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A day after a poll from Gallup says No Sign That Obama's Overall Job Approval Rating Has Been Significantly Affected", the NBC/WSJ poll  (MoE +/- 3.1) says  

This is a president who has been bruised and bloodied by the events of the past few months, although not yet knocked down, say the Democratic and Republican pollsters who conducted the survey.

"There is just no way that an American president is not going to see his job rating affected" after these events, observed GOP pollster Bill McInturff. "The little faint signs [of improvement] we were seeing in April and May have been squished by two months of this story in the Gulf."

Full results of the new poll are here, and are driving conversation on NBC and MSNBC. One of my frequent criticisms of media polls is the tendency to just look at your own. Still this is a very respected poll with a great track record of sharing data.

The story for the media is dropping Obama approval, now at 45/48. Also noted is a dropping right/wrong track (29/62, worst of the Obama administration) and a generic ballot that for the first time in years favors the GOP (at 45 GOP/43 Dem.) And the title quote comes from Peter Hart.

You know people are frustrated when they suggest voting for Republicans. People don't like Republicans (their positive/negative score is -12). But what's happened is negative perception of Democrats (now at -9) is growing.

Still, there's some interesting data in the numbers. Look at these other positive/negative scores, hardly an endorsement of Republicans:

Look at those BP numbers. Anyone wondering if Joe "I apologize" Barton will stay a topic for Democrats to discuss?

The economy, of course, tops all. Here, Obama gets a 46/50 approve/disapprove (was 48/46 in May.)

It's not health care that's driving the numbers. Asked about the Obama health care bill being a good idea or bad idea, the good bad numbers are 40/44, the best it's been in months. But what really irks people is the perception that the deficit has gotten too big, with spending out of control.

Some very interesting things emerge from the table of candidate characteristics, which are given a fav/unfav score depending on how the public feels about a candidate with these characteristics (see How would you feel if a candidate was endorsed by Sarah Palin? for details and an example.) For example, a candidate who supports cutting federal spending gets a +46, but a candidate who is endorsed by Obama gets a -7 (same as being a tea party supporter). And if you were wondering, an endorsement by Sarah Palin is worth a -27, and supporting the economic policies of George W. Bush is a -39. Sharron Angle's position? "Supports abolishing some federal agencies, including the Department of Education" and "Supports phasing out Social Security and instead supports allowing workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market" both get a -42.

Still, the hit on the Obama numbers is the main story. From the WSJ write-up:

Support for Mr. Obama and his party is declining among centrist, independent voters. But, more ominous for the president, some in his base also are souring, with 17% of Democrats disapproving of Mr. Obama's job performance, the highest level of his presidency.

Whether its the ongoing spill, the jobs numbers or the McChrystal firing, we'll need to see if these numbers are sustained or yet another blip. But one thing's certain: trying to make this into a "choice, and we are better than them" rather than a "referendum on us" election is going to be central to Democratic strategy from now until November. The question remains:  given how much people don't like Republicans, what's that mean when it comes to November? This is as good a summary as any:

Much of the erosion in Obama's numbers has come from the middle. His approval among independents is upside down at 37%-52%; his approval in the suburbs is 44%-50%; his approval among suburban women is at 44%-51%; and his approval in the Midwest -- which was an important source of strength for him in 2008, in both the primaries and general election -- is at 44%-52%. What continues to sustain Obama, even during these tough times, is his base. African Americans approve of his job by a whopping 91%-5%; Hispanics back him 60%-33%; those 18 to 34 approve of his job by a 53%-40% (though that's down); and Democrats back him 76%-17% (though that's also down a few ticks). Our pollsters wouldn't say if Obama's overall approval rating has reached its floor, but they say that the way he gets his numbers up is for the right track/wrong track numbers to improve. And that means more people feeling better about the state of the economy and the situation in the Gulf.

Little support for Republican/teabagger policy, no rehab for Bush, great unhappiness with the status quo. The Gulf situation may well be better by November, but the economy and jobs? We'll see.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 04:46 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  What these numbers tell me... (19+ / 0-)

    ...is that absent any real constructive plan for the country, the GOP has succeeded with plan B: to make "government" such a negative thing that it drives numbers down for Democrats as well as for Republicans.

    This cannot end well.

    The opposite of hope and change is despair and stasis.

    by ipsos on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 04:50:31 PM PDT

    •  Why does the Republican Party… (10+ / 0-)

      …hate America?

      Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com

      by DemSign on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 04:51:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We've got to keep pushing that meme... (7+ / 0-)

        ...especially after the jobs bill got killed today by those Obstructionist Republicans.

        Here's how I'm starting to see the fall shaping up: I think our best chance for averting a huge loss in the House will be to focus not so much on saving endangered incumbents (some of whom deserve to get their behinds handed to them, like Michael "No on the Healthcare Bill" Arcuri, "D"-NY24) as on making as many strong challenges to GOP incumbents, even ones who look relatively safe right now. I think they're weaker than they think they are.

        The opposite of hope and change is despair and stasis.

        by ipsos on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:02:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Because It Costs Them a TON of Money nt (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wader, nonnie9999, ipsos

        We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

        by Gooserock on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:04:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Well lets see what the Unemployed have to say now (6+ / 0-)

      that the Republicans have blocked further unemployment and have filibustered the Job Bill...

      •  The problem is that the average Joe doesn't know (10+ / 0-)

        what a filibuster is.  Or that the republicans are blocking their benefits.  All they know is that Obama is president and because of some technicality they don't understand in a dem controlled congress, they don't have their money.  So they blame the dems.  We have to get better a messaging and getting the info out to the average person.

        •  I midly agree with that.... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ipsos

          I refused to except ignorance of a word as an excuse as why Struggling American citizen shouldn't be told as to who is causing their struggles to continue.... Laymen Terms.....

          This can be simply exposed with a simple commercial/Viral Youtube Video... Listing all those who voted to block unemployment benefits...

          Each state should highlight that Senator who voted against the Jobs Bills... It's very simple...

          Some of this is not Rocket Science... List how much the Senators are worth financially and that would begin to piss a lot of American people off... whether they are employed or unemployed... because I promise you their financial records will not compare to the amount of money these Senators are making...

          Everyone knows someone who is unemployed.....and everyone knows someone who is close to being unemployed.... They want these people so desperate to take a job that they would be willing to take anything... Cementing the Republican Plan of suppressing the wages... The have no problem with the American People working hard for pennies while these Senators continue to rake it in huge financially....

          Told in the right way will piss eventually piss of the American People.... I guarantee it...

    •  Even more it shows that they (8+ / 0-)

      have been able to stop any real, substantial laws that will help the country. When the country loses under a Democrat the GOP wins.

      They claimed this was true of Democrats while they were in control but they got bills passed with Democratic votes. They vote against any bill in lock step because they know when the bill doesn't pass it is viewed as a Democratic loss. So they will fuck the unemployed, fuck the environment, fuck foreign policy... in order to keep the country in distress just so that they can call this Democratic President congress a failure.

      That is more important to them than the success of this country when Democrats are in charge.

      Still a man hears what he wants to hear And disregards the rest

      by Mike S on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:00:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That Was Plan A on Nov 5 2008. (5+ / 0-)

      And when teh Crazey started happening in early-mid 2009 I was tearing my hair out pointing out that this was all about 2010.

      But I don't think any Democrat could've anticipated that laser targeting "government failure" and "deficit" in a base-dominated midterm, while Dems talked softly and governed for low-midterm-turnout moderates, could possibly be a problem.

      The madness will escalate through November.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:03:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  They're tyring... (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jim J, El Zmuenga, ipsos, crystalboy, moonpal

      to rewrite US history wholesale, but since such a large percentage of Americans are oblivious to their own nation's history, it's actually working.

      •  That's no accident, it's a plan (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jim J, davej

        You think the assault on public education over the last few decades wasn't designed, at least in part, to create a generation without enough understanding of history to reject the Glenn Beck version?

        The opposite of hope and change is despair and stasis.

        by ipsos on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:14:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  "what this tells me" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wader

      The "take-away" from this, which NOBODY mentions (that I can see from a quick scan), is that most of these numbers are within the margin of error --- e.g. a tie --- which is not nearly so "bad" for the Democrats as the pundits and pollsters would have us  believe.

    •  The battle's just beginning (0+ / 0-)

      By the time we're through with the Republicans this fall, they will be lucky if they keep us under 65 Senators and don't also lose some House seats.

      Read Teixeira's 2010 report, and see why the GOP is done.

      by Georgeo57 on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:43:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hope you're right (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ipsos

        But the pessimist in me says we walk away with 55 Senators and struggle to maintain the majority in the House.   Then take it all back and more in 2012.

        The republicans are all about freedom and liberty. Until they hear which freedoms and what liberty. Then they just want to restrict both.

        by sgtlejeune on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:48:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The middle-grounder in me... (0+ / 0-)

          ...says we do better than anyone expects in the Senate, thanks to a combination of surprisingly weak GOP candidates (hello, Sharron Angle!) and the whole anti-incumbency thing helping some Democratic newcomers, as in North Carolina.

          I'm less optimistic about the House. I think we maintain control, but I think it's a squeaker.

          The opposite of hope and change is despair and stasis.

          by ipsos on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 06:17:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Would the numbers be as bad… (6+ / 0-)

    …if we'd actually passed the jobs bill today? Any chance unemployment funding could actually get through reconciliation? It seems like a straight budget item to me.

    Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com

    by DemSign on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 04:50:53 PM PDT

    •  It'll Be Major Trouble if There's a Double Dip (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nonnie9999, two roads, tnproud2b

      or at least major state layoffs and service cuts in the months leading up to midterms.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:05:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Probably. (0+ / 0-)


      Would the numbers be as bad...

      They probably would, though the jobs bill debacle doesn't help. Look at the right track/wrong track (29 to 62!). That's the one that really tells the story.

      To quote Howard Beale:

      I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It's a depression. Everybody's out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel's worth; banks are going bust; shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter; punks are running wild in the street, and there's nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there's no end to it...

      We sit in the house, and slowly the world we're living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, "Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials, and I won't say anything. Just leave us alone."


      Which is really, IMO, what most people want, to be left alone. They know they have no control over Wall street or the oil spill, and they know the dems are at least incrementally better. But when 'everybody's out of work or scared of losing their job' then they aren't being 'left alone', and if the situation drags on and on, then to hell with those who can't do anything about it. Maybe the next joker will.

      Saw it with Ford. Saw it with Carter. So look at the right track/wrong track. Therein lies the story.

      The fact is that the average man's love of liberty is nine-tenths imaginary, exactly like his love of sense, justice and truth. - H.L. Mencken

      by two roads on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:45:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dang, Kagan is down there with BP. Don't know if (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueyedace2

    that's a good or bad thing. Maybe it'll be harder to demonize her at next week's conf. hearing or maybe it'll be easier because she's got no cred.

  •  I will (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shpilk, blueyedace2

    continue to ignore the Wall Street Journal/NBC Poll as I have done in pass....

    These polls do not mirror the conversations I have had with regular people....

    •  Who are the "regular people" you are (4+ / 0-)

      talking to? For example, I suspect that if you took a poll of DKos, those numbers would look VERY different from a national poll.  DKos, as a general matter, represents the political view of the left. If you are talking to "regular people" with political views similar to yours, I suspect that this poll does not reflect what they are telling you.  

      Sure, there is a significant segment of the population that approves of the job Obama is doing.  That's what the numbers show.  But the danger is that the numbers pretty consistently show that segment is declining.  That's the danger for the President.  

    •  Continuing to talk to YOUR REGULAR people... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      two roads

      will continue you to have a non realistic view.  Knock on some doors and talk to THOSE REGULAR people, outside of your comfort level.  You will hear a totally different bag.  These numbers, along with the CBS/NYT continue to see a pattern of decline.  Obama shot himself in the foot by NOT being out front on the oil spill, PERCEPTION matters and he is getting assaulted on that front.  But it was the WH call and look where they are at.

      •  I don't (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        live in your world... where your thoughts are premeditated... I refused to get riled up because some polls told me I should...

        I've been quite successful in my communication skills outside the blogs... So guidance from a closed-mind is not something I embrace... It defeats my purpose...

  •  Right or wrong the Buck does stop at the (7+ / 0-)

    President's desk.

    And in the end, once this disaster in the Gulf is over--things will level off.

    However, the job challenge may linger---and there is little he can do in this climate to change that picture significantly.

    Reason #68 why we need to pound the obstructionist Republicans for their failure to help!!

    •  Republicans have created lots of jobs... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nonnie9999, crystalboy, beltane, moonpal

      In India, in China...

      Barack Obama in the Oval Office: There's a black man who knows his place.

      by Greasy Grant on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 04:57:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Peggy Noonan, in her WSJ column yesterday, (5+ / 0-)

      said the president was "snakebit."  Just like Jimmy Carter, she says - too bad, so sad, not his fault - but the public likes a president who is smiled on by fate.

      I don't remember what she wrote when Reagan went through his slumps in popularity, but I'll bet she didn't call him "snakebit."

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:03:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He Was The Mostest Popularest EV-errrrr! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Phil S 33, nonnie9999

        The hyped his popularity at the time and the second he left office they re-historied it to high popularity.

        We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

        by Gooserock on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:07:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Over? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Phil S 33, Jorel
      When will it be over?  it'll be months til it's "over" enough that it's not spewing more oil into the gulf, and a VERY long time before the effects can be improved by ANY measure.

      It will not be "over" in this president's time in office.  Id ont' care if he gets re-elected or not.  Deepwater Horizion will always be with us.

      •  >40K barrels a day (0+ / 0-)

        will stop leaking by August. That doesn't fix everything, but as Joe Biden would say, that's a big fucking deal.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:25:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  by August IF WE'RE LUCKY. (0+ / 0-)

          I dont' have much faith in BP's projection.

          We may be dealing with this gusher til Labor day, or Halloween, or freaking Christmas.

          THAT is a big fucking deal.

          •  I don't believe that (0+ / 0-)

            what I believe is no guarantee, mind you, but relief wells are the typical main solution.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:51:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  They won't make that August (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DemFromCT

        deadline IF there are hurricanes in the Gulf.  Those drilling rigs for the relief wells are just floating barges.  If there's a hurricane in the Gulf, they have to stop drilling, de-mob, and come back to shore.  Then, once the storm passes, they have to go back out and get back underway.  2 or 3 hurricanes in the Gulf, even if they aren't strong, will delay the relief wells by weeks at the very least.  (And I'm in New Orleans, so it pains me to say that.)

        •  no guarantees (0+ / 0-)

          but so far the wells are reported ahead of schedule.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:54:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh, I know that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DemFromCT

            we in New Orleans are following this daily.  We're also very concerned about what is predicted to be higher-than-average activity in the Gulf this season.  The local news reported on a tropical wave predicted to be in the Gulf in the next several days.  

  •  Question driving me crazy: (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, citizenx, nonnie9999, ipsos, wwjjd

    who are the people actually approving of BP?!?  Yacht owners and certifiably batsh!t insane types?!?

    Hey BP! A person's a person, no matter how small!/twittering RL_Miller

    by RLMiller on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 04:56:15 PM PDT

  •  your sister is a whore & your brother is a thief (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, nonnie9999, ipsos

    that's what the giant right  wing radio soapboxes in every state pound into the earholes of 50 mil every week when talking about obama and everyone and everything progressive.

    and the left almost entirely ignores it because it hurts their heads to listen to it.

    what the fuck should anyone expect?

    Progressives will lose all major messaging battles until they picket the limbaugh/hannity megastations and boycott those stations' local sponsors.

    by certainot on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 04:57:09 PM PDT

    •  Democratic Leadership Isn't "The Left." (0+ / 0-)

      And they're the ones who matter in the message war surrender.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:12:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the collective left/liberal/progressive/dem (0+ / 0-)

        population of non fascists ignore talk radio while it creates the constituencies that enable the opposition to anything progressive and enable the media to report the center is right and obama is failing and the right is gaining.

        progressives are getting outshouted on most issues and don't know it, and dem leadership are politicians, after all, and need to be pushed. as long as the 'left' lets itself get outshouted on just about everything dem leadership is not going to feel pushed left.

        Progressives will lose all major messaging battles until they picket the limbaugh/hannity megastations and boycott those stations' local sponsors.

        by certainot on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 06:20:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  PS a dem rep (jim mcdermott?) recently (0+ / 0-)

        went after limbaugh on the floor of the house for his 'let the kids dumpster dive' comment.

        limbaugh went back at him and his staff and i suspect they got a lot of screaming from dittoheads getting limbaugh's back.

        limbaugh and spawn go after all dem leaders fairly regularly like that but no one gets their back in that respect. until that happens dems play without a front line and are generally evaluated without that factored in.

        Progressives will lose all major messaging battles until they picket the limbaugh/hannity megastations and boycott those stations' local sponsors.

        by certainot on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 06:44:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The part in the poll that's mssing? (6+ / 0-)

    Are you comfortable making the rich pay their fair share of the tax burden?

    James Carville emerges from the conflagration riding a burning alligator.

    by shpilk on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 04:58:08 PM PDT

  •  The narrative has got to be (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RoIn, nonnie9999, beltane, gobears2000

    on how Republicans govern and how we are fixing things they broke but that they broke so much stuff that it'll take awhile to fix it all.

    REBOOTNY.org - Time to reboot the New York State Senate

    by Andrew C White on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 04:58:37 PM PDT

  •  NBC has NEVER reported on a positive poll of (8+ / 0-)

    Obama.  Every time they release their poll results,  no matter what the numbers say, they ALWAYS report them as being negative for Obama.

    There was a Gallup poll that had POSITIVE numbers of healthcare for the first time and NOBODY reported on them.

  •  They don't need to support Republican policies (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hester, nonnie9999, blueoregon, two roads

    In a two party system, the issue is that they only need not vote for Democrats, and, as the incumbent party, that's the problem the Democrats will face heading into November.

    How does one make the argument "better than them" as the incumbent party when the incumbent party can't even pass a jobs bill in the middle of one of the worse economic times since the Great Depression?

    How are they going to see the Democrats as better on any policy front? Where are they going to see the BIG contrast versus small steps that will excite the voter to come out to vote?

    This is how one can understand how a Brown can be elected in MA. It is not that the electorate in that state suddenly shift from being liberal to ultra conservative.  It is that they were so disenchanted with the incumbent party that they either didn't vote or voted in protest against the Democrats lack of action.

    I think the Senate will be okay, but I am not so sure about the House.

    On the bright side, there will be a lot less conservative Democrats come January 2011 and the Senate will hopefully change its rules (although I won't better on the later).

  •  As always, some perspective (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, nonnie9999

    Nothing is more important than beating the teabaggers. Nothing.

    by phenry on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:02:51 PM PDT

    •  Bush wasn't running for re-election (0+ / 0-)

      in a couple of years, and his majorities in congress weren't threatened.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:12:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes and What Happened to Him in 2006?? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jorel

      He lost both chambers.

      For us that's conviction on impeachment.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:13:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Here's the issue for the President (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tnproud2b

    in my (admittedly non-scientific) view.  

    The biggest risk is this talk about the deficit.  That may hurt in November, but the President may be resigned to the fact that he'll lose seats in Congress in November.

    However, shortly after the November elections, the President's deficit commission is going to report.  And they are certainly going to recommend signficant tax increases.  Certainly.  And not just on the rich -- there's not enough money there.  In the words of the Tax Policy Center:  

    Washington spends more than it takes in through tax revenues, resulting in a projected budget deficit of almost $1.35 trillion in 2010, or 9 percent of GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Couldn't we get rid of the deficit by raising taxes?

    No. A study we conducted at the Tax Policy Center found that Washington would have to raise taxes by almost 40 percent to reduce -- not eliminate, just reduce -- the deficit to 3 percent of our GDP, the 2015 goal the Obama administration set in its 2011 budget. That tax boost would mean the lowest income tax rate would jump from 10 to nearly 14 percent, and the top rate from 35 to 48 percent.

    What if we raised taxes only on families with couples making more than $250,000 a year and on individuals making more than $200,000? The top two income tax rates would have to more than double, with the top rate hitting almost 77 percent, to get the deficit down to 3 percent of GDP. Such dramatic tax increases are politically untenable and still wouldn't come close to eliminating the deficit.

    So, in the year 2011, when the economy sees recovery, Obama is going to have to support significantly higher taxes on pretty much everybody.  He is almost certainly going to break his pledge of "not one dime" of new taxes on any household making less than $250,000.  He's then going to have to run for re-election on that.  And I'm old enough to know that both raising taxes significantly, and breaking ironclad pledges (Remember GHWB "Read my lips"?) are problematic for a President running for re-election.  

  •  "It's the economy, stupid." (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nonnie9999, icebergslim, moonpal

    "Philosophy is useless; theology is worse"--Dire Straits

    by Bush Bites on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:10:02 PM PDT

  •  The democrats have so much ammunition but (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jim J, icebergslim, MKSinSA, SteelerGrrl

    as usual do not seem to know how to weave a narrative. The economy is the primary issue and the democrats have much to brag on; however, they are being stymied by fucking anti-American republicans that would rather win an election than help actual middle class Americans.

    Listen up Democrats. Show us what you have done, why you have done it, and how Repugs have stood in the way of further progress. Make it short and make it simple so that even the simplest can understand what we stand for and what this election is about. This is not that hard. Don't make me have to come to DC and kick some ass!

    The Ongoing Drama of Palin's Place - for your latest in faux outrage and professional victomhood.

    by delmardougster on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:10:38 PM PDT

  •  I am one of those that want (0+ / 0-)

    a progressive canadate.. ture and simple.. I will reluctantly vote for Obamaa but hope he gets ran against by Kuchenich or Sanders etc..

  •  Long Live Joe Barton!! (0+ / 0-)

    We can't let him die - he's so bad he's good!

    "Our 'neoconservatives' are neither new nor conservative, but old as Babylon and evil as Hell" - Edward Abbey

    by stormserge on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:14:10 PM PDT

  •  He does have to dump Axelrod, tho. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    icebergslim

    Worst White House messaging strategy evah.

    "Philosophy is useless; theology is worse"--Dire Straits

    by Bush Bites on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:17:08 PM PDT

  •  Wait until Democrats begin blaming Bush era (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rainmanjr

    Republicans for creating the 2008 recession, and today's Republicans in Congress for doing everything they can to prevent President Obama from fixing the mess THEY made.

    By September, people will realize that President Obama has done a great job, and many more Republicans have to be thrown out of office if we expect any real progress on the economy and many other issues.

    Read Teixeira's June 2010 pdf,and see why the GOP is done.

    by Georgeo57 on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:29:45 PM PDT

    •  actually (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rainmanjr, icebergslim

      Americans are angry at both the Republican and Democratic parties, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Thursday.

      But the survey also indicates the public continues to blame the GOP more than the Democrats for the country's current economic woes even though the Democrats have controlled both the White House and Congress for a year and a half.

      Fifty-three percent of people questioned say when it comes to the way the Democrats and Republicans have been dealing with the nation's problems, they are angry at both parties, with nine percent saying they're mad only at the Republicans and seven percent angry only at the Democrats. Just over three in ten say they're not angry at either party.

      "That's not good news for the Democrats, since an anti-incumbent mood always hurts the party with more incumbents, but it suggests that 2010 may not be a precise replay of 1994," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

      http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:33:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Don't paint such a broad brush... (0+ / 0-)

      the public is angry at both parties and they have legitimate reason to be so.

  •  byt he way some great perspective on Palin (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jim J, El Zmuenga, rainmanjr, keikekaze

    and how much she is disliked.

    She gets a -14, 2 points omore negative than the GOP, and anyone she endorses gets a discomfort level of -27.

    Outstandingly bad.

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:30:08 PM PDT

  •  Donning the rose-colored glasses (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rainmanjr

    Some of the disapproval comes from disaffected lefties who aren't about to vote Republican. All I hear is bitching these days, that we don't have single payer, or whatever the fantasy was.

  •  By comparison, Bill Clinton.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rainmanjr

    ...at a similar period in his Presidency had an approval rating of about 40. This was the most popular President since Kennedy, who left office with a record approval rating.

    George Bush at a similar point in his second term had a disapproval rating of 71% and an approval rating in the mid 20s.

    Anybody who says the Obama Presidency is in trouble based on his approval ratings is a fool.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 05:40:54 PM PDT

  •  This may also be (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rainmanjr

    a symptom of a strain running through our culture of fix it now, why haven't you fixed it already?

    I think a lot of folks thought Obama was going to fix everything in a year, and the reality is they don't realize just how bad things got and how things aren't going to be completely back to where they were pre-Bush even if Obama and the Dems are in charge another seven years (they won't be completely).

    Obama and the Dems are now paying for that lack of instantaneous solving of multiple intractable problems in a short time.

    I think we are going to be in for a rough election. Our only possible savior is the utter insanity and incompetence of the other side.

  •  It is the WSJ - I would be surprised if the (0+ / 0-)

    numbers were good.

  •  Disaggregate the data (0+ / 0-)

    How many of those dissatisfied with Obama are more progressive and want to encourage him to get more cajones?

    If I were called, I would probably say I generally support him but wouldn't give him an A for courage (perhaps until recently.) My personal hunch is that Rahm is way too political and not as principled as he is. But what I'd say to him right now and how I vote next fall are two different issues.

    Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur.

    by MrMichaelMT on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 06:12:10 PM PDT

    •  skip Obama (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rainmanjr

      I agree with you there, but the worrisome numbers are:

      how much people are ticked off with congress (22/73)
      what the generic ballot looks like (45/43 R/D)
      right/wrong track 29/62
      your rep deserves reelection 35/57

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 06:17:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I wonder about two things... (0+ / 0-)

        First, these are land line polls, aren't they?

        And second, are the results reconciled with the numbers of dems vs. repubs?

        My gut feeling is that if the Hispanics actually vote, the gop is screwed.

        Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur.

        by MrMichaelMT on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 06:22:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  well, many pollsters agree that (0+ / 0-)

          land line alone skews R and older, but most polls account for that, or try to. You can argue about how well, but the 2008 polls nailed the election.

          From this poll:

          (ASK ONLY OF SAMPLE TYPE 2--CELL PHONE ONLY RESPONDENTS.)

          Q1a. Do you have a landline in addition to your cell phone, or is your cell phone the only telephone you have?

          Have a landline .......................... - TERMINATE
          Cell phone is only telephone ............. 100 CONTINUE
          Not sure ................,,,,,,,,,,....... - TERMINATE

          Q2b To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background?

          Yes, Hispanic .................................... 11
          No, not Hispanic ............................... 88
          Not sure/refused ............................. 1

          Q2c And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or something else?
          White ........... 76
          Black ........... 11
          Asian ............ 2
          Other ............ 4
          Hispanic (VOL) ... 6
          Not sure/refused.. 1

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 06:51:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But there's another factor (0+ / 0-)

            The polls get longer and longer. I got Gallupped once a few months back. Took over 20 minutes. People on cells don't finish them because they are paying by the minute, so even if they get called they don't get counted.

            Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur.

            by MrMichaelMT on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 08:21:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  also (0+ / 0-)

          Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as (ROTATE:) a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or
          something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.")

          Strong Democrat ............................. 19
          Not very strong Democrat ............... 14
          Independent/lean Democrat ............ 12
          Strictly Independent ......................... 14
          Independent/lean Republican .......... 10
          Not very strong Republican ............. 10
          Strong Republican ........................... 16
          Other (VOL) ..................................... 4
          Not sure ......................................... 1
          QF5

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 06:53:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Americans are whacked (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    coffejoe

    Many have been saying for some time, on DKos, how the griping about Obama will bring down his polling and, possibly, his presidency.  Here's some tangible proof of that.  17% disapproval from our side is, frankly, insane.  The GOPunks are smiling because this means their strategy of obstruction is working...albeit weakly.  Every point he drops in polls is a win for them.  At the very least, such insane disapproval numbers will mean that GOPunks will continue to fillibuster every single bill.  Congrats, purists, for you are causing us great harm.

    "There's really nothing I want out of the past except history." - Autoegocrat

    by rainmanjr on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 06:28:25 PM PDT

  •  34% have a positive view of the TP????? (0+ / 0-)

    Just 1% less than have a positive view of the Dem Party and 4% more than have a positive view of the Republican Party. Those are alarming numbers as to where a large chunk of our society is . .

  •  How much is media driven? (0+ / 0-)

    Every day NPR tells me what the republicans are thinking. I never hear the other side. Sometimes the environmental reports are balanced. The TV where most people watch either doesn't report or is very basis. I mean when you have people thinking if we allowed a ship from Iraq into the gulf to stop an oil spill there is something wrong. Obama is blamed for not acting fast enough on the spill but when the rig sank BP was telling us there was no leaking.

    How much pain have cost us the evils which have never happened. Thomas Jefferson

    by coffejoe on Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 07:20:49 PM PDT

  •  Bit$h (0+ / 0-)

    I'm a moderate Dem and all the left wants to do is bitch. Obama knows they aren't going anywhere. Hell, they don't even know what they want. They keep talking about being the base of the party. They are not the base and are a very small part of the Dem. party. They are to the Dems what the teabaggers are to the repubs. So, stop complaining. Get over yourselves.

  •  It's Obama's Epic Fail in his "response" (0+ / 0-)

    to the BP fuckup. Simple as that.

    •  except it's not (0+ / 0-)

      No Sign That Obama's Overall Job Approval Rating Has Been Significantly Affected"

      The trend data show a four-point increase in approval of Obama's handling of the oil spill between Gallup's June 5-6 poll and the June 19-20 poll. These results suggest a possibly slight benefit to Obama from his recent visits to the Gulf region, culminating in his nationally televised address from the Oval Office last Tuesday.

      There is less evidence that the oil spill has affected Obama's standing in the public's eye from a comparison of his weekly overall job approval average before the BP spill on April 20 with his average after the spill.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 05:44:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What?? I'll have what they're smoking. (0+ / 0-)

        Obama's "approvals" dropped like a rock during this BP fiasco. His total lack of a response is the reason.

        •  have what they are smoking, too (0+ / 0-)

          Obama's Ratings Little Affected by Recent Turmoil

          Since the beginning of this year, President Obama has signed a controversial health care measure, coped with a stubbornly high jobless rate, and struggled to manage the largest environmental disaster in the nation’s history. In that period, Obama’s overall job approval rating has moved from 49% to 48%.

          http://people-press.org/...

          As I said elsewhere, I don't write their copy. But both Gallup and Pew don't agree with you.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 12:31:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  meaining that... (0+ / 0-)

      it's not so simple.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Fri Jun 25, 2010 at 05:45:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The only polls I will trust are the (0+ / 0-)

    exit polls in November.

    President Obama has to keep a laser focus on the Economy and Jobs, we have to continue to see job growth.

    If a poll was taken right after President Obama fired  McCrystal, guess what, the ratings on his leadership would skyrocket.

    Take another poll in 2 weeks and by then they would have found something else to bitch about and voila, we have low ratings.

    In other words these polls at the moment are fickle and meaningless.  

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