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On a day when ballots are being tabulated in four states, there is also a bit of political news percolating in the other 46 states. And that, friends, is why there is a Wrap, even on a Primary Night...

THE U.S. SENATE

FL-Sen: Rubio returns to lead in three-way battle, says PPP
On a day when Kendrick Meek appears well on his way to achieving the Democratic nomination for the Senate in Florida, his renewed presence might have the side effect of propelling Marco Rubio back into the lead. At least that's the thesis of the crew over at PPP, whose new poll out of Florida puts Republican Marco Rubio back out front with 40% of the vote. Independent Charlie Crist sits at 32%, with Meek running third at 17%. One shift since the last time PPP came to town: Meek now leads among Democrats. In the previous PPP survey in the Sunshine State, Crist actually lead among Dems, and by a reasonably surprising spread (nine points).

WA-Sen: Rossi's primary challenger endorses him (no, not that one)
Republican Dino Rossi might have a ways to go to mend fences with his main opposition in the GOP primary last week, as Clint Didier made clear late last week that he cannot endorse Rossi (yet). Another also-ran in the GOP field, on the other hand, is willing to make amends: Rossi got the nod from Paul Akers, who got around 2.5% of the vote last week. Feel the reconciliation!

THE U.S. HOUSE

CA-52: The debate is on, and the hunger strike is off
The standoff over debates in the greater San Diego area is over, after quite the confrontation last weekend. For those who don't remember the story from last week's Wrap, Democrat Ray Lutz had embarked earlier in the month on a hunger strike to protest the unwillingness of Republican incumbent Duncan Hunter to participate in a debate. He was joined by the Libertarian candidate in the field, Mike Benoit, who joined Lutz in the hunger strike. They confronted Hunter at a local event Friday, accompanied by local media. Hunter agreed to a single debate on October 15th, and claimed he had planned to do that all along, anyway. With a debate in hand, Lutz and Benoit ended their hunger strike.

CO-03: GOP internal poll claims another Dem incumbent trailing
GOP pollsters Magellan Strategies have been quiet for a little while, but they rear their heads again, and what they found is a tad startling. Their internal poll for Republican Scott Tipton claims that the Republican has moved into modest lead over incumbent Democrat John Salazar (49-43). Magellan knows the terrain pretty well, having been Ken Buck's pollster during the GOP Senate primary.

LA-02: Richmond gets critical endorsement in advance of primary
With Louisiana's primary kicking off this Saturday, state legislator Cedric Richmond got arguably the most important endorsement a Democrat can receive in the New Orleans-based 2nd district. His website announced that New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu was endorsing Richmond, who is locked in a battle with fellow state legislator Juan LaFonta. The winner will battle Republican Rep. Anh Cao in November.

MI-01/MI-07: GOP gets big break in two competitive November battles
It could potentially be overturned by the courts, but for the moment, the Tea Party will not be on the ballot in two critical districts for November. The State Board of Canvassers deadlocked 2-to-2 on whether or not to permit Tea Party candidates Lonnie Lee Snyder (MI-01) and Danny Davis (MI-07) can be on the November ballot. Their candidacy were under challenge from the state GOP, who argued that their petition efforts were fraudulent. The GOP also argued that the Democrats had excessive involvement in the Tea Party's efforts.

NJ-06: Is longtime Dem endangered? GOP internal poll says he is
If this internal poll is to be believed (and the standard caveats, of course, apply), then the climate for Dems in this cycle might be even worse than has been often projected. A new internal poll, by National Research, for longshot Republican candidate Anna Little claims that she might not be a longshot, after all. The poll shows longtime Democratic incumbent Frank Pallone leading Little by just six points (40-34). This would be a stunning result, if true, in a district where Barack Obama won by 60-38 and where Pallone has won every election since 1992 with at least 57% of the vote.

NM-01: Previewing next weeks Albuquerque Journal numbers
An interesting piece out today from Joe Monahan looks ahead to next week's release of the Albuquerque Journal poll. With regard to the Albuquerque-based 1st district, Monahan appears privy to internal polling. And what he suspects is that "it is more likely that the race will show a several point gap and probably in [Rep. Martin] Heinrich's favor." This would stand in pretty stark contrast to last month's SurveyUSA poll in the race, which showed Jon Barela actually ahead of the freshman Democrat by six points.

OR-05: GOP internal shows...well, you get the picture
Take three on today's theme of hugely pessimistic polling for Democrats, courtesy of Republican pollsters. A new internal poll for GOP state legislator Scott Bruun claims that he has moved into a slight lead over freshman Democrat Kurt Schrader. The poll, from local GOP pollsters Moore Information, gives Bruun 41% of the vote, with Schrader sitting at 38%. Schrader easily won here in 2008 (54-38), against the deeply flawed GOP nominee, Mike Erickson. The district is somewhat swingy, though, as it was carried by both Barack Obama in 2008 and George W. Bush in 2004.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

HI-Gov: Look! It's a poll! With a Democrat leading!
One place where Democrats still hold pole position in the polls is Hawaii, where a new poll out today from Ward Research says that either Democratic contender (former Congressman Neal Abercrombie or former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann) would own a double-digit lead over the near-certain GOP standard bearer, Lt. Governor Duke Aiona. Hannemann, though trailing in the Democratic primary, actually does slightly better against Aiona (54-37) than does Abercrombie (53-41).

MD-Gov: New poll says Ehrlich a lock for GOP nod, trails in general
If a new poll from local pollsters Opinion Works is on the mark, Sarah Palin's endorsement of businessman Brian Murphy has rallied the political neophyte to a tiny little 62-point deficit (75-13) against former GOP Governor Robert Ehrlich. Ehrlich does not fare quite as well in a prospective general election contest, however, as he trails incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley by six points (47-41). Point of full disclosure: while the pollster (Opinion Works) is apparently a nonpartisan firm, the sponsoring entity for the poll (a nonprofit media outlet called Center Maryland) does have some past ties to Governor O'Malley.

NM-Gov: More Monahan--are the Dems trailing in this race, as well?
Earlier in the Wrap, I alluded to a piece from New Mexico blogger Joe Monahan, where he said internal polling in the New Mexico 1st hinted that Democrat Martin Heinrich likely has a slight edge there. The story, however, appears to be a bit different in the gubernatorial election, where Monahan writes:

Democrats are bracing for a weekend ABQ Journal poll that many of them think will show Republican Susana Martinez leading Diane Denish by three to six points. But the late August poll being done this week and to be published Sunday is only the beginning. And now there is a new Democratic narrative popping up on the radar screens of La Politica--that Martinez and the R's will get their peak performance this week and that we are headed for a photo finish.

It is true that not too many gloves have been laid on Martinez thus far, although that began to change last week, when incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Richardson blasted Martinez on the issue of education. This led to an odd reaction from Martinez, who challenged Richardson to a debate. The catch: Martinez hasn't locked down debate plans with the person she is actually running against: state Lt. Governor Diane Denish.

NY-Gov: Paladino to debate with...a chicken?
While one debate standoff was peaceably resolved in Southern California, another one rages unabated in the Empire State, and it might start to get ridiculous sooner rather than later. Underdog Carl Paladino had challenged Rick Lazio to a debate in Syracuse on August 30th, even threatening that he would debate a man in a chicken costume (which has been shadowing Lazio) if Lazio was a no-show. With that kind of gauntlet tossed down, Lazio agreed to an appearance on August 30th. At a tea party forum. In Manhattan.

For what it's worth, my money is on the dude in the chicken costume.

WY-Gov: Indie candidate seeks slot of November ballot
A retired surgeon and rancher has submitted petitions to place his Independent candidacy on the November ballot for Governor of Wyoming. His name is Taylor Haynes, and his candidacy is expected to go after GOP nominee Matt Mead from the right, as he promises to be "the most conservative candidate" in the race. If successful, Haynes will be the first candidate to appear on the gubernatorial ballot in Wyoming as a nonpartisan candidate since 1958.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

The House of Ras dropped three polls today. Democrats will probably howl the most at the one out of Missouri, but the big story here is the relatively small changes in Ras' numbers from session to session (although they do have Illinois' Democratic Governor, Pat Quinn, moving back within single digits).

IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 46%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 37%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 51%, Robin Carnahan (D) 40%
OR-Gov: Chris Dudley (R) 45%, John Kitzhaber (D) 44%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 08:00 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  CNN projects RICK SCOTT winner in FL (4+ / 0-)

    a goddamned bona-fide criminal got the GOP nomination..how poetic.

  •  Well, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jim J, mirandasright, flhiii88

    Meek probably couldn't win in either a two way or a three way race, and Crist and Meek are probably going to split votes and give it to Rubio.

    The only practical way to defeat Rubio would be a Crist-Rubio two way race.

    •  Progress in a Meek Crist Rubio race (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ndrwmls10

      While Progressives might bemoan what Democrats have become, I think it vital to realize that without candidates such as Kendrick Meek, there is no Progress!  Should we not advance awareness for our needs and desires, soon-to-be United States Senator Meek, will not be able to address these.  As a Political party we choose to Progress or merely be defined as Democrats.  Our actions speak volumes!

      Kendrick Meek, I trust do, will, as he has done.  More often than not, he has spoken and truly worked for the greater good of the common people.  The problem, as I see it, is that the people frequently become so singular in focus that they forfeit even the slightest reform . . .  and the reformer.  

      Please Progressives; let us remember we create what comes.  Peace, shared prosperity, educational and environmental policies begin with us!  If we bicker and bemoan, become ideologues, forget our more principled priorities, then, regression will be our path.

      I invite review and reflections . . Progressives. Meek.Greene. Strangers in a Strange Place
      or at Daily Kos Progressives. Meek.Greene. Strangers in a Strange Place

      It is only the giving that makes us what [who] we are. - Ian Anderson. Betsy L. Angert
      BeThink

      by Bcgntn on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 08:20:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  that NJ Pallone looks just like generic NJ Dem (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    beltane

    Generic polls of incumbent NJ Democratic districts show them ahead but below 50%. (Same for incumbent Republicans for that matter.)  A lead is a lead, I don't think there's much reason to worry about undecideds since A) Jersey and B) you can easily put the incumbent below 50% by including those who won't vote.

    See:

    http://eagletonpoll.blogspot.com/

    Across all [NJ] districts held by Democrats, voters support a generic Democrat over a Republican 41 percent to 28 percent.

    for the most recent generic poll

    and an older Blue Jersye post for other generic polls

    http://www.bluejersey.com/...

  •  Meek will be a disaster for Dems (7+ / 0-)
    Florida is an excellent opportunity to sink the Teabagger who represents the most serious credible threat to us in the future, Rubio. The man to sink him is Crist, not Meek.

    I'm sorry Dems are starting to move to Meek, he is a nobody and a sure loser.

    •  Really? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      roycej, mdmslle

      Compared to the slime ball "closet case" Crist. He's done nothing for me.  In fact he has actively worked against me. He doesn't support Marriage Equality or Same Sex Adoption. So I should just give up support of the person who does, Meek, because he's a "nobody".

      Support Progressive Candidates!

      by ndrwmls10 on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 08:26:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  By "me" I mean me and (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdmslle

      my people (LGBT).

      Support Progressive Candidates!

      by ndrwmls10 on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 08:26:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm not sure that support is hard (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, mjd in florida

      I voted for him today

      I'm not in the bag for him in the general.

      My husband voted for him today. He's already decided on Crist and there's NO talking him out of it. My husband has been a democrat 30 years. Me, less than a year.

      I wouldn't panic just yet. Meek's numbers (I think) may take a dip now just as Rubio's numbers took a bump today but I think will settle back down into the 35% range.

      Crist is a very good politician who I think can quite tread that fine line he'll be forced to tread. I heard an interview with him today on the local news. He really hit my sweet spot when he said "I represent the ideal that good ideas can come from both parties...blah blah." I happen to agree with him. And that attitude will go very far in a state like FL where most dems are not far left and believe it or not, most republicans are not far right.  Rubio will come off as crazy righty and crist will do his very best to paint meek as a crazy lefty. He'll accuse them both of voting all the time according to some piece of paper that says THIS IS HOW WE VOTE rather than looking at something and voting for what's best.  He's got a very powerful arguement. Crist didn't just this year start voting against party. It's a long history with him and he's got the actions to prove it.

      Meek will not gain much more support, IMO and of those who are supporting him, IMO many of them are politically active enough and will make a last minute assessment of whether its too dangerous to stay in the Meek camp.

      Don't tell me what you believe. Tell me what you do and I will tell you what you believe. h/t MeteorBlades

      by mdmslle on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 08:39:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Meek could hand the Senator Seat to Rubio (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, mirandasright

      Meek is very far behind.  Votes going for Meek will benefit Rubio in a 3 Way Race.  Rubio would be a complete disaster.  He is like a young Jim DeMint.

  •  Meek can take this all the way (0+ / 0-)

    Hopefully Democrats can see that now.

    Please check out my blog Rantings From Florida. Someone has to do it.

    by Southernlib on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 08:12:43 PM PDT

  •  ... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    esquimaux, mdmslle, flhiii88

    Ahn Cao, or "Joseph" to those constituents who balk at the notion of voting for a guy with an unamurcan name. See also: Jindal, "Bobby"

  •  NJ-06 makes no sense (0+ / 0-)

    as a recent poll on NJ-07 next door, which was drawn as an R-leaning district, is close. I can't see 6th Dist voters (far more Dem than CD-07) being so anti-Pallone, unless there's a mass anti-incumbent trend among Indies in NJ, in which case Chris Smith should be in trouble, too!

  •  Oy... if Salazar is losing... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cederico, Wary, cordobes, asdfghjkl

    ... on Election Night, we're looking at a disaster in the House.

  •  FL-Senate ... just watched Greene's concession (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, flhiii88

    speech. When he conceded he endorsed Meek and pledged to donate the maximum allowed by law to Meek's campaign. He warned that Rubio and Christ are dangerous for Floridians, saying:

    Rubio and Christ, they'll turn back the clock on everything. From Social Security to Medicare. From a woman's right to choose to the most fundamental and basic liberties that we enjoyed in our society.

    Color me impressed. After receiving daily mailings, enduring endless negative television ads and telephone messages left on our answering machine, I was pleasantly surprised at this.

    Great minds discuss ideas; Average minds discuss events; Small minds discuss people. -- Eleanor Roosevelt

    by hungrycoyote on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 08:19:44 PM PDT

  •  The Oregon Gov. number surprises me (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    esquimaux, PZinOR

    With Rasmussen's GOP house effect I would have bet they would have Dudley out a lot more. Of course, by rights, Dudley should be in single-digits in a head-to-head matchup on the merits with Kitzhaber.

    cheers,

    Mitch Gore

    Who is a Tea Partier? Someone who listens to Glenn Beck. Who's an anti-Tea Partier? Someone who understands Glenn Beck

    by Lestatdelc on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 08:21:42 PM PDT

  •  I'm in OH. Yet, I want HI to have good stewards. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Wary, bythesea

    Go Dems.

    "They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

    by JugOPunch on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 08:22:55 PM PDT

    •  Well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JugOPunch

      not having nutjob assholes blowing horns to defeat civil unions would be a start.  One of the most obnoxious things I've ever read about in a seemingly sane state.

      •  BTW. -name redacted by me- -place holder-- wife (0+ / 0-)

        and I were in Maui. Gorgeous place! We went every where.

        The tops and the bottoms. Loved every moment.

        (when I mention my wife, I use her name. Except in open forums)

        "They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

        by JugOPunch on Thu Aug 26, 2010 at 07:49:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Holy shit! (0+ / 0-)

    Is anyone watching Louie on FX right now?

  •  As long as Cuomo's way up I'm voting chicken NT (0+ / 0-)

    If you didn't like the news today, go out and make some of your own.

    by jgnyc on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 08:24:14 PM PDT

  •  Proposed Meek campaign slogans: (0+ / 0-)

    We don't need more Republicans in DC, even if they are flip-floppers.

    Did no one tell Charley that Arlen Specter already tried this?

    "Well, yeah, the Constitution is worth it if you can succeed." -Nancy Pelosi, 6/29/07.

    by nailbender on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 08:25:24 PM PDT

  •  NM Governor & NM-01 (0+ / 0-)

    Whatever blogger Joe Monahan writes about NM politics should always be taken with a grain of salt. He's a spinner for various factions although he does have a lot of knowledge.

    There was another glove laid on GOP candidate Susana Martinez at last week's education debate. She's been caught on video supporting private school vouchers but is weaseling on that point now, for starters. She came off as a prosecutor more than a candidate and had very little to offer in the way of detailed policy proposals. She's all bumpersticker. Her main strength with the electorate seems to be -- I hate to say it -- her Hispanic last name. There is definitely some support for her within NM's Democratic Hispanic community, especially up north, essentially because the idea of first Latina governor is appealing and people are down on Gov. Richardson who has been pummeled by the media on pay to play even though 2 grand juries couldn't indict him. Diane Denish was Lt. Gov. during his 8 years in office. Even though the position holds very little power here, Martinez is trying to say she ran the state and is responsible for our economic problems.

    I thought you might like to see my post on the debate, which includes a video of the event.

    Also, check out Rep. Martin Heinrich's (NM-01) first TV ad, which takes a humorous and positive tone. There's a "Hispanic" factor in this race too, with GOP challenger Jon Barela trying to garner Dem Hispanic votes. So far, Heinrich has a significant fundraising lead and thus is on the air early.

    Visit my blog DemocracyForNewMexico: NM grassroots politics and activism

    by barbwire on Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 10:04:06 PM PDT

  •  Dems: Cut your losses and vote for Crist in FL (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cmize, licorice114

    Meek doesn't have a prayer and if you vote for him, you're throwing your vote away and actually making it possible for teabagger Rubio to win...

  •  FL-SEN: For shits and giggles: (0+ / 0-)

    When do those who rag on Indies with the usual "Nader gave us Bush!" meme stay intellectually consistent and push for the Democrat to leave the race so he doesn't play spoiler and hand us a Teabagger?

    Just thought I'd put that out there for the fun of it...

    More and Better Democrats

    by SJerseyIndy on Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 05:15:13 PM PDT

  •  Margin of Error? (0+ / 0-)

    Where's the margin of error on these polls? An alleged six-point lead could equal barely a squeak given a margin of error, which any honest poll would, of course, include.

    And even if a poll looks good for your candidate, don't stop working for your candidate of choice. Polls are not exactly reliable.

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