Let me start off with a few disclaimers, so that we can get on smoothly with the main topic of the diary.
First, I'm an (unpaid) intern with the Tyler Gernant for Congress campaign, so my views are obviously a bit biased, even though I try to write as objectively as possible in the analysis parts. I'm not writing this diary as a political intern, but as a Kossack- the campaign didn't authorise or pre-read the diary, and the views and opinions expressed here are solely my own.
Second, English isn't my native language- I'm German, so please bear with me if I overlooked some grammar mistakes or something like that.
Okay, great- as you may or may not know, there'll be a primary in Montana on June 8, just as in several other states. Most notably, the runoff of the Arkansas Democratic Senate Primary and the California Primaries will be held, with several notable races in there, including the challenge of netroots hero Marcy Winograd to Blue Dog Jane Harman in CA-36.
Therefore, the Montana Primary hasn't got much publicity around here so far. I'm intending to change that, so follow me below the fold for some info on this race.
The district
The Montana At-large Congressional District is ranking first among all 435 congressional district in terms of population and second in terms of area (behind Alaska-AL).
The PVI of the district is R+7, and the seat has been held by a Republican since the 1996 election. The current incumbent is Dennis Rehberg, in office since 2000.
The PVI is a little bit misleading though, because Montana was in recent election cycles more favorable to statewide Democrats than to presidential candidates. The state has a Democratic governor (Brian Schweitzer), two Democratic senators (Max Baucus and Jon Tester), and the state legislature is pretty much split 50-50-- almost literally. The State House is split 50-50, the State Senate 26-24 for the Democrats.
The Democratic bases in the district are Missoula, a town of 60,000 with a huge college student population, Butte, a working class town that used to house some of the largest copper mines in the world. Even though the heyday of Butte is long over, it still delivers a nice number of votes for the Democrats. Also, there are several Native American nations in the north of the state, who also vote strongly Democratic.
The Republicans tend to dominate the rural areas of the state. Tiny Garfield County (northeast of Bilings) is one of the most Republican counties nationwide and gave almost 90% of its votes to John McCain (and more than 90% to Bush).
The swing areas in the state are usually Lewis and Clark County, where the capital Helena (25,000 inhabitants) is, and Yellowstone County, the biggest county in the state, where the largest city Billings is in.
Lewis and Clark County usually leans a bit to the Democratic side, Yellowstone County a bit towards the GOP (Obama lost it by 7 while losing the state by 2)- but Congressman Rehberg hails from Billings, so the county will most likely vote for him even if he was to go down.
The incumbent
I have already diaried about this race on DailyKos a few months ago and characterized Rehberg, so I think it's okay when I simply repost that part here:
Not only is Rehberg as folksy as he looks on the picture above, he also has a great sense of humor, as evidenced by this great joke he played on his fellow congressman Mike Simpson of Idaho:
On a congressional trip to the Middle East last month, Rehberg left an "Idaho Travel Package" on the airplane seat of Rep. Mike Simpson, R-Idaho.
The contents included a stuffed sheep with gloves attached to it, a Village People CD, books on cross-dressing and sign language, and a T-shirt that reads, "My senator may not be gay, but my governor is Butch."
The shirt referred to Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho, who was caught in a men's airport bathroom sex sting, and Idaho Gov. C.L. "Butch" Otter.
Not charming enough for you? Well, he is not just funny. He is also compassionate and empathetic:
The problem with AIDS is you get it, you die, so why are we spending [money on] any people that get it?
And he is not just loving gay people, his friendly, well-meaning attitude also extends to Native Americans:
On the heels of the controversy over the Butte comment, the Sidney Herald publisher revealed in an editorial that several years ago Rehberg had commented that Indians just work until they get their first pay check.
But wait- maybe we can find a fault in his job performance? Even if he is such a nice person, maybe he doesn't take his job as a congressman seriously? No, says his Chief of Staff, he's doing a great job:
"Time and again," Rehberg has backed legislation that matters to Montanans, Iverson says. He’s sponsored bills to recognize Billings’ 125th anniversary, push for a water project in Fort Peck, and congratulate Carroll College’s football team for its 2007 league win.
Furthermore, as a 5-term incumbent, he is giving Montanans a voice on important committees, just as they deserve it, representing the biggest congressional seat in terms of population and the second-biggest in terms of area covered. He is the 17th ranking member of the minority in the House Committee on Appropriations! The 4th ranking member of the minority in the Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development and even the 2nd ranking member of the minority in the Subcommittee on Labor (out of 5!). If he continues to advance that fast, he'll make it to being Ranking Member of a Subcommitee in less than 15 years!
And last, but not least, he is a crucial member of the moderate wing of the Republican party.
That means, I'm sure there is someone to the right of him. Calling Michelle Bachmann...
But isn't he safe, an invulnerable incumbent?
No.
A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll on Montana from August puts his favorables at a measly 46/45 split. That's not only not invulnerable, that's a sign of a highly endangered incumbent.
That's what I wrote in 2009, and the situation for Rehberg hasn't improved since then. Rehberg had another scandal when he was on a boating tour with his wife, two aides and the Senate Minority Whip- they all got drunk, and the State Senatorcrashed the boat:
Also, a major Rehberg donor is somehow affiliated with a Bozeman prostitute ring, but that story was buried by local news, even though it got play on Nightlife, as Montana Cowgirl diaried over at the Montana blog Left in the West.
Just summarizing: Rehberg is someone who we really should get rid of. His controversial remarks don't only deserve condemnation, but also some engagement by the netroots to get rid of him. Also, his approval ratings aren't great, so we really CAN get to him.
The only problem is that the Montana Democratic Party ran only sacrifical lambs against him since his first real race against Nancy Keenan in 2000, which he only barely won- some say because of a Bush-2000 primary-style whispering campaign that Keenan was allegedly lesbian.
The last candidate, John Driscoll, didn't fundraise, campaign, and he even went so far that he refused to say whether he would vote for himself. Therefore he got slaughtered by a 68-32 margin even when Schweitzer got almost 70% of the vote and Baucus close to 80% in the same election.
But it doesn't need to be that way.
This time we have the first contested Democratic primary since... well, it feels like it's since the begin of time.
The Democratic Primary candidates
Major candidates:
1) Tyler Gernant
He's a 27-year old tax attorney for small businesses from Missoula, Montana. His political experience includes interning in the offices of Max Baucus and Brian Baird, and with the Presidential campaign of John Edwards in 2004.
He's a solid progressive, supporting for example EFCA, the Public Option, an expansion of the Amtrak network and bringing Montana to the forefront of renewable energies. This is why he has been on a 'Green Energy listening tour' to speak with businesses and farmers who already use renewable energy. He's also running on a simplification of the tax code, something that he as a tax attorney understands and that would be vital especially for small businesses.
It's also important to emphasize that Tyler has multi-generational roots in Montana: He's a fourth-generation Montanan. Westerners are, don't ask me why, really looking at that stuff. When in another state you would be regarded as a carpetbagger when you moved there 10 years ago, but someone who lives there for 30 years would be absolutely fine, Montanans are looking at how many GENERATIONS someone already lives in Montana.
Here it also helps that Tyler is the first candidate ever to get the endorsement of members of the family of the late revered Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield, whose nephew (who goes by the same name) serves as campaign treasurer with the Tyler Gernant for Congress campaign.
Tyler will most likely depend on a combination of high Missoula turnout and winning the other Montana cities in the primary, like Bozeman, Kalispell or Billings.
Tyler's advantage in the General Election is that he doesn't have decades of political barrage to carry around- he's a clean sheet, and Rehberg will find it difficult to drag him in the mud. In a usual election cycle, his relative inexperience might have been a disadvantage, but in 2010 it allows him to run an outsider campaign in both the Primary and General election, when outsiders are very much 'in' on both sides of the aisle right now.
Tyler's website
Facebook
Twitter
And, of course, most importantly,
ActBlue (visit his page, it's worth a look even if you don't donate)
2) Dennis McDonald
Dennis McDonald is the former Chairman of the Montana Democratic Party and a rancher in rural Montana.
He was born in Kansas and worked in California as a defense attorney for the first part of his life- when one of his clients was the Mafia mob boss Jimmy 'the Weasel' Fratianno- something the MT GOP tries to spin as his Bill Ayers connection. I think that this is a bit unfortunate- after all, anyone gets to have an attorney to defend him. Still, the story got a lot of play and overshadowed his campaign announcement, as he was immediately hit with this ad, the first real interaction between Dems and Repubs in this cycle:
This was back when Dennis was the only Democratic candidate, and the GOP got prepared to run against him, before the primary got contested.
Dennis is also a veteran of the Civil Right movement. He participated in several civil rights movement marches, including with Rev. Abernathy in the Montgomery-D.C. march, and volunteered for Bobby Kennedy's presidential campaign.
In the 1970's, he moved to Montana and became a rancher- His political activity was virtually nil until 2005, when he emerged from nowhere to become Chairman. He donated to a few statewide political campaigns prior to 2004- to a Dem State House campaign in 1992 and to two wingnut GOP candidates, who went on to vote against things like dental care education for children in schools.
His positions on policy have been less than clear. While it got a lot of play in both the MT blogosphere and print media that he came out in favor of a single payer system, I'm not sure that he actually understands what single payer means, because in the interview in which he spoke out in favor of single payer, he said that he favored giving people the option to buy into medicare:
Expanding Medicare, the federal government's insurance for the elderly, to cover everyone is the way to go, McDonald said. It could be extended to anyone who wants to buy into the system, he said, creating a more cost-efficient system in the long run.
Anyone who wants to keep their current insurance could do so, he said.
That's a medicare buy-in, which is a fine thing, but not single-payer.
Also, McDonald has scrubbed his health care issues page from references to single payer.So I guess by now he knows that he doesn't really support it.
Also, he came out both in favor of a controversial 3-2 decision by the (all-Democratic) Montana land board to allow coal mining in Otter Creek (north-east of Billings). While such a move would bring money to Montana, it is also a big danger for clean water and wildlife in Eastern Montana and is vehemently opposed by the MT League of Conversation Voters. Gernant has come out against coal mining in Otter Creek.
In my opinion McDonald isn't ready for prime time, as evidenced by his stupid publicity stunt to try and 'mop out' Washington. He showed up with a so-called 'mop brigade' of 3 (!) people with mops in front of Rehberg's office. The MT College GOP reacted quickly and organized a counter-demonstration of about 20 people- and they confronted Dennis with a camera and asked him questions about the Mafia thing from above. He was absolutely helpless. I really think that a politician should perform better than this under pressure, it's like watching a train wreck. How would he do in a debate? (sorry for embedding a video by the MT College Repubs, but it's the original source).
Still, McDonald is a solid Democrat and a strong union supporter (he got the AFL-CIO's endorsement), which is why he'll do very well in the Butte area, I'd guess. Also, he's expected to win the rural areas.
I think that basically the decision between these two comes down to if you want to try and win- then you should opt for Tyler, because Dennis has too much baggage to keep his favorables up- or if you're content with slinging mud back and forth and bloodying Rehberg so much that he's too damaged to run against Jon Tester or for Governor in 2012- then Dennis is your guy.
On the fundraising fron they're about equal- McDonald has raised about $170,000, Gernant about $125,000, but McDonald got one quarter earlier in the race, has loaned himself about $25,000 to Tyler's $1,800- so that in the time where both candidates were inthe race, Tyler got actually more donations than McDOnald and outraised him 2:1 in the last reporting period.
I can't help but feel that a good description for McDonald is that he's like Terry McAuliffe, but without the money. A good, solid, loyal Democrat, but with a lot of political baggage and being perceived as a carpetbagger by a lot of voters in the state they're running in.
There are also two minor candidates in the race, but I guess for sake of completeness I still have to write about them briefly.
But first, McDonald's links:
Dennis' website
Facebook
Twitter
ActBlue
3) Minor candidates
Melinda Gopher
Melinda is a Native American activist and HuffPo-blogger.
She's generally very progressive on all issues (except for, I guess, gun control- I didn't find information on that on her website, but all Montana candidates in probably every corner of the state and from all parties support the 2nd amendment).
She hasn't filed a single FEC record, which means that she either raised less than $5,000 or violated FEC regulation- neither is a sign that her campaign is viable. Still, she might grab a few votes, especially in the heavily Native counties up North, but she'll almost certainly be limited to single digits.
Website
Facebook
Sam Rankin
I don't know anything about him at all, except for that he's a Conservadem, 100% self-funded to the tune $6,000 and has pledged not to go negative on Rehberg. Not a factor, and I honestly don't know why any real Democrat would vote for him.
Website
Also, let me link you to two great Montana blogs, where you can also read coverage on Tuesday's election:
Left in the West
4&20 blackbirds
Then, here's a good and pretty funny summary of the candidates' pros and cons at the Missoula Independent, a free weekly newspaper:
http://missoulanews.bigskypress.com/...
FWIW, Left in the West had an unscientific online poll of registered LitW members on their site, and with all the caveats that apply- self-selection, and so on, Gernant leads with 44% of the vote to 17% for Gopher and 15% for McDonald. As far as I know, no campaign tried to freep the poll, and you can vote only once, but it's the best measure of MT blogosphere support that I can think of.
Now, allow me to close with a few words speaking as a Tyler intern- while we would obviously be glad if you used the ActBlue link above, we'd also be happy to get some Kossack help with GOTV phonebanking- if you'd like to lend a hand, my email is in my profile, and the mail of Tyler's Field State Director is chris dot mora04 at gmail dot com. We'll be happy to get you a list with numbers to call and a memo with talking points.
Thanks for reading, see you in the comments!
Update: I'm pleased to announce that Missoula Mayor John Engen endorsedTyler Gernant for Congress today.
"I am pleased to endorse Tyler Gernant for U.S. House," Engen stated.
"Tyler, a fellow Missoulian, is an extremely gifted leader. I admire his quick wit, his intelligence and his commitment to the people of Montana," Engen added. "[A]nd his well-thought-out policies on job creation, new energy and deficit reduction make him the stand-out choice in a talented field of candidates.
This is a good and valuable endorsement. Tyler needs a good Missoula turnout to carry the day, and Mayor Engen is popular. The endorsement comes early enough for Tyler to educate Missoula voters on this, and Missoula provides more than 10% of the Democratic primary votes, usually. This time, with a Missoula candidate running, it could be even more.
Also, it gives a continued sense of momentum to Tyler's campaign. There haven't been many endorsements at all in the campaign, so a late-breaking endorsement by a relatively well-known politician is big news.