As we reach the midpoint of this month, the Wrap is as jam-packed as I can ever remember it. How the heck did all this happen on a Tuesday, for crying out loud?!?!
It is internal poll-fest here on the Wrap today, and the fact that they are virtually all Republican internal polls is telling in and of itself. A couple of surprise endorsements/non-endorsements also made the cut today, and the Meg Whitman tote board is spinning yet again (nine figures is just around the corner.
All this, and a heckuva lot more, on the Tuesday edition of the Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
CA-Sen: RW pollster says Senate race is all knotted up
New numbers out of the Golden State today, but with a big-ass caveat atttached to them: the new poll emanates from right-wing media outlet Pajamas Media, and their pollster-of-choice (Cross Target). They have incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer and GOP nominee Carly Fiorina all knotted up at 47% each. Remember, however, that this was the same pollster that had Scott Brown leading by double digits in both of their forays into Massachusetts this winter (Brown wound up winning by just under 5% of the vote).
FL-Sen: Crist's latest policy reversal--Cuba
Charlie Crist's declarations of independence continue unabated, with the local hot-button issue of Cuba the latest source for a policy shift from the state's Republican-turned-Independent Governor. Crist, once an advocate for placing financial disincentives on companies offering travel to Cuba, has backed off of that stance, vocally supporting the Obama administration's decision to lift travel restrictions to the island. It might assist his bottom line, as well, since several potentially lucrative donors support the easing of the travel ban.
LA-Sen: Dueling Senate polls in the Pelican State post-BP
Depending on which pollster you are buying stock in, there has either been a pretty substantial shift in the Louisiana Senate race, or no shift at all, in the wake of the Deepwater Horizon incident. A new poll from Republican-affiliated Magellan Strategies has incumbent Republican David Vitter leading Democratic challenger Charlie Melancon by twenty points (51-31). Meanwhile, a new poll from PPP (teased for tomorrow but given exclusively in advance to Roll Call) showed the race considerably closer, with Vitter only leading the Democrat by nine (46-37). The PPP poll also shows that recent events have apparently taken a huge chunk out of Vitter's approval ratings, as he has dropped to a very middling 45-43 spread.
NV-Sen: Angle evades press as ideological past continues to be unearthed
Sharron Angle, the newly minted Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate continues to make jaws drop from coast-to-coast. Her affiliation with the far-right Independent American Party gets explored today by TPMDC, who notes that several members cite that she only left the fringe party out of political expediency, because the Republican Party line was a safer bet. Angle came to DC today, and promptly ducked the press. In a sign of supreme confidence, NRSC head John Cornyn actually said today that it will be "a few weeks" until the GOP nominee will be ready to face the press corps.
NC-Sen: MoveOn involves itself in competitive Dem runoff election
MoveOn is moving in to the Tar Heel State, offering its take on which candidate should emerge from next week's runoffs as the Democratic nominee to challenge Republican Richard Burr. The progressive organization chose to endorse Secretary of State Elaine Marshall over former state legislator Cal Cunningham. This puts MoveOn at odds with the national Democrats, whose preference for Cunningham dates back to their recruitment of him after Marshall had already entered the race.
SC-Sen: C.R.E.W. smells a rat in Greene races, as well as others
The latest twist in the Alvin Greene primary victory saga came from Washington, rather than the Palmetto State. It was in DC that Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) called for both a federal and state investigation into last week's Democratic primary. The organization called for both a statewide investigation (to look at whether Greene and others were induced by outside forces to run for office) and an FEC investigation (into several instances of failure to report by these shadowy SC candidates). An executive committee of the South Carolina Democratic Party will meet later in the week to determine whether or not to vacate the election, as has been requested by Victor Rawl, the man who was defeated in last week's primary.
THE U.S. HOUSE
KY-06: GOP internal says add this race to the target lists
Remembering, of course, the usual caveats about internal polling, we present new numbers in an intriguing race: the battle in nominally conservative KY-06 between third-term Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler and well-funded GOP newcomer Andy Barr. According to an internal poll for Barr, it is a seven-point race (subscription only). This could, of course, be believable: this is, after all, a McCain-carried district, and Barr has raised a fair amount of cash. The poll is a little dusty, though: it was conducted last month, in the wake of Barr's primary election victory. Therefore, the afterglow of the primary win might be skewing the numbers, as well.
LA-02: Potentially strong Cao opponent makes it official
His entrance into the race is no surprise, and yet it should make Republican incumbent Anh "Joseph" Cao at least a little nervous. State Representative Cedric Richmond, who narrowly missed making the runoff here in 2008, made a formal announcement on Monday that he will seek the seat again, ripping Cao in his announcement speech. State legislator Juan LaFonta is already in the field, as state Senator Karen Carter Peterson is also eyeing the race.
MS-01: Childers trails in re-election bid, according to GOP internal
Republican internal polling has identified another imperiled Democratic incumbent, although this one is not liable to be much of a surprise. A poll for GOP nominee Alan Nunnelee claims that the challenger now has an eight-point lead (50-42) over Democratic incumbent Travis Childers. The pollster claims that this is a major reversal from March, when Childers led by nine points.
NC-08: Kissell leads either Republican, but margin varies widely
It is the longest of longshots, but Democratic freshman Larry Kissell has to be rooting hard for tea party acolyte Tim D'Annunzio in next week's runoff elections. The reason? A new poll out today from PPP, which shows a double-digit performance gap between former broadcaster Harold Johnson and D'Annunzio. The controversial D'Annunzio gets blasted by Kissell (48-26), while Johnson lies very much within striking range, trailing Kissell by six points (41-35). Interestingly, Kissell's margin expands when progressive Independent candidate Wendell Fant is factored in (40-30-14), although Tom Jensen of PPP posits (correctly, I would speculate) that Fant stealing more GOP votes is a function of him being a relative unknown. Kissell, for what it's worth, has seen his approval crater with Democrats in the wake of his hostility towards health care reform. Did it earn him any goodwill from Republicans? Nah...his approvals dropped double digits with them, as well. Another lesson for recalcitrant Dems, to be sure.
OK-02: Boren posts huge lead in internal primary polling
In a rather obvious exercise of innoculation, conservative Democrat Dan Boren is eager to rebut any notion that he is endangered by the primary challenge to his left coming from state Senator Jim Wilson. He released an internal poll from Myers Research showing him leading Wilson by a 68-24 margin. Boren's HCR vote was an instrumental factor in earning a challenge from Wilson, who filed just before the deadline last week. The primary will be held on July 27th, affording Wilson precious little time to bridge the gap.
OR-01: Another potential GOP target? Internal poll says "Yes"
Personally, I have a harder time buying this one than the one in Kentucky. That said, a new internal poll for newly minted GOP nominee Rob Cornilles says that the challenger is only six points behind longtime Democratic incumbent David Wu in this suburban district (46-40). Cornilles survived a teabagging in last month's primary, coming in well under 50% of the primary vote despite an extremely well-funded effort.
VA-05: McKelvey to cause Hurt some pain--stays on sidelines
Last week, the Wrap reported that Republican nominee Rob Hurt was circling the conservative wagons in an effort to stave off right-wing opposition in his bid to knock off Democratic freshman Tom Perriello. His efforts hit a snag, as both the local Tea Party group, as well as primary runner-up Jim McKelvey, refused to endorse the Republican nominee.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: Meg Whitman--paragon of fiscal discipline
When Meg Whitman campaigns on cutting spending, someone might want to tell her that having spent about six bucks per registered voter...by the middle of freaking JUNE, ain't exactly the model of fiscal discipline. Disclosure forms show that Whitman, the GOP nominee for Governor, cut herself another eight-figure check, and has now self-financed her bid for higher office to the tune of...wait for it...$91 million.
In other CA-Gov news, for what it is worth, that right-wing CrossTarget/Pajamas Media poll alluded to earlier in the Wrap also looked at the gubernatorial race, and found Whitman trailing Democratic nominee Jerry Brown. The poll showed Brown leading Whitman 46-43. Given how optimistic CT/PM were in their assessment of the MA-Senate race in January (these were the guys that had Scott Brown up 15 points), Brown has to feel reasonably good about these numbers.
FL-Gov: McCollum internal shows him...in a mediocre position
How the mighty have fallen: one-time gubernatorial frontrunner Bill McCollum, the Republican Attorney General of Florida, now can only produce an internal poll showing him tied with newcomer Rick Scott. The poll shows McCollum deadlocked with the health care magnate, with each man drawing 40% of the vote.
OR-Gov: Is history on Kitzhaber's side? Yes, says UM study
This item is not so much a breaking news item, but it is interesting nonetheless. The University of Minnesota went back a half-century, and looked at former Governors seeking a return to office, just as Democrat John Kitzhaber is attempting to do in Oregon this year. The verdict? Not too bad, actually. Such candidates have been successful 63% of the time, according to the study. The drawback? Only one such case has occurred since 2000, when Tony Knowles' Democratic comeback bid was derailed by Sarah Palin.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Ras drops a bit on the volume today, but not on the ideological bent.
All together now: Republicans good...across the board.
CO-Gov: Scott McInnis (R) 46%, John Hickenlooper (D) 41%
CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 41%, Dan Maes (R) 41%
SC-Sen: Sen. Jim DeMint (R) 58%, Alvin Greene (D) 21%
SD-Gov: Dennis Daugaard (R) 52%, Scott Heidepriem (D) 36%