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Public Policy Polling (PDF) for Daily Kos. 8/7-8. Registered voters. MoE 4% (No trendlines)

If the candidates for US Senate this fall were Republican Mike Castle and Democrat Chris Coons, who would you vote for?

                       All   Dem   GOP   Ind
Chris Coons (D)         35    55    12    23
Mike Castle (R)         48    30    75    50
Undecided               17    15    13    27

Chris Coons (D)         44    67    17    29
Christine O'Donnell (R) 37    16    67    40
Undecided               19    16    15    31

Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure

Coons  31/31/39
Dem    42/25
GOP    19/40
Ind    23/30

Castle 51/32/18
Dem    47/35
GOP    60/25
Ind    49/32

O'Donnell is the local teabagger-supported fringe nut. And while she's been picking up some pretty big right-wing endorsements of late, fact is Delaware Republicans like Castle. He should win his primary easily, which is too bad. We'd be much better off facing the teabagger in the general election.

But even Castle is looking less than invincible, hovering under the 50 percent mark, and he is the de facto incumbent in this race, having been elected statewide in a succession of races since 1980, from Lt. Governor, to governor, to the House. And while incumbency doesn't appear to be too much of a drag on his name, this is a Democratic state, and his party ID is clearly having an effect. Given his popularity ratings, he should be enjoying a far bigger lead.

Coons is unknown by 39 percent of the electorate and has plenty of room to grow. And while the political culture in Delaware prevents him from going hard after Castle (civility is important), the state has proven its willingness to oust long-time AND beloved incumbents like Sen. William Roth (of Roth-IRA fame). Roth had served as a statewide federal elected official starting in 1966 until being defeated by current Sen. Tom Carper in 2000 despite being wildly popular -- a Mason-Dixon poll on July 10-12, 2000, found that Roth's favorable/unfavorable ratings were 53/16. Yet he still lost, in large part because of his age and health. Castle is currently 70 years old.

North Dakota and Arkansas are guaranteed Republican pickups this November. Delaware is clearly Republican favored, but this one hasn't been locked away just yet. Still, Coons won't start making serious headway until he improves his numbers among Democrats. In fact, Coons is getting just 59 percent of liberal voters, with 27 percent opting for Castle. That has to change.

Meanwhile, the House race to replace Castle remains one of the Democrat's top pickup opportunities this year, with John Carney currently beating Republicans Michele Rollins (48-31) and Glen Urquhart (48-30).

p.s. PPP polled respondents who had voted in at least one of the last three elections, so the standard is more than "registered voters", but less than "likely voters". Starting next week in our poll of Missouri, PPP will move to a "likely voter" screen.

Update: Here is the raw data file. We'll eventually figure out a better way to deliver and display this data, but for now, here's a .csv file.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:16 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Sweet. (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Timothy J, bear83, linkage, TofG, ctkosh, flhiii88

    Great to have this site back in the polling game.

    Now... if you could also poll New Hampshire (both Senate & House races), the Michigan Governor's race, and Ohio (Governor & Senate races), that'd be great.  :-)

  •  yes, it good to be back in polling (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, linkage, TofG

    congrats on the move!

    "The only person sure of himself is the man who wishes to leave things as they are, and he dreams of an impossibility" -George M. Wrong.

    by statsone on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:23:17 AM PDT

  •  It will all depend on cash and message and the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    maxomai, askew, linkage

    Does Coons have the moxie to run a tough, progressive campaign to upend Castle?
    Does Castle have any skeletons not yet seen in the closet?
    What role can Obama Biden play here?

    This race has been ignored by the National media.

  •  So the GOP needs at least 40 Seats (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    maxomai, linkage, TofG

    to take the House.

    •  42, more like (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Timothy J, bear83, linkage, TofG, flhiii88

      Cao and Djou are not holding LA-02 or HI-01.  

      By the same token, though, our open seats in AR-02, LA-03, NY-29 and TN-08 are probably also goners.  So, after those 7 seats flip, the number is 38.

      I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

      by Superribbie on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:31:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oops. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I meant TN-06.  The open 8th is very much holdable.

        I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

        by Superribbie on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:35:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  DE-AL (Carney) is another easy pick-up (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          The number is 39.  Kirk's seat in IL is also a possibility, but not a gimme.

          The world is kinda cold and the rhythm is your blanket, wrap yourself up in it, if you love it then you'll thank it.

          by Ajax the Greater on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:10:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That was included in the initial 7, (0+ / 0-)

            as it was a subject of the diary.  The number was 40.  Then, we won NY-23 and it was 41.  Then, Parker Griffith bolted the party and it was 40.  Then, the GOP won HI-01 and it's 39.  From there, I assume we get DE-AL, HI-01, and LA-02.  I assume they get AR-02, LA-03, NY-29 and TN-06.  So, 38.

            IL-10 is 50/50, as are a great host of other D seats.

            I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

            by Superribbie on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 11:13:47 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Ahhhhhhhhh (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bear83, TofG
    How I've missed my Daily Polls. How I've despised Ras-a-poll-losers.
  •  Poll Indiana (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    You said we'd hold the seat, but I hear very little about that race.

  •  odd numbers! (0+ / 0-)


    On DailyKos nothing is significant unless Obama doesn't do it.

    by glutz78 on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:29:28 AM PDT

    •  Castle pretty poular across the board (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      He is net positive with democrats and independents. Looks like a good number of republicans must consider him a RINO with 25% unfavorable.
      He will be tough to beat and Coons doesn't look all that well liked.

  •  curious (0+ / 0-)

    why this voter screen for this poll and a different one in other states? just because it was quicker/easier to pull? Regardless, nice to see some numbers.

  •  Castle under 50% is a very good sign... (9+ / 0-)

    because he is very well known, meaning folks are giving Coons the opportunity to earn their vote.  I think Coons is a really solid candidate, though I do worry that he hasn't made much head way in getting his name out in such a small state.  I mean there is two degrees of separation in Delaware, if two people don't know each other they surely know people in common.

    Coons needs to keep busting his butt crisscrossing the state and keep focusing on Castle's less than independent votes.  Delaware has a vested interest in seeing Obama/Biden succeed and Castle will work against seeing that happen.  

    What the "holding feet to the fire" folks are doing isn't simply cutting off their nose to spite their face - it's cutting off their head to spite their face.

    by Jonze on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:31:16 AM PDT

    •  DE is really three states (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      not just three counties.

      NCC and Wilmington is pretty urban, and pretty Dem. Kent is pretty purple. Sussex is basically the South, and more rural, and mirrors more closely those sentiments.

      The bulk of the population is in NCC, and down into Kent County.

      The right wing nutjobs tend to be in Sussex. It's not surprising they basically ambushed Castle at that town meeting.

  •  This one is very very winable. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Timbuk3, PAbluestater, bear83, beltane, TofG

    Deleware is the only state where Obamas approval ratings has increased since the start of his presidency. From 61 to 62 according to Gallup.

  •  Looking at the numbers... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Timbuk3, bear83, TofG

    only 53% of the poll sample said they voted for Obama in 2008, compared to 40% who voted for McCain.  That's in contrast to what actually happened in 2008, when Obama won Delaware 62%-37%.  So this looks like a MUCH less Democratic electorate than in 2008.  (And Obama's approval in this poll is only 50%-44%.)  Has Obama's support really fallen by THAT much in a blue state like Delaware?  We'll soon find out.

    Also, given that Tom Carper's been their Senator since 2001, and their Governor for 2 terms before that, and their lone Congressman for yet another decade before that, and their state treasurer for another term before that... 20% don't even know if they approve or disapprove of him as Senator?  Seems a bit high to me.  You would think Carper's one of those people that everybody in the state knows and has an opinion of, like Mike Castle (whose unknowns in favorability clock in at 18% in the poll).  So we're also talking about a pretty uninformed electorate too.

    •  DE voters tend to be EXTREMELY low information (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BruinKid, LordMike, PAbluestater, bear83, TofG

      Well, not ALL of them, but "name recognition" is a big thing, here. What a candidate stands for, or his/her voting record? Not so much.

      Which is why I've been happy to see "Chris Coons" yard signs springing up on main streets in northern DE.

      I'm going to see about volunteering to work for Coons. Get his "name recognition" up. I'd seriously like to see Castle defeated. He passes himself off as a "moderate", but like every other Republicant, when it really matters he does what the majority leader tells him to do.

      "Doing My Part to Piss Off the Religious Right" - A sign held by a 10-year old boy on 9-24-05

      by Timbuk3 on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:39:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Actually, they're not low info at all (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Timbuk3, TofG

        but the info is NOT from the MSM. It's from the local papers (the ones you never see or know about, because they're REALLY local), and from friends/relatives who either work for or know the candidate, or are friends/relatives of somebody who does.

        This is a SMALL STATE. REALLY small. If I want to find out something about a candidate, I'm not going to go looking for news - I'm going to call my neighbor/friend/cousin/sibling/parents and ask them what THEY know.

        Which is part of the reason why our elections tend to be, for the most part, pretty civil. Start smearing the other guy, and not only will most people find out pretty fast what's true and what's not, but if there's anything in YOUR past, it will be out there in a New York minute. Or faster.

        Not in the paper, where you can easily fight it. In the grapevine. Much harder to fight that.

    •  See my post for reality adjustment breakdown (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      See here.

      This will be the new norm with PPP polling and is one of the reasons I believe them to be a bad choice for polling. With horribly skewed samples such as this one (especially when talking about RV screens) you're going to get really screwy internals even if they get somewhat close on the actual race numbers.

      •  You are assuming (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Davidsfr, BruinKid, flhiii88

        the same electorate in 2010 and 2008? That's certainly a recipe for getting the numbers wrong.

        •  This is a RV screen, not a LV screen... (0+ / 0-)

 technically we shouldn't be assuming anything and the 2008GE numbers should match more closely with the actual results.

          •  No, it's not. (0+ / 0-)

            See the last paragraph of the story:

            p.s. PPP polled respondents who had voted in at least one of the last three elections, so the standard is more than "registered voters", but less than "likely voters".

            •  Then it's labeled incorrectly. (0+ / 0-)

              And I noted that above. It's either RV, LV or Adults.

              There's really no in-between.

              If Rasmussen pegged the President's approval rate at 55% with likely voters yet has the race about the same as PPP, how do you account for that discrepancy?

              What is the President's approval rating going to look like when they switch to likely voters?

              PPP has a track record of having very inaccurate polling when it comes to the internals of their poll (approvals, favorables, secondary questions, etc.). This survey continues that trend.

              •  I account for it... (0+ / 0-)

                by not really believing a damn thing that comes out of Rasmussen.  An earlier KS-Gov poll showed 100% of voters 18-29 "strongly disapprove" of Obama, and 100% of them wanted the health care reform bill repealed!  Why would you believe anything they publish without tacking on about an additional 10% margin of error?

                Rule of thumb: when something involves Rasmussen and a "discrepancy", they're related.

                •  Not disagreeing (re: Rasmussen) (0+ / 0-)

                  But you can't ignore the fact that Rasmussen found the President's approval rating in DE among LIKELY voters to be a healthy 55% (+11 spread) while PPP found the President's approval to be a very sub-par 50% (+6 spread) among REGISTERED VOTERS.

                  Yet both polls basically came to the same topline conclusion: +12 and +13 Castle, respectively.

      •  Um... (0+ / 0-)

        do you actually believe for a second that the actual electorate that turns out to vote this November will be anywhere near as Democratic as the one that showed up in 2008?  And if you do, then I have to ask, what are you smoking?

        Because if you don't, then what you just did in readjusting the numbers is no more than an exercise in intellectual masturbation.  Gee, if we could bring back the exact same Obama crowd from 2008... why then, Coons would only lose by 7 points!

        I'm sorry, but this has no bearing on reality.  The electorate is going to be more Republican in 2010, the only question is, how much more?

      •  OK, one more time (0+ / 0-)

        this is a SMALL state. The total possible data is small. You're not going to reach everybody, which skews things even more.

        Almost every statistic about this state swings wildly from year to year.  Small data sets tend to do that.

    •  By definition, any poll here (0+ / 0-)

      will hit a skewed sample. This is just the same.

      Who do you get when you poll people? The ones willing to talk to you. If it's a phone poll, you get the ones who actually answer the phone - and those tend to be older, less educated, technologically illiterate. IOW, Republicans.

      If you stop people on the street, same thing. Somebody who's busy won't stop and answer questions. Somebody who's retired will.

      ALL polls are, IMHO, skewed like this. It's just more obvious with a small data set.

  •  Will you poll OH-08 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Timbuk3, TofG

    How sweet would it be to watch a Boehner concession speech in November?

    News & views about the Obama Administration the 2012 Conventions & the '10 & '12 elections at DemConWatc

    by Oreo on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:34:01 AM PDT

  •  Chris Coons is a very good guy. (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Adam B, DelRPCV, mmacdDE, LordMike, Timbuk3, bear83, TofG

    I used to debate against him in college (he went to Amherst).

    He started college as a total wingnut. Then he spent a year abroad in Africa.  He came back completely politically transformed.

    "In public, the parties stage a show of bitter bipartisan stalemate. But when the cameras are off, they fuck like crazed weasels in heat." - Matt Taibbi

    by GreenSooner on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:34:12 AM PDT

    •  Now that we've apparently dodged the bullet... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DelRPCV, Timbuk3, TofG

      ...of Kris Kobach being the first APDA debater to make a major splash in national politics (unless you count Austan Goolsbee), let's get Coons into the Senate!

      "In public, the parties stage a show of bitter bipartisan stalemate. But when the cameras are off, they fuck like crazed weasels in heat." - Matt Taibbi

      by GreenSooner on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:36:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is it too late for Biden to resign... (0+ / 0-)

    ...and run for his old seat? He's useless as VP. And, Obama could appoint Hillary as VP, then send her out on the campaign trail to beat the shit uout of the GOP.

    •  Who isn't useless as VP? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mmacdDE, bear83

      VP is all about the uselessness.  It's only in the last couple presidencies that the VP has been given anything substantive to do.  It's not clear to me that Gore accomplished much of anything. And though Cheney accomplished a lot, that wasn't a good thing.

      All in all, useless VPs are the least of our problems. The office is designed that way.

      "In public, the parties stage a show of bitter bipartisan stalemate. But when the cameras are off, they fuck like crazed weasels in heat." - Matt Taibbi

      by GreenSooner on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:40:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Half a Cheer for Castle (0+ / 0-)

    I'd never, ever vote for the guy. And I certainly hope O'Donnell wins the primary, which would make this an easier race for Coons.

    But this country would be better off with two non-crazy major parties. And with a Democratic Party further to the left.

    And both goals would be helped by having more actually moderate Republicans.

    Mike Castle is one of the last moderate GOPers in DC.  

    So while I'd love to see him go, I'd also love to see more people like him occupying the seats on the Republican side of the aisle.

    "In public, the parties stage a show of bitter bipartisan stalemate. But when the cameras are off, they fuck like crazed weasels in heat." - Matt Taibbi

    by GreenSooner on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:39:15 AM PDT

    •  You assume he'd vote non-crazy (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, DelRPCV, mmacdDE

      And there's no evidence of that, given his recent House behavior and Collins-Snowe on the Senate side.

      Did you root for Lincoln Chafee?  Because Ocean Staters both liked him until the end and sent his ass home, because of who he'd put in power if reelected.

      •  I'm not rooting for Castle. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Precisely because he wouldn't vote non-crazy.

        But I'm old enough to remember a time when there were a significant number of moderate and liberal Republicans in the Senate.  Senators like Charles Mathias, Chuck Percy, and Lowell Weicker did, in fact, vote non-crazy.  We were a better country--and the Senate was a more functional institution--when there were Republican Senators who were actually sane in their legislative behavior.

        I do think that if there were a dozen actually moderate Republicans in the Senate, they'd likely behave differently.  But I don't know how to get from here to there. And I'm sure that electing Mike Castle wouldn't do it.

        "In public, the parties stage a show of bitter bipartisan stalemate. But when the cameras are off, they fuck like crazed weasels in heat." - Matt Taibbi

        by GreenSooner on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:09:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He'd only be there for four years, anyway. (0+ / 0-)

          Don't leave out Jacob Javitz from your list.  But I don't think the Maine Senators, plus Castle, Kirk and Brown does it.

          •  That's JavitS (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Adam B

            take it from this New Yorker.

            "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

            by TLS66 on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:20:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  That wasn't meant to be an exhaustive list. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Adam B

            You're right to mention Javits.

            I could also have added Ed Brooke, John Heinz, John Chafee, and probably half a dozen others.

            Frankly none of the current supposed Senate Republican moderates is remotely as liberal as any of these guys.

            When I said a dozen actually moderate Republicans, I meant just that. IMO none of the current Senators qualifies. Jeffords and Linc Chafee did.  Specter has always been too much of a weasel to make any real difference one way or another.

            "In public, the parties stage a show of bitter bipartisan stalemate. But when the cameras are off, they fuck like crazed weasels in heat." - Matt Taibbi

            by GreenSooner on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:21:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Castle needs to stumble (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, TofG

    He needs to make a mistake. he really just wanted to retire bhut the party almost forced him to run.  The voters are just rewarding him for all his years of service.They think in four years he will retire but once a senator gets in there they like to stay until they die.
    They need some debates where Castle may screw up and Coons needs to point out he is mostly voting against their interests. Against stimulus, health care and every other major democratic legislation.
    He needs to painted as just another right winger. he still has the reputation of being a moderate and he really isn't.
    Maybe rasmussen is starting to poll for real, the results are almost identical.

  •  Adjusting the poll to reality. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    PPP, as is their custom, has a horrible screen (interesting PS note though...why are they pretending this poll is a RV screen when it's actually a LV screen?)

    Anyways, adjusting the poll to the actual 2008 results of 62/37 (not 53/40 as is what's contained in this poll), here are the numbers for the President's approval and the Castle/Coons race (PPP's "results" in parenthesis):

    Do you approve or disapprove of President
    Barack Obama's job performance?

    Approve 55 (50)
    Disapprove 39 (44)
    Approve +16

    If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
    Republican Mike Castle and Democrat Chris
    Coons, who would you vote for?

    Castle 45 (48)
    Coons 38 (35)
    Castle +7

    •  Why would you adjust (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B

      a midterm turnout model in a year in which Democrats are suffering an intensity gap for the 2008 model -- a presidential year in which REPUBLICANS suffered an intensity gap?

      •  Because it's proven to be accurate with PPP's... (0+ / 0-)

        ...previous national election polling post-2008, specifically when it comes to favorables/internals.

        This is also, technically, a RV screen so it should more closely match with the 2008 election.

  •  I was hoping for better numbers... (0+ / 0-)


    DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
    LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

    by LordMike on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:46:21 AM PDT

  •  Teanuts really going after Castle (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mmacdDE, TofG

    for not Debating Tea Party Nut Christine O'Donnell.

    Once Biden and Obama come to DE - I don't think even Castle can beat that combo.

    Manan Trivedi PA-6 needs help against Gerlach's smear campaign

    by PAbluestater on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 08:47:22 AM PDT

  •  I got my Coons bumper sticker (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The campaign needs to do more to get his name out there though. I've seen Flowers for state treasurer signs and volunteers but nothing for Coons.

    •  They did have a nice presence at the fair (0+ / 0-)

      and were giving away yard signs.

      I'm surprised I haven't seen more signs, but most of what I've seen have been for more local candidates, and candidates who are in the primary.

      I expect to see more signs/stickers after that.

  •  No bad blood after the PA-primary spat in 2008? (0+ / 0-)

    I remember some harsh words between Kos and Tom Jensen at PPP after PPP released a poll of the PA presidential primary in 08 showing Obama going from 26 points down to either just 2 down or 2 up in a matter of two weeks or less. Kos wrote about on the front page, under the headline "Ridiculous Poll." Tom Jensen responded with some not-to-nice things to say about Kos.

    Guess it is all water under the pontoon--nice to see Kos with a pollster again.

    •  Well, they were wrong, and I was right :) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Davidsfr, TofG

      In any case, PPP adjusted their methodology, like good pollsters should, and got far more accurate.

      And today, they are among the five most accurate pollsters in the nation, and that's what's most important to me.

      •  Interesting thing was they were good in 08 except (0+ / 0-)

        for the PA primary and a couple of other contests. For some reason they really messed that one up.

        Of course they also badly missed in the NY-23 special last year, but I have an explanation for that, and I even e-mailed it to Tom Jensen, who I believe is very wrong in concluding he missed so badly there because of Dede's late withdraw. That didn't keep Siena or R2K from at least coming reasonably close.

        If you would be so kind as to inform Mr Jensen--and you need to be aware of this too since you will be relying on his polling--that robopolling, while usually accurate, can be problematic in certain legislative districts. Both NY-20 in 2006 and NY-23 in 2009 showed results from robopollsters that were very different from the results live interview polls showed, and the actual results of the election.

        The reason?

        I believe it is because both of these districts have a disproportionately high number of family farms within their boundaries. This demographic is probably extremely unlikely to want to respond to automated pollsters, much more so than the population in general. On the other hand, a live person, like Siena and R2K use, could gently persuade and coax the respondents to spend a few minutes talking to them. Districts with a high number of multi-linguals have also proven problematic for robopollsters.

        Just grist for the mill.

  •  Geez, Kos! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    You couldn't find a pollster who could give the Democrat the lead?


  •  Thank You - N/T (0+ / 0-)

    "Upward, not Northward" - Flatland, by EA Abbott

    by linkage on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:02:03 AM PDT

  •  Polls of political races are boring stuff to me (0+ / 0-)

    what is the point? Besides, I lie to pollsters. They can wait until the ballots are counted like everyone else.

    2010: corporate owned Republicans versus corporate owned Democrats. Vote!

    by anonymous White House source on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:03:38 AM PDT

  •  Castle Is Getting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    30% of the Dem vote?  Coons needs to take at least two thirds of those Dem voters away to have a chance.  I know there is a registration edge for Dems, but it would be helpful if someone put up the actual registration numbers.

  •  love the raw data, but shouldn't phone numbers (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tergenev, andgarden, SquatButt

    be redacted?

    those look like actual phone numbers with their answers to each question in the raw data...

    •  Yeah, I wondered about that (0+ / 0-)

      Reverse directory and the question list, and you have a very revealing bit of intelligence about 600+ people. Of course, I don't think responding to a poll gives anyone an expectation of privacy, but still, I don't know if I'd want Tea Party people combing such a poll and identifying MY house as belonging to a liberal democrat.

      -- I share no man's opinions; I have my own. -Ivan Turgenev -6.75 -3.79

      by tergenev on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:38:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But, then . . . (0+ / 0-)

        I do have a 'Conservatives: Arrogant, Incompetent Pricks' bumper sticker on the car I park in my driveway every night, so I don't think I'm foolin' anyone on my politics anyway. :)

        -- I share no man's opinions; I have my own. -Ivan Turgenev -6.75 -3.79

        by tergenev on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:41:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  complete privacy, no, but that's not the same as (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        having your phone number and list of opinions broadcasted on the internet. The raw data is great for everyone, and it makes sense that Markos should see those numbers. Hell, perhaps he should even call some of them himself to make sure they've been polled and that PPP is no R2K.

        But we have no real use for the phone numbers themselves, and publishing that list seems to be a bit unethical (though I'm sure it wasn't done with any harmful intent).

        •  Plus, it could skew the results (0+ / 0-)

          Publishing responses in a way that the speaker could be identified certainly might cause some people to answer some questions differently.

          -- I share no man's opinions; I have my own. -Ivan Turgenev -6.75 -3.79

          by tergenev on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:53:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  ditto (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I saw that and was looking to see if anyone brought it up yet.

      At least some of the digits should be redacted.

      If you don't get me, that's OK; I'm doing just fine without you

      by SquatButt on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:39:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

      I would take down the last 5 digits, at least.

      Doesn't PPP promise its polls to be individually confidential? Most pollsters do.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:50:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  sidebar: Obama endorsed CA runoff candidate (0+ / 0-)

    AUG 17 Runoff Election:

    Watch the Senate floor. You know what you'll see happening? Nothing. I sit there wondering what are they doing in China right now. - Sen. Michael Bennet

    by anyname on Tue Aug 10, 2010 at 09:36:00 AM PDT

  •  Great to see you back in the polling game. (0+ / 0-)

    And I am thrilled that you are using PPP. Castle is picking up lots of Democrats right now. Hopefully, Coons will be able to change that in the fall.

  •  welcome back (0+ / 0-)

    I especially look forward to the input from Kos and I'm glad to see the new polling.

  •  Will there be Del. senate debates? (0+ / 0-)

    If so, how many? And how will Castle explain
    his appalling series of "no" votes.

  •  Visualization Of Raw Data (heatmap, favorability) (0+ / 0-)

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