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Summary:
Illinois has 19 representatives, 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans.  Vulnerable are
  IL-06 (R) esp. if Roskam runs for senate.
  IL-10 (R) which is now open
  IL-11 (D) where Halvorsen is a freshman in a swing district
Primary is done

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
and my previous diaries.

District: IL-01
Location Partly the south side of Chicago, partly suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 34
Representative Bobby Rush (D)
VoteView rank 50.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 86-14 over Antoine Members
2006 margin 84-16
2004 margin 85-15
Obama margin 87-13
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Ray Wardingley
Demographics More Blacks than any other district (65.3%), 13th most Democratic, per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe. Rush has just over $100K COH. No info on Wardingley

District: IL-02
Location South side of Chicago and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 36
Representative Jesse Jackson Jr (D)   Not confirmed
VoteView rank  14
First elected  1995
2008 margin 89-11 over Anthony Williams
2006 margin 85-12
2004 margin 88-12
Obama margin 90-10
Bush margin 2004 16-84
Current opponents  Isaac Hayes (no, not THE Isaac Hayes)
Demographics 4th most Blacks (62%), 13th most Democratic (tied with the IL-01)
Assessment Safe. Jackson has $400K COH, Hayes has little.

District: IL-03  
Location Southwestern Chicago  map
Cook PVI  D + 11
Representative Dan Lipinski (D)  
VoteView rank 192.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 73-21 over Michael Hawkins
2006 margin 77-23
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Michael Bendas
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Safe.  Lipinski has half a million COH, Bendas has $5. (and no sense)

District: IL-04  
Location Possibly the oddest shaped district in the USA (and that's saying something!) this one...looks like an ordinary district with a big piece missing in the middle.  It includes the Latino districts on the north side, wanders west, has a string-wide bit going south, and then includes the Latino districts on the south side. map.
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Luis Gutierrez (D)
VoteView rank 45
First elected  1992
2008 margin 81-11 over Daniel Cunningham
2006 margin 86-14
2004 margin 84-12
Obama margin 85-13
Bush margin 2004 21-79
Current opponents No Republican, but there is a Green candidate
Demographics 5th most Latinos (74.5%) (3 of the 4 higher are in TX), 5th fewest veterans (4.3%)
Assessment  Safe

District: IL-05  
Location North side of Chicago,  from the lake west to O'Hare  map
Cook PVI  D + 19
Representative Mike Quigley  
First elected  2009
VoteView rank NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 73-26
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents David Ratowitz (R) and a Green candidate
Demographics 23rd fewest veterans (6.7%)
Assessment Safe.  Quigley has a quarter million COH, Ratowitz has little.

District: IL-06
Location Western suburbs of Chicago   map
Cook PVI  Even
Representative Peter Roskam (R)
VoteView rank 381
First elected  2006
2008 margin 58-42 over Jill Morgenthaler
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Ben Lowe
Demographics 12th fewest people in poverty (4.3%), 30th highest median income ($63K)
Assessment This is almost a swing district, but Roskam now has over $700K COH, while Lowe has little.  Plus Roskam is now the incumbent.  Looks safe for Roskam.

District: IL-07  
Location Chicago's Loop and nearby map
Cook PVI D + 35
Representative Danny Davis (D)
VoteView rank 20.5
First elected  1996
2008 margin 85-15 over Steve Miller
2006 margin 87-13
2004 margin 86-14
Obama margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Mark Weiman
Demographics 16th most Blacks (61.6%), 20th most people in poverty (24%) (but median income is moderate - $40K)
Assessment Safe. Davis has $400K COH, no info on Weiman.

District: IL-08  
Location North of Chicago to the WI border, including Schaumburg map
Cook PVI  R + 1
Representative Melissa Bean (D)
VoteView rank 226
First elected  2004
2008 margin 60-40 over Steve Greenberg
2006 margin 51-44 (remainder "moderate" party)
2004 margin 52-48
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents Joe Walsh
Demographics 28th highest income ($63K)
Assessment After two close races, Bean won easily in 2008, doing even better than Obama. She has over $1 million COH, an established moderate record that suits this swing district.  Walsh has only $46K COH, and is a right winger.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe

District: IL-09  
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI D + 20
Representative Jan Schakowsky (D)
VoteView rank 23
First elected  1998
2008 margin 75-22 over Michael Younan
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin 76-24
Obama margin 72-26
Bush margin 2004 32-68
Current opponents Joel Pollak
Demographics 35th fewest veterans (8%), 37th most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (mostly 12.3% Asians)
Assessment Safe. Schakowsky has close to half a million COH, Pollak has little.

District: IL-10  
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago, along Lake Michigan map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Mark Kirk (R) Running for Senate
VoteView rank NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents Democrat Dan Seals; Republican Bob Dold.
Assessment Hard to say.  Each has roughly $400 K COH; I'd guess Seals has better name recognition from his previous runs. Dold is a businessman (he runs a pest control company), Seals is a former teacher and now a business consultant.  This will be hard fought
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup (for lack of a strong sense of what's going on)

District: IL-11  
Location Shaped like a T, with the middle of the T in Ottawa, the bottom in Bloomington, the eastern end in Kankakee, and the western end in rural IL map
Cook PVI  R + 1
Representative Debbie Halvorson (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 58-34 over Marty Ozinga
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Adam Kinzinger
Demographics 39th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks
Assessment Halvorsen has over $1.2 million COH, Kinzinger about $300K.  
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D.  Obama got some favorite son votes here; this is a swing district.  But Halvorson has more COH and the incumbency.

District: IL-12  
Location Southwestern IL, bordering MO and a tiny bit of KY, including Carbondale and East St. Louis map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Jerry Costello (D)
VoteView rank 189
First elected  1988
2008 margin 72-25 over Timmy Richardson
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents Teri Newman
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Costello has over $2 million COH, no info on Newman

District: IL-13  
Location Southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Judy Biggert (R)
VoteView rank 293
First elected  1998
2008 margin 54-44 over Scott Harper
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Scott Harper is running again.  
Demographics 9th wealthiest district (median income = $72K), 2nd fewest in poverty (2.9%)
Assessment Harper was 10 points behind in a Democratic year, with Obama's coattails.  I wish him luck, but right now, it doesn't look too hopeful.  Biggert has $750K or so COH, Harper about $175K.  Both have debt.

District: IL-14  
Location From the far western part of Chicagoland, west almost to the IA border in northern IL map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative  Bill Foster (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 228
First elected  2008
2008 margin 57-43 over Jim Oberweis
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents  Randy Hultgren
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment  Foster, a conservative Democrat, fits this district well.  He should be OK.  Foster has about $1.2 million COH, Hultgren about $100K.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D

District: IL-15  
Location Eastern central IL, bordering IN, centering on Urbana-Champaign map
Cook PVI  R + 6
Representative Tim Johnson (R)
VoteView rank 247
First elected  2000
2008 margin 64-36 over Steve Cox
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 59-41
Current opponents David Gill
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot, Gill has lost to Johnson at least twice.  Johnson has about $150K COH, Gill has little

District: IL-16  
Location Northwestern IL, bordering WI and IA, including Rockford map
Cook PVI  R + 2
Representative Don Manzullo (R)
VoteView rank 345
First elected  1992
2008 margin 61-36 over Robert Abboud
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents George Gaulrapp
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Long shot. Manzullo has about $350K COH, Gaulrapp has little.

District: IL-17  
Location A strange shaped district in southwestern IL, bordering IA and MO, including Moline and extending eastward almost to Springfield
map
Cook PVI  D + 3
Representative Phil Hare (D)
VoteView rank 151
First elected  2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Bobby Schilling
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Hare has about 3/4 million COH, Schilling about $100K

District: IL-18  
Location Shaped like a backward C, centering on Peoria in central IL map
Cook PVI  R + 6
Representative Aaron Schock (R)
VoteView rank NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 59-38 over Coleen Callahan
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Deirdre Hirner
Demographics 75th most Whites (90%)
Assessment Safe for Repubs.  Schock has about $450K COH, Hirner has little.

District: IL-19  
Location Southern IL, from suburbs of Springfield south  and east to the IN and KY border map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative John Shimkus (R)
VoteView rank 307
First elected  1996
2008 margin 64-33 over Dan Davis
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Tim Bagwell.
Demographics
Assessment Long shot.  Shimkus has almost $1.5 million COH, no info on Bagwell.

Originally posted to plf515 on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 05:25 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Congressional tips (17+ / 0-)

    and happy 4th!

    We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

    by plf515 on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 05:25:43 AM PDT

  •  Many thanks (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, geez53, BlueJessamine, emilysdad

    Excellent diary! Hotlisted for the future reference.

    Please vote Democratic in November. If the GOP wins we will all be forced backward another decade, who wants that?

    by Wary on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 05:38:30 AM PDT

  •  You favor Halvorsen? Who refused to have townhall (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, BlueJessamine

    meetings?  Her constituency was not pleased, to say the least.

    Her seat, and probably at least Foster's and maybe other close ones really pivot on the Governor's race.  Democrats have driven the state into the ground.  If enough people are fired up to come out to vote Republican for Brady, I think the close ones will go Repub too.  That's my gut feeling analysis, anyway.

    "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - G. Marx

    by Skeptical Bastard on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 06:05:11 AM PDT

    •  SOME of her constituents were not pleased. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Nova Land, Wary, plf515

      If I were a better artist I would have drawn a cartoon of a kid standing on the porch of a house with a club concealed behind his back, innocently asking the lady at the door "Can Debbie come out and play."  A lot of the constituents I saw responding to the complaint letters in the paper knew what was going on.

      She did have phone-in "meetings", which of course did nothing for the teabaggers wanting to get in her face and threaten her in person.

      Still, the rural areas are strongly republican.  We'll see if incumbency gets us anything.

      We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both. - Justice Louis D. Brandeis

      by dsteffen on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 07:28:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Phone Town halls are the BEST! (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Nova Land, dsteffen, plf515

        We can HEAR every question and EVERY ANSWER--one person does NOT get to dominate, we are NOT intimidated by those hatefilled people!

        Also itprevents having to go out, dress up, drive around finding a parking space--more people attend the phone town halls because of these factors, particularly we older folks!

        Please vote Democratic in November. If the GOP wins we will all be forced backward another decade, who wants that?

        by Wary on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 08:31:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I've lived in... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Nova Land, Wary, plf515

    both IUL-13 and IL-14 previously.

    I like Foster.

    It would be nice to defeat Biggert. If it could be done, it would happen through Bolingbrook, the most diverse city in the district.

    •  I've lived in Il-01 and Il-02 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Nova Land, Jennifer Clare, plf515

      I grew up there, which may account for my complete lack of understanding of the Republican mindset.

      Time to garden and kick Republican ass.

      by anastasia p on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 09:37:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I grew up in IL-13 and live here now (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515

        The Republican mindset here is simple: 'R' = Good White Christian; 'D' = Dangerous, Traitorous, Godless.

        Lots of money, lots of "education" that did not include instruction in critical thinking. It doesn't help that we Democrats have literally no bench of viable candidates in this district. But while the Will County (southern) portion of IL-13 is growing (and turning the District a little more Dem-friendly each cycle), the larger DuPage County portion remains rather stubbonly Republican, despite very impressive efforts on the part of a now very well organized DuPage County Democratic organization.

        IL-13, by the way, has never elected a Democrat. In fact, it used to be "represented" in Congress by Donald Rumsfeld. We'll see what happens after the next redistricting; if we can draw in more of the Will County and Southern Cook County voters, a Dem may stand a chance at some point. But for the time being, Dem candidates in this District are little more than sacrificial goats.

        On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord. --Barack Obama

        by Jennifer Clare on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 12:17:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Not much chance... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Nova Land, plf515, Spedwybabs

    ...of unseating my rep, Aaron Schock in IL18.  As I've said before, he's the GOP's next Golden Boy If He Doesn't Turn Out To Be Gay.  

    Not that there's anything wrong with that -- unless you aspire to be GOP's next Golden Boy.  

    My best bet would be to throw some support to Debbie Halvorsen.  She's not my rep but the IL11 boundary is only a quarter mile from my house, in that gerrymandered hangy-down part of the district, and they'll be re-districting someday -- or maybe pulling a rabbit out of that hat.  Who knows where I might end up?  

    I'm also only about five miles from IL15.  I haven't contributed any money to David Gill's campaign (yet), but I am his friend on Facebook...

    We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both. - Justice Louis D. Brandeis

    by dsteffen on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 07:21:47 AM PDT

  •  Ray Wardingley (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    aka Spanky the Clown. He's a recurrent GOP ballot filler for various Chicago area offices.    

    "Wake up Democrat"

    by ILDem on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 07:26:45 AM PDT

  •  You don't list Rep Shimkus' party ID (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Nova Land, plf515

    great work as always!

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 07:45:33 AM PDT

  •  OT: front page format (0+ / 0-)

    as of this morning the front page format columns out of line... portions of stories pasted from diaries on the front page in other words really messed up... has anyone else got front page format problem ( the rest of www is ok )

    Announcement: Jerry Brown willing to meet Meg Whitman 7/4 barbecue Atherton where Whitman lives; he'd be happy to invite a few nurses to join them.

    by anyname on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 08:16:00 AM PDT

  •  Check plf515 other states (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, emilysdad

    diaries like this, they are very helpful in understanding the political context of each state.

    Many thanks again.

    Please vote Democratic in November. If the GOP wins we will all be forced backward another decade, who wants that?

    by Wary on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 08:27:55 AM PDT

  •  just a few observations (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Nova Land, plf515

    il-15 David Gill is a hell of a candidate and in disclosure I will proudly say that I am doing some volunteer stuff on his campaign...it won't be easy but maybe if we can stay consistent in messaging and really make people realize how much johnson takes it for granted maybe just maybe ...

    il-17 stranded wind and i headed over there a few weeks ago for a phil hare event and i gotta tell you THIS guy is the real deal folks...funny, proudly progressive and wicked smart...when asked bout his vote on hcr he said not only does he not hide it...he's brags about it and his best quote is that people need to realize it's not about the G-D-P it's about the J-O-B... and next NN fundraiser? i have his tie with his signature...that's my new obsession...getting signed ties to auction off for NN (g)

    Support the BWIU and Shop the BWIUBS Store today!

    by Spedwybabs on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 09:57:18 AM PDT

    •  I wish you luck in IL-15 (0+ / 0-)

      at least maybe make Johnson work for it, and spend some.

      Good to know about Hare.

      We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

      by plf515 on Sun Jul 04, 2010 at 12:08:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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