OK has 5 representatives: 1 D, 4 R, primary done, runoff 8/24
OR has 5 representatives: 4 D, 1 R, primary done
Possibly vulnerable:
OR-01 (D)
OR-05 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
and my previous diaries.
District: OK-01
Location Shaped like a key standing on end, centered on Tulsa in northeast OK, a tiny bit of border with KS map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative John Sullivan (R)
VoteView 401
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-34 over Georgianna Oliver
2006 margin 64-31
2004 margin 60-38
Obama margin 34-66
Bush margin 2004 35-65
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment No opponent
District: OK-02
Location Eastern OK, bordering MO and AR map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Dan Boren (D)
VoteView 225
First elected 2004
2008 margin 70-30 over Raymond Wickson
2006 margin 73-27
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 34-66
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Either David Edmonds or Charles Thompson
Demographics 9th most rural (64.4%), 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 11th most nonWhite, nonBlack, NonLatino (mostly 16.8% American Indian)
Assessment Boren isn't exactly a progressive (UNDERSTATEMENT) but he did 36 points better than Obama. He seems safe.
Boren has $1.4 million COH, the Repubs have little.
District: OK-03
Location The panhandle of OK, and east to Oklahoma City suburbs, borders TX, NM, CO, and KS map
Cook PVI R + 24
Representative Frank Lucas (R)
VoteView 315
First elected 1994
2008 margin 70-24 over Frankie Robbins
2006 margin 67-33
2004 margin 82-18 (vs. minor party)
Obama margin 27-73
Bush margin 2004 72-28
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 54th most rural (49.3%), 53rd lowest income (median = $32K)
Assessment No opponent
District: OK-04
Location Southwestern OK, bordering TX, including suburbs of Oklahoma City map
Cook PVI R + 18
Representative Tom Cole (R)
VoteView 330
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-29 over Blake Cummings
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 78-22 (against minor party)
Obama margin 34-66
Bush margin 2004 59-41
Current opponents No Democrats
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment No opponent
District: OK-05
Location Oklahoma City and some points southeast of there map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Mary Fallin (R) Retiring to run for Governor
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 41-59
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents On the Republican side, Jim Lankford and Kevin Calvey are in a runoff to face the Democrat Billy Coyle
Demographics 78th lowest income (median = $34K)
Assessment Safe for whichever Repub wins. Calvey has $326K COH, Lankford about $90K, Coyle about $40K
District: OR-01
Location Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative David Wu (D)
VoteView 132.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin 73% against several minor party candidates
2006 margin 63-34
2004 margin 58-38
Obama margin 61-36
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents Rob Corneilles
Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)
Assessment Safe. Wu has $600K, Corneilles has and impressive $250K, but this is a very Democratic district
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe
District: OR-02
Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Greg Walden (R)
VoteView 280
First elected 1998
2008 margin 70-26 over Noah Lemas
2006 margin 67-30
2004 margin 72-26
Obama margin 43-54
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents Joyce Segers
Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Walden has $1 million COH, Segers has little.
District: OR-03
Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood. map
Cook PVI D + 19
Representative Earl Blumenauer (D)
VoteView 54
First elected 1996
2008 margin 75-25 over Delia Lopez
2006 margin 73-23
2004 margin 71-24
Obama margin 71-26
Bush margin 2004 33-67
Current opponents Delia Lopez
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Blumenauer has $400K COH, Lopez less than $100K, and that's self-financed.
District: OR-04
Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Peter DeFazio (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 1986
2008 margin 83% against several minor party candidates
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 61-38
Obama margin 54-43
Bush margin 2004 49-49
Current opponents Art Robinson
Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)
Assessment Safe. DeFazio has $750K COH, Robinson about $90K
District: OR-05
Location A T-shaped district in northwestern OR. map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Kurt Schrader (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 55-38 over Mike Erickson
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-43
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents Scott Brunn
Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)
Assessment Winning by 17 in your first race looks good; probably safe. Schrader has nearly $1 million, Brunn about $175K.
SSP rating Likely D
My rating: Likely D