The nation of Kyrgyzstan entered a period of extreme instability when its previous government was overthrown. For a few weeks, the change of government appeared to be successful, as a provisional government prepared for a constitutional referendum to create the next legitimate permanent government.
However, it now appears that the provisional government has lost control of its southern region, with the second and third largest cities having been overrun by large numbers of rioters, who are attacking government targets as well as launching bloody pogroms against the Uzbek minority.
As a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional security organization set up by China and Russia in 2001 to check NATO' expansion into Central Asia, the Kyrgyz provisional gov't has requested a military peacekeeping force from the SCO, which request is currently under discussion. If approved, this would be the first mission for the organization's military forces. With a vital NATO base and supply route in Kyrgyzstan, it would be a historic mission.
The latest on the current round of fighting is that about 80 people are confirmed killed, thousands wounded, with many more casualties unknown, but now it is nighttime and the hostilities have decreased. On Friday, the southern capital of Osh was wracked by quickly escalating fighting between what was described as gangs of Kyrgyz and Uzbek youth, in which automatic weapons were reported used in fierce urban clashes. By Saturday, Osh was no longer under government control, the third largest city of Jalal Abad was also on the verge, with large groups of undefined assailants overrunning at least one military base and several government buildings. Fires and looting raged throughout the region, with an alleged focus on Uzbek owned businesses. The videos available now possess an ominous quality, as if there lurks just off camera an unknown force about to attack.
The interim leader of the country declared the afflicted areas live fire zones for its troops and appealed for international assistance to quell the spread of fighting. The motivations of the rioters are under debate, with the interim gov't predictably seeing the hand of the ousted former President behind an attempt to destabilize the current regime and its preparations for a constitutional referendum, while Western commenters have been playing up the Uzbek ethnic identity of the majority of the victims.
The English language media are so far reporting only that the Kyrgyz government has appealed to Russia for military aid, but more correctly the request was to the SCO pact members, with Russia being the member most capable of quick projections of force. Russia immediately referred the matter to the organization and most importantly to its Chinese partner. Even non Russia speakers can watch this ominous announcement by the Russian President Medvedev and grave faced members of the Politburo of the Chinese People's Republic. That joint announcement from yesterday was about the decision of the SCO to grant Kyrgyzstan's previous request for assistance and dispatch humanitarian aid and election observers to help with the upcoming referendum. Much weightier matters of intervention are currently under discussion.
Kyrgyzstan's powerful neighbor Uzbekistan, Central Asia’s most populous nation and an aspiring power player in the SCO, is heavily involved because it is the Uzbek population which is bearing the brunt of the current unrest. Thousands of Uzbek refugees have begun streaming across the now open border between the two countries.
The element that makes this of particular interest to American and NATO interests are the gigantic Manas air base, an essential link in the tenuous supply chain between the Western homelands and the theaters of operation for Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Not only supplies, but also combat missions are flown continuously through Kyrgyz airspace to deposit their various payloads on the battle scarred regions to the south. In addition, Kyrgyzstan recently became a vital hub on the northern supply land route from Europe through Russia and down along several routes through Central Asia, which NATO has been trying to set up as an alternative to the southern route through Pakistan, where convoys are subject to routine attacks from Pakistan based insurgents.
Interestingly, the Kyrgyz revolutionaries who overthrew President Bakiyev in the recent coup, back when they were just opposition figures, had excoriated Bakiyev for giving in to American pressure and renewing the lease, and obtained much sympathy from the public with their uncompromising opposition to this basing deal. However, they quickly retracted that position when they were faced with the reality of running a small country sandwiched between empires like a shrimp among whales. Until the current riots broke out, causing jitters among the world powers, the Americans were breathing a tenuous sigh of relief that its bases and routes were in reliable hands. After all, on the second day of their administration, the interim government hurriedly announced its intention to leave the base open for at least another year.
Although the Manas base issue is the most obvious angle for a Westerner viewing these developments, the West has only tenuous connections in that region and in actuality it will be Kyrgyzstan's neighbors who will be most affected and who have the power to intervene in the situation. Of these neighbors, arguably only Russia received the news of the April presidential ouster with joy. Bakiyev was faulted for his corruption and his despotism, but even more for his increasingly close dealings with the Americans. Last year, Bakiyev had appeared poised not to renew for a short term the American lease of the air base, but the Obama Administration offered him more money and other unspecified rewards (which, given the Bakiyev clan's notorious corruption, must have been massive) and Bakiyev relented.
But with the interim government quickly and strenuously removing any objections they might have had prior to their seizure of power to the American presence, for a sizable reward to be worked out this summer, it is fairly clear that the Americans are there to stay and no regime change will affect that given the US' enormous financial resources and the Kyrgyz officials' legendary rapacity. It could therefore be argued that the only way for Russia to see the American presence end would be to destabilize the country completely, making continued American presence no longer viable or even safe. This would be the worst case development from the US perspective -- having fatally destabilized its former supply route country, Pakistan, the America cannot afford to lose this recently opened northern route to its war zone. An alternative route through Tajikistan and Uzbekistan does exist, but is itself dangerous and destabilizing.
Given Russia’s potential motivation in causing havoc around the US base, the quick appeal to Russia by the Kyrgyz interim President might be as much an attempt to force Russia to take responsibility and put an end to its own mischief as a genuine plea for help. Or it might be motivated for a myriad other less obvious reasons which we cannot evaluate due to the lack of any real, non-propagandized information on the subject. Regardless of the motivation of the Kyrgyz government, the SCO mutual security charter has now been invoked and the SCO owes its member some sort of assistance in response. What shape that assistance will take is currently unknown, but its' definitely worth keeping an eye on. If the SCO intervenes in a military manner, it will be first such mission for the recently formed organization, and a powerful message to NATO about the SCO's readiness to bear responsibility for security for this region even in the face of the relentlessly expanding NATO presence currently numbering in the hundreds of thousands, which has already sent waves of instability throughout this troubled region. However, the Chinese are notoriously risk averse and will be very careful in taking any action which could be interpreted as a threat by the Western hegemon. In addition, China, unlike Russia, actually shares a border with Kyrgyzstan and would not be interested in receiving any influx of Muslim refugees into its turbulent Uighur provinces. Any actions China takes will likely exhibit the usual extreme caution and moderation for which Chinese foreign policy has become known.
Meanwhile, Russia's mixed motivations concerning the Kyrgyz dealings with the Americans, and Russia's role in the region and its potential destabilization as a result of the American War on Terror, Russia's own exploits in the Caucasus, and other factors cannot be fathomed by anyone. Russian media are striving to portray Russia as a disinterested and noble alliance partner, weighing its treaty obligations in light of the humanitarian crisis looming to its south. Given Russia's autocratic and often paranoically peevish and irrational decision making process, its course is anyone's guess. Russia does have its own air base in Kyrgyzstan, which would serve as a launch pad for any operations.
Meanwhile, the SCO member most motivated to do something is clearly Uzbekistan, which is receiving the brunt of the refugee crisis and whose population cannot remain unaffected by the suffering of their ethnic brethren across the recently established border. As fellow Muslim countries, the smaller SCO members of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan would be expected to contribute peacekeeping forces from their aging Soviet era militaries. Even Iran, which has an observer status, might want to play a role of some kind.
For now the SCO and NATO both watch and wait, to see how the developments play out and what course of action might become necessary.