I predict that after the upcoming 2010 elections, the Washington State Senate will have 29 Democrats and 20 Republicans. The State House of Representatives will have 59 Democrats and 39 Republicans. I’ll toss in a fudge factor of plus or minus two. Or three. Maybe four at the most.
I know that I’m sometimes long-winded and over-explanatory, so feel free to skip over the boring parts as you read my analysis below the fold.
Some Background About The WA Legislature
Washington state is divided into 49 legislative districts (LDs), which are currently based on the 2000 Census. The legislative boundaries will be redrawn by a bipartisan commission after the 2010 Census results are released.
Voters in each LD elect one state Senator to a four-year term, and two state representatives (at large within the district) who serve two-year terms. As a general rule, Democrats tend to live in urban areas and/or west of the Cascade Mountains. Republicans tend to be rural and/or east of the Cascades. The parties break down as follows:
WA Legislature
49 Senators: 31 Democrats (63%), 18 Republicans (37%)
98 Representatives: 61 Democrats (62%) , 37 Republicans (38%)
Half of the Senate seats will be filled this year (including 24 for regular four-year terms and 1 special election for an unexpired two-year term). All 98 seats in the House are up for election in November.
If you want to see a map of the districts and the recent Primary results, click here.
The Weird New Top-Two Primary Election
We had our 2010 Primary about a week and a half ago (August 17). The state doesn’t ask voters to choose their party preference. In Washington, there’s no such thing as a registered Democrat or registered Republican.
In the Primary election (conducted by mail, incidentally), voters got a list of candidates for each office and voted for one. It’s possible to vote for a Democrat for one elective office and a Republican for another. The top two winners then advance to the General election, which means that in some LDs, there might be two Democrats or two Republicans on the final ballot in November (as you'll see below).
Candidates Choose Their Party Label – And They Can Lie
The vast majority of candidates choose to identify with either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Dino Rossi (who’s running against Patty Murray for U.S. Senate) listed "Prefers Republican Party" this year. But two years ago, when he was running for Governor, his choice was "Prefers G.O.P. Party" perhaps because he was embarrassed of the Republican label.
But nobody checks to see if a candidate’s beliefs are consistent with the party listed. And, in fact, it would make sense to lie about your party if you live in a district that would never elect a Democrat or never elect a Republican.
For example, my U.S. Congressman is Jim McDermott and I live in an overwhelmingly Democratic district that loves McDermott – our Congressman for Life. In the recent Primary, McDermott had five challengers: 3 Democrats, 1 No Party Preference, and 1 Independent. The top-two winners, who will appear on the ballot in November are McDermott (Democrat), who got 80% of the vote, and Bob Jeffers-Schroder (Independent), who got 6%. I suspect that Republicans in the district voted for the Independent guy and the No Party guy. And what’s funny is that Jeffers-Schroder is arguably to the left of McDermott. He’s pretty much a Green guy who wants a big carbon tax, to be distributed to poor people. McDermott will win, but even if the other guy wins, I won’t complain.
Some people choose strange party labels. As I sorted through the Primaries for the various legislative districts, I noticed at least one candidate for each of the following labels:
Bull Moose Party, Conservative Party, Constitution Party, Demo Party, G.O.P. Party (3 candidates who used periods), GOP Party (2 candidates who didn’t), Green Party, Happiness Party, Independent Dem. Party, Independent Party (9 candidates), Lower Taxes Party, Neither Party, Progressive Dem Party, Prolife Democrat Party, Reluctantly R. Party, SeniorSide Party, States No Party Preference (7 candidates)
Prolife Democrat Party? I'm pretty sure that guy was a Republican pretending to be a Democrat. And I feel sorry for the guy in the "Reluctantly R. Party." Plus, who wouldn't like to be a member of the Happiness Party?
My Prediction For The Washington State Senate
The State Senate is currently split between 31 Democrats and 18 Republicans.
Here are the solid and fairly safe seats in the Senate:
25 Safe Democrats
12 Democrats up for election in 2012, not running in 2010. Legislative Districts (LD): 1, 3, 10, 11, 19, 22, 23, 24, 25, 27, 40, 49
3 Democrats running unopposed. LD: 34, 43, 46
0 races where both candidates are Democrats. LD: --
10 Democrats running in fairly safe Democratic districts (* = incumbent): LD: *21, *26, 29, *30, 32, *33, *35, *36, *37, 38
17 Safe Republicans
12 Republicans up for election in 2012, not running in 2010. LD: 2, 4, 5, 9, 12, 14, 16, 17, 18, 20, 28, 39
2 Republicans running unopposed. LD: 13, 15
2 races where both candidates are Republicans. LD: 8, 31
1 Republican running in fairly safe Republican district (* = incumbent):
LD: *7
Definition: I arbitrarily decided that if a district elected a candidate by 10 or more points in the last election (better than 55%-45%), then it was a fairly safe district for that party.
Of 49 Senate seats, I’d say there are 25 pretty safe Democrats and 17 pretty safe Republicans. That leaves 7 State Senate races that I’m calling tossups. They could go either way. In the spreadsheet below, the righthand column gives the Primary votes from 8/17/2010 and the percentage. In the far lefthand column are the results from the last general election (in terms of what percentage went to the Democrat). I should point out that the August 17 Primary probably drew a higher turnout of Republicans (because of the U.S. Senate Race, where Republicans were enthusiastically voting for either the Teabagger Clint Didier or the Sleazy Mainstream Moneybag Republican Dino Rossi). I think the Primary got a lower than normal number of Democrats because there weren’t any major races featuring nasty fights between Democrats. Remember that Republicans voted in higher than usual numbers.
These are the 7 tossups:
I’m gonna say the Democrats win 4 and lose 3 of these. So my prediction is this: Next year the WA Senate will have 29 Democrats and 20 Republicans. Slightly less than the current 31-18.
My Prediction For The Washington State House
The House is currently split 61 Democrats to 37 Republicans. Since each district elects two Representatives, I’m using "33/1" to mean District 33, position 1, while "33/2" means District 33, position 2. Got it?
Here are the solid and the relatively safe seats in the House:
47 Safe Democrats
6 Democrats running unopposed. Legislative Districts (LD): 33/1, 33/2, 36/1, 37/1, 43/1, 46/1
3 races where both candidates are Democrats. LD: 27/1, 34/2, 37/2
38 Democrats running in fairly safe Democratic districts (* = incumbent): LD: 3/1, *3/2, *11/1, *11/2, *17/1, 17/2, *21/1, 21/2, 22/1, *22/2, *23/1, *23/2, *24/1, 24/2, *27/2, *28/1, *28/2, 29/1, *29/2, *30/1, *31/2, 32/1, *32/2, *34/1, *35/1, *35/2, *36/2, *38/1, *38/2, *40/2, *42/2, *43/2, *45/2, *46/2, *47/2, *48/1, *48/2, *49/1
29 Safe Republicans
15 Republicans running unopposed. LD: 4/1, 4/2, 6/1, 7/1, 7/2, 8/2, 9/1, 10/1, 12/1, 13/1, 14/2, 16/2, 18/2, 20/2, 39/2
7 races where both candidates are Republicans. LD: 2/2, 9/2, 12/2, 13/2, 14/1, 16/1, 31/1
7 Republicans running in fairly safe Republican districts (* = incumbent): LD: *2/1, *5/1, *15/1, 15/2, 18/1, *20/1, *39/1
Definition: I arbitrarily decided (as I did above) that if a district elected a candidate by 10 or more points in the last election (better than 55%-45%), then it was a fairly safe district for that party.
47 Democrats have safe House seats and 29 Republicans. Which leaves 22 races to be decided.
In the spreadsheet below, the winners of the top two Primary are bold and the losers aren’t. The righthand column shows the Primary votes from last week and the percentage. In the far lefthand column are the results from the last election (in terms of what percentage went to the Democrat – and 100% means the candidate was unopposed and won all the votes). I should point out that the recent Primary probably drew a higher turnout of Republicans (as explained above).
Here are the 22 tossup districts:
The top two candidates, who will be on the ballot in November, are listed first and bolded. The losers aren’t. Incumbents have an asterisk before their name.
I’m gonna be fairly conservative and say the Democrats win 12 and lose 10 of these. So the 2011 WA House will have 59 Democrats and 39 Republicans. Slightly less than the current 61-37.
Other Issues
In the 2010 elections, we’ll be voting on a bunch of initiatives in WA. Unfortunately, this diary has become too long. I’ll have to cover them in a future DKos diary. Plus, I promise to say something about re-districting.
If you’ve read everything this far, thanks for putting up with my blathering.
And I'd like to give a great big wet kiss to the WA Secretary of State for putting the election results on the internet and making them exportable to spreadsheets. Thanks for not making me type in all the numbers.
If you live in WA, some of my previous diaries about local politics are here:
7/26/10 WA-SEN: Ignorant Teabagger Didier Zinged By Wise Columnist
7/23/10 WA Congressional Races
1/16/10 Shining a Light On The Anti-Gay Agenda
12/19/09 WA-08: Can The Democrats Oust Reichert?
9/26/09 Seattle Anti-Beck Protest (Photo Diary)