When Terry Branstad rejected defeated GOP guber wannabe Bob Vander Plaats' request to be included on his ticket this fall it raised the specter the Tea Party fave may pull a Lieberman and run an independent campaign for governor. Such a move would virtually guarantee the reelection of embattled Democrat Chet Culver, according to some analysts.
It also could scramble the 2012 presidential race before it really begins. Mike Huckabee - who has recently sent signals he may be reconsidering his decision to not run again - would have the most at stake. But others GOP hopefuls, who have lined up behind nominee Terry Branstad could find themselves alienated by the most ardent Tea Party activists if they don't tread lightly as Vander Plaats considers his next move.
From the Iowa Independent:
News broke Thursday that a meeting had occurred between Vander Plaats and GOP gubernatorial nominee Terry Branstad. At that meeting, Vander Plaats apparently asked for a spot on the ticket, an idea that was rejected. That rejection opened the door for a potential third-party run for governor this fall.
Several sources with knowledge of the situation confirmed to The Iowa Independent this week that Vander Plaats is seriously considering a run, with the chances of him entering the race at about 50/50. Since the rumors became public, Vander Plaats had repeatedly refused comment to the media, but the Cedar Rapids Gazette’s James Lynch reports he did send a text message to one of his advisers stating his immediate priorities as, “to unite the party, defeat Chet Culver and ensure leadership 4 IA.”
Vander Plaats, who ran as the Mike Huckabee/Chuck Norris-backed social conservative in the GOP primary and promised to ban gay marriage on Day 1 in office (even though such a move by the governor would be unconstitutional) surprised some national observers by his ability to make the race against the former governor as close as he did. Apparently, that impressive vote total is what is propelling him to continue his Tea Party-fueled insurgency.
It may look short-sighted today, but to Tea Party activists aiming to control the critical Iowa GOP in the 2012 nominating contest, having Culver in the Governor's Mansion might strengthen their insurgents effort to keep the issues they care about on the front burner. If Branstad is in office exerting his influence over the nominating caucuses, it becomes more difficult for Tea Party activists to make their mark on the nominating process.
“In many ways, the Vander Plaats folks would prefer a Culver victory over one for Branstad,” Gillette said. “They do not like Culver, but Branstad’s victory in November would limit options for them in years to come – like who gets to be party chair, who controls party resources and who is in charge of the messaging carried and heard by conservatives. The heart of the battle in Iowa is not about winning an office, but for who controls the Republican/conservative/Tea Party cause. Vander Plaats is not ready to go into that good night and Branstad puts a significant dent into the aspirations of many who support Vander Plaats.”
Gillette predicted before the primary that if Vander Plaats got 40 percent of the vote — which he did — that it would motivate him to continue his campaign as an independent. While he may doom the party’s nominee, Gillette says Vander Plaats is really in a no-lose situation.
“If Vander Plaats walks away, he is a three time loser,” he said. “If runs as an independent candidate and Branstad wins, Vander Plaats gets to call himself a martyr for the cause. If he runs and Culver wins, Vander Plaats supporters will say that the wrong guy won in June and will continue to inveigle their way into the party apparatus.”
Also posted at StateHouseRock