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OK has  5 representatives:  1 D, 4 R, primary done, runoff 8/24
OR has  5 representatives:  4 D, 1 R, primary done

Possibly vulnerable:
OR-01 (D)
OR-05 (D)

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
and my previous diaries.

District: OK-01
Location  Shaped like a key standing on end, centered on Tulsa in northeast OK, a tiny bit of border with KS map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative John Sullivan (R)
VoteView 401
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-34 over Georgianna Oliver
2006 margin 64-31
2004 margin 60-38
Obama margin 34-66
Bush margin 2004 35-65
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment No opponent

District: OK-02
Location Eastern OK, bordering MO and AR map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Dan Boren (D)
VoteView 225
First elected 2004
2008 margin 70-30 over Raymond Wickson
2006 margin 73-27
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 34-66
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Either David Edmonds or Charles Thompson
Demographics 9th most rural (64.4%), 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 11th most nonWhite, nonBlack, NonLatino (mostly 16.8% American Indian)
Assessment Boren isn't exactly a progressive (UNDERSTATEMENT) but he did 36 points better than Obama.  He seems safe.
Boren has $1.4 million COH, the Repubs have little.

District: OK-03
Location The panhandle of OK, and east to Oklahoma City suburbs, borders TX, NM, CO, and KS map
Cook PVI R + 24
Representative Frank Lucas (R)
VoteView 315
First elected 1994
2008 margin 70-24 over Frankie Robbins
2006 margin 67-33
2004 margin 82-18 (vs. minor party)
Obama margin 27-73
Bush margin 2004 72-28
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 54th most rural (49.3%), 53rd lowest income (median = $32K)
Assessment No opponent

District: OK-04
Location Southwestern OK, bordering TX, including suburbs of Oklahoma City map
Cook PVI R + 18
Representative Tom Cole (R)
VoteView 330
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-29 over Blake Cummings
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 78-22 (against minor party)
Obama margin 34-66
Bush margin 2004 59-41
Current opponents No Democrats
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment No opponent

District: OK-05
Location Oklahoma City and some points southeast of there map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Mary Fallin (R) Retiring to run for Governor
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 41-59
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents On the Republican side, Jim Lankford and Kevin Calvey are in a runoff to face the Democrat Billy Coyle
Demographics 78th lowest income (median = $34K)
Assessment Safe for whichever Repub wins.  Calvey has $326K COH, Lankford about $90K, Coyle about $40K

District: OR-01
Location  Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs  map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative David Wu (D)
VoteView 132.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin 73% against several minor party candidates
2006 margin 63-34
2004 margin 58-38
Obama margin 61-36
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents Rob Corneilles
Demographics  36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)
Assessment Safe. Wu has $600K, Corneilles has and impressive $250K, but this is a very Democratic district
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe

District: OR-02
Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA  map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Greg Walden (R)
VoteView 280
First elected 1998
2008 margin 70-26 over Noah Lemas
2006 margin 67-30
2004 margin 72-26
Obama margin 43-54
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents Joyce Segers
Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans.  Walden has $1 million COH, Segers has little.

District: OR-03
Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood.  map
Cook PVI D + 19
Representative Earl Blumenauer (D)
VoteView 54
First elected 1996
2008 margin 75-25 over Delia Lopez
2006 margin 73-23
2004 margin 71-24
Obama margin 71-26
Bush margin 2004 33-67
Current opponents Delia Lopez
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Blumenauer has $400K COH, Lopez less than $100K, and that's self-financed.

District: OR-04
Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene  map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Peter DeFazio (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 1986
2008 margin 83% against several minor party candidates
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 61-38
Obama margin 54-43
Bush margin 2004 49-49
Current opponents Art Robinson
Demographics   11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)
Assessment Safe.  DeFazio has $750K COH, Robinson about $90K

District: OR-05
Location  A T-shaped district in northwestern OR.  map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Kurt Schrader (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 55-38 over Mike Erickson
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-43
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents Scott Brunn
Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)
Assessment Winning by 17 in your first race looks good; probably safe. Schrader has nearly $1 million, Brunn about $175K.
SSP rating Likely D
My rating: Likely D

Originally posted to plf515 on Thu Jul 29, 2010 at 02:53 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Congressional tips n/t (14+ / 0-)

    We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

    by plf515 on Thu Jul 29, 2010 at 02:53:18 AM PDT

  •  Is this a series? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, BlueJessamine, JayinPortland

    Are you trying to cover all the states? It's a good compilation of information. I hope you'll cover Kansas after the primary (Aug 3).

    I was an Oregon voter for 20 years and I have to say I sure miss having representation that votes my way pretty much all the time and is very environmentally conscious.

    But I'm in it for the long haul and am trying to do my part to make Kansas go from red to purple to blue.

    There is no more important struggle for American democracy than ensuring a diverse, independent and free media. - Bill Moyers

    by StepLeftStepForward on Thu Jul 29, 2010 at 03:40:04 AM PDT

    •  Yes it's a series (4+ / 0-)

      I'm going in alphabetical order. If you search for articles by me that contain "congress" you'll see them all.

      I covered Kansas back on July 5, but I may have another go at the key races in all the states before November

      We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

      by plf515 on Thu Jul 29, 2010 at 03:44:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Great project. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515, BlueJessamine, JayinPortland

        The really important races in Kansas are governor (Brownback is running, and he's been losing ground lately :) and Sec of State, where Kris Kobach, the racist co-author of the AZ law is running. Those two must be defeated.

        I vote in KS-02, where we have horror of horrors, do-nothing Gingrich-endorsed Jenkins. There are 3 Dems on the primary ballot. I'm hoping for Cheryl Hudspeth but I'm afraid her campaign isn't so well-organized or funded (btw, her motto: 100% corporate-free!) so that concerns me. I hear people are not so happy with Jenkins, and if there were a strong opponent with a good campaign (Boyda's downfall in 2008), we may have a chance. I am very leery of Steve Teavis in this race - I think he's a huckster; and Thomas Koch doesn't seem to have a chance at all. We shall see what happens on Wednesday.

        KS-03 - I think Stephene Moore has a good chance. But then again, what do I know?

        Anyway, thanks for the series. It's a lot of work, I'm sure.

        There is no more important struggle for American democracy than ensuring a diverse, independent and free media. - Bill Moyers

        by StepLeftStepForward on Thu Jul 29, 2010 at 04:07:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Wow. All those districts in OK (5+ / 0-)

    with no Democratic opponents . . . looks like Tim Kaine's 50 seat strategy is really working! :(   Just what does he do to earn his salary, anyway?  I know he announced a new internet commercial, but really, that's it???

    Oklahoma doesn't have to threaten to secede from the Union b/c of healthcare reform and the takeover of the country by commie/socialist/Islamofascists -- they already act like a third world country, with dear leaders Tom Coburn (of the C Street Family ilk) and James Inhofe (of the Club for Crazies).

  •  It's gonna be interesting... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueoregon, BlueJessamine

    ...to see what happens if we (OR) get a 6th CD in the next redistricting.

    I'm in Portland, OR-03... yeah, the only question here is whether Earl Blumenauer will break 80% this year.  Heh.

    As for OR-05, Kurt Schrader is a good fit (he's a small organic farmer, former State Senator, and relatively conservative but not crazy) for the district, and he should hold that seat as long as he wants it.  He ain't gonna win with 2008-level margins (that race was a mess for Erickson and the R's, to say the very least), but 7-8 points a year isn't a bad bet.  Especially considering the dismal-to-nonexistant Republican bench in that area (and across the whole state, for that matter).

    I wrote a little profile on him here shortly after he took office last year.

    "My country is the earth, and I am a citizen of the world." - Eugene Debs

    by JayinPortland on Thu Jul 29, 2010 at 05:03:38 AM PDT

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