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In a recent "issues" poll, CNN asked (.pdf) about some hot button issues such as the Ground Zero mosque (68% of the public opposes it, which is why there is a Bill of Rights in the Constitution), the 14th amendment controversy (only conservatives and Republicans think it's a good idea to alter the Constitution to fit their prejudices), and gay marriage. They also asked about the bill for state aid to support teachers and Medicaid (60% support it.)

The gay marriage question was really interesting. They asked in two different ways (formatting and poll wording from pollster.com): is there a constitutional right to gay marriage, and should there be a constitutional right to gay marriage?

Do you think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?
49% Yes, 51% No


Do you think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid
?
52% Yes, 46% No

So, on the question of what's the right thing to do, a majority of the public are supportive.

Nate helpfully supplies some context:

If it feels like a corner turned, it is. Even if the next poll shows a few points swing backwards, it doesn't matter. After all, as David Madland and Ruy Teixeira has pointed out, the millennials have no use for this issue:

Almost two-thirds agree that religious faith should focus more on promoting tolerance, social justice, and peace in society, and less on opposing abortion or gay rights.

While cynics like Peter King (bigot-Long Island) think the GOP is better off going after illegals, the fact is that the future belongs to equality.

But don't plan on convincing seniors any time soon. Talk to them about death panels, instead.

"People are still afraid that there are death panels ... or that Medicare is going to go away," says Cheryl Matheis of AARP, the nation's largest seniors organization. "We have an obligation to get the information out there.

Indeed. In fact, one of the outstanding comments on the gay marriage issue came from David Boies, one of the lawyers (with Ted Olson) that prepared for and won this case in CA. Boies noted that as proven in a court of law after exhaustive fact finding, there's no basis for continuing discrimination. No posturing allowed, just the facts.

The same has happened with autism and vaccines and evolution v creationism and intelligent design. Jason Rosenhouse:

It also occurred to me that there are a lot of similarities between this decision and the decision in the Dover evolution case. Hard-core right-wingers live in a fantasy world of their own creation. It is a world in which creationism and ID are legitimate science and evolution is not. It is also a world in which gay couples pose some sort of threat to heterosexual marriage, or are too morally suspect to raise children. When thundered from a stage or a pulpit to a generally supportive audience, such notions play very well. But put them in a forum with rules of evidence and a sober, nonemotional tone, and they crumble. Judge Walker in this case was absolutely scathing towards the defense, just as Judge Jones was in the Dover case. When forced to defend their ideas rationally, the right-wingers always come off looking like fools.

Too bad we can't put "death panels" on trial.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:40 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Most polls about primary elections were WRONG (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheIsleOfMan

    Why would anyone begin to believe these so called polls now?

    •  Look at the trend lines (6+ / 0-)

      that's where the validity lies, over time.  It's unmistakeable.  It will need to keep moving upwards a bit more for me to feel confident about an election scenario, which seesm to bring out the hard-core opposition.  But this is good news and more back-up for court decisions.

      •  The trend lines (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Heart of the Rockies, Matt Z

        Also show the foul influence of Karl Rove placing anti-gay measures on state ballots during the 2004 elections, but also note the blip was not nearly so significant in 2008.  Perhaps people are wising up to the Right using divisive tactics to cover up their corporate agenda.

        •  Exactly right (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SCFrog, Leslie H, Matt Z

          It was no coincidence that anti-gay measures were on so many states' ballots in November 2004.  It was a ploy to engage with the religious conservatives, get them riled up and involved and into the polling place where they would vote for Bush.  And it worked.  It must be particularly easy to manipulate those who believe in the supernatural.

          •  yessir!! Raise up a child to believe in (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Matt Z

            magic/supernatural/fantasy and they are incredibly easy to manipulate when they are grown. All you need are a few cherry picked verses, repeated ad nauseum, and they'll do anything you tell 'em God wants 'em to do.  

            If you don't know history, you don't know anything. You're a leaf that doesn't know it is part of a tree. ~Michael Crichton, Timeline

            by Leslie H on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 11:20:00 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Which polls, about which primaries? (4+ / 0-)

      Really, attacking random sampling as a means of understanding a large population displays an anti-science bias.

      In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

      by blue aardvark on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:57:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's been a rash of (5+ / 0-)

        "all polls are worthless" sentiment in comments here since the R2K fiasco.  But I agree that borders on anti-science -- or, if you don't want to get in the middle of the fight over whether social science is science, then I would at least call it anti-intellectual.  Despite the increasing challenges of cell phones, caller ID, etc., reputable polling firms (including quasi-academic organizations like Pew) have a remarkable track record of accurately predicting outcomes.

        As for the primaries, that was mainly New Hampshire.  And that was attributable at least as much to rapidly changing sentiment as to flaws in the polling methodology.  Most of the primaries were accurately predicted by the final polls.

        Wieso? Weshalb? Warum? Wer nicht fragt, bleibt dumm!

        by cardinal on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:07:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yes I am not sure where this comes from (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cardinal, blue aardvark

        the polls on the GA gov primary & the senate primaries in CO were certainly not wrong. In fact, I can't think of any primary polls offhand that were totally wrong, although there may have been a few.

  •  Today is the day the flood gates open in CA n/t (0+ / 0-)

    "...calling for a 5" deck gun is not parody. Not by a long shot." (gnaborretni)

    by annieli on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:42:42 AM PDT

  •  What about endless war? (2+ / 0-)

    Will "The Millenials" be the generation that has no use for the endless wars?

    Sure will be nice to see the end of the republican gay-bashing if we can get the millenials to vote.

    The next step is to stop spending $950 billion per year on the WAR Department.

    "Drill Baby Drill": Stupid in 2008, criminally stupid now.

    by MD patriot on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:43:04 AM PDT

  •  Gay Marriage support in the Americas (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lirtydies, Matt Z, beltane, blue aardvark

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:43:53 AM PDT

  •  Frame the mosqe question better (8+ / 0-)

    68% are against a mosque at ground zero.

    I wonder what the number would be if the question was "Are you for or against a mosque that is two and a half blocks around the corner of ground zero?"

  •  My perverse hope is that it's left to the states. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Empty Vessel

    Just because I'm morbidly curious which jackass state will be last to acknowledge gay marriage.

    My bet is Kentucky - the Adolph Rupp state.

    I'm gonna go eat a steak. And fuck my wife. And pray to GOD - hatemailapalooza, 052210

    by punditician on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:44:29 AM PDT

  •  Pollls on this issue are bullshit (4+ / 0-)

    Who cares?  You don't base human rights and civil rights issue on popular opinion.  Thats how  California got Prop Hate.

    Down with Prop H8! Jerry Brown for CA_GOV 2010

    by GlowNZ on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:45:39 AM PDT

  •  David "Boies"....:-)....n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT

    "Who put these fingerprints on my imagination?" -- Declan Patrick MacManus

    by paulitics on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:46:00 AM PDT

  •  lol @ bigot- long island. (0+ / 0-)

    thats exactly what he is.

    Down with Prop H8! Jerry Brown for CA_GOV 2010

    by GlowNZ on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:46:44 AM PDT

  •  I think Democrats (10+ / 0-)

    should take this to heart and stop chasing the old people who watch Fox News and start focusing on the young.  There is a whole demographic out there who are liberal and care but don't feel connected to the process.  

    •  right on (0+ / 0-)

      The people who think politics is all theater is our biggest potential target market.

      People who think abortion and gay rights and evolution and whatever are important issues aren't going to vote for us anyway.

      •  I think they are all important (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lirtydies, washunate

        and I vote for us.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:12:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  in aggregate, of course (0+ / 0-)

          But more seriously, are you saying that you would list abortion, gay marriage, and evolution as your most important priorities?

          Generally speaking, those kinds of issues aren't ranked as the most important priorities (again, in aggregate; there are always some people who care very deeply about any issue - and those are the folks who drive it forward, making the majority pay attention to them)

  •  Like Boies/Olson's argument, BUT (0+ / 0-)

    it will have little, if any impact, on what the S.Ct. decides.

    This is the same court that has a certain justice that argued that the guilt or innocence of a defendant doesn't matter so long as he or she obtains due process according to the rules set up by a court.

    My point is facts are now- but not controlling.

  •  progress is generational (0+ / 0-)

    It happens as the old status quo dies out.  People will get over their ridiculous fears eventually.  The younger generations are buying the homophobia shit any more than they do the racism shit.

    Good thing to see. :)

    "Glenn Beck ends up looking like a fat, stupid child. His face should be wearing a chef's hat on the side of a box of eclairs. " - Doug Stanhope

    by Front Toward Enemy on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:49:28 AM PDT

  •  It's not science... (0+ / 0-)

    That will kill religion - it's conservative ideology.  As I've said about marriage, when an institution starts to become more and more exclusive, it starts to die.  Conservative Christianity is all about hating the others.  When science proves that 'others' are not so bad, it's Christianity that suffers, not science.  Religion, especially Christianity, should be about acceptance, tolerance, charity and love.  When it is not, when it becomes exclusive, it dies - like all human institutions.

    Does Aqua Buddha wear Aqua Velva or is he an Old Spice man?

    by RichM on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:50:25 AM PDT

  •  It was just a matter of time before the whole (0+ / 0-)

    paranoid nonsense was going to come crashing down.

    And it looks like the process is accelerating lately.

  •  O/T The Bush tax plan vs. the Obama tax plan (6+ / 0-)

    If someone wants to diary this graph I guarantee a recommended diary. (Provided an ounce of work is put into it, of course.)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:53:57 AM PDT

  •  remember that chart whenever you get depressed (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky, Matt Z

    Boomers may still be fighting the culture wars, but millennials never were even taught why they're important, let alone how to hate. Y'all completely and totally won! That is cause for celebration.

    Now, let's move forward...some of us would like to address more important issues than those from a half century ago :)

    There will be a few hangers-on clamoring about abortion and gays and darkies and whatnot, but rest assured they are a small and shrinking minority. No one is convinced by the blathering.

  •  My pastor was speaking about (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, Mets102, angry marmot

    the perceptions of Christians among young people.

    He cited a survey indicating that 91%! of the young think the church is anti-gay. I have to wonder if the other 9% didn't understand the question?

    Anyway, the clock is running out on marriage being for one man and one woman.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 09:55:57 AM PDT

    •  The other 9% probably live in parishes (0+ / 0-)

      where Rome's stance is, for all practical purposes, ignored.

      For instance, the Catholic church located in the Castro, with something like 75% of their congregation being made up of LGBT people.

  •  When you've lost Glenn Beck... (6+ / 0-)

    'Normal' has always been collaborating with injustice. - Tim Wise

    by indiemcemopants on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:01:14 AM PDT

    •  ... you've had no mind to lose n/t (5+ / 0-)

      "...calling for a 5" deck gun is not parody. Not by a long shot." (gnaborretni)

      by annieli on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:06:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You watch the wingnuts spin this (4+ / 0-)

      Beck knows they've lost marriage equality and DADT so he's popped his 'chute.

      •  Beck is interested (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AUBoy2007, raincrow, Matt Z

        in making the country more Republican. What I think is happening is Republicans are seeing the polls and they know they can't be anti-gay and expect to move the country to the right.

        That's one thing about people with an agenda: if you get in their way they will crush you. When it helped them to trash gays they did it but now that it looks bad for them, they're stopping. It won't be too long before Republicans start saying they're the REAL gay rights heroes.

        'Normal' has always been collaborating with injustice. - Tim Wise

        by indiemcemopants on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:27:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Some traditional conservatives (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          indiemcemopants, raincrow, Matt Z

          are still scared shitless of the Religious Reich because they threaten their own power, which is why they're not out there bleating about gays and abortion but rather the pocketbook issues like taxes and Social Security. They also know that a healthy percentage of their own ranks are gay, whether closeted or of the Log Cabin variety; they don't want to risk losing that group.

          The Republicans in my own family are of that stripe; it's ironic that "godless liberal" me is the only one still involved in religion though we were all raised good Lutherans. They'll rail about Obamacare and the like, but they have nothing but contempt for the "religionists", the Tea Party, and especially Sarah Palin and her ilk. As long as an issue doesn't affect their bank accounts they could give a flying fig about it, so they don't get into the whole evil gay/abortion murder bit. They may not care for either gays or abortion, but they can see there are times when abortion might be preferable (sort of a last resort thing) and they know gays personally and have no problem with them.

          "When it gets harder to love, love harder" -- Van Jones, NN10, 7/23/10

          by Cali Scribe on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:56:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  He is a rat deserting a sijnking ship. (4+ / 0-)

      He knows he has lost, so his only strategy is to pretend he didn't care.

      "Don't bring that horse in here!" -- Cassandra

      by tc59 on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:25:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Truly remarkable when one considers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z

    that the Right has thrown everything but nuclear weapons at this issue for decades.  I guess you can't be both FOR the Constitution and against it at the same time.

    Brown skin is not probable cause.

    by mojave mike on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:02:53 AM PDT

    •  Look at how anti-miscegenation sentiments (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z

      outside the South dropped off after Loving. Look at the radical paradigm shift in favor of clean air and water in the 60s -- people of all sociopolitical stripes said YES en masse (pre-Right-Wing-Noise-Machine). Look how rapidly Americans have shed their addiction to tobacco -- a drug addiction in widespread decline!

      As a wearer of an Armchair Sociologist hat, I don't think this is at all a matter of principle or logic, i.e., I do not ascribe to it any premeditation or active cogitation. I think this is mostly a reflexive response to being "culturally marinated" in a new idea -- i.e., it's the result of plain old osmosis. Enough people start applying noise/reality/pressure to unmindful opposition. There's a tipping point at which most people realize it's no longer worth the energy required to continue dressing the Emperor. They wake up and POOF >> change you can believe in.

  •  And National Organization for Marriage will (6+ / 0-)

    fall out of love with with their "majority rules, the people have spoken..." talking points in 3, 2, 1....

    Trickle down Equality isn't working

    by Scott Wooledge on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:05:49 AM PDT

  •  Poll results: 51% constitutionally ignorant (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow

    or maybe the poll question just sucks:

    "Do you think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?"

    Well, I guess the correct answer here is: gays have as much as anyone have a "constitutional right" to get married, and The constitution does not give the govt. authority to require gender specification on government issued licences.

  •  Sort of funny, (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AUBoy2007, raincrow, Matt Z, Eddie L

    I was called delusional, and IIRC a troll by one poster only a few years ago here because I said that gay marriage would become legal in most of the country within 10 years.

    Some folks were shocked, shocked I tell you at the prospect of providing this divisive social issue in the run up to the election of 2008. I was attacked as being "dangerous to the election of Democrats", or something like that.

    I lol'd then, I lol now.

    Dean was wrong.
    We don't need to take our country back. We need to take our Party back.

    by shpilk on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:06:57 AM PDT

  •  Marriage is a personal commitment, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow

    an exercise of the basic human right to associate with whomever one wants to.  The Constitution does not grant rights, other than the civil rights associated with the obligations of citizenship (voting, holding office, serving on juries, etc.).  What the Constitution addresses are the OBLIGATIONS of agents of government to provide equal treatment.  So, if the marriages of some people are recorded (they didn't use to be under the common law), then all similar commitments have to be recorded because of the OBLIGATION to provide equal treatment.  (One solution to compliance would seem to be not to record any marriages at all, just as, in the south, the response to the obligation to provide equal access to public swimming facilities was to shut them all down).

    The Constitution is not a menu for an exclusive diner.

    by hannah on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:07:28 AM PDT

  •  New right wing culture war conspiracy theory (7+ / 0-)

    Obamacare is trying to kill off all the old people to eliminate opposition to gay marriage

  •  I'm on the front lines of the (9+ / 0-)

    generational shift, teaching at a university that, demographically speaking, should have a very conservative student body.  But it's clear that, at worst, they simply don't give a crap about the issue, and have no idea why their parents are so hysterical over people loving each other.

    Wieso? Weshalb? Warum? Wer nicht fragt, bleibt dumm!

    by cardinal on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:10:42 AM PDT

    •  that's about what the polls say (5+ / 0-)

      ...all of them.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:14:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  One thing that considers me, cardinal, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cardinal, Matt Z

      is that although the young are more tolerant, I find (on average) they are more mathematically and grammatically illiterate than their parents and grandchildren. They're very creative - but often quite ignorant.

      Maybe I've just been teaching too long (over 25 years).

      "Statistics are people with the tears washed away." Sociologist Ruth Sidel

      by Vicky on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 11:42:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  One thing that CONCERNS me . . . (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        yeesh - just finished teaching a six-week online course last Friday and finished the grading Tuesday. I need my upcoming vacation.

        "Statistics are people with the tears washed away." Sociologist Ruth Sidel

        by Vicky on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 11:44:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I haven't been teaching long enough (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z

          to make such an assessment -- but my father, who has been a college professor for 35 years, has been making that observation for as long as I can remember (in other words, he's seen slow but constant decline in their abilities over the years).  As a poli sci professor, I find their biggest weakness to be a lack of critical thinking skills.  There is no rote-memorization test I could write that's too difficult for them to pass -- they're quite capable at that.  But in a class of 30, only 2 or 3 will really "get" an assignment that involves evaluating competing arguments or viewing data through a particular theoretical lens.

          Wieso? Weshalb? Warum? Wer nicht fragt, bleibt dumm!

          by cardinal on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 12:58:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Misinformation on the "Ground Zero" mosque (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AUBoy2007, raincrow, Matt Z

    It isn't at Ground Zero. Once it is built you won't even be able to see it from there. It is just in the neighborhood, but it is in no way associated with Ground Zero or the memorial planned for that site. Yet many people believe it is, because of the oversimplistic reporting.

  •  I however do NOT approve of Gay Divorcees. nt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow

    "Half of the American people never read a newspaper. Half never vote for President. One hopes it is the same half." - Gore Vidal

    by sapper on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:19:17 AM PDT

    •  First marriage equality, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Black Knight, raincrow

      then divorce equality -- especially where it involves custody issues. Too many men and women have been separated from kids they've raised with their partners when that partner "gets religion" and breaks up the relationship, taking the kids with them. (Happened to my mom-in-law's goddaughter.)

      "When it gets harder to love, love harder" -- Van Jones, NN10, 7/23/10

      by Cali Scribe on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:32:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm so sorry for her... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        Heartbreaking.  It's bad enough to have your relationship break up, but to lose your kids too?

        I am heartened to see that courts are beginning to side with the partners and to treat their parental rights the same way they would a heterosexual.  But we still have a ways to go, definitely.

  •  Two thoughts: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AUBoy2007, Matt Z, TheIsleOfMan
    1. I distrust the belief that "youth is on our side."  They ar when they are young, but as I have learned the heard way, supportive poeple can begin to have doubts once they have children of their own (not that they feel that gays will hurt their children, but rather a fear that their child might be gay & what that would mean... and though it throws all logical thinking aside, they thik that if their kids are not "exposed" to the idea of gay relationahsips, they won't fall into one).
    1. Nate should really redo his chart.  The grapical analysis is a bit graphic, not to mention his talk about "sensitive endpoints."

    "Don't bring that horse in here!" -- Cassandra

    by tc59 on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:20:24 AM PDT

    •  The thing is those kids have grown up (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      raincrow, Matt Z, TheIsleOfMan

      knowing gay people as people, not demons, whether it's in high school, college, or in the workplace. My own revelation came first when a good friend came out to me so I could help break the news to a mutual female friend who had a crush on him. Later, I had several co-workers who were gay men and lesbians, and found they had the same problems I did in dealing with assholic sales reps and dumb bosses.

      The prevalence of prominent people who've come out, especially in the music and TV/movie business, also helps -- in the old days, actors like Raymond Burr and Rock Hudson had to hide their true sexuality out of fear of career death, but now you can have Ellen DeGeneres make her revelation a part of her TV sitcom with no loss of popularity, and even someone like Neil Patrick Harris who plays a womanizer can come out as gay and still keep his job. And the uncertain orientation of Adam Lambert (is he gay or isn't he?) merely adds to his mystique.

      "When it gets harder to love, love harder" -- Van Jones, NN10, 7/23/10

      by Cali Scribe on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:43:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  As a public school teacher of Middle Schoolers (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      raincrow, Matt Z

      I know what you are saying, but I teach in a pretty "conservative" area when it comes to hovering parents and upscale demographic. Lots of W stickers still floating around on the back of expensive cars.

      I can tell you, as the Who said, "The Kids are Alright." There is some typical middle school age homophobia BUT there is a dramatic and obvious shift in how the issue is perceived in general. Matter of fact statements like 'Oh, everyone know's he's gay" or girls "going out" are commonplace and accepted. Actually, it's the homophobes who are ostracized. And really, it is not a political or rights issue for them. The ostracize haters because they're haters, and feel like people should be who they are. The A team quarterback two years ago was out and when our school won the district, he kissed his boyfriend in front of EVERYONE on the sidelines. And then got ISS for PDA. Go figure.

      In regard to Nate's "graphic" graphic, uh, yeah. It looks like a dick. Isn't that ironic....

      Borrowed time is borrowed trouble.

      by TheIsleOfMan on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:43:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Caveat on all of what I said (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        Even though this is about a 40% upscale demographic school, the rest are almost all lower socioeconomic students. Around here, that means mostly Latino, with a few African Americans. THAT is where this change differs. Among the Latino community here there is a VERY anti-homosexual vibe, ditto the African American kids. They may not say much, but they don't like it. It was for this very reason that I began to wear nail polish and keep pictures of my brother and his boyfriends on my desk, along with pictures of my racially mixed family (which were already there but not as many or as obvious. The nail polish was a HUGE deal, but it started a HUGE conversation. And when I got asked about it I would always say,'Everyone is different. Does this nail polish make me gay? Next time you see a man wearing nail polish, or "looking gay", remember me. Because people are not always what you think you see."

        After a few years of that I started to see a relatively large shift among Latinos in their attitudes, and even began to hear about kids gay uncles or their aunt and her "man"(woman) and their kids.

        So as we know the gay population is there in those demographics, its just the cultural barriers that need to be breached. It can happen one person at a time.

        Borrowed time is borrowed trouble.

        by TheIsleOfMan on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:55:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Since you have a view "from the inside" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z, TheIsleOfMan

        I will take comfort from your report.  But I will still sleep with one eye open (metaphorically).

        "Don't bring that horse in here!" -- Cassandra

        by tc59 on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:57:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think you're right to. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z

          Because we really don't know what we'll end up with in 15 years. In the mean time, try to take comfort in the fact that a bunch of queer kids are running around school giving their administrators tachycardia.

          Borrowed time is borrowed trouble.

          by TheIsleOfMan on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 11:04:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Is tachycardia similar to (0+ / 0-)

            sticky tack?

            "Don't bring that horse in here!" -- Cassandra

            by tc59 on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 11:08:48 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  more like heart attack (0+ / 0-)

              with sticky tack it is the opposite. That is teachers and administrators running around giving it to kids to put up inane posters in the hallways with slogans like "Everyone Has Feelings!" and "Don't be a But Head! Don't Smoke!" or "Vote for President in the School Elections" meaning mock Nationals, posters all done up in RED in 2008.

              Borrowed time is borrowed trouble.

              by TheIsleOfMan on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 11:21:22 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Some may shift... (0+ / 0-)

      but, if you look at the most likely reasons why they would shift, those reasons are increasingly unimportant:

      1.  Fear of bigotry - when these millenials are in their 40s and 50s, with teenage children of their own, there will be much less bigotry.  Marriage equality will have been in place for decades, DOMA gone, DADT overturned, the younger generations even more overwhelmingly nonhomophobic than the millenials.
      1.  Fear that there will be no grandkids - the methods for helping couples conceive artificially will only improve over the years, and the millenials will already have known personally or otherwise been aware of the many LGBT couples who have children.
  •  Polls only matter when they (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky, AUBoy2007, raincrow, Matt Z

    show that America "disapproves" of President Obama.  I know because Fox News told me so.

    See, now you're in the minority. It's supposed to taste like a s**t taco. -Jon Stewart

    by asm121 on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:25:23 AM PDT

  •  Nate Silver's graph looks like a wang (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AUBoy2007

    You know it's a plot by the gays to put their penises all over the place!

    /crazy right wing nut job conspiracy theory

    Proud Socialist Fuckstick

    by yg17 on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:26:09 AM PDT

  •  asdf (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AUBoy2007, raincrow

    Too bad we can't "put mosque building on trial".  The number of Americans exhibiting anti-Muslim sentiment is chilling.  And it all comes from winger demagoguery with little push back.

  •  I like the slope (0+ / 0-)

    at the end of the "favor" curve there. Gettin' a little steeper.

  •  Let's have a trial for abortion rights (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow

    It also occurred to me that there are a lot of similarities between this decision and the decision in the Dover evolution case. Hard-core right-wingers live in a fantasy world of their own creation. It is a world in which creationism and ID are legitimate science and evolution is not. It is also a world in which gay couples pose some sort of threat to heterosexual marriage,

    and in which fetuses have Social Security numbers. Or something.

    Much as me and mine have benefitted from legal abortion, I wish in some ways the courts could have another crack at this. I don't think there was a trial in Roe v. Wade (but someone can correct me). Maybe if the decision hadn't involved making up all that law that back in the 70s seemed fine to do, it would have weathered better.

    Because abortion really is one of those issues, like gay marriage and creationism, that's driven entirely by sectarian concerns "that when thundered from a stage or a pulpit" get some foothold.

    Large-animal vets call it "pinching one off", I believe, and it should be that simple. Medically, it basically is. Another thing to thank God for.

    They must have a war room at the White House. I think they've got a sissy room too. - Ed Schultz, NN10

    by itswhatson on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:29:28 AM PDT

  •  Geesh people! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raincrow

    <channelling Dr Freud>Sometimes a graph is just a graph.

    "So it was OK to waterboard a guy over 80 times but God forbid the guy who could understand what that prick was saying has a boyfriend."--Jon Stewart

    by craigkg on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 10:31:11 AM PDT

  •  To what extent (if any) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AUBoy2007
    ... is CNN accounting for a "Bradley effect"?  

    I'd be openly thrilled if I thought a majority of Americans had gained some enlightenment on marriage equality.  I'm pessimistic, though, that what we're seeing is the willingness of people to give "correct" answers rather than "honest" answers.

    •  I think a regional breakdown would reveal (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      osterizer

      some things...

      I'm fairly certain the metro areas in bluer states (the coasts, etc) would be far more tolerant, and the red southern and interior states would be more bigoted. It isn't just the age difference, it's the regional difference. That would explain a great deal, I think.

      If you live in the South or Midwest, or interior western states like Wyoming, the averages in the poll wouldn't be at all evident, whereas if you live in Los Angeles or New York, you'd experience far more tolerance among a greater spectrum of age groups.

    •  More like (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      osterizer

      abstract support vs. concrete opposition. The majority now supports us to the extent that doing so doesn't require any effort on their part. They don't regard it as something that affects them personally. The opposition, while now in the minority, does take the issue personally, and they're willing to put in plenty of time and money to defend their views.

      That means that as of now, our majority support doesn't mean much because it's coming from people who are for the most part unwilling to get involved.

      If Nixon was cocaine for the resentful psyche, Palin is meth—Andrew Sullivan

      by ebohlman on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 06:28:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Use Nate's graph against all those folks (0+ / 0-)

    who claim that anti-gay marriage laws are valid because the majority rules.  Ask them: will you still believe that when the majority decides the other way, which is clearly going to happen?

    I finally put in a signature!

    by Boris Godunov on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 11:09:22 AM PDT

  •  Go Millennials! (0+ / 0-)

    It really IS about you. <not snark>

    Just make sure you drag every one of your friends to the polls on November 2.

  •  Wow. Turn the first chart upright and it looks... (0+ / 0-)

    ...both like a statue of the Virgin Mary and an erect penis. That's got to mean something...but I'm not exactly sure what!

  •  I really doubt we're over 50%... (0+ / 0-)

    support for SSM right now. Folks don't like to admit to a pollster that they are bigoted so they'll sometimes lie. That's why votes on gay issues pretty much always yield less support than polls prior to the vote - typically by several percentage points. That said, the trend is indisputable and once the geezer bigots expire and gay folks finally gain equality, society will wonder what all the fuss was about.

    Just another socialist fuckstick homosinner!

    by Ian S on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 12:09:38 PM PDT

    •  I think we are (0+ / 0-)

      but as I said in another comment, our supporters are considerably less willing to expend any time, effort or money for us than our opponents are willing to expend time, effort and money against us.

      If Nixon was cocaine for the resentful psyche, Palin is meth—Andrew Sullivan

      by ebohlman on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 06:31:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It is the demise of a Wedge Issue... (0+ / 0-)

    The GLBT has been with us as a wedge electorial issue since the early 80's -- attitudes toward same gender marriage was not on deck then, it was more about HIV/AIDS policy in the mid 80's (equal access to advanced medical care), and just prior to that it was in the clothes of extending existing Civil Rights Laws to cover housing, jobs, public services, etc, to the GLBT among us.  But no matter the content of particular issues, it was all about equity.  What the whole 30 years of electorial history around this wedge issue is about is in fact the political science of defeating the latest wedgie they throw up.  

    In this vein, I want to recommend a new book -- which is tied into a Ken Burns series that will be on PBS this fall, about an old historical Wedge Issue that profoundly impacted US politics in a zillion ways,  The book -- "Last Call: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition" by Daniel Okrent.  Ken Burns film is scheduled for this fall, and while Okrent and Burns shared research materials, apparently one did a book, and the other the PBS Series.  

    Prohibition began to be an electorial wedge issue in the 1880's and 90's, and defined American Politics between the end of TR's Progressive administration, on through the teens and twenties, right up till 1934, when FDR brought back legal 3.2 Beer and then the States ratified repeal.  The temperance Movement moved Womens' voting rights forward -- without Prohibition the success of suffrage in 1919 probably would not have been possible.  (They linked).  It wasn't till the Great Depression so reduced State and Local Tax Revenue so as to nearly bankrupt state and local government, that the light bulb went on, instead of paying the bootlegger, the state could sell thirsty folk something to drink, and TAX IT, as well, in some states, establish state monopoly booze stores, (little socialism) and make a profit on them, and apply that to roads or education or whatever.  Anyhow, end of the wedge issue that so influenced US politics at all levels for about 50 years.

    But it is the politics of the use of the wedge that is key here, and why GLBT equity in all its forms is so similar to our 50 year moral crusade against virtually any legal booze.  So just suggesting that folk consider reading the book as late summer reading, and then watch for the Ken Burns/PBS schedule this fall.

    Democrats benefited for 50 years for being the party which made booze legal again, but regulated and taxed the hell out of it, because they are Democrats afterall, and they like to build things with revenue.  Repeal was a bi-partisian issue, but led by progressive Democrats, and success served political fortunes of the the New Deal Repeal Generation.  

  •  The tides are turning (0+ / 0-)

    The neocons were shaking in their pants (excuse the pun) at the trends the past decades, since they know now they're steadily becoming a minority, particularly on this issue.  That's why they've been making it such an issue in the elections.  Hell, it's responsible for what happened in 2000 and 2004.  Someday same sex marriage will be legal in all fifty states, and folks like Sarah Palin and John Boehner would have been on the wrong side of history.

    Someday I'll be telling my grandchildren about growing up in a time where you were denied rights based on your sexual orientation... right after I'm done telling them when we once had ten consecutive Democratic presidents.

    "We cannot build our own future without helping others to build theirs." -President Bill Clinton

    by Scott M94 on Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 06:04:04 PM PDT

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