Today is the biggest primary voting day of the year. From coast-to-coast, American voters in an angry anti-incumbent mood will trickle into polling booths, cast their votes in pathetically low numbers, and provide cable TeeVee's chattering punditocracy with more tea leaves to ruminate over.
Voters are making gubernatorial choices in six states today, from Maine to California. Governor's races aren't always as "sexy" as the Senate contests or the battle for the House, but the nation's governors elected this year will play a critical role in determining which party emerges stronger over the next decade.
A quick look at themes emerging from today's gubernatorial voting:
1) GOP Primary Madness - Most of the action is on the Republican side of the docket. In all six states voting today, Republicans have been duking it out for months. Democrats, on the other hand, were successful in essentially clearing the field everywhere but South Carolina and Maine. The DGA thinks this GOP-infighting has "paved the way" for Democratic victories in the fall. They make the argument competitive primaries have caused deep divisions within the Republican Party that will be impossible to overcome. I seem to recall Republicans predicting much the same thing as they gleefully watched Hillary and Barack's primary contest drag on and on and on in 2008. Primary contests can strengthen the eventual nominee.
2) Changing of the Guard - Only two incumbents are on the ballot today. One, the inept and ethically-challenged Jim Gibbons is expected to be defeated in Nevada's Republican primary. Polls show the other, Iowa Democrat Chet Culver, vulnerable in November, meaning it's highly likely that every state voting in governor's races today could have a new chief executive next January.
3) Golden Oldies - Two former governors are attempting comebacks (and are early favorites to win back their old offices). Iowa's longest serving governor in history, Republican Terry Branstad hopes to emerge from a competitive GOP primary to take on Culver while California Democrats are banking on 1970's retread Jerry Brown to win Arnold Schwarzenegger's office.
4) Issue Avoidance - Governors and state legislatures are grappling with unprecedented budget crises. Difficult decisions about taxes and spending cuts are paralyzing state governments from Sacramento to Augusta. But gubernatorial candidates are 0n the campaign trail fighting over immigration (virtually everywhere), gay marriage (Iowa & Maine), sex scandals (South Carolina) and health care lawsuits (again, virtually every GOP primary) while offering few details as to how they would actually balance budgets in the tight economy.
5) 2012 GOP Sweepstakes - Two critical early presidential states - Iowa and South Carolina - are selecting GOP nominees and the field of presidential wannabes have been placing their bets, hoping to back the eventual winner. Having a critical backer in the Governor's Mansion in either (or both) state could provide Palin, Huckabee or Romney a leg up on the competitors. Tim Pawlenty, the only sitting governor in the bunch, has made it a policy to not endorse in competitive primaries. The most interesting choice thus far has been Palin's support of moderate Terry Branstad in Iowa. Backing the front-runner isn't exactly the "rogue" choice and might, therefore, indicate Palin may be seriously thinking about a 2012 bid.
6) Potential Run-offs - The likelihood of a run-off in South Carolina's GOP primary is pretty high, although some Nikki Haley supporters are hoping she can reach 50%, avoiding a run-off. In South Dakota, there is a possibility that none of the Republicans will reach the 35% threshold to win the GOP nomination outright. This could be a place where Tea Party activists make a difference.
Cross-posted at StateHouseRock