The internet is full of rumors that the Big 12 is on the verge of implosion with 6 teams leaving for the Pac 10 and two others leaving for the Big 10. If those rumors are true, 8 of the Big 12's 12 teams would be gone, and the remaining teams of Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and either Baylor or Colorado (depending on who you believe) will be the unlucky forgotten. Or will they?
According to Chip Brown of Orangebloods.com (the Texas Rivals site which has broken most of the expansion news over the past week), teams departing the Big 12 must pay a $10 million buyout. The buyout can only be avoided if 9 Big 12 teams vote to dissolve the conference. If true, that would be the first good news the Big 12 survivors have received. Eight departing teams would represent a total buyout of $80 million payable to the conference, which would be the remaining 4 teams- for the moment.
The BCS, unfortunately, doesn't permit a conference to participate in the BCS unless it has a minimum of 8 teams. That sounds like bad news for the remaining 4 Big 12 teams, but in reality, it highlights yet another fantastic point for them: if the remaining teams can get at least 4 new teams to join the Big 12 effective the year the other 8 teams depart, the Big 12 will continue to receive an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game. The BCS rules are explicit on this point. Through 2014, the champion of each of the current six BCS conferences will receive an automatic invitation to a BCS bowl game. While it's true that the BCS is in the middle of a review period, few realize that the review period isn't reviewing the current BCS conferences. It is only designed to review possible new additions to the BCS elite. A conference like the MWC, for example, could become a 7th BCS conference following the review period, but no matter how poorly one of the current six BCS conferences performs, they are each guaranteed to retain BCS status. As an aside, this also represents great news for either the MWC or WAC (depending on if the top MWC teams all leave for the new Big 12). Their bar for admission to the BCS as a seventh conference drops precipitously if they are only being compared to the new Big 12 (the BCS review criteria requires a 7th conference to outperform at least one current BCS conference in three different categories to gain admission as an automatic qualifier). So, while adding at least 4 new teams to the new Big 12 (resulting in a total of at least 8 teams) likely means the $80 million paid by the departing members has to be split more ways, it also allows the Big 12 to keep BCS status which is worth far more.
One wonders if the BCS, recognizing the problem above, might then attempt to amend its rules to avoid such a problem with the Big 12. The BCS has not, to my knowledge, released details of how the BCS rules can be amended by the current six conferences. Let's assume for the sake of argument that amendments require a majority vote (that represents the minimum vote which would be required- more likely some sort of supermajority is required). The Big East will have every incentive to maintain the current power structure as is. The Big Ten is threatening to poach Big East teams, so the Big East is very likely to find itself in a predicament identical to the Big 12's. The ACC could also be wary of any amendment which would eliminate the Big 12 and/or the Big East from the BCS. The ACC in such a scenario would be one of only four "BCS" conferences (or whatever new designation they apply), and the new superconferences of the Pac 16, Big 16, and SEC (who presumably would also go to at least 14 teams) would then have the power to dictate the ACC's every move. The ACC may find it vastly preferable to join forces with the Big 12 and Big East. It isn't difficult to imagine three current BCS conferences opposing any changes to the current BCS structure in the short term. That would represent yet another windfall for the remaining Big 12 teams (along with their new league counterparts, such as possibly BYU, Utah, TCU, and Houston).
The windfall doesn't necessarily end there. The Big 12 intellectual property would retain some value. All of that would flow to the new Big 12 teams. So would all rights to conference records, titles, television rebroadcasts, and more. Not too shabby.
Next, while admittedly a bit of a longshot, the new Big 12 teams may even retain the Big 12's television contracts. Neither the ESPN/ABC nor the Fox Sports Net contracts are public, and I haven't seen any reports on whether either is terminable as a result of certain teams or a certain number of teams departing. If drafted well, the television contracts would terminate upon the departure of 8 teams (particularly given that the 8 departing teams are the ones who would have driven the dollar amount of the contract initially). If drafted poorly, the contracts would continue until due to expire. The ESPN/ABC contract expires in 2016 (and is worth $480 million), and the Fox Sports contract expires in 2012 (worth $78 million). That's a huge pile of money for as few as 8 Big 12 teams to split (as mentioned above, the Big 12 must have at least 8 teams to survive per the BCS, but it can have as many teams as it wants to invite as well).
Finally, the Big 12 would presumably retain its bowl tie ins until those contracts expire (again assuming those contracts do not automatically terminate if certain teams or a certain number of teams leave the conference). The Big 12's bowl contracts are with the BCS, Cotton Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Insight Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Texas Bowl, New Era Pinstripe Bowl, and Eagle Bank Bowl. The aggregate payout from those bowl games to Big 12 teams is almost $13,000,000 per year.
Most reports I have read suggest that the remaining Big 12 teams will be forced to join the MWC, WAC, Conference USA, or some other new conference. Frankly, that makes no sense from a financial perspective. If the Big 12 can't be dissolved without the vote of 9 teams, the remaining Big 12 teams are potentially sitting on a goldmine. It is a short-term goldmine which will eventually run its course (the BCS agreement will eventually expire, as will the tv contract, and the conference's IP will devalue over time), but the remaining teams would be fools to ignore it. Undoubtedly, their attorneys are looking into these issues right now.
The carrots the four remaining Big 12 teams can offer to new Big 12 invitees seem certain to outweigh the carrots the MWC, WAC or C-USA could offer the remaining Big 12 teams to join their respective conferences. The Big 12 in its current form may be dead, but long live the Big 12.
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