Stochastic Democracy, in collaboration Professor Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, have launched a new Election Forecasting System for House, Senate, and Generic tracking.
See more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com
*****Cross-posted at StochasticDemocracy.com*****
Stochastic Democracy estimates public opinion by pooling together polls while detecting and accounting for systemic biases certain pollsters have for one candidate or another.
When few polls are available, forecasts are augmented with estimates based on "fundamentals" such as demographic make-up, past partisanship, and candidate incumbency.
We've built, in collaboration with Pollster.com and Princeton University, the largest database of District and Senate polls in the country, and are in the progress of expanding to other races. Our goal is to use all possible information in order to provide the most accurate forecasts for the 2010 election cycle.
We've made our polls, forecasts, and methodology public, so check it out!
This is preliminary. Aspects of the model and formatting are likely to change in the coming weeks, so feedback would be greatly appreciated.
Some charts:
Senate map colored by democratic vote share, green indicates independents, states without elections are colored black.
Map colored by expected percentage of state delegation that will be Democratic.
*****Cross-posted at StochasticDemocracy.com*****