Skip to main content

Guess who just took the lead in North Carolina?

Elaine Marshall..........37%
Richard Burr..............35%

...this was conducted by Lake Research, one of the best in the business. From their report:

The horserace is ominous for Burr. A month after her impressive win in the Democratic runoff, Marshall holds a slight lead with 37% compared to 35% for Burr. Libertarian candidate Mike Beitler takes 5% support and 23% of voters are undecided.

I'm live from Netroots Nation where Elaine will be tomorrow, but this is some of the biggest buzz on the ground here in Vegas. I didn't have enough time to write up a full post, but the long and short of it is that North Carolina voters have abandoned Senator Burr citing his incompetence and laziness as a Senator.

The full memo is below the fold.

Burr is the MOST vulnerable Republican in the country, and we have a chance to replace him with a strong leader like Elaine Marshall. But we can't do it without all of you -- so please chip in a few bucks today!

Thanks,

Mike.

To: Interested Parties
From: Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri
Re: Polling in the North Carolina Senate Race
Date: July 22, 2010

A recent Lake Research Partners  survey of likely voters in this year’s general election shows incumbent Republican Richard Burr very weak and extremely vulnerable to defeat.  Barely a third of voters view him favorably or think he is doing an excellent or good job, and only one in four are committed to reelecting him.  In short, he is the most vulnerable incumbent Republican Senator in the country and this seat represents a prime pickup opportunity as Democrats seek to hold control of the Senate.  Elaine Marshall is in a strong position to defeat Burr if she has the funds to competitively communicate her message.

The horserace is ominous for Burr.  A month after her impressive win in the Democratic runoff, Marshall holds a slight lead with 37% compared to 35% for Burr.  Libertarian candidate Mike Beitler takes 5% support and 23% of voters are undecided.  

Voters have abandoned Burr and he trails in the ballot for these reasons:

• Forty-three percent of voters hold a personally unfavorable view of Senator Burr, compared to just 34% who view him favorably; and voter intensity tips toward the very unfavorable (25%) rather than the very favorable (just 11%).

• Senator Burr’s job performance ratings suffer.  A whopping majority of 58% of voters believe he is doing a just fair or poor job.  Only 25% believe he is doing an excellent or good job.  In fact, five times as many voters (30%) believe he is doing a poor job as believe he is doing an excellent job (just 6%).

• Only a quarter of voters (25%) say they will definitely vote to reelect Senator Burr, leaving 75% of voters who will definitely vote to replace him (31%), or consider someone else or do not know (44%).

• The political environment is horrible for Senator Burr and he will have a difficult time separating himself from the disappointment voters have with Washington.  Seventy-two percent of voters describe their feelings about the way things are going in the country as “concerned”, “frustrated”, or “angry”.  As the previous data indicate, voters see Burr as remarkably symbolic of their disappointment.

• Furthermore, on the issues voters care about the most, Senator Burr’s job performance is lacking.  Majorities of voters believe he is doing a just fair or poor job on the economy and jobs, regulating Wall Street and big banks, Social Security and retirement security, and the deficit.  

In sum, Senator Burr is in deep trouble.  Only a quarter of voters are willing to defend him while the plurality dislikes him and the majority believes he is doing a just fair or poor job.  

In contrast to Senator Burr, Marshall carries little of the baggage that he has to endure.  In a year when voters are frustrated with Washington, Marshall has credibility as an agent for change.  She has a record in stark contrast to Burr, recovering money from Wall Street, protecting seniors from scam artists, and fighting for women.  She is well prepared to launch an effective general election campaign.  Marshall can win this race and flip this seat for Democrats if she has the resources to be competitive.

 Methods: Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey, which was conducted by phone using professional interviewers.  The survey was conducted among 600 registered voters in North Carolina with past participation in similar elections and who say they are likely to vote this November.  The survey was conducted July 15-19, 2010. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4 percentage points.

Full disclosure: Lake Research conducted this poll for the campaign.

Originally posted to Mike Nellis on Thu Jul 22, 2010 at 03:16 PM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Louise, JekyllnHyde, fladem, pronin2, Donna Z, Terri, tmo, TXdem, dwellscho, jec, PLS, LeislerNYC, Odysseus, teacherken, roonie, El Zmuenga, askew, TrueBlueMajority, jethropalerobber, Emerson, Wintermute, Andrew C White, kpardue, Beet, eeff, Mnemosyne, YoungDem05, polecat, frisco, marge, busternjake, Justina, bronte17, jn2375, 88kathy, Kevinole, elveta, understandinglife, ask, bhouston79, mkfarkus, barath, puck nc, Miss Blue, Cedwyn, Alna Dem, wader, revsue, Texknight, SneakySnu, dejavu, Getreal1246, psnyder, danthrax, missliberties, brainwave, Lawrence, grannyhelen, ccr4nine, jaywillie, wdrath, GN1927, AbsurdEyes, lcrp, Democratic Hawk, zdefender, KellyB, WisVoter, tomjones, JayDean, CanYouBeAngryAndStillDream, Mosquito Pilot, lyvwyr101, rickeagle, snowbird42, rmx2630, bay of arizona, Gowrie Gal, maybeeso in michigan, historys mysteries, radarlady, Ckntfld, jarneys dad, PBen, kefauver, ajsuited, SoCalLiberal, paj1, Laurence Lewis, goldrick, Viceroy, majcmb1, LennyLiberal, eastvan, SJerseyIndy, quaoar, Wufacta, peteri2, bluemanredtex, hilltopper, bmaples, kaliope, Isara, AnotherMassachusettsLiberal, nyseer, neroden, serrano, benny05, Alan Arizona, kathny, noweasels, reddbierd, MadGeorgiaDem, L Boom, sierrartist, tarheelblue, 417els, ferallike, BlueInARedState, Ky DEM, profundo, arlene, fou, Hobbitfoot, TalkieToaster, shrike, global citizen, A Siegel, nonnie9999, Bush Bites, real world chick, plf515, bleeding heart, Preston S, el cid, doinaheckuvanutjob, Charles Chamberlain, Articulating Arm, downwithtyranny, kurt, liberalpercy, Shullat, bstotts, Granny Doc, tegrat, fiver, Drama Queen, bear83, pgm 01, Loudoun County Dem, tgypsy, momoaizo, atlliberal, suedanim, FishOutofWater, yowsta, noofsh, greenchiledem, deepeco, sfbob, aliasalias, kingyouth, Orange County Liberal, vbdietz, mp, SeaTurtle, millwood, pioneer111, yella dawg, number six, M Sullivan, JML9999, BasharH, sable, wblynch, oxon, Terra Mystica, roycej, TomP, Empower Ink, Cjagmoore, New Frontier, MKinTN, mconvente, condorcet, railsplitter, ScottyUrb, bythesea, elwior, skohayes, Cat Servant, CDH in Brooklyn, rssrai, pamelabrown, left my heart, bluesheep, MsWings, Jeff Y, mofembot, sam storm, petulans, huntergeo, luckylizard, scharrison, A Man Called Gloom, SolarMom, loftT, RNinOR, ChrisG7, Michael James, Partisan Progressive, velvet blasphemy, tr GW, DefendOurConstitution, elziax, MKSinSA, asym, soms, jazzence, Corneliusmingus, allep10, The BBQ Chicken Madness, IreGyre, nomadamon, sherijr, nancat357, Dragon5616, Tricky, lompe, Jonathon Cumberland, seesmithrun, marabout40, drache, TFinSF, breathe67, brunoboy, Susan Grigsby, blueyescryinintherain, amk for obama, wren400, BludevlsAdvocate, shenderson, samanthab, elginblt, HartfordTycoon, Mariken, ClearBuzz, Egalitare, jawboneblues, horizontalrule, Funkygal, papermoon, nirbama, farbuska, Paul Delehanty, BlueFranco, cocinero, science nerd, not4morewars, Jake Goad, BrowniesAreGood, gobears2000, The Bohemian Rebel, yellow cosmic seed, cultjake, Wilma Rudolph, bgblcklab1, sowsearsoup, near mrs, AmericanIdeal, Nebraska Guru, Word Alchemy, Haf2Read, Cinnamon Rollover, BarackStarObama, gokinsmen, CKendall, LSmith, MRA NY, zapus, cassandra123, randomfacts, Dbug, Curiosity, SteelerGrrl, Nightshade Q, Reliefpitcher, Gay Whore, Cyndiannp, ParkRanger, AgentOfProgress, Rejoinder, Dom9000, YaNevaNo, True Blue Vet, ridemybike, gnostradamus, Liberalindependent28, HamptonRoadsProgressive, RhodaA, Elaine Marshall, APA Guy, We Won, charliehall2, James Renruojos, delmardougster, Eric Nelson, Travis Crayton, Sandi Behrns, ANY THING TOO ADD, violetnewstead, write4change65, Crikes a Crocus

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site