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Happily, the Wrap emerged from the holiday weekend with all of its fingers and toes intact. As one might expect at the close of this holiday three-day weekend, political news is a touch sparse today.

That said, Rasmussen does some house-cleaning to provide us with a little polling data today (two polls, both favorable to the GOP). Terry Branstad's past might be catching up to him in Iowa, and Democrats get another in a series of disappointments in L'Affaire Alvin Greene.

All that, and a bit more, in the Monday edition of the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

AZ-Sen: McCain keeps nailing Hayworth on infomericals in tough new ad
This is a pretty decent shot, and it is (you guessed it!) good news (!) for John McCain. McCain is running a new ad using Hayworth's own words against him on the infomerical affair. Hayworth's ill-advised initial response bordered on "so what?", as you will recall. McCain's ad crew uses that flippancy, and in essence, shoves it down Hayworth's throat. The fun is nowhere near over yet.

MO-Sen: Obama headed to Show-Me State to stump for Senate candidate
The week after July 4th might be considered a holiday week in much of Political-land, but not for the President, who will head to the Midwest to make an appearance on the behalf of Missouri Senate candidate Robin Carnahan. Obama will be there on Thursday, to appear at a frontraiser fundraiser for Carnahan, the leading Democrat in the race to fill the open seat of retiring Republican Kit Bond.

NV-Sen: Could Arizona be Harry Reid's best friend?
An interesting analysis appeared over the weekend at the website for the Arizona Republic, one which implies that Harry Reid's objections to the Arizona anti-immigration law might have a strong political upside for the Senate Majority Leader. The logic: Latino voters are a large and growing segment of the Nevada electorate, and they might be more motivated to participate in this election if there is the belief that Reid is "on the side" of Latinos, many of whom are angered by the law. While there are a number of supporters of the law in Nevada, furthermore, it has to be assumed that those folks would not support Reid, in any event.

NC-Sen: Marshall reaps whirlwind of runoff victory
Democrats appear to be coalescing around the candidacy of Elaine Marshall, on the heels of her runoff victory two weeks ago over Cal Cunningham. Marshall's campaign is reporting having raised nearly $150K in just the two weeks since the runoff. Raising money quickly will be a high priority for Marshall, who had to expend a lot of her resources in the Democratic primary against Cunningham.

SC-Sen: Ketner remains on sidelines--won't make 2010 Indie bid
Democrats eager for an alternative to accidental nominee Alvin Greene are still left wanting, after receiving the news that Linda Ketner, who ran a strong campaign for the House in 2008, had opted against running for the Senate as an Independent. This is the second recruiting effort for Ketner that fell short, as many Democrats were hoping she'd run for the House seat she sought in 2008 (SC-01) when it became open this year upon the retirement of Henry Brown.

THE U.S. HOUSE

KY-06: GOP challenger has a country-club problem
If much-hyped Bluegrass State Republican contender Andy Barr can be grateful for the bad news that befell his campaign today, he can take solace that it occurred during a holiday weekend. Barr is an active member of a Lexington-area country club, one that did not accept its first black member until November of 2009. While the 6th does not have an enormous black population (roughly 9%, according to the Almanac of American Politics), such information is not likely to be helpful for the Republican's campaign. Especially, as TPMDC writer Evan McMorris-Santoro notes, since Barr ducked questions earlier in the campaign about his views on Rand Paul's criticisms of the 1964 Civil Rights Act.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

CA-Gov: LA Times explores resource disparity in Gov Race
This was bound to happen, and there are some grains of fair criticism to be found within: Seema Mehta of the Los Angeles Times explores the contrasting electoral strategies of the Whitman and Brown gubernatorial campaigns. By trying to conserve his resources, Mehta points out that there is a concern that Brown could face the same problems that confounded the Poizner campaign during the GOP primary. The problem, of course, is that Whitman is not going to be outspent, which raises the question--how do you beat a gazillionaire with unlimited resources?

IA-Gov: Did Branstad mix business with (campaign) pleasure as Gov?
An interesting article before the weekend from the good folks at Bleeding Heartland underscores the perils in this upcoming campaign for former four-term Governor Terry Branstad as he seeks his old job. The Culver campaign released documents late last week which they say proved that Terry Branstad had taxpayer-funded staff working on political and campaign operations out of the Governor's office. While this, in itself, is not a game-changing allegation, it reminds us that Branstad has sixteen years in office to mine. As desmoinesdem points out in the piece at Bleeding Heartland, that could prove to be a very big deal before November rolls around.

NE-Gov: Is Heineman 2010 race really about Heineman 2012?
If the Democrats cannot find a suitable opponent for Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman, in the wake of Mark Lakers' withdrawal as the Democratic nominee, the guy who might be most disappointed will be none other than...Dave Heineman. That's because some folks are wondering if Heineman's 2010 gubernatorial campaign is merely a dry run for a proposed 2012 Senate race against Democratic incumbent Ben Nelson. Heineman's focus last week on President Obama's health reform plans seemed to bolster that assumption.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

Rasmussen doesn't break any new ground today, putting out two polls which were conducted before the Independence Day holiday. Both polls looked at gubernatorial races, and both of them were (surprise!) favorable to the Republican candidates in the field.

OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 47%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 40%
PA-Gov: Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 39%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 07:30 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  The news about Branstad is old news and won't (0+ / 0-)

    likely change the outcome.  Culver is just an awful governor and has made some really boneheaded things himself.  As much as I'd like a Dem in the statehouse, Chet is not helping himself at all and needs to get some way better advisors.

    "Early to bed and early to rise makes a man healthy, wealthy and wise." B. Franklin - "So that's what I'm doing wrong."

    by deweysmom on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 07:34:20 PM PDT

    •  we don't know what else they've found (0+ / 0-)

      They've been going through 1,000 boxes of material. I think we can assume they wouldn't publicize the most devastating stuff before the 4th of July.

      Culver has made a lot of mistakes, I will grant you that. Personally, I think his overall record compares favorably to Vilsack's, but I know most Iowa Democrats disagree with me.

      Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

      by desmoinesdem on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 09:38:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm sure (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, pademocrat, KingofSpades

    Ohiobama will be chortling about that Ohio poll, but it's really an off-the-charts outlier and extremely dubious.

    De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

    by anastasia p on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 07:34:39 PM PDT

  •  Jerry Brown will be fine (5+ / 0-)

    If Meg Whitman is spending all that money and is still behind, more ads will likely not help. Obviously this doesn't mean to be complacent, but I'd still put my money on Brown.

    People panic too much on this site.

    by thematt523 on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 07:38:09 PM PDT

    •  I'm vacationing in CA (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, emilysdad

      And seeing all of her ads, positive and negative, so frequently makes me want to vomit.  It's annoying as hell and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

      Cold hearted orb/That rules the night/Removes the colours From our sight/Red is gray and/Yellow white/But we decide/Which is right/And/Which is an Illusion

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 07:43:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  As A Native Cali Resident, Let Me Assure You... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pademocrat, scamperdo, KingofSpades

        They are every bit as annoying as you think they are.

        And if you think they are spoiling your vacation a bit, think of how much you'd want to tear into the sofa cushions being well into the fifth MONTH of that drivel.

        "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
        Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
        Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

        by Steve Singiser on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 08:24:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  And Brown's campaign isn't poor. (0+ / 0-)

      It has in excess of 20 million bucks on hand.

      Cold hearted orb/That rules the night/Removes the colours From our sight/Red is gray and/Yellow white/But we decide/Which is right/And/Which is an Illusion

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 07:44:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think he's playing possum. (4+ / 0-)

      I think he's going to let Whitman outspend him like crazy and then make the case that she's trying to buy the election.  I know most folks get annoyed as hell in the days leading to an election with all the ads and phone bank calls.  If Whitman plans to run a "final days" campaign for the next four months foks are going to be bloody sick of her.  

      Brown will go all folksy, having folks remember a time when politics wasn't about spending $150M+ of their own personal wealth, but was about ideas.  How Whitman can afford to self-fund because she spent her life working to personal gratification, whereas Brown was a politician because he thought he could make a difference then and he thinks he could make a difference now.  

      Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

      by Jonze on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 07:51:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's A Possibility, Sure... (0+ / 0-)

        But the risk you run is that she will successfully define him before he can define himself. People who think he is a household name in California forget that he was Governor nearly thirty years ago. Hell, I was in the 3rd grade when he left office, and I am pushing 40.

        I think he could spend some of that $20 mil he is holding onto defining her as someone buying the office and also make the case for his candidacy. Not all of it, mind you, but some of it.

        "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
        Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
        Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

        by Steve Singiser on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 08:26:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Every dollar that Brown spends from now on (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          is going to be worth far more than every dollar that Whitman spends.  He doesn't have to match her dollar for dollar he just needs enough.  I don't know how much that is but it is less than $100 million.  Hopefully, the Brown campaign will be much smarter than the Whitman campaign and that will also multiply the strength of his dollars spent to hers.

          It's just a name like the Death Zone or the Zone of No Return.All the zones have names like that in the Galaxy of Terror. H.J.F.

          by msstaley on Tue Jul 06, 2010 at 12:18:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Hayworth is finished. (5+ / 0-)

    He's not going to recover from the "So what, caveat emptor - let the buyer beware" response.  No chance.  We just have to hope he goes nuclear against McCain and dirties him up enough that Glassman can run a positive campaign and have a real chance.  

    Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

    by Jonze on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 07:46:30 PM PDT

  •  Is "frontraiser" a real word? (0+ / 0-)
    •  Heh...that would be a "no".... (0+ / 0-)

      It's what happens when you try to put "fundraiser" and "frontrunner" in the same sentence...

      :)

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 08:21:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I gueSs Strickland must be poison. Figures. nt (0+ / 0-)

    "They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

    by JugOPunch on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 07:51:44 PM PDT

    •  Wait until a real pollster confirms that... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JugOPunch

      n/t

      DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
      LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

      by LordMike on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 07:53:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  yeah (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, JugOPunch, pademocrat

      no other pollster has Kasich running away with it. Almost all polls are within the margin of error or with a small Strickland lead.

      People panic too much on this site.

      by thematt523 on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 07:56:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was being Facetious. nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      "They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

      by JugOPunch on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 08:07:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No, Strickland is not "poison" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      His opponent, John Kasich, is rapidly becoming toxic however, no matyer what Rasmussen claims to have found. Kasich hasn't come up with a solid proposal since he started campaigning. His latest is that while putting the entire blame on Strickland's shoulders for not ficing two decades of job loss, he says he's going to cvome in, fix the state and leave after a single term — probably to either run for president or return to being a highly paid Fox News commentator. But he has no plans whatsoever for doing this, and even the state's conservative media has taken him to task for it.\

      Plus Strickland has more money and is already out in front, defining Kasich.

      De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

      by anastasia p on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 09:41:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Could the Dems, pretty please, segue Hayworth's (0+ / 0-)

    caveat emptor to the entire Republican party and then add, a la McCain, "voter beware"?

    "It's a sight to see." Pres. Obama - Dec 8/09 and Jan 16/10

    by Observerinvancouver on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 08:26:45 PM PDT

  •  There *is* an alternative in South Carolina... (0+ / 0-)
    Democrats eager for an alternative to accidental nominee Alvin Greene are still left wanting,

    Now that Ketner's taken a pass, maybe there'll be some love for Tom Clements.

  •  thanks for the link (0+ / 0-)

    I am slowly working my way through the documents in the Branstad files. For instance, Mathiasen C-51, a detailed strategy memo on the 1984 Iowa legislative races. It's just ridiculous that someone on the state payroll was working on this stuff.

    Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

    by desmoinesdem on Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 09:37:13 PM PDT

  •  Reid is blessed (0+ / 0-)

    Can you imagine being a Nevada politician and being able to run against Jan Brewer and Sharon Angle?  damn. That's freakin lucky.  If he doesnt pull 50%, it's pretty damn sad commentary.

    "A lie isn't a side of a story. It's just a lie." The Wire

    by glutz78 on Tue Jul 06, 2010 at 05:51:12 AM PDT

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