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 The owning of a submarine armed with nuclear weapons is one of the class of military assets which confers on the nation state possessing it what is known as “second strike capability”.

   Israel operates three submarines that are likely equipped with nuclear tipped cruise missiles. These vessels certainly meet the requirements of providing a second strike and I suspect they have more options beyond these.

   Let's have a look inside Israel's nuclear arsenal, which is now being forward deployed in preparation to strike Iran.

  When you're attacked with nuclear weapons and your opponent gets the drop on you there is a distinct possibility, especially for a smaller nuclear armed state like Israel, that the first attack has wiped out the civilian government and most if not all of the military ability to respond. Any asset that is out of harm's way and can stage a response is considered part of a second strike capability.

     During the cold war America relied on a “nuclear triad”. Our missiles were many and broadly dispersed in the interior of the country. But they might be taken out by a carefully timed barrage of nuclear weapons, picking them off in flight by damaging their electronics with the electromagnetic pulse from a nuclear detonation. Our aircraft were closer and armed with gravity bombs at first and later nuclear tipped cruise missiles. They faced a different set of hazards and it was quite unlikely all of them could be stopped, but the chance was there. The most sneaky of all are our nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. There have been several versions to receive the label SSBN, but the current crop are fourteen Ohio class boats. These three legs of the triad provide what is known as MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction.

    Israel, per this Jerusalem post article, is going to keep one of its three Dolphin class submarines forward deployed in the Persian Gulf. Long term it would appear that Israel is losing faith in the ability or the willingness of the United States to provide a long, strong arm to back them. The submarine fleet is expected to double from three dolphins to six based on this article. These boats would be run in rotation out of the Red Sea port of Eliat.





   This map should help you visualize the situation. The Israeli navy has a base in Eliat, which is near Al Aquaba. The subs would have to run down the Red Sea, through the Gulf of Aden into the Arabian Sea, and then through the Gulf of Oman into the Persian Gulf.





    These ships have a 2,800 mile range and a reported fifty day endurance. They'd have maybe been able to refuel at the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, but I recall from a report I saw last night that tensions between the U.S. And Israel have cost them their aircraft landing rights and presumably this displeasure extends to no support for their strategic

   The Dolphin class are armed with six standard 533mm torpedo tubes for anti-ship action and there are four 648mm tubes as well. Those four tubes are likely populated with modified version of the AGM-142 Have Nap cruise missile called the Popeye Turbo. My reading of the open source information indicates this system is not well  understood. Is the range 200 miles? Or is it closer to 900? That range makes a big difference in deployment and doctrine.

 
    You will need Google Earth if you want to see my detailed map of civilian and military assets in the Persian Gulf. You can see a full size version with readable text if you want a closer look and don't have Google Earth. I put a lot of time into this back in 2007 – I don't know any resource that shows all the Iranian military facilities OR all of the oil and gas production locations OR the ports of the region. This has all three to the best ability of a snow bound mildly autistic adult who likes making maps.





   So, if the range is only 200 miles the Iranian capital, some 500 miles from the shores of the Gulf, is perfectly safe. If the range is 900 miles or more the 14th TAB (Tactical Air Base) at Mashhad on the Afghan border is within reach.

   These are dangerous times and I hear much more than I report on DailyKos. I truly hope this news of the  transfer of operational nuclear tipped cruise missiles from Ukraine to Iran is a complex fake. I can see I need to do something about Iran's military assets next ...

Originally posted to Stranded Wind on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:09 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

    •  the oil price (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dancewater, CalliopeIrjaPearl
      there will be no attack on iran

      you might notice as soon as the oil price decreases out come the israel / u.s versus iran
      stories . the oil price is kept at a high level in order to facilitate excess profits which are recycled through the purchase of treasury bonds and other financial instruments . the worlds economy is dependent on this charade

      •  premeditation vs. opportunism. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stranded Wind, Trotskyrepublican

        Let's be careful to not confuse opportunism with premeditation.

        I would say that the recent drop in oil prices was a deliberate attempt to take public attention away from the anti-drilling sentiments, only because that drop in prices was the opposite of what normally occurs at the opening weekend of the heavy driving season.  "Look, gas is cheap, let's go drive somewhere for the weekend!" -->  Oil companies aren't that bad after all.

        But the current events in the Middle East are running on their own steam and their own historic inertia.   That will provide plenty of room for opportunistic profiteering by Big Oil, without any need of any oil executive picking up the phone and calling his equivalent at another company.  

  •  if Israel (8+ / 0-)

    if Israel did anything remotely that stupid, we would have a world depression within a month and world war shortly there after.  Oil would spike to 500+ a barrel.

    Israel is on a short leash and they dont like it.

    (regarding the bank mess) They want to cure the patient but not deal with the disease.

    by dark daze on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:15:06 AM PDT

  •  Nuclear armed attack submarines (5+ / 0-)

    ...are deterrents.  Whether they are first strike or second strike depends on who is giving the orders.

    You whole piece assumes that Israel will be attacked in a first strike.  By whom?  With what army?

    50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

    by TarheelDem on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:18:47 AM PDT

    •  first strike/second strike (6+ / 0-)

       Israel may decide to attack Iran preemptively. I think that is a remote possibility, but it's there. The other, wildcard alternative is that someone is in a position to push Israel's buttons hard enough to draw an immediate broad response.

        As an example, let's envision a loose Pakistani nuke in a container ship sailing into Haifa. Such an event could possibly precipitate a "kill 'em all and let Allah sort 'em out" approach.

      "Not dead ... yet. Still have ... things to do." -Liet Kynes

      by Stranded Wind on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:26:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The second case (5+ / 0-)

        How would one know that the nuke was of Pakistani origin?

        Given that, wouldn't Pakistan be a potential target and not Iran?  Iran and Pakistan do not have the best diplomatic relations.

        50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

        by TarheelDem on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:32:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Nobody's going to first-strike Israel. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        G2geek, ohmyheck, RhymesWithUrple

        There's no point to it.

        If there were a 'loose Pakistan nuke' sailing into Haifa, at this point I'd expect it was engineered by Netanyahu as a fake provocation.

        An Israeli first strike on Iran would be the end of Israel.  I hope they realize that.  There are other powers around, and one of them is Turkey.

        US support for an Israeli first strike on its neighbors would be insane, and I mean starting-World-War-I insane.  As long as Obama is in office I don't think it will happen.

        -5.63, -8.10. Learn about Duverger's Law.

        by neroden on Mon May 31, 2010 at 10:26:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yes but the key question is.... (3+ / 0-)

          .... whether No-Drama Obama can prevail on an extremist such as Netanyahu.

          That's anyone's guess.  

          Whatever phone calls were going on between Obama and Netanyahu probably had an NSA linguist and a CIA analyst or two sitting on the line, or in the same room as Obama, so they could wave their hands in the air and write quick notes to him during the conversation.  

          For example (in handwriting on a legal pad on Obama's desk, during the conversation):

          Analyst: He sounds defensive, might get defiant.

          Obama:  Got it, I'll flatter him a bit.

          Analyst:  One quick compliment and move on or it'll go to his head.

          Obama:  OK, good; thanks.

        •  I did read a scenario (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Larsstephens

          that goes something like this: (poor memory aside...)

          Israel nukes Iran nuclear sites.

          Iran retalates.

          Israel claims "It wasn't me, we don" have no nukes!"  Remember, Israels nukes aren't formally acknowledged, so they can play that card.

          Everybody blames Iran for First strike.

          U.S. comes to the aid of BFFL Israel.

          We get whats left of Iranian oil.

          This is all total and complete madness, of course.

          I like this comment from ThrowTheBumsOut:

          No, I would suggest getting as close to a primary
          Recommended by: Stranded Wind, ohmyheck
          target as possible.  Much better to be vaporized instantly than try to survive in a post-apocalyptic world.

          Yup, like Pluto said, "I'm just a tourist on this planet."  I'll add this, then---"E.T. Phone.Home."

          One man alone can be pretty dumb sometimes, but for real bona fide stupidity nothing beats teamwork." - Mark Twain

          by ohmyheck on Mon May 31, 2010 at 12:45:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  About Ukrainian cruise missiles (8+ / 0-)

    From the linked article

    Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Svyatoslav Piskun had stated that Ukraine exported 12 cruise missiles to Iran and six to China in 2001. Piskun told the paper that none of the 18 X-55 cruise missiles (also known as Kh-55 or AS-15) was exported with the nuclear warheads they were designed to carry.

    The missiles themselves were not in very good shape, according to one US official. They were diverted from Soviet stocks left behind when the Ukraine declared its independence in 1991.

    From the rest of the article, the danger is not Iran using the cruise missiles but re-engineering them to fit their own warheads (which might or might not exist).

    50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

    by TarheelDem on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:26:43 AM PDT

  •  I doubt the published reports are anywhere (9+ / 0-)

    near actual IDF capabilities. They probably have more assets than we know about, and any US weapon systems they obtain are modified and 'fine tuned'. Published ranges are nearly useless in cases like these. Israeli engineers have no doubt found ways to increase ranges.

    Unlike most other countries which buy our military hardware and use it is as, Israel designs C&C, EW, ECW and fire control systems; they are capable of modifying any off the shelf weapons system they buy.

    Saul Alinsky:
    Power is not in what the establishment has, but in what you think it has.

    by shpilk on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:31:03 AM PDT

  •  So Maybe Korea's Not the Reason for Obama's (9+ / 0-)

    seeming distracted response to the oil gusher?

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:31:55 AM PDT

    •  Oh, Korea is teh suck, too (9+ / 0-)

      The tensions on the Korean peninsula are as grim as any trouble we face. I just have a lot less information about North Korea than I do about Iran - they're very closed and with no trade in the region to speak of it's literally dark territory.

      "Not dead ... yet. Still have ... things to do." -Liet Kynes

      by Stranded Wind on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:37:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  North Korea crazier than Israel. I think. (8+ / 0-)

        Neither North Korea nor Israel is acting rationally right now. But Israel, being a democracy, is much more likely to self-correct. Though the dysfunctions in its democracy make that self-correction likely to be slow and small.

        Soon enough? Big enough? We'll see.

        "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

        by HeyMikey on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:50:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hard to get crazier than North Korea (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gmb, G2geek, Stranded Wind

          The problem is that Israel has more "allies" who don't recognize that Israel's government is crazy.

          Even China and Russia recognize that North Korea is crazy.

          -5.63, -8.10. Learn about Duverger's Law.

          by neroden on Mon May 31, 2010 at 10:29:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  methinks the Chinese leadership.... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HeyMikey, Larsstephens

            .... find DPRK to be an embarrassment, and think Kim Jong Il is a nutcase.  

            China's leaders tend to think very long-term, so they are probably putting up with this thorn in their side and looking forward to the eventuality of rational leadership in DPRK.   At that point they will be able to cite their history of "support" as a basis for having closer relations, meaning, more influence.   And in the long run, that could be the best solution to the DPRK problem.  

            •  proxy (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              G2geek, Larsstephens

              North Korea is a proxy for China - that badly behaved, belligerent neighbor who will say and do things you wish you could.

              "Not dead ... yet. Still have ... things to do." -Liet Kynes

              by Stranded Wind on Mon May 31, 2010 at 11:08:31 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  i'm not so sure i'd go as far as "proxy." (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                RedPencil, Larsstephens

                Maybe "badly behaved sibling" or "unrestrained Freudian Id," or something along those lines.  

                He nearly started a shooting war off the coast in the last couple of weeks.  That would have been highly unpleasant for China, if for no other reason than it would have destabilized economic factors that the Chinese leaders would prefer remain more stable.

                I think the Chinese wince at some of the stuff KJI says/does, but they don't try to talk him down because they're just waiting him out.  Also keep in mind that KJI is within a long football pass of dropping dead, so his time horizon is foreshortened, and the Chinese can just sit back and wait a little longer and he's outta there.  

                BTW, did I ever tell you, DPRK's Presidential palace had or still has, a Nippon Electric (or equivalent) Japanese crossbar PBX.  

                •  I think you've got it. (0+ / 0-)

                  China has moved on, has different priorities. NoKo's antics are Bad For Bidness. But the cost of replacing KJI is much higher than the cost of fixing his occasional messes for awhile longer.

                  (Too late to rec, sorry.)

                  Been watching the Honda strike in China? Fascinating. My best guess is China has not cracked down because it wants to stimulate domestic consumption, and this pushes foreign employers in that direction. But this is a genie that may not easily be put back in the bottle.

                  "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

                  by HeyMikey on Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 01:19:13 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  I dunno... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            G2geek, Larsstephens

            Does Israel have a significant ally other than the USA? And even the USA realizes Israel is currently acting irrationally.

            "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

            by HeyMikey on Mon May 31, 2010 at 11:07:55 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Guessing the USN knows every move Israel's (7+ / 0-)

    submarines make. And everybody else's. They're pretty good in this regard.

  •  Ha ha, love these articles (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chuckvw, Sandino

    all that background tecno talk to support Ledeen/Cheney/Beck/Corsi/Matalin/liar et al's fearmongering, with the little meaty nuggets like

    With converted civilian planes, Iran could possibly launch these missiles from the middle of the Atlantic to hit the United States.

    and

    A more attractive alternative might consist of arming small ships with single cruise missiles. The modifications required to launch such a small missile would easily escape detection.

    and

    (with ref. to theoritical Iranian nuke):

    some reduction in the Kh-55's 2,500-3,000 km range would be anticipated, but not so much as to preclude reaching Israel at a distance of less than 1,500 km.

    Yep, it might happen.

    Possibly.

    Does this rec make my head look fat?

    by KenBee on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:48:47 AM PDT

    •  This is their set up for a false flag op (0+ / 0-)

      which Israeli city do you think they consider expendable?

      •  nuking your own people (5+ / 0-)

        I don't think anyone is crazy enough to nuke their own people. Hopeless incompetence letting an attack through like Bush did in 2001? Sure. Hopeless incompetence in disaster response like we saw with Katrina in 2005? Sure.

         But to actively plot to irradiate one of your own cities, slaughter a few tens of thousands of your countrymen, and touch off a regional nuclear exchange? This is a discussion more appropriate for Redstate or some other den of delusional conspiracists.

        "Not dead ... yet. Still have ... things to do." -Liet Kynes

        by Stranded Wind on Mon May 31, 2010 at 11:06:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  This makes sese (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gmb, G2geek, Stranded Wind, charliehall2

    when you say:

    Israel, per this Jerusalem post article, is going to keep one of its three Dolphin class submarines forward deployed in the Persian Gulf. Long term it would appear that Israel is losing faith in the ability or the willingness of the United States to provide a long, strong arm to back them.

    That could explain the constabt reassurances of the Israeli Right by the Obama admin. Sort of a "back away from the ledge kind of thing". Also more fundibg for "iron Dome"

    Now you have me thinking.

    "No Groin.... No Krav Maga" - The Simpsons

    by volleyboy1 on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:50:13 AM PDT

  •  "...is perfectly safe." (5+ / 0-)

    If Iran nukes anybody , I would not give the Iranian capital any chance . I would bet my net worth on the Iranian capital being a smoking hole in the ground .

    "Another beautiful theory slain by an ugly fact"

    by indycam on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:51:59 AM PDT

  •  Thanks, very interesting. n/t (4+ / 0-)

    Moderation in most things. Except Reactors. IFR forever!

    by billmosby on Mon May 31, 2010 at 09:54:02 AM PDT

  •  about what Iran has: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    neroden, Larsstephens

    Batteries installed along the high ground on their side of the Strait of Hormuz.

    Sufficient to sink a few ships in the Strait.

    Thereby shutting down shipping due to a) the physical hazard of navigating around the wreckage in a tiny area, and b) the insurance premiums for risk coverage in an active war zone.  

    This in turn would send oil prices through the roof, because a significant percentage of the world's oil supply goes through the Strait.  

    Those Iranian batteries could in theory be taken out with a surprise nuclear first-strike, but would be difficult to take out with conventional weapons.  I don't believe the Israeli leadership are crazy enough to do something like that.  They might however play brinksmanship games around it.  

    •  probably not (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gmb, G2geek, corvo, neroden, Larsstephens

      I've looked very closely at this. It's a diary for another day, but check the Google Earth map - there are lots and lots of small patrol boats armed with cruise missiles. There are lots of places to  hide stuff along that coast.

        The Sunburns can't tag a carrier all the way over near Bahrain, but there seems to me to be a good chance that any ship over the midpoint between the two coasts would be in danger from a shore based shot.

       Iran is a regional power, as is Israel. Neither of them are a force to be trifled with given our over-extended military.

      "Not dead ... yet. Still have ... things to do." -Liet Kynes

      by Stranded Wind on Mon May 31, 2010 at 10:01:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Would other nations in the region (6+ / 0-)

    be allowed to station such "deterrents" in the Mediterranean?  Or the Chesapeake Bay? That's certainly the question that most of the world will be asking.

    This is clearly meant to provoke and intimidate. I'd like to believe that the flotilla massacre was just another example of the IDF command's heavy-handedness and incompetence, but these days who knows?

    www.bushwatch.net - Kicking against the pricks since '98!

    by chuckvw on Mon May 31, 2010 at 10:08:43 AM PDT

  •  Is Netanyahu *trying* to destroy Israel? (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gmb, G2geek, Sandino, forgore, Stranded Wind

    Seriously, it's become absolutely critical for all Jews everywhere to disclaim any association with the madmen running the government of modern Israel.

    -5.63, -8.10. Learn about Duverger's Law.

    by neroden on Mon May 31, 2010 at 10:14:36 AM PDT

  •  the Nutcase Factor: (7+ / 0-)

    Mutual deterrence worked between the US & USSR because both were rational countries headed by rational people who a) had a fear of death and of megadeaths, and b) were primarily concerned with the material wellbeing of their peoples.

    The Middle East is a different situation because a) national leaders tend to subscribe to religious beliefs that are sufficiently extreme as to include various forms of martyrdom ideologies, and b) the leaders are also more concerned with the spiritual salvation of their peoples, than with the material wellbeing of their peoples.  

    Also, both the USA and USSR are/were ethnically diverse nations, in which national identity was based on memes rather than genes.

    Contrast to the Middle East where national identity is basically identical with genes: race, ethnicity, religion as heritable status.  

    Bottom line is, no one in the Middle East should have nuclear weapons, period.  As for nuclear power, give them the thorium-fluoride fuel cycle, which is proven to work (USA, 1960s) and which is not conducive to producing nuclear weapons.   And the way to provide for Israel's entirely legitimate concerns about being a tiny country surrounded by enemies, is with a vigorous NATO-like arrangement with the US.   To put it bluntly, so we can keep cooler heads in the loop than are likely to prevail locally.  

    •  population, resources (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gmb, kafkananda, Larsstephens

        The long term problem is the fertility of the Gaza residents. We're at the edges of growth, they're in a resource constrained area, and having 3.7 children per family is a path to disaster.

       Outside the I/P fetish here, we're going to see more and more trouble with populations, and food, and water as Mother Nature reacts to two hundred years of us giving her the hot foot.

      "Not dead ... yet. Still have ... things to do." -Liet Kynes

      by Stranded Wind on Mon May 31, 2010 at 10:22:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  where'd you get 3.7? I thought it was 5.3. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stranded Wind, Larsstephens

        I thought Israel was at 2.8, and Palestine in general was at 5.3, c/o either UN or CIA figures.

        However a quick lookup here:

        http://en.wikipedia.org/...

        ... shows that Palestine is at 5.06, and Israel is at 2.75.  (UN figures)  (Heh, we were both wrong:-)  

        Iran, interestingly, is at 2.04.  So they're doing something right.  

        The world average is 2.55, which sounds like it's not cause for alarm, but actually is a six-alarm fire.  

        As a generalization, the problem faced by Israel is that the Palestinians are multiplying like mice, and that can only lead to overshoot and all the associated problems spilling into Israel.

        However, trying to starve 'em is not a solution and will not produce a stable outcome: in fact it will only tend to drive up the birth rate by resort to R-selection in the face of decreased likelihood of survival by offspring.  

        Anyone who thinks that SW and I are being reductionistic about this is welcome to explain how it is that humans are not subject to the same laws of ecology as every other species of living organism on this planet.  

        We are animals.  Except for those of us who are vegetables.  

    •  C) We Do Have an Attempt at Total Extermination (5+ / 0-)

      of one of those peoples within recent memory. Also not an ideal background for rational acting.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Mon May 31, 2010 at 10:24:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Netanyahu is not religious (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      and he is a very clever politician whose main concern is survival -- for himself, and for his nation.

  •  Dude, I wanna stick my head in the sand... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gmb, Stranded Wind, Larsstephens

    SW, your diaries pretty much always bring me down.

    I'm always glad I read them, and they always bring me down or scare the shit out of me.

    I gave up my car and I strive for zero waste, I try to teach my kids to care about our world - but in the face of something like this...words fail me. And I can think of no symbolic action that would help me feel less helpless.

    And so I'm left to pray to a God I'm not sure I believe in.

    http://www.storyofstuff.com/

    by bluesheep on Mon May 31, 2010 at 10:44:56 AM PDT

    •  keep your eye on the ball (5+ / 0-)

      I am sorry to be such a bummer, but objective reality is my day job :-(

      The best thing you can do is watch closely enough that you can correct your friends when they have misconceptions, without becoming bogged down and depressed. I love the people who run The Automatic Earth, but I'd get suicidal if I read that every day like I did back in 2007/2008. I maintain situational awareness and relationships so if I need a deep dive for some reason I can get it, but I do not linger. I hope my work on military systems and affairs achieves a similar status here - go to guy, getting people doing diaries because their is a market for them, etc.

      "Not dead ... yet. Still have ... things to do." -Liet Kynes

      by Stranded Wind on Mon May 31, 2010 at 11:00:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  the point is preparedness. (3+ / 0-)

      In this case, not preparedness for atomic bombs to start falling on US cities, because the likelihood of that is vanishingly small.  

      Rather, in this case, to get us to start emailing Obama & our Senators, to ask them to please take a harder line with Netanyahu and do whatever's needed to get him to back off on Iran.  

      That's something concrete we can do that actually may have an effect.  

  •  asdf (6+ / 0-)
    Once again, proof that the Israeli military establishment is the leakiest in the world and utterly incapable of keeping sensitive military secrets under wraps - in spite of a very strict military censorship regime that is imposed on their domestic press, to which the JP is emphatically subject. Alternatively, one might be tempted into thinking that the article is part of the never-ending bullshit stream that has been emanating from Israel for the past 16 years regarding its plans to imminently attack Iran.

    On a broader note, the Israeli submarine fleet is usually stationed on Mediterranean coast, and has to transit the Suez Canal to either port in Eilat or head off to the Persian Gulf. Unsurprisingly, it's not possible for a sub to transit Suez submerged, or to do so on the surface without Egyptian permission. Eilat is not a good location for a submarine pen - just look at how narrow the Gulf of Aqaba is at its egress into the Red Sea.

    Given a 50-day operational window, and allowing at least 5-7 days each way, the Israelis cannot maintain anything but an incredibly intermittent submarine presence in the vicinity of Iran. You should also bear in mind that the shortest maritime distance from Eilat to the Persian Gulf is in the region of 1600 miles - so a round trip of some 3200 miles.

    Other things to bear in mind: the Persian Gulf is shallow and actually very difficult for submarines to operate in - there have been 3 US sub collisions with surface ships in the Straits of Hormuz/Persian Gulf region over the past 5 or so years - and US submariners are vastly more experienced and better trained than their Israeli counterparts. Whilst the US routinely violates rules of innocent passage in transiting Iranian territorial waters in the SoH, the downsides for the Israelis doing so would be potentially catastrophic if they were caught.

    Israeli use of Bahrain would require the permission of the Bahraini authorities, which given the local diplomatic and political complications that such would entail, is highly unlikely.

  •  I understand that you have secret sources of (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Larsstephens

    some kind but I have extremely hard time believing that Israel is going to attack Iran with nukes. At most they might bomb Iranian nuclear production facilities (with conventional bombs).

  •  This raised my eyebrows (0+ / 0-)

    I recall from a report I saw last night that tensions between the U.S. And Israel have cost them their aircraft landing rights and presumably this displeasure extends to no support for their strategic

    No more use of the US air base in Bahrain?

    When did this happen?

    This sounds like the US spanked Israel for its bad behavior.

    They need a good spanking.

    I guess we don't hear about it because of all the hair-on-fire repsonses from various sources.

    Still, I find this interesting.

    One man alone can be pretty dumb sometimes, but for real bona fide stupidity nothing beats teamwork." - Mark Twain

    by ohmyheck on Mon May 31, 2010 at 01:07:02 PM PDT

  •  Would making it clear to Israel (0+ / 0-)

    that they would have to bear any repercussions from such a stupid move without help from us make them MORE or LESS likely to be stupid, I wonder?

    Freedom of speech does not mean the freedom to lie without consequence; unless, apparently if you're a right wing talk-radio host.

    by Whimsical on Mon May 31, 2010 at 01:49:35 PM PDT

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