevada 87- . USHRep 83-87. Lieutenant Governor of NV 71-75. Lost for Senate 74.
ME1: Chellie M Pingree: MN ME 1955 USHRep 09- . Lost for Senate 02.
THE FIRST DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00.000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01.429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02.857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04.286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05.714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07.142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08.571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10.000 ---
ME: C Pingree (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 25 votes = 03.267 => Leans Republican
IA: T Harkin (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: C Pingree (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.529 => Leans Republican
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 14 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 14 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 14 votes = 05.357 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs C Smith (R) after 24 votes = 06.389 => Leans Democratic
IA: T Harkin (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 18 votes = 06.574 => Leans Democratic
ME: C Pingree (D) vs P Mills (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic
REPUBLICANS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE
- O Snowe
- C Grassley
- S Collins
- B Krolicki
All they special level politic targets for democrats.
THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.
RI2: Sheldon Whitehouse: RI 1955 Senator from Rhode Island 07- . RI Attorney General 99-03. Lost for Governor 02.
VT2: Patrick Joseph Leahy: VT 1940 Senator from Vermont 75- .
DE2: Thomas Richard Carper: WV DE 1947 Senator from Delaware 01- . Governor of Delaware 93-01. USHRep 83-93. DE State Treasurer 77-82.
MN2: Keith Maurice Ellison: MI MN 1963 USHRep 07- .
NH2: John H Lynch: MA NH 1952 Governor of New Hampshire 05- .
CT2: Susan Bysiewicz: CT 1961 CT Secretary of State 99- .
CA2: Debra Bowen: IL CA 1955 CA Secretary of State 07- .
HI2: Neil Abercrombie: NY HI 1938 USHRep 86-87 91-10. Lost for Senate 70. Lost for House 86.
WI2: Thomas Mark Barrett: WI 1953 USHRep 93-03. Mayor of Milwaukee 04- . Lost for Governor 02. Lost for WI state house 82.
MA2: Joseph Patrick Kennedy: MA 1952 USHRep 87-99.
MI2: Deborah Ann Greer Stabenow: MI 1950 Senator from Michigan 01- . USHRep 97-01. Lost for Governor 94. Lost for Lieutenant Governor of MI 94.
NV2: Frankie Sue Del Papa: NV 1949 NV Secretary of State 87-91. NV Attorney General 91-03.
IA2: Thomas James Vilsack: PA IA 1950 Secretary of Agriculture 09- . Governor of Iowa 99-07. Lost for President 08.
ME2: John Elias Baldacci: ME 1955 Governor of ME 03-11. USHRep 95-03.
NJ2: Richard James Codey: NJ 1946 Governor of New Jersey 04-06. Acting governor of New Jersey 02-02. President of NJ Senate 02-08 08-10.
THE SECOND DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.
IA: T Vilsack (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 15 votes = 03.444 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 11 votes = 03.485 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 32 votes = 03.649 => Leans Republican
NJ: R Codey (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 14 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs S Collins (R) after 21 votes = 04.365 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Smith (R) after 17 votes = 04,608 => Toss-Up
IA: T Vilsack (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 20 votes = 04.667 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 04.697 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Christie (R) after 16 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
MI: D Stabenow (D) vs J Engler (R) after 20 votes = 05.167 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 11 votes = 05.303 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
DE: T Carper (D) vs M Castle (R) after 07 votes = 05.476 => Toss-Up
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 06.319 => Leans Democratic
VT: P Leahy (D) vs J Douglas (R) after 20 votes = 07.167 => Likely Democratic
REPUBLICANS OVER THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE
- B Sandoval
- F LoBiondo
- P Mills
- C Smith
- T Branstad
- R Frelinghuysen
All they special level politic targets for democrats.
THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.
WI3: Tammy Suzanne Green Baldwin: WI 1962 USHRep 99- .
RI3: Frank T Caprio: RI 1966 RI General Treasurer 07- .
CA3: Edmund Gerald Brown: CA 1938 Governor of California 75-83. CA Secretary of State 71-75. CA Attorney General 07-11. Lost for President 76 80 and 92. Lost for Senate 82.
HI3: Eric Ken Shinseki: HI 1942 Secretary of Veteran Affairs 09- .
MN3: Amy Jean Klobuchar: MN 1960 Senator from Minnesota 07- .
MA3: Michael Everett Capuano: MA 1952 USHRep 99- . Lost for senate 10.
CT3: Edward Miner Lamont: DC CT 1954 Lost for Senate 06.
MI3: Jennifer Mulhern Granholm: CANA MI 1959 Governor of Michigan 03- . MI Attorney General 99-03.
DE3: Jack A Markell: DE 1960 Governor of Delaware 09- . DE State Treasurer 99-09.
VT3: Deborah Markowitz: NY VT 1961 VT Secretary of State 99- .
IA3: Chester John Culver: DC IA 1966 Governor 07- . IA Secretary of State 99-07.
ME3: Michael Herman Michaud: ME 1955 USHRep 03- . President ME Senate 00-02.
NH3: Paul Hodes: NY NH 1951 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
NV3: Robert Joseph Miller: IL NV 1945 Governor of Nevada 89-99. Lieutenant Governor of NV 87-89.
NJ3: William Warren Bradley: MO NJ 1943 Senator from New Jersey 79-97. Lost for President 00.
THE THIRD DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.
NV: R J Miller (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 02.708 => Likely Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 11 votes = 03.030 => Leans Republican
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 15 votes = 03.222 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.431 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 29 votes = 03.506 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 28 votes = 03.571 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Smith (R) after 11 votes = 03.636 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 03.788 => Leans Repub
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.048 => Leans Republican
DE: J Markell (D) vs M Castle (R) after 14 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 08 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 23 votes = 04.375 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Christie (R) after 19 votes = 04.649 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 07 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 14 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
VT: D Markowitz (D) vs J Douglas (R) after 12 votes = 04.861 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs J Engler (R) after 13 votes = 04.872 => Toss-Up
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs M Bono Mack (R) after 16 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs C Miller (R) after 13 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
ME: M Michaud (D) vs J McKernan (R) after 07 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs F Upton (R) after 11 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs S Garrett (R) after 11 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
IA: C Culver (D) vs D Vaudt (R) after 17 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs S Lowden (R) after 11 votes = 05.152 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller vs J Ensign (R) after 21 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs T Pawlenty (R) after 25 votes = 05.333 => Toss-Up
MA: M Capuano (D) vs C Baker (R) after 13 votes = 05.385 => Toss-Up
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs J Aiona (R) after 13 votes = 05.513 => Toss-Up
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs L Lingle (R) after 15 votes = 05.556 => Toss-Up
CT: E Lamont (D) vs J Rell (R) after 16 votes = 05.625 => Toss-Up
VT: D Markowitz (D) vs B Dubie (R) after 12 votes = 05.694 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Sununu (R) after 13 votes = 05.769 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs M Seifert (R) after 22 votes = 05.833 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs M Whitman (R) after 25 votes = 05.867 => Leans Democrat
MI: J Granholm (D) vs M Rogers (R) after 11 votes = 05.909 => Leans Democratic
RI: F Caprio (D) vs D Carcieri (R) after 03 votes = 06.111 => Leans Democratic
CT: E Lamont (D) vs R Simmons (R) after 12 votes = 06.111 => Leans Democratic
CT: E Lamont (D) vs T Foley (R) after 06 votes = 06.111 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs D Nunes (R) after 18 votes = 06.204 => Leans Democratic
MI: J Granholm (D) vs P Hoekstra (R) after 19 votes = 06.140 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs A Schwarzenegger (R) after 20 votes = 06.333 => Leans D
MA: M Capuano (D) vs M Romney (R) after 27 votes = 06.419 => Leans Democratic
MA: M Capuano (D) vs S Brown (R) after 54 votes = 06.481 => Leans Democratic
VT: D Markowitz (D) vs T M Salmon (R) after 10 votes = 06.500 => Leans Democrat
MI: J Granholm (D) vs M Cox (R) after 12 votes = 06.528 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs E Paulsen (R) after 20 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democrat
DE: J Markell (D) vs T Wagner (R) after 11 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic
NV: R J Miller (D) vs J Gibbons (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs C Benson (R) after 14 votes = 06.786 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs R Grams (R) after 26 votes = 07.179 => Likely Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs K McCarthy (R) after 18 votes = 07.222 => Likely Democr
CT: E Lamont (D) vs J Lieberman (Ind) after 17 votes = 07.353 => Likely Democrat
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs C Djou (R) after 22 votes = 07.424 => Likely Democratic
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs R Kasten (R) after 13 votes = 07.564 => Likely Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs D D Hunter (R) after 20 votes = 07.583 => Likely Democrat
MI: J Granholm (D) vs T McCotter (R) after 18 votes = 07.778 => Likely Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs N Coleman (R) after 37 votes = 07.883 => Likely Democrat
CT: E Lamont (D) vs L McMahon (R) after 12 votes = 08.056 => Likely Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs A Maldonado (R) after 06 votes = 09.167 => Safe Democrat
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs S McCallum (R)
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs S Walker (R)
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs M Neumann (R)
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs P Ryan (R)
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs J Van Hollen (R)
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs J Sensenbrenner (R)
REPUBLICANS OVER THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE
- D Heller
- J Gregg
- M Castle
- C Christie (vulnerable)
- S Merrill (vulnerable)
- K Ayotte (vulnerable)
- J Douglas (vulnerable)
- J Engler (vulnerable)
All they first level politic targets for democrats
For mid level races (including too R+ states or districts):
2010 MID LEVEL RACES WHAT NEED MORE WORK IN DEMOCRATIC SIDE
I wish bold the next races because I think need more work. They are races in favourable constituencies for fight hard and not lose.
First remember is not assured strong democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor in CO and OH, what will run in the ticket for governor.
For every group the last race what I include is the more dangerous or difficult for improve.
Safest races with some puntual risk.
- 1 For improve finding higher level candidates:
VT-SS D+13 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MA-SA D+12 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
RI-AG D+11 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
RI-ST D+11 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MA-ST D+12 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
- 2 For improve fundraising:
OH-09 D+10 Poor R challenger with good fundraising. High disadvantage fundraising.
NY-01 EVEN Poor R challenger with good fundraising. High disadvantage fundraising.
OH-13 D+5 Poor R challenger with good fundraising. High disadvantage fundraising.
NC-08 R+2 Poor R challenger with good fundraising. High disadvantage fundraising.
PA-12 R+1 Poor R candidate with decent fundraising. High disadvantage fundraising.
CA-11 R+1 Poor R challenger with good fundraising. Low disadvantage fundraising.
NY-19 R+3 Poor R challenger with good fundraising. Low disadvantage fundraising.
Fight to Safest races, if improve something.
- 1 For improve finding higher level candidates:
Previously some chance in PA-07, AR-LG, OH-SA, CA-IC and CA-AG.
CT-AG D+7 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
- 2 For improve fundraising:
NY-23 R+1 Decent R challenger with good fundraising. Rematch. Low disadvantage fund.
AR-LG R+9 Poor R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
WI-07 D+3 Poor R candidates with good fundraising. High disadvantage fundraising.
CA-IC D+8 Poor D candidates with good fundraising, Poor R cand w good f, Low disad f.
AR-01 R+8 Poor D fundraising level, Poor R candidates with poor fund, Low disadv fund.
Fight group races.
- 1 For improve leaving not chance to bad surprises:
HI-01 D+11 R incumbent.
CA-LG D+8 R incumbent, I have not data about fundraising.
CA-AG D+8 Poor D candidates with good fundraising, Decent R candidat with good fund.
LA-02 D+25 R incumbent, High D disadvantage fundraising.
Democrats are fighting very hard in all other races of this group.
If you see this diary after days, you can see the last actualization of this serie in my last diary. All the polls continue open to new votes still. The results of polls of previous diaries are updated too in the last diary specially the diaries with lower number of votes. For see my last diary click in "abgin's diary".