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Primaries in both states are done

Summary:
  SC has 6 reps: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats
  SD has 1 rep: A Democrat

Possibly vulnerable:
  SC-02 (R)
  SC-05 (D)
  SD-AL (D)
 

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
and my previous diaries.

District: SC-01
Location Almost all of coastal SC, bordering NC and the Atlantic, including Charleston  map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Henry Brown (R) Retiring
VoteView  NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 42-56
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Democrat Ben Frasier, Republican Tim Scott
Demographics   17th most veterans (17.2%), 78th most Blacks (20.9%)
Assessment A very Republican district.  Scott has about $80K COH, Frasier has little.

District: SC-02
Location Southern SC, stretching north to the middle of the state, bordering GA and the Atlantic, including Columbia  map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Joe Wilson (R)
VoteView  404
First elected 2001
2008 margin 54-46 over Robert Miller
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Robert Miller is running again.
Demographics  70th most veterans (15.1%), 60th most Blacks (26.2%)
Assessment Might be possible, Miller wasn't that far back in 2008. But not likely.  Each has about $1.7 million COH.
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R

District: SC-03
Location Northwestern SC, bordering GA  map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Gresham Barrett (R) retiring to run for governor
VoteView  NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 35-64
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Current opponents Republican Jeff Duncan, Democrat Jane Dyer
Demographics  49th most rural (49.7%), 80th most Blacks (20.5%), 36th most Republican
Assessment Pretty sure to be Republican.  Neither candidate has much COH

District: SC-04
Location  Northern SC, bordering NC  map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Bob Inglis (R) Lost primary
VoteView 402.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 60-37 over Paul Corden
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 70-29
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Republican Dave Edwards, Democrat Paul Corden
Demographics  Not unusual on what I track.
Assessment Another very Republican district.  Corden has little COH, no info on Edwards

District: SC-05
Location  map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative John Spratt (D)
VoteView  198.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin 62-37 over Albert Spencer
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Mick Mulvaney
Demographics   35h most rural (53.3%), 80th fewest Latinos (1.8%)
Assessment looks pretty safe.  Spratt has $1.2 million COH, Mulvaney about $500K, but a lot from himself.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D

District: SC-06
Location  Southeastern quarter of SC, bordering the Atlantic, excluding Charleston map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative James Clyburn (D)
VoteView 67
First elected 1992
2008 margin 68-32 over Nancy Harrelson
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents Jim Pratt
Demographics  40th most rural (52.0%), 17th lowest income (median = $29K) 66th fewest Whites (40.3%), 14th most Blacks (56.7%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment Safe. Clyburn has $1.5 million, Pratt has little

District: SD-AL
Location The whole state map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Stephanine Herseth Sandlin (D)
VoteView  215
First elected 2004
2008 margin 68-32 over Chris Lien
2006 margin 69-29
2004 margin 53-46
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-38
Current opponents Kristi Noem
Demographics  58th most rural (48.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%), 66th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 8.1% Native Americans).
Assessment Looks pretty good.  Sandlin has about $700K COH, Noem has about $300K
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Likely D

Originally posted to plf515 on Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 10:42 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Congressional tips n/t (9+ / 0-)

    We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

    by plf515 on Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 10:42:00 AM PDT

  •  To say that SD Dems are "lukewarm" is generous (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, Transactivist, Greasy Grant

    S H-S had a primary challenger, who was called off by Steny Hoyer.  We are generally quite indifferent about S H-S.  I go to party function, nobody gives a shit about her.  I'm not working for her, and I hear no interest in her outside of actual party functionaries.  Who's going to work for her?  Give her money?  I sure won't.  

    I am a restrictionist, and that is a progressive position.

    by numberzguy on Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 10:52:36 AM PDT

    •  What's the problem with her? n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Transactivist

      We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

      by plf515 on Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 11:00:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My opinion, as a former SD resident... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515, numberzguy

        I think she has to really pander to the conservative elements in SD to get elected. Makes her total crap on issues that matter to me. There are reasons why I don't live there anymore, and likely never will again.

      •  She's a Blue Dog, or, as I put it, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515

        a Useless Turd.

        She didn't support health care.

        She doesn't support most jobs bills.

        She does support Nancy Pelosi, and she is pro-choice, but other than that, I dunno.

        She is married to a guy from Texas (Sandlin), who used to be a Republican Rep from there, and she lives there a lot.  She is not often in SD.  

        But Herseth is an old SD political name and it keeps her in office.

        I am a restrictionist, and that is a progressive position.

        by numberzguy on Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 11:21:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  S H-S has lost my vote (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      plf515

      I won't vote for the repub but my hubby says he will vote against her no matter who the opponent is.

      I was quite excited about the primary challenger. What a joke that turned into.

  •  Thanks for putting all of this together (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, Transactivist

    Looking it over, makes me wonder if a little more cash were tossed at the Dems in SC-03 or to Edwards against Wilson, if it would make a difference...

    To stimulate wildly weak and untrained minds is to play with mighty fires. W.E.B. DuBois

    by dizzydean on Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 10:56:24 AM PDT

  •  SC-04 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515

    I'm a little confused here.  Do I recall correctly that Inglis lost a primary?  Anyhow, you have 2 R's listed and no D's.  Plus no primary dates (or "primary done" in the intro.)

    Makes sense to skip TN on this one, since today's the primary.  You'll be much more current by holding off on that one.

    exmearden: Grab every minute of joy you can. 8/30/09

    by Land of Enchantment on Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 11:56:27 AM PDT

    •  The primary is done (0+ / 0-)

      I put that in the first line.

      The "two Republicans" is just a typo.

      I will do TN soon.

      We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

      by plf515 on Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 12:55:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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