Skip to main content

As the 2010 elections approach this fall and as the Tea Party and Sarah Palin continue to take on Republican incumbents, here are a few numbers to ponder:

  • 41 - number of sitting GOP Senators
  • 34 - number of sitting GOP Senators who aren't retiring this year
  • 24 - number of sitting GOP Senators who don't have a re-election to worry about this year

These are humiliating numbers for Senate Republicans at a time when they don't have a heck of a lot of accomplishments or solutions to run on.

In 2006 the GOP lost 6 Senate seats, in 2008 they lost 8 seats, and in 2010 they may be ready to hang the Mission Accomplished banner before Election Day, but they could actually lose a handful more depending on which way the wave crashes on November 2.

I don't care what anybody says, this is a great time to be a Democrat.

Just look at what's left of the GOP caucus ...


Here are the 34 members of the GOP Senate caucus who aren't currently retiring, including year of their next election and the year that they first joined the Senate. 2010 races highlighted in bold.

Non-retiring GOP incumbents

  • ['12] Dick Lugar, IN, 1977
  • ['12] Orrin Hatch, UT, 1977
  • ['14] Thad Cochran, MS, 1979
  • ['10] Chuck Grassley, IA, 1981
  • ['14] Mitch McConnell, KY, 1985
  • ['10] Richard Shelby, AL, 1987
  • ['10] John McCain, AZ, 1987
  • ['12] Kay Bailey Hutchison, TX, 1993
  • ['12] Jon Kyl, AZ, 1995
  • ['12] Olympia Snowe, ME, 1995
  • ['14] Jim Inhofe, OK, 1995
  • ['14] Jeff Sessions, AL, 1997
  • ['14] Pat Roberts, KS, 1997
  • ['14] Susan Collins, ME, 1997
  • ['14] Mike Enzi, WY, 1997
  • ['10] Mike Crapo, ID, 1999
  • ['12] John Ensign, NV, 2001
  • ['10] Lisa Murkowski, AK, 2002
  • ['14] Saxby Chambliss, GA, 2003
  • ['14] Lindsey Graham, SC, 2003
  • ['14] Lamar Alexander, TN, 2003
  • ['14] John Cornyn, TX, 2003
  • ['10] Johnny Isakson, GA, 2005
  • ['10] David Vitter, LA, 2005
  • ['10] Richard Burr, NC, 2005
  • ['10] Tom Coburn, OK, 2005
  • ['10] Jim DeMint, SC, 2005
  • ['10] John Thune, SD, 2005*
  • ['12] Roger Wicker, MS, 2007
  • ['12] Bob Corker, TN, 2007
  • ['12] John Barrasso, WY, 2007
  • ['14] Jim Risch, ID, 2009
  • ['14] Mike Johanns, NE, 2009
  • ['12] Scott Brown, MA, 2010


*Thune is the only GOP Senate incumbent running unopposed in 2010.

And here are the 8 members of the GOP caucus that are retiring this year (counting Specter since he started this congressional session as a Republican):

2010 GOP retirements

  • Arlen Specter, PA, 1981 (switched parties, then lost primary)
  • Kit Bond, MO, 1987 (retiring)
  • Judd Gregg, NH, 1993 (retiring)
  • Bob Bennett, UT, 1993 (lost primary)
  • Sam Brownback, KS, 1996 (running for governor)
  • Jim Bunning, KY, 1999 (retiring)
  • George Voinovich, OH, 1999 (retiring)
  • George LeMieux, FL, 2009 (seat warmer)

TOTAL: 8, including Specter

By contrast: Democrats have 52 non-retiring incumbents and only 6 retirements (not counting Specter, since he started this congressional session as a Republican.)



Consider these coming election years that quickly balloon from 1:1 odds to 2:1 odds:

Senate seats up for election in 2010: DEMS 19, GOP 18
Senate seats up for election in 2012: DEMS 23, GOP 10
Senate seats up for election in 2014: DEMS 20, GOP 13

Yet, even in 2012 when Democrats will have more than twice as many Senate seats on the ballot as Republicans, most of our seats are from Obama-friendly states and it's a year in which Obama will be back at the top of the ballot.

Check it out: In 2012, only 5 of the 23 DEM seats up are from states that Obama lost (MO, MT, NE, ND, and WV), while 4 of the 10 GOP seats up are from states that Obama won (MA, NV, ME, and IN.)

So even in 2012, we don't have to expect losses. It's up to us to get out the vote and keep our politicians on point.

Food for thought, folks!

Vote, fight, gain!

Originally posted to horizontalrule on Tue Jul 20, 2010 at 07:00 AM PDT.


Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site