just received a notice from Washington Post. There is as yet nothing other than the headline on their website.
the message included
The blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico gushed even more oil than the worst-case scenario envisioned, a whopping 4.9 million barrels, or 205.8 million gallons, according to a new analysis by government scientists charged with estimating the flow rate.
Worse than the worst-case scenario
and at a maximum of $4,300/barrel, fines of over $21 billion dollars
I realize this diary does not contain much data. I will update as I get more.
Now that this is up, let me note all subsequent updates will be below the fold.
The story says the government scientists charged with estimating. It is still an estimate, and I presume one reason BP is hiring all the scientists is to be able to challenge the government's figures.
UPDATE 1
jethrock found more details at alternet. Here's part of what was posted in the comment:
"Not all of this oil and gas flowed into the ocean; containment activities conducted by BP under US direction captured approximately 800,000 barrels of oil prior to the capping of the well," they said.
The 4.9 million barrels is at the upper end of an earlier official estimate, which said that between 3.0 million and 5.3 million barrels had spewed from the well between April 20, when the BP-leased Deepwater Horizon rig exploded, and July 15, when a cap placed over the wellhead was finally sealed.
The estimates are considered to be +/- 10%.
So let's adjust.
4.9 million - 800,000 = 4.1 million into ocean.
4,100,000 - 410,000 = 3,690,000 x 4,300 = $15.867 billion
4,100,000 + 410,000 = 4.510,000 x 4,300 = $19.393 billion
-----
UPDATE 2 New York Times story up:
The estimates would make this spill far bigger than the 3.3 million barrels spilled by the Mexican rig Ixtoc I in 1979, previously believed to be the world’s largest accidental release of oil.
Federal science and engineering teams estimated that 53,000 barrels of oil per day were pouring from the well just before BP was able to cap it on July 15. They also estimated that the daily flow rate had lessened over time, starting at around 62,000 barrels a day and decreasing as the reservoir of hydrocarbons feeding the gusher was gradually depleted.
Previous estimates came from analysis of videos from remote controlled vehicles at the wellhead, modeling of the reservoir and measurements of the oil that was collected by surface ships in the response effort.
After BP capped the well, these measurements could be reinforced by pressure readings within the well. Those pressure readings were compared with pressure estimates when the well was first drilled to determine if the rate had changed over time, which it apparently did.
The government is continuing to study the data and may refine the estimate.
This story broke too late for nightly network news broadcasts. If someone is watching Keith let us know if he changes he show to include this.
-------------------
UPDATE 3 Washington Post story now up. From a quick glance, adds nothing to what is in NY Times story.
----------
UPDATE 4 Times story now has more material, but I see nothing new about the higher estimate of the amount spilled. New material more about BP doing static kill, and related.
Still nothing at either MSNBC or CNN. Post story looks unchanged.
---------------------
UPDATE 5 While MSNBC still does NOT have anything up on this story, what is at the top of the page is relevant - it is about where there is - and is't - sea life. You will want to read this because before the spill the Gulf of Mexico was one of the five most diverse areas for sea life. And it was also among the most threatened
------------
UPDATE 6 Thanks to Unenergy Unified Command for Deepwater Horizon Response
two snips - and since this a government site, I don't think we need worry about Fair Use boundaries, although I am trying to stay within them:
The new estimates reflect the collaborative work and discussions of the National Incident Command’s Flow Rate Technical Group (FRTG), led by United States Geological Survey (USGS) Director Marcia McNutt, and a team of Department of Energy (DOE) scientists and engineers, led by Energy Secretary Steven Chu.
At meetings on July 30 and July 31, the group of federal and independent scientists and engineers discussed new analyses and data points to provide the updated range, relying heavily on newly available pressure readings from the new containment cap. An estimation of how much the flow rate has decreased over time was enabled by observing the pressure at shut in and by initial pressure estimates for the well when it was first drilled.
"The revised estimates are part of this Administration’s ongoing commitment to ensuring that we have the most accurate information possible," said Secretary Chu. "I am grateful to the scientists and engineers who have worked diligently to help us meet that goal."
and
Today’s improved flow rate estimate brings together the work of several scientific teams and is based on a combination of analyses of high resolution videos taken by ROVs, measurements and modeling of reservoir and well properties, acoustic technologies, and measurements of oil collected by the oil production ship together with pressure measurements inside the containment cap.
While I am updating, from the lead-in there will be nothing about this on TRMS.
-----------------------