Primaries in both states are done
Summary:
SC has 6 reps: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats
SD has 1 rep: A Democrat
Possibly vulnerable:
SC-02 (R)
SC-05 (D)
SD-AL (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
and my previous diaries.
District: SC-01
Location Almost all of coastal SC, bordering NC and the Atlantic, including Charleston map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Henry Brown (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 42-56
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Democrat Ben Frasier, Republican Tim Scott
Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 78th most Blacks (20.9%)
Assessment A very Republican district. Scott has about $80K COH, Frasier has little.
District: SC-02
Location Southern SC, stretching north to the middle of the state, bordering GA and the Atlantic, including Columbia map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Joe Wilson (R)
VoteView 404
First elected 2001
2008 margin 54-46 over Robert Miller
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Robert Miller is running again.
Demographics 70th most veterans (15.1%), 60th most Blacks (26.2%)
Assessment Might be possible, Miller wasn't that far back in 2008. But not likely. Each has about $1.7 million COH.
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R
District: SC-03
Location Northwestern SC, bordering GA map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Gresham Barrett (R) retiring to run for governor
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 35-64
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Current opponents Republican Jeff Duncan, Democrat Jane Dyer
Demographics 49th most rural (49.7%), 80th most Blacks (20.5%), 36th most Republican
Assessment Pretty sure to be Republican. Neither candidate has much COH
District: SC-04
Location Northern SC, bordering NC map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Bob Inglis (R) Lost primary
VoteView 402.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 60-37 over Paul Corden
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 70-29
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Republican Dave Edwards, Democrat Paul Corden
Demographics Not unusual on what I track.
Assessment Another very Republican district. Corden has little COH, no info on Edwards
District: SC-05
Location map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative John Spratt (D)
VoteView 198.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin 62-37 over Albert Spencer
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Mick Mulvaney
Demographics 35h most rural (53.3%), 80th fewest Latinos (1.8%)
Assessment looks pretty safe. Spratt has $1.2 million COH, Mulvaney about $500K, but a lot from himself.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: SC-06
Location Southeastern quarter of SC, bordering the Atlantic, excluding Charleston map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative James Clyburn (D)
VoteView 67
First elected 1992
2008 margin 68-32 over Nancy Harrelson
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents Jim Pratt
Demographics 40th most rural (52.0%), 17th lowest income (median = $29K) 66th fewest Whites (40.3%), 14th most Blacks (56.7%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment Safe. Clyburn has $1.5 million, Pratt has little
District: SD-AL
Location The whole state map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Stephanine Herseth Sandlin (D)
VoteView 215
First elected 2004
2008 margin 68-32 over Chris Lien
2006 margin 69-29
2004 margin 53-46
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-38
Current opponents Kristi Noem
Demographics 58th most rural (48.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%), 66th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 8.1% Native Americans).
Assessment Looks pretty good. Sandlin has about $700K COH, Noem has about $300K
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Likely D