Almost forgotten due to the worsening Oilpocalypse beast destroying Louisiana's marshes, waters and shoreline is the fact that our legislature is currently in session, wrestling with a state budget that Bobby Jindal’s tax cut to Louisiana's wealthiest has thrown into shambles. But not to worry... before Jindal went to Fourchon and Grand Isle and Venice to throw his oil coated hands in the air, make a deal with BP to build sand berms that may or may not work, and then rail at BP for not doing enough for Louisianians affected by the oilcano, he had a plan to work it all out.
Much of it hinges on "fixing" higher education, which, as in many, many other states, has taken the biggest hits over the last two years in order to balance the state budget. More below the fold...
However, unlike other states in the midst of depression recession, Louisiana’s current budget mess, BO [Before Oilpocalypse], was greatly exacerbated by the aforementioned tax repeal, which is responsible for much of the current budget deficit, or at least that part of it absorbed by higher education. If public higher education only had more autonomy to raise tuition without legislative approval (we are the only state that requires approval by 2/3 of the legislature to raise tuition by more than a nominal amount, so it is indeed artificially low here), then it wouldn’t be as dependent on state appropriations, the budget could be reigned in without further cuts to higher ed, and life as we know it would be preserved. (BTW, colleges will surely close if LA GRAD Act doesn't pass. So it has to pass. It is our only hope, or at least so we are being led to believe.) Yay, St. Bobby, Savior of Higher Ed and Balanced State Budgets! In the mind of the Brown/Oxford educated Wunderkind (what, our flagship LSU wasn't good enough?), and further refined by last year’s Postsecondary Education Review (aka Tucker) Commission, LA Grad Act was born, and the endorsements began to roll in. Oil spill, shmoil spill. Nothing can deter this. Not even that little issue with soon to be former Commissioner of Higher Education Sally Clausen's early retirement. This is critical. This will save Louisiana!!! And create a more educated trained workforce, ready to work as ticket takers, cashiers, and poultry processors, which are our jobs of the future!!! (Especially now that our some of our existing job market is dispersing faster than Corexit-laced oil. Thanks, BP!)
Jindal’s point man in the legislature, Jim Tucker, R-Algiers, has been largely responsible for getting this bill through session, just as he had been responsible for ensuring that the bill was crafted to Jindal’s liking through the ad hoc PERC created during the last legislative session. It is indeed a thing of political beauty, and Tucker has been doing his job well, or at least I would think so if I were Jindal. How do you cut higher education budgets further while saying that from here on out budgets will be preserved? How do you get some of the more, er, problematic institutions to close or merge without doing it yourself and thus avoiding looking like an oil-blackened pelican from the political fallout? How do you force higher ed to devote scarce resources toward fixing Louisiana’s horribly broken PK-12 system? How do you get everyone to heap accolades on it, even those who may be hurt by it? Build a more perfect Trojan Horse.
However, due to my job in higher ed, I have access to data, most but not all of which are publicly available, which have allowed me to poke around inside GRAD Act and see what lurketh there.
It conceals a potentially huge civil rights travesty. Its "success" will be based upon largely resegregating higher education in Louisiana, assuming my analysis is correct. And of course it will likely save hundreds of millions of dollars per high school graduating class a year. At least. Assuming that all the students currently going to college in Louisiana continue to (or can) pursue some sort of postsecondary education once this thing is fully implemented. And assuming all the 4-year institutions currently open in our state survive without closing, merging, turning into 2-year institutions, or what I would imagine might be in Jindal's most perfect universe, privatizing.
Now, what is this GRAD Act, and what is it supposed to do?
According to Louisiana's Board of Regents:
Currently, Louisiana is the only state in the nation that requires a two-thirds vote of the Legislature to raise college tuition. This requirement ties the hands of campuses in managing their revenues during tough budgetary times which traditionally impact higher education andhealthcare disproportionately in Louisiana. With passage of the GRAD Act, the state’s higher education institutions will be given limited authority to increase tuition in exchange for improved performance in key areas including graduation rates. This measure allows them to remain competitive with peer institutions and create the culture of student success necessary to meet the state’s current and future workforce needs.
The GRAD Act’s simple goal of improving outcomes for college students is one that several university management systems, the Council for a Better Louisiana, BILD Higher Education, Blueprint Louisiana and the Board of Regents unilaterally support. During their March meeting, the Regents unanimously approved a motion indicating their strong commitment to the GRAD Act’s intent. The Board believes that every reasonable option should be placed on the table to resolve the current financial crisis facing higher education. Adoption of the GRAD Act is a critical component in supporting our colleges and universities as they responsibly manage their budgets.
Or, put another way by the Greater Shreveport Chamber of Commerce in their support of GRAD Act:
The LA Grad Act (HB 1171) supported by Governor Jindal will result in significant improvement in the higher education enterprise of our state. The LA Grad Act provides for performance based standards; resources and autonomy to support reform; and higher admission standards for our four year universities.
The LA Grad Act creates a way to help students to get on the right bus in the right seat to their chosen destination.
Higher admission standards encourage a higher percentage of students to begin in two year programs as is the case for successful Southern states like Texas, North Carolina, and Florida. Students then grow into the university rather than find themselves overwhelmed in their first year. This results in less wasted bus trips for students and less wasted bus fares for their parents and the TOPS program.
[As you will see below, the "bus" analogy is very ill-selected, since GRAD Act will end up sending a segment of the population either to the back of or under the postsecondary "bus"]
In other words, the underlying premise of GRAD Act and the Tucker Commission which preceded it was that Louisiana higher education is broken, students aren’t graduating, it costs too much money for not enough return, students aren’t getting educated trained for Louisiana’s fastest growing jobs (ticket takers and cashiers), and by the way, too many students are going to 4-year schools to get 4-year degrees they don’t need for those high demand jobs of the future.
GRAD Act’s secret weapon: the increased admission standards that our state Board of Regents quietly passed in April, just before the legislative session began, and at the end of the academic year when most in academe aren’t really paying attention to anything beyond final grades. In the version of GRAD Act that passed the House, institutions have to sign a performance agreement with the Board of Regents and specifically agree to enact these standards in order to get the "autonomy" promised in the bill. Not that we have a choice anyway—those new admission standards are what they are whether GRAD Act passes or not—but GRAD Act additionally requires institutions to specifically SIGN ON and AGREE to those standards. I'm not an attorney, but I would imagine then they would then be part of binding contracts between the institutions and the Regents. Once GRAD Act is passed, and institutions sign the agreements stipulated in the law, I don't see how there can be any going back on these standards.
Note: All 4-year institutions currently have selective admission standards. We are not open admissions. In fact, as the Regents acknowledged, enough time hasn't elapsed yet to see what the full impact of the last round of selective admissions increases will be but are still continuing to show improvement, so there is not enough evidence, at least not yet, that the current standards aren't adequate.
Those of us working in higher ed administration statewide knew they were coming, and had a basic idea what they would be, but the only ones who really knew that they were actually approved and finalized were those who were scouring the Baton Rouge Advocate every day for education-related news (particularly since the Board of Regents' press release, linked above, only cited some of the requirements). Several in higher ed had already argued against them because even though the goals in GRAD Act are to raise 6-year graduation rates to certain levels, the standards may not actually significantly help institutions reach those goals, since we are now at the point of diminishing returns, where high school GPAs may a better predictor of success than test scores, particularly among minority students. But approved they were.
They start going into effect in 2012, but won’t be fully implemented until 2014. Enough time for Bobby Jindal and Jim Tucker and whoever else to get away from the political shrapnel once things start blowing up. Since the requirements as represented in the Advocate article linked above aren't totally accurate, there are three levels or tiers of minimum admissions criteria (institutions can adopt more selective criteria, and some already have):
Flagship (aka LSU) – 3.0 minimum core curriculum GPA or 25+ ACT composite, no remediation in math or English as measured by either the ACT or SAT
Statewide (University of New Orleans, Louisiana Tech, and University of Louisiana at Lafayette) – 2.5 core curriculum GPA or 23+ ACT composite, no remediation in math or English as measured by either the ACT or SAT
Regional (the 10 remaining 4-year institutions) – starting in 2014, 2.0 core curriculum GPA or 20+ ACT composite, no remediation in math or English as measured by either the ACT or SAT
Looks fine, doesn’t it? Three distinct minimum admission criteria for each tier. But anyone who is in education, whether secondary or higher ed, should be able to see where the problem might be. Once you get much below a 3.0 GPA, it becomes increasingly less likely that a student won’t need remediation in either math or English. And below a 2.5 GPA it becomes statistically near impossible. Especially in math, which is a huge problem nationwide, not just in Louisiana. And the "market" with the smallest number is, you guessed it, the market for the largest number of 4-year institutions in the state. After 2014, Louisiana's 4-year institutions will essentially all be competing for the EXACT SAME STUDENTS. I guess that is one way to, as the Regents put it, "remain competitive with peer institutions."
One of the data sets I have access to which is copyrighted and not public allows me to play "what if" with different recruiting and admissions scenarios. It’s put out by one of the big testing agencies and along with access to their test score data from a recent graduating class, you can measure your conversion (how many students from a particular graduating class send you scores and/or apply) and yield (how many students actually attend your institution). So I can measure market share, whether messages and recruitment initiatives are reaching the right audiences, whether they’re successful, etc. It can also help plan new strategies in new or current markets, see who the primary competitors are in those markets, and play "what if" with those strategies.
So, being the good strategician and data maven that I am, I used this software and data set to see what our state’s new 4-year qualified market would look like in 2014 when they are fully implemented. I knew the impact would be significant based on what I already conjectured above, but I was stunned at what I found.
Since these are from that copyrighted source, I won’t give exact numbers, but will give rounded ones and percentages.
(all based on the minimum criteria noted above. Actual admission requirements may vary BUT can not go BELOW minimum, just above)
Flagship qualified (1 institution):
All populations: ~11,000 (~82%)
African Americans: ~1,300 (~72%)
Add statewide qualified (3 institutions):
All populations: ~1,700
African Americans: ~350
Add regional qualified (10 institutions):
All populations: ~600
African Americans: ~150
2009 Postsecondary enrollment - first time freshmen (source, LA Board of Regents)
21,354 4-year
5,641 African-American 4-year
16,084 2-year
6,836 African-American 2-year
2014 criteria
~13,300 qualify 4-year
Drop of ~8,000 (-37%)
~1800 African-American qualify 4-year
Drop of ~3840 (-68%)
MEANING that starting in 2014, nearly 40% fewer Louisiana first time freshmen who currently enroll in a postsecondary institution would be qualified for a 4-year public. Where now 75% of graduating seniors who go on to a postsecondary institution out of high school (above national average), in 2014 it will be approximately a 50%/50% split (below national average—nationally it’s 60% 4-year/40% 2-year). And almost 70% fewer of our African-American first time freshmen currently going to postsecondary education would be qualified to go to a four year institution.
When I applied these criteria to the number of first time freshmen who began attending Louisiana institutions in the fall 2009 (which includes the entire first time freshman market, not just those who just graduated high school. But recent grads make up the bulk of the 4-year new enrollees), fewer than 15% of African-Americans would have gone to a 4-year school. 85% would go to the 2-years. Right now the split among the entire entering freshman market is 45% 4-years/55% 2-years.
Also note that our HBCUs (Southern, Grambling) are all in that regional category. They will have no discrete traditional first time freshman market, unless you consider a near-literal handful of students a "market." NONE. We are talking in the mid-hundreds who will qualify for "regional only." And fewer than 200 African-Americans. STATEWIDE!!!! Out of over 40,000 graduating seniors, over 25,000 of whom take a college core prep curriculum!!! THAT IS NOT A DISCRETE MARKET BUT IS A SHAM!!! IT IS A CIVIL RIGHTS TRAVESTY LAYING IN WAIT!!!!
And the figures I have may actually be a bit low because the self reported cumulative GPA via the testing service is probably a bit more generous than the actual academic core curriculum GPA stipulated in the new admissions criteria.
The other thing that I did, which is based on publicly available information, is calculate out what the cost savings would be, since expenditures per student is so much lower at 2-year institutions than at 4-years (roughly half). I’m writing a book here so I will spare you the details, but anyone else can replicate this from Board of Regents and state budget data. Based on my really quick armchair calculations simply dividing expenditures by enrollment, the state can potentially save at least $400 million per high school graduation class a year. Note that the budget gap the legislature is trying to close right now is up over $300 million, which is essentially the gap created by Stelly’s repeal. I’m sure there are more potential savings if institutions merge/close/shrink/privatize/whatever, or if fewer students end up going to postsecondary altogether. Postsecondary "leak" is very possible unless something is done to increase capacity at our underfunded, overmandated community colleges. Our oldest and largest community college actually turned down 1500 students last fall.
I cried in my office on and off for a couple hours over what horrible political genius is behind GRAD Act. And then started telling everyone I could about it, sharing my analysis, and challenging others to test it or replicate it to make sure I am correct. And since I’m having limited success getting the word out behind the scenes, now I’m here, writing my first diary, knowing that my career may be jeopardized as a result of my hitting the publish button, but I don’t really care. Right is right, wrong is wrong, and if there are any repercussions because I chose what’s right, then bring it on. Oilpocalypse may make this moot since such a big part of our state’s budget is predicated on oil prices and royalties. I don’t know what the eventual impact of that will be, other than that it will likely be significant. BUT someone HAS to know what Jindal and his followers are trying to pull off here, whether the fall out from Deepwater Horizon renders it irrelevant or not.