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The next step in this series is to check the strength of the senator M Udall as the third democrat from Colorado here, against the former governor W Owens. This hypothetical contest is like always in this series for a generic highest level race (senate or governor). Generic questions make we can compare the results of the different diaries.

The chance of see this hypothesis becoming real seems not very high. If W Owens would like to run for the senate, the seat of M Udall was open in 2008 after W Allard decides retire, and this year he has the chance of run against an appointed incumbent in a year where republicans are favored. That mean W Owens lose two good opportunities for become senator in 2008 and 2010. Some people think he would be vulnerable by issues in his private life.

W Owens begins his political career as state house representative 82-88 and as state senator 88-94. He wins his first statewide race in 1994, serving as State Treasurer since 1995 until 1999. W Owens run not for the reelection in 1998 and bid for governor, becoming a popular governor since 1999 until 2007, when he leaves the office affected by the term limits.

I remember and update from previous diaries the structure of this series. I use schematic language for give the biographical data for keep the maximum information and for keep the series under the limits for the number of characters for a diary in Dailykos.

First we can look to the different states.

RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER LEVEL OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS

  1. Maine: 2/2 Senate.
  1. Nevada: 1/2 Senate. Governor. 1/3 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Iowa: 1/2 Senate. 2/5 House. 2 Statewide officers.
  1. Massachusetts: 1/2 Senate.
  1. New Hampshire: 1/2 Senate.
  1. Hawaii: Governor. 1/2 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. New Jersey: Governor. 5/13 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Minnesota: Governor. 3/8 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. California: Governor. 19/53 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Vermont: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Connecticut: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. (Without include J Lieberman).
  1. Rhode Island: Governor.
  1. Delaware: 1/1 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Michigan: 7/15 House. 2 Statewide Officers. MI Senate majority.
  1. Wisconsin: 3/8 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Pennsylvania: 7/19 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer. PA Senate majority.
  1. Illinois: 7/19 House.
  1. Washington: 3/9 House. 2 Statewide Officers.
  1. Colorado: 2/7 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Oregon: 1/5 House.
  1. Maryland: 1/8 House.
  1. New York: 2/29 House.
  1. New Mexico: 1 Statewide Officer.

For national level: With a consolidated blue ticket we can look to republican side.

REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM BLUE STATES BY SERIOUSNESS.

  1. Timothy James Pawlenty: MN 1960 Governor of MN 03-11.
  1. George Elmer Pataki: NY 1945 Governor of NY 95-06.
  1. Willard Mitt Romney: MI MA 1947 Governor of MA 03-07. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 94.
  1. Rudolph William Louis Giuliani: NY 1944 Mayor of New York 94-01. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 00.
  1. Gary Earl Johnson: ND NM 1953 Governor of New Mexico 95-03.
  1. Richard John Santorum: VA PA 1958 Senator from PA 95-07. USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 06.

All they would be special level political targets for the democrats.

But we will see all they in his home state and we will have better reference about they.

For state level:

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

Some persons what hold (now or in the past) one of the offices with highest precedence at national level are over this series. Examples: B Obama, W Clinton, J Biden, N Pelosi or H Clinton. They will not be included in the polls for their home (blue) state. In this box will be orange emphasized the democrats included in the series by hold not still one of the highest level offices in the country but placed by the voters over the state level politicians in his/her home state.

CO0: Diana Louisse DeGette: JAP CO 1957 USHRep 97- .
VT0: Howard Brush Dean III: NY VT 1948 Governor of Vermont 91-03. Lieutenant Governor of VT 87-91. Lost for President in 04.

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

RI1: John Frances Reed: RI 1949 Senator from Rhode Island 97- . USHRep 91-97.
WI1: Russell Dana Feingold: WI 1953 Senator from Wisconsin 93- .
CT1: Richard Blumenthal: NY CT 1946 CT Attorney General 90- .
VT1: Bernard Sanders (Ind): NY VT 1941 Senator from Vermont 07- . USHRep 91-07. Lost for Senate 72 and 74. Lost for Governor 72, 76 and 86. Lost for House 88.
WA1: Patricia Lynn Murray: WA 1950 Senator from Washington 93- .
CA1: Barbara Levy Boxer: NY CA 1940 Senator from California 93- . USHRep 83-93. Lost for Marin County Board of Supervisors 72.
IL1: Richard Joseph Durbin: IL 1944 Senator from Illinois 97- . USHRep 83-97.
DE1: Edward E Kaufman: PA DE 1939 Senator from Delaware 09- .
MA1: John Forbes Kerry: CO MA 1943 D Presidential Nominee 04. Senator from Massachusetts 85- . Lieutenant Governor of MA 83-85. Lost for President 04. Lost for House 72.
MI1: Carl Milton Levin: MI 1934 Senator from Michigan 79- .
HI1: Daniel Ken Inouye: HI 1924 Senator from Hawaii 63- . USHRep 59-63.
NH1: Cynthia Jeanne Shaheen: MO NH 1947 Senator from New Hampshire 09- . Governor of New Hampshire 97-03. Lost for senate 02.
NJ1: Robert Menendez: NY NJ 1954 Senator from New Jersey 06- . USHRep 93-06. Lost for Mayor of Union City 82.
MN1: Alan Stuart Franken: NY MN 1951 Senator from Minnesota 09- .
PA1: Robert Patrick Casey Jr: PA 1960 Senator from Pennsylvania 07- . PA State Treasurer 05-07. PA State Auditor 97-05. Lost for Governor 02.
CO1: John Wright Hickenlooper: PA CO 1952 Mayor of Denver 03- .
IA1: Thomas Richard Harkin: IA 1939 Senator from Iowa 85- . USHRep 75-85. Lost for President 92. Lost for House 72.
NV1: Harry Mason Reid: NV 1939 Senator from Nevada 87- . USHRep 83-87. Lieutenant Governor of NV 71-75. Lost for Senate 74.
ME1: Chellie M Pingree: MN ME 1955 USHRep 09- . Lost for Senate 02.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00.000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01.429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02.857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04.286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05.714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07.142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08.571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10.000 ---

ME: C Pingree (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 25 votes = 03.267 => Leans Republican
ME: C Pingree (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.529 => Leans Republican
IA: T Harkin (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 13 votes = 03.846 => Leans Republican
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 14 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 14 votes = 05.357 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 17 votes = 05.588 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs C Smith (R) after 25 votes = 06.533 => Leans Democratic
IA: T Harkin (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 18 votes = 06.574 => Leans Democratic
ME: C Pingree (D) vs P Mills (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic

Other special diaries about the more competitive elections in 2010 and about the possible new candidates for 2012 or 2014 elections:

DE: E Kaufman (D) vs M Castle (R) after 20 votes = 05.167 => Toss-Up
NV: H Reid (D) vs S Angle (R) after 50 votes = 06.000 => Leans Democratic
CA: B Boxer (D) vs C Fiorina (R) after 53 votes = 06.603 => Leans Democratic
WA: P Murray (D) vs D Rossi (R) after 19 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. O Snowe
  1. S Collins
  1. C Grassley
  1. B Krolicki

All they would be special level political targets for the democrats.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

RI2: Sheldon Whitehouse: RI 1955 Senator from Rhode Island 07- . RI Attorney General 99-03. Lost for Governor 02.
PA2: Joseph A Sestak: PA 1951 USHRep 07- .
VT2: Patrick Joseph Leahy: VT 1940 Senator from Vermont 75- .
DE2: Thomas Richard Carper: WV DE 1947 Senator from Delaware 01- . Governor of Delaware 93-01. USHRep 83-93. DE State Treasurer 77-82.
NH2: John H Lynch: MA NH 1952 Governor of New Hampshire 05- .
MN2: Keith Maurice Ellison: MI MN 1963 USHRep 07- .
CT2: Susan Bysiewicz: CT 1961 CT Secretary of State 99- . Lost for Governor 10.
CA2: Debra Bowen: IL CA 1955 CA Secretary of State 07- .
IL2: Lisa Madigan: IL 1966 IL Attorney General 03- .
CO2: Kenneth Lee Salazar: CO 1955 Secretary of Interior 09- . Senator from Colorado 05-09. CO Attorney General 99-05.
WA2: Maria E Cantwell: IN WA 1958 Senator from Washington 01- . USHRep 93-95. Lost for House 94.
HI2: Neil Abercrombie: NY HI 1938 USHRep 86-87 91-10. Lost for Senate 70. Lost for House 86.
MA2: Joseph Patrick Kennedy: MA 1952 USHRep 87-99.
WI2: Thomas Mark Barrett: WI 1953 USHRep 93-03. Mayor of Milwaukee 04- . Lost for Governor 02. Lost for WI state house 82.
MI2: Deborah Ann Greer Stabenow: MI 1950 Senator from Michigan 01- . USHRep 97-01. Lost for Governor 94. Lost for Lieutenant Governor of MI 94.
NV2: Frankie Sue Del Papa: NV 1949 NV Secretary of State 87-91. NV Attorney General 91-03.
IA2: Thomas James Vilsack: PA IA 1950 Secretary of Agriculture 09- . Governor of Iowa 99-07. Lost for President 08.  
ME2: John Elias Baldacci: ME 1955 Governor of ME 03-11. USHRep 95-03.
NJ2: Richard James Codey: NJ 1946 Governor of New Jersey 04-06. Acting governor of New Jersey 02-02. President of NJ Senate 02-08 08-10.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

IA: T Vilsack (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 15 votes = 03.444 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 11 votes = 03.485 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 32 votes = 03.649 => Leans Republican
NJ: R Codey (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 14 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs S Collins (R) after 21 votes = 04.365 => Toss-Up
IA: T Vilsack (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 20 votes = 04.667 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 04.697 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Smith (R) after 18 votes = 04,722 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Christie (R) after 17 votes = 05.196 => Toss-Up
DE: T Carper (D) vs M Castle (R) after 08 votes = 05.208 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 11 votes = 05.303 => Toss-Up
PA: J Sestak (D) vs T Corbett (R) after 22 votes = 05.303 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
MI: D Stabenow (D) vs J Engler (R) after 21 votes = 05.397 => Toss-Up
PA: J Sestak (D) vs M Schweiker (R) after 19 votes = 05.526 => Toss-Up
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 06.319 => Leans Democratic
VT: P Leahy (D) vs J Douglas (R) after 20 votes = 07.167 => Likely Democratic
CO: K Salazar (D) vs W Allard (R)

Other special diaries about the more competitive elections in 2010 and about the possible new candidates for 2012 or 2014 elections:

WI: T Barrett (D) vs S Walker (R) after 24 votes = 05.069 => Toss-Up
CA: D Bowen (D) vs M Bono Mack (R) after 27 votes = 05.185 => Toss-Up
MN: K Ellison (D) vs T Pawlenty (R) after 33 votes = 05.556 => Toss-Up
PA: J Sestak (D) vs P Toomey (R) after 19 votes = 05.614 => Toss-Up
MA: J Kennedy (D) vs S Brown (R) after 30 votes = 06.278 => Leans Democratic
IL: L Madigan (D) vs P Roskam (R) after 20 votes = 06.500 => Leans Democratic
CT: S Bysiewicz (D) vs J Lieberman (Ind) after 30 votes = 07.167 => Likely Democr
HI: N Abercrombie (D) vs J Aiona (R) after 14 votes = 08.929 => Safe Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. B Sandoval
  1. F LoBiondo
  1. P Mills (teabagged)
  1. T Branstad
  1. R Frelinghuysen
  1. C Smith

All they would be special level political targets for the democrats.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

WI3: Tammy Suzanne Green Baldwin: WI 1962 USHRep 99- .
RI3: Frank T Caprio: RI 1966 RI General Treasurer 07- .
HI3: Eric Ken Shinseki: HI 1942 Secretary of Veteran Affairs 09- .
CA3: Edmund Gerald Brown: CA 1938 Governor of California 75-83. CA Secretary of State 71-75. CA Attorney General 07-11. Lost for President 76 80 and 92. Lost for Senate 82.
WA3: Christine O'Grady Gregoire: MI WA 1947 Governor of Washington 05- . WA Attorney General 93-05.
IL3: Janice D Schakowsky: IL 1944 USHRep 99- .
MN3: Amy Jean Klobuchar: MN 1960 Senator from Minnesota 07- .
MA3: Michael Everett Capuano: MA 1952 USHRep 99- . Lost for senate 10.
CT3: Edward Miner Lamont: DC CT 1954 Lost for Senate 06.
MI3: Jennifer Mulhern Granholm: CANA MI 1959 Governor of Michigan 03- . MI Attorney General 99-03.
DE3: Jack A Markell: DE 1960 Governor of Delaware 09- . DE State Treasurer 99-09.
CO3: Mark Emery Udall: AZ CO 1950 Senator from Colorado 09- . USHRep 99-09.
VT3: Deborah Markowitz: NY VT 1961 VT Secretary of State 99- .
PA3: Patrick Joseph Murphy: PA 1973 USHRep 07- .
IA3: Chester John Culver: DC IA 1966 Governor 07- . IA Secretary of State 99-07.
ME3: Michael Herman Michaud: ME 1955 USHRep 03- . President ME Senate 00-02.
NH3: Paul Hodes: NY NH 1951 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
NV3: Robert Joseph Miller: IL NV 1945 Governor of Nevada 89-99. Lieutenant Governor of NV 87-89.
NJ3: William Warren Bradley: MO NJ 1943 Senator from New Jersey 79-97. Lost for President 00.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

NJ: W Bradley (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 11 votes = 03.030 => Leans Republican
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 15 votes = 03.222 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.431 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 29 votes = 03.506 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs D Heller (R) after 09 votes = 03.519 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 28 votes = 03.571 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Smith (R) after 11 votes = 03.636 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 03.788 => Leans Repub
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.048 => Leans Republican
DE: J Markell (D) vs M Castle (R) after 14 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 08 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 24 votes = 04.375 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Christie (R) after 20 votes = 04.583 => Toss-Up
CO: M Udall (D) vs W Allard (R) after 12 votes = 04.722 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs T Corbett (R) after 06 votes = 04.722 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 07 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 14 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs M Schweiker (R) after 09 votes = 04.815 => Toss-Up
VT: D Markowitz (D) vs J Douglas (R) after 12 votes = 04.861 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs J Engler (R) after 13 votes = 04.872 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs P Toomey (R) after 19 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs M Bono Mack (R) after 17 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
ME: M Michaud (D) vs J McKernan (R) after 07 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs F Upton (R) after 11 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs S Garrett (R) after 13 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
IA: C Culver (D) vs D Vaudt (R) after 17 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs P Roskam (R) after 17 votes = 05.098 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs C Miller (R) after 14 votes = 05.119 => Toss-Up
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs P Ryan (R) after 14 votes = 05.119 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs S Lowden (R) after 11 votes = 05.152 => Toss-Up
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs A Schock (R) after 19 votes = 05.175 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs T Platts (R) after 09 votes = 05.185 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs J Ensign (R) after 21 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
WA: C Gregoire (D) vs C McMorris Rodgers (R) after 14 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs J Sensenbrenner (R) after 13 votes = 05.256 => Toss-Up
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs T Pawlenty (R) after 25 votes = 05.333 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs S Angle (R) after 15 votes = 05.333 => Toss-Up
MA: M Capuano (D) vs C Baker (R) after 13 votes = 05.385 => Toss-Up
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs J Aiona (R) after 13 votes = 05.513 => Toss-Up
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs J Edgar (R) after 18 votes = 05.556 => Toss-Up
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs L Lingle (R) after 15 votes = 05.556 => Toss-Up
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs S Walker (R) after 11 votes = 05.606 => Toss-Up
CT: E Lamont (D) vs J Rell (R) after 16 votes = 05.625 => Toss-Up
VT: D Markowitz (D) vs B Dubie (R) after 12 votes = 05.694 => Toss-Up
WA: C Gregoire (D) vs R McKenna (R) after 16 votes = 05.729 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Sununu (R) after 13 votes = 05.769 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs M Seifert (R) after 22 votes = 05.833 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs M Whitman (R) after 25 votes = 05.867 => Leans Democrat
MI: J Granholm (D) vs M Rogers (R) after 11 votes = 05.909 => Leans Democratic
RI: F Caprio (D) vs D Carcieri (R) after 03 votes = 06.111 => Leans Democratic
PA: P Murphy (D) vs W Shuster (R) after 12 votes = 06.111 => Leans Democratic
MI: J Granholm (D) vs P Hoekstra (R) after 19 votes = 06.140 => Leans Democratic
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs W Brady (R) after 17 votes = 06.176 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs D Nunes (R) after 18 votes = 06.204 => Leans Democratic
PA: P Murphy (D) vs J Scarnati (R) after 23 votes = 06.232 => Leans Democratic
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs M Neumann (R) after 16 votes = 06.250 => Leans Democratic
CT: E Lamont (D) vs R Simmons (R) after 13 votes = 06.282 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs A Schwarzenegger (R) after 20 votes = 06.333 => Leans D
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs D Manzullo (R) after 23 votes = 06.377 => Leans Democr
MA: M Capuano (D) vs M Romney (R) after 27 votes = 06.419 => Leans Democratic
CT: E Lamont (D) vs T Foley (R) after 07 votes = 06.429 => Leans Democratic
MA: M Capuano (D) vs S Brown (R) after 54 votes = 06.481 => Leans Democratic
VT: D Markowitz (D) vs T M Salmon (R) after 10 votes = 06.500 => Leans Democrat
WA: C Gregoire (D) vs D Rossi (R) after 21 votes = 06.508 => Leans Democratic
MI: J Granholm (D) vs M Cox (R) after 12 votes = 06.528 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs C Fiorina (R) after 28 votes = 06.548 => Leans Democratic
CO: M Udall (D) vs W Owens (R) after 07 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs E Paulsen (R) after 20 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democrat
DE: J Markell (D) vs T Wagner (R) after 11 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs M Kirk (R) after 38 votes = 06.754 => Leans Democratic
NV: R J Miller (D) vs J Gibbons (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P LePage (R) after 15 votes = 06.778 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs C Benson (R) after 14 votes = 06.786 => Leans Democratic
PA: P Murphy (D) vs R Santorum (R) after 16 votes = 06.875 => Leans Democratic
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs J Van Hollen (R) after 15 votes = 07.111 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs R Grams (R) after 26 votes = 07.179 => Likely Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs K McCarthy (R) after 18 votes = 07.222 => Likely Democr
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs R Kasten (R) after 16 votes = 07.292 => Likely Democratic
CT: E Lamont (D) vs J Lieberman (Ind) after 17 votes = 07.353 => Likely Democrat
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs C Djou (R) after 22 votes = 07.424 => Likely Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs D D Hunter (R) after 20 votes = 07.583 => Likely Democrat
MI: J Granholm (D) vs T McCotter (R) after 18 votes = 07.778 => Likely Democratic
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs S McCallum (R) after 10 votes = 07.833 => Likely Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs N Coleman (R) after 37 votes = 07.883 => Likely Democrat
CT: E Lamont (D) vs L McMahon (R) after 13 votes = 08.205 => Likely Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs T Emmer (R) after 30 votes = 08.222 => Likely Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs A Maldonado (R) after 06 votes = 09.167 => Safe Democrat
CO: M Udall (D) vs K Buck (R)
CO: M Udall (D) vs D Maes (R)
CO: M Udall (D) vs M Coffman (R)

REPUBLICANS OVER THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. J Gregg
  1. D Heller
  1. M Castle
  1. C Christie (vulnerable)
  1. W Allard (vulnerable)
  1. T Corbett (vulnerable)
  1. S Merrill (vulnerable)
  1. K Ayotte (vulnerable)
  1. M Schweiker (vulnerable)
  1. J Douglas (vulnerable)
  1. J Engler (vulnerable)

All they would be special level political targets for the democrats.

LIKELY INCUMBENTS IN THE NEXT CYCLE NO-SELECTED

This group includes incumbents what likely will continue after 2010 elections with or without reelection, and competitive candidates for 2010 elections what likely will win.

ILNS: Alexander Giannoulias: IL 1976 IL Treasurer 07- .
CONS: Michael Farrand Bennet: IND CO 1964 Senator from Colorado 09- .
WINS: Herbert H Kohl: WI 1935 Senator from Wisconsin 89- .
MANS: Deval Laurdine Patrick: MA 1956 Governor of Massachusetts 07- .
NJNS: Frank Raleigh Lautenberg: NJ 1924 Senator from New Jersey 82-01 03- .  
ILNS: Patrick Joseph Quinn: IL 1948 Governor of Illinois 09- . Lieutenant Governor of IL 03-09. IL State Treasurer 91-95. Lost for Senate 96. Lost for Lieutenant Governor of IL 98. Lost for IL Secretary of State 94. Lost for IL State Treasurer 86.
HINS: Daniel Kahikina Akaka: HI 1924 Senator from Hawaii 90- . USHRep 77-90.
CANS: Dianne Goldman Berman Feinstein: CA 1933 Senator from California 92- . Mayor of San Francisco 78-88. Lost for Mayor of San Francisco 71 and 75. Lost for Governor 90.
MNNS: Mark Brandt Dayton: MN 1947 Senator from Minnesota 01-07. MN State Auditor 91-95. Lost for Senate 82. Lost for Governor 98.
MENS: Elizabeth H Mitchell: SC ME 1940 President ME Senate 08- . Lost for Senate 84.

NO-SELECTED DEMOCRATS VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

IL: P Quinn (D) vs W Brady (R) after 16 votes = 04.896 => Toss-Up
WI: H Kohl (D) vs P Ryan (R) after 30 votes = 05.222 => Toss-Up
MA: D Patrick (D) vs C Baker (R) after 16 votes = 05.417 => Toss-Up
NJ: F Lautenberg (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 18 votes = 05.463 => Toss-Up
IL: A Giannoulias (D) vs M Kirk (R) after 44 votes = 05.682 => Toss-Up
ME: E Mitchell (D) vs P LePage (R) after 09 votes = 05.741 => Leans Democratic
CA: D Feinstein (D) vs M Bono Mack (R) after 26 votes = 06.731 => Leans Democrat
HI: D Akaka (D) vs L Lingle (R) after 25 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic
MN: M Dayton (D) vs T Emmer (R) after 28 votes = 06.964 => Leans Democratic
CO: M Bennet vs K Buck

Like the readers can see, this series takes J Lieberman (Ind) in the side of the adversaries because the voters here decide that by long margin.

RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER REPUBLICAN GERRYMANDER REDISTRICTING FOR THE U.S. HOUSE DISTRICTS

In the 23 states included in these series, the bluest states, they are 78 US House districts with R+ rate following the Cook Partisan Voting Index. The republicans hold currently 53 of these districts and the democrats 25, with risk of lose more in November elections.

In the 27 states included not in this series, some of they swing states like Ohio, Florida and others, they are only 50 D+ or EVEN districts. The republicans hold cnly two (LA-02 and OH-12).

Looking to the redistricting I make this rank what can show the current situation.

From Wikipedia: "Gerrymandering is a form of boundary delimitation (redistricting) in which electoral district or constituency boundaries are deliberately modified for electoral purposes, thereby producing a contorted or unusual shape. The resulting district is known as a gerrymander; however, that word can also refer to the process. Gerrymandering may be used to achieve desired electoral results for a particular party..."

I create the RGR (Republican Gerrymander Redistricting) rate for try see what states have worse redistricting for democrats. In a 0.000-1.000 scale with 1.000 as absolute republican gerrymander redistricting:

RGR=0.487 D+05 Michigan
RGR=0.369 D+07 New Jersey
RGR=0.368 D+09 Illinois
RGR=0.360 D+08 California
RGR=0.325 D+03 Minnesota
RGR=0.300 D+04 Oregon
RGR=0.259 D+12 New York
RGR=0.250 D+03 Wisconsin
RGR=0.250 D+09 Maryland
RGR=0.247 D+02 Pennsylvania
RGR=0.222 D+04 Washington
RGR=0.133 D+02 Nevada
RGR=0.100 D+06 Maine
RGR=0.086 D+00 Colorado
RGR=0.060 D+07 Connecticut
RGR=0.033 D+02 New Mexico
RGR=0.000 D+01 Iowa
RGR=0.000 D+01 New Hampshire
RGR=0.000 D+12 Massachusetts
RGR=0.000 D+07 Delaware
RGR=0.000 D+11 Rhode Island
RGR=0.000 D+13 Hawaii
RGR=0.000 D+13 Vermont

Some blue states are still affected by previous republican gerrymander redistricting, like we can see, and need an urgent redistricting.

The links in the state names go to my diaries about democratic gerrymander redistricting (always finding the limits) for these states in Swing State Project.

My way for redistrict New York is recogniced as winner in Swing State Project Contest for this state with nice words. Thanks to SSP. And thanks to Dave for his application for redistricting. If you wish help him for add new data, you can go here.

Many times the Governor, the State Senate and the State House are key in the redistricting process, cause of that is very important have a democratic majority. These are the percentages of the current democratic delegations:

40.0% PA State Senate
42.1% MI State Senate

51.2% PA State House
51.6% NY State Senate
52.5% WI State House
54.5% WI State Senate
55.6% NH State House
56.0% IA State House
56.9% CO State House
57.1% ME State Senate
57.1% NV State Senate
57.5% NJ State Senate
58.3% NH State Senate
58.5% DE State House
58.8% NJ State House
59.3% IL State House
60.0% OR State House
60.0% MI State House
60.0% CO State Senate
60.0% OR State Senate
62.0% CA State House
62.2% WA State House
62.7% IL State Senate
63.2% WA State Senate
63.6% ME State House
64.0% IA State Senate
64.1% CA State Senate
64.3% NM State House
64.3% NM State Senate
64.9% MN State House
66.7% NV State House
66.7% CT State Senate
68.0% VT State House
68.7% MN State Senate
70.2% MD State Senate
71.4% DE State Senate
71.8% NY State House
73.8% MD State House
75.5% CT State House
77.0% VT State Senate
86.8% RI State Senate
87.5% MA State Senate
88.2% HI State House
90.0% MA State House
92.0% RI State House
92.0% HI State Senate

The republicans can win full control of the redistricting process in:

PA: If win the governor and the majority in the state house.

The republicans can block a democratic redistrictig in:

MI: If keep the majority in the state senate or win the governor.
NV: If win the governor.
WI: If win the governor or some of the seate chambers.
IL: If win the governor.
And maybe in OR (Governor), NY (St Senate) and NH (St Senate, St House) and some state more if the things go very bad.

In HI, ME, WA, NJ and IA they are independent or bipartisan commissions for redistricting. For the remaining 27 states we can see the same only for ID and AZ. The republicans take advantage of this.

If you see this diary after days, you can see the last actualization of this serie in my last diary. All the polls continue open to new votes still. The results of the polls of previous diaries are updated too in the last diary. For see my last diary click in "abgin's diary".

Originally posted to abgin on Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 06:43 AM PDT.

Poll

CO: M Udall (D) vs W Owens (R)

14%1 votes
42%3 votes
14%1 votes
14%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
14%1 votes

| 7 votes | Vote | Results

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