Lots of electoral and ballot box stuff awaits us tomorrow (a preview, for your convenience, can be found here). For tonight, however, we kick off the week with the Monday edition of the Wrap....
THE U.S. SENATE
AK-Sen: Mama Grizzly fires one last shot via robocall
While bragging on Facebook that her appointed steed in the race, attorney Joe Miller, is closing fast, Sarah Palin is trying to give Miller an extra boost at the line. She has cut a robocall for Miller, one which stresses his conservative street cred, and attacks Murkowski for, in Palin's words, having "voted with the Democrats more than any Republican up for reelection this year."
KY-Sen: Ron Paul indirectly takes his son to task on Cordoba House
Thanksgiving at the Paul House might have just become a bit more interesting. The iconoclastic Republican Congressman Ron Paul fired off a strong broadside directed at what he called the "Sunshine Patriots", people who "are all for freedom, as long as there’s no controversy and nobody is offended." One of those Sunshine Patriots, of course, would be his son Rand, who has joined a number of Republicans in trying to demagogue this particular issue.
PA-Sen: GOP pollster gives Toomey double-digit edge over Sestak
Joe Sestak got some good (and at least somewhat surprising) news today with the endorsement of respected former GOP Senator Chuck Hagel. But he got some less-than-good news in new data from Republican-friendly pollster We Ask America. The pollster is claiming a thirteen-point edge for Republican Patrick Toomey (48-35) over Sestak. One thing that grabs attention is the sample, which looks like it draws almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats. That would certainly not track with past polls, but W.A.A. would certainly not be the first pollster to see a far more Republican-skewed electorate than in previous cycles.
SD-Sen: Thune for Senate 2010 more about Thune for President 2012?
In this story may well lie the campaign finance story of the 2010 cycle. John Thune has already laid out $4.6 million in his 2010 re-election bid. Which would be a tidy sum even if he had a major-league opponent. The catch--not only does he not have a first-tier challenger...he doesn't have a challenger. From any party. Of any caliber. This is leading a lot of people to wonder if the telegenic Thune is laying some foundation in advance of entering the wide-open 2012 GOP presidential derby.
WV-Sen: Conservative third party to leap into special election?
As if Joe Manchin needed any more help in transitioning from the governor's mansion to the U.S. Senate in this Fall's special election, he might see the conservative opposition to his campaign split between two candidates. The Constitution Party of West Virginia has submitted petitions on behalf of candidate Jeff Becker, seeking his addition to the November ballot. The Mountain Party (an affiliate of the Green Party) already has a ballot line in November.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AZ-05: Well...maybe I don't have this locked down, after all
This is equal parts embarrassing and amusing: you might recall that last week, the Tuesday edition of the Wrap reported that former Maricopa County officer David Schweikert announced that he was going off the air. His rationale: he was so confident of victory that he thought it might be better to conserve his resources for November. That supreme confidence must have been shaken a tad, since Schweikert not only returned to the air, but he actually put in a bigger buy than the standing order his campaign cancelled when they declared victory.
AR-01: Democratic hold of open seat looks difficult, says poll
A lot of people already had the open seat in Arkansas' 1st district on the endangered list. Two new polls out today will do little to change that notion. One poll is a new public poll out today from Talk Business shows Republican Rick Crawford with a double-digit edge (48-32) over Democratic nominee Chad Causey. Green Party nominee Ken Adler is also drawing 4%. By way of rebuttal, team Causey released some of their own recent internal polling, which showed a closer race. However, that internal poll also gave Crawford the edge, albeit by a single point (41-40). They also, curiously, cited a previous internal poll in the race by Zata3 (Talk Business' previous pollster). That poll, from late July, showed Causey (with leaners) leading Crawford up 45-42. Which leads me to this question: why in the hell didn't Team Causey release that internal when they got it in late July?
IA-03: Will Zaun's past come back to haunt him?
Interesting piece today from Des Moines Register columnist Kathie Obradovich. As the Wrap noted last week, GOP nominee Brad Zaun (who is giving embattled Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell the race of his life) had a truly awful news week, with revelations about both his personal finances and personal life gracing the news (Desmoinesdem at Bleeding Heartland has a nice synopsis). Obradovich asked the question--will any of this stick? Obradovich went and asked some experts. The verdict: the revelations about Zaun's myriad of tax woes might linger for the balance of the campaign, and are much more likely to do so than the personal pecadilloes.
MO-04: Farm Bureau goes Republican for first time in over a decade
If one needed any more evidence that longtime Democratic Rep. Ike Skelton is seriously endangered, herein lies a critical piece. For the first time since 1996, the Missouri Farm Bureau have turned their collective back on Skelton, choosing to endorse his Republican opponent, Vicky Hartzler. The decision might have national roots--the district chairman for the Farm Bureau said part of the decision for the reversal from recent practice was a perceived shift in Skelton's voting record. In doing so, he cited Nancy Pelosi by name.
NM-01/NM-03: Clean sweep for climate deniers on GOP side of ballot
A great catch from the excellent state blog NM FBIHOP: it looks like with new statements which put GOP Congressional candidates Jon Barela (NM-01) and Tom Mullins (NM-03), the entire crew on the Republican side (add gubernatorial nominee Susana Martinez and NM-02 nominee Steve Pearce to the list) is uniformly in the climate change denial camp. Mullins gets the nod for my favorite climate denier quip of the day, arguing that cap-and-trade was tantamount to "Our federal government...attempting to regulate not just the breath we exhale, but is also infringing upon our very livelihood."
TX-23: Another day, another GOP internal poll showing a pickup
Is Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in trouble in the southwestern Texas 23rd district? A new internal poll from Republican challenger Quico Canseco says that trouble is, indeed, on the way for Rodriguez. The poll, from GOP pollsters OnMessage, gives Canseco a 43-37 lead over Rodriguez. OnMessage has been here before, giving Rodriguez a narrow lead earlier in the year.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
HI-Gov: Abercrombie has very narrow edge in Democratic primary
New public polling out of the state of Hawaii indicates that former Congressman Neal Abercrombie is the owner of a narrow lead over former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (49-44). This is the highest profile primary race in Hawaii, which closes out the primary season when the Aloha State heads to the polls on September 18th. The winner will be favored when he takes on Republican Lt. Governor Duke Aiona.
TX-Gov: Another attack line for White--"Part Time" Perry
This has been touched on in the Wrap before, but Burnt Orange Report revisits a topic that will certainly present itself to Democratic challenger Bill White. Will GOP Governor Rick Perry's famously soft work schedule be an issue in the Fall? B.O.R. raises an important point--what is Perry hiding? Either he is actually a career absentee from the job (as his schedule would seem to imply), or he is working, and simply not disclosing to the public what the heck he is doing.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
A fairly quiet day for the House of Ras. They (speaking of segues) hit on Texas, and still has Perry under 50%. The other race they hit today--the Alabama Senate race--is on absolutely no one's radar screen. For what it is worth--the Republican incumbent is well ahead, a surprise to absolutely no one.
AL-Sen: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) 60%, William Barnes (D) 28%
TX-Gov: Gov. Rick Perry (R) 49%, Bill White (D) 41%