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There is a lot of polling in the Thursday edition of the Wrap, and little-to-none of it is bound to make Democrats terribly optimistic about the direction in which the 2010 election cycle is heading.

Sure, a lot of the less-than-charitable data comes from partisan sources. But even a couple of independent sources come up with data that shows Democrats in considerably bleaker positions than earlier data would seem to indicate.

That warning offered in advance, let's trudge forward with the Thursday edition of the Wrap....

THE U.S. SENATE

FL-Sen: Crist internal gives him (narrow lead), as he gains Dem nod
Given where public polling was on this race as recently as three weeks ago, it is hard to get a lot of confidence for Independent Charlie Crist based on the release of his own internal polling by Keith Fredrick. The new poll gives Crist a lead of just a single point, with Crist at 35%, Rubio at 34%, and Kendrick Meek well behind the pack at 17%. Crist did get some welcome news today, as he locked in a surprising endorsement in the form of state senator Al Lawson. Lawson just finished with a closer-than-expected primary challenge to Congressman Allen Boyd, one in which he challenged Boyd to his left. Lawson's defection is particularly notable, given that he is an African-American Democrat who is choosing Crist over Kendrick Meek, who is seeking to be the first African-American member of the U.S. Senate ever from the state of Florida.

KY-Sen: New Braun Research poll puts Paul back in the lead
Braun Research is back with their semi-regular survey of Kentucky on behalf of CN|2, and their assessment of the race has changed quite a bit in the past few weeks. After giving Democrat Jack Conway a one-point lead in their last survey, the pollster moves Republican Rand Paul back into the lead. The new numbers put Paul at 42% and Conway at 37%. The poll also decides to look ahead to 2011, where they find Democratic Governor Steve Beshear in position to get re-elected narrowly, as he leads Republican challenger David Williams by six points.

NY-Sen: Primary poll puts undecided in the lead...by a lot
In a sign of how pedestrian the Republican primary to challenge Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has been, half of the GOP electorate is still undecided with less than two weeks to go, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll of the Empire State. Former Congressman Joe DioGuardi paces the field with 28% of the vote, with David Malpass trailing at 12% and Bruce Blakeman in the third spot at 10% of the vote.

OH-Sen: PPP poll gives Portman a solid edge over Fisher
PPP's new poll out of the Buckeye State is a reversal of fortune from the previous PPP survey in the state. Republican Rob Portman has pulled out to a seven-point lead over Democrat Lee Fisher (45-38). Tom Jensen of PPP points to an interesting dichotomy among the undecideds: they voted for Obama in 2008 by a two-to-one margin, but have a net disapproval (40-46) of the President at this point. What direction will those folks head in November? This pattern could be repeated in races all over the country.

THE U.S. HOUSE

IA-03: Boswell gets key endorsement as Dems hammer Zaun
In agricultural Iowa, incumbent Democrat Leonard Boswell got a key endorsement in his dangerously close battle with Republican Brad Zaun in the swing 3rd district. Boswell won the endorsement of the Iowa Corn Growers yesterday. Meanwhile, Iowa Democrats have launched a hard hitting ad on Brad Zaun that goes after the Republican for a domestic incident in 2001 that recently came to light (for what it's worth, DMR columnist Kathie Obradovich is not a fan of the ad).

NY-23: Hoffman vows to fight until November
For those hoping for some delicious Republican infighting saving a tough seat for the Dems, you are about to get some love from a very familiar source. Doug Hoffman has now made it clear--if he does not win the Republican primary in a couple of weeks, he will continue onward to the general election as the nominee of the Conservative Party. Interestingly, the Tea Party that launched Hoffman to prominence in 2009 is making it clear that they may not go along for the ride in November if Hoffman decides to split the conservative vote yet again.

PA-12: GOP internal predicts GOP to snag Murtha seat in November
Democrat Mark Critz might have won the special election to replace John Murtha in May, but a new internal poll out from Public Opinion Strategies is claiming that Republican Tim Burns will claim the district on his second attempt in November. An internal poll from the NRCC claims that Burns is at 48%, with the newly-minted incumbent Critz five points back at 43%. The district is a swing district, one carried by both John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008 (a rarity, to be sure).

VA-05: The ugliest poll on Earth just got...uglier
Republicans crowed, and Democrats blanched, when a summer poll in the 5th district held by Democrat Tom Perriello from SurveyUSA showed the incumbent trailed by twenty-three points to Republican Rob Hurt. SurveyUSA is back in the Fifth, and the results are even worse. The pollster, which has been unrelentingly negative in its assessment of Democratic House candidates this year, has Hurt now at 61% of the vote, with Perriello well behind at 35%.

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Ayers McHenry heads west, and the ugly continues
Consider the source (Republican pollster, partisan sponsor), but the third wave of House polls from GOP number-crunchers Ayers McHenry looks at the West, and the numbers for the Democrats there are almost universally awful. The pollster, looking at ten Democratic-held districts, has the GOP going 6-3-1 in trial heats for November. The standard caveats apply for internal polls, but the Colorado blog ColoradoPols uncovered another potential issue: the fact that the firm did not appear to poll more than the two major party candidates. In races with active teabagger candidates, that could actually matter in a close race.

AZ-01: Paul Gosar (R) 47%, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 41%
AZ-05: Dave Schweikert (R) 50%, Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) 44%
AZ-08: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) 46%, Jesse Kelly (R) 46%
CA-11: David Harmer (R) 45%, Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) 44%
CA-47: Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) 45%, Van Tran (R) 43%
CO-03: Scott Tipton (R) 51%, Rep. John Salazar (D) 43%
CO-04: Cory Gardner (R) 50%, Rep. Betsy Markey (D) 39%
NM-01: Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) 49%, Jon Barela (D) 42%
NV-03: Joe Heck (R) 48%, Rep. Dina Titus (D) 45%
OR-05: Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) 44%, Scott Bruun (R) 36%

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

FL-Gov: Scott selects running mate for November
Rick Scott made an interesting selection today, giving the nod to African American Republican state legislator Jennifer Carroll as his choice for Lt. Governor. Besides the obvious gender and racial balance represented by Carroll is a potentially more important political consideration: Carroll had been a supporter of Bill McCollum during the recently concluded primary. The thaw between Scott and supporters of McCollum could be a long time in coming, as the vanquished foe is still very reluctant to support his fellow Republican.

MD-Gov: Dems pounce on Ehrlich union endorsement
It has become common practice for Republicans to pooh-pooh union endorsements of Democrats, arguing that such endorsements are the work of the "bosses" and not good rank-and-file teachers/officers/etc. Therefore, it is a tad ironic that a rare union endorsement of a Republican candidate has such transparent evidence of such top-driven influence. The Democrats are pouncing on the endorsement of Republican Robert Ehrlich by the Maryland Classified Employees Association. Democrats were lightning-quick to point out that the union's executive director is a former Republican state legislator, who is running for office as a Republican this year (and could probably use some love from the top of the ticket).

NY-Gov: Republican primary poll shows race still in the air
Rick Lazio has been the frontrunner for the GOP gubernatorial nomination throughout the 2010 election, but that might be changing at the last, according to the new poll from Quinnipiac. Lazio's lead is down to twelve points (47-35) over businessman Carl Paladino. Lazio is probably close enough to 50% to be comfortable, but his days of having a two-to-one lead over Paladino are pretty much over.

OR-Gov: Labor comes in big for Democrat John Kitzhaber
Oregon is one of those states where donors can drop big coin on their favored candidates: at one point earlier in the cycle, the majority of Republican Chris Dudley's take came from just two donors. Labor is starting to weigh in on the race. The latest example: the AFSCME, which dropped six figures ($100K) during August into the coffers of Democratic gubernatorial nominee John Kitzhaber.

TX-Gov: Even GOP internal polls have Perry sitting at 50%
As a sign of how potentially vulnerable incumbent Republican Rick Perry truly is, even internal polling for the GOP cannot put the incumbent over 50% in his re-election bid. That said, the poll conducted by Wilson Research Strategies for GOPAC does give Perry a sizeable edge, with Perry at 50% and Democratic challenger Bill White at 38%.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

Not a ton of data from the House of Ras today, but it joins the rest of the numbers from their day in that unremittingly negative tone. Team Ras-sie put both Rick Scott (FL-Gov) and Dino Rossi (WA-Sen) out in front today. The only poll that can come close to being construed as positive for Dems is the relatively small lead for GOP incumbent Sean Parnell in Alaska.

AK-Gov: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 53%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 43%
FL-Gov: Rick Scott (R) 45%, Alex Sink (D) 44%
WA-Sen: Dino Rossi (R) 48%, Sen. Patty Murray (D) 46%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 07:46 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  nooo... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BruinKid, atdnext

    I like Dina Titus. I suffered 8 years of Portman as a rep, I don't want Joe freaking Heck.

    Insert witty slogan here.

    by SniperCT on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 07:49:09 PM PDT

  •  OH-Sen, Question's wrong.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jonze

    "The Candidates For US Sen. Are R/D",

    Wrong.

    Rob Portman
    Lee Fisher
    Eric Deaton (Constitution)
    Dan LaBotz (Socialist)

    It's 2 more people.  Ask the question.  Maybe those upset with Rob can vote Eric, and give Lee "Wonder Bread is more exciting than I am" Fisher any chance at all..

  •  any analysis to share on CO and AZ races?/nt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    citizenx, zapus

    If looks could kill it would have been us instead of him.

    by jhannon on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 07:52:23 PM PDT

    •  I'll give you some... Hickenlooper wins big, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oceanstateliberal247

      Bennet  wins by a little.

      Nobody's going in the voting booth to vote for Hick and Buck.  Bennet should thank his lucky stars he has a candidate for Colorado Governor as good as Hickenlooper. Mark it down now -- Hickenlooper saves a Senate seat for Dems in CO.

      •  I feel this way too, but... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        zapus

        I'd be happier if Hick had his massive lead vs just one RW candidate right now rather than two.  With Maes and Tancrazy splitting the RW vote, Hick can win in a landslide w/out cracking 50% -- which presumably wouldn't help Bennet.  I'm hoping one of the crazies will fade, so that the Gov race ends up 60/40 or something.  THAT would certainly drag Bennet to 51 or whatever.    

        •  This was my thinking as well... (0+ / 0-)

          Hickenlooper will be a cinch to win, he won't pull as many to the polls.  GOP is putting a ton of pressure to get Maes to drop out, still holding strong.  I guess the September 3rd deadline was a soft one, as the GOP believes they have more time yet.  

          With both Tancredo and Maes on the ballot I could see them rallying out the teabagger vote as their supporters try to beat each other if they can't beat Hickenlooper. And both groups would punch the ballot for Buck.  

          The Progressive Left - Selling Outrage one breathless donation request at a time.

          by Jonze on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:42:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  SUSA and VA-5 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, atdnext

    They had Perriello trailing Goode by 34 in August 2008.

    Being risk and confrontation adverse is not the prescription for a successful presidency.

    by Paleo on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 07:52:38 PM PDT

  •  It's a GOP internal poll... (4+ / 0-)

    Grain of salt, as usual.

    What's more telling to me are the responses I get while on the phone. I've seen bad days and I've seen good days. So far, from the "most likely undecided" lists I've been calling, I've been getting a few more Titus voters than Heck voters, along with a still fairly large pool of undecided voters. This is FAR from "over", and I encourage my fellow Nevadans to join me and others in helping Dina Titus WIN!

  •  Crist must be in bad trouble (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fladem, LordMike

    ...if they're already releasing internal polls with Crist having a nominal lead.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 07:53:42 PM PDT

    •  Dead man walking (0+ / 0-)

      Republicans have abandoned him, his job approval have been sinking, once big donors figure out he doesn't have much of a chance the money flow will stop and he doesn't really have a party base/organization to rely on.

      Dems should start going all in with Meek. It helps Sink and in the worst case scenario he'll build some name recognition for a future statewide race.

    •  The next couple of weeks (0+ / 0-)

      will be critical for them to hold their Democratic votes.  I am skeptical they can do that without losing the GOP votes that Crist still has.

      I wouldn't count Crist out: he has a positive favorability rating as Governor.  But he is in trouble.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:14:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  His only chance is a Meek endorsement (0+ / 0-)

      ---
      Mr. Rogers taught us to be better than this.

      by VelvetElvis on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:22:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Gov (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Steve Singiser, atdnext

    Keith hammered the Wisconsin GOP in Worst Persons tonight for claiming there was a "super secret" fundraiser between Tom Barrett (D) and Nancy Pelosi.  There wasn't.

  •  Why has Lazio's lead in the primary narrowed? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Trix

    Hasnt he been one of the strongest critics of the mosque? I would think that would help in a GOP primary.

  •  I think it's about time ti write off Ohio... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Losty, coffejoe

    Portman has a silly money advantage, almost up double digits and Fisher is exciting and charismatic as a dead fish.  

    The Progressive Left - Selling Outrage one breathless donation request at a time.

    by Jonze on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 07:57:32 PM PDT

  •  The Kentucky race is going to come down to (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, jj32, atdnext, James Allen

    GOTV- just which ever side gets out the vote. I know that sounds obvious, but its just going to be a close race. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic  about Conway though.

    "Real History is not for Sissies" Barry McCain

    by Hill Jill on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 07:59:30 PM PDT

    •  The Democratic party would be smart to spend (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      EJP in Maine, Hill Jill, James Allen

      as much money as it needs to in order to defeat Rand Paul. He is a symbol for the tea baggers, and if he wins we all lose. He is not his Dad, he is not even close to his Dad. Conway is so much better, and he needs to win. I also think in every race where there is a tea bagger running, we need to spend, spend, spend and  be sure to defeat them. The regular run of the mill Republicans who are running are not a threat, even McCain, even giving his running so far to the right, he is not as great a danger as empowering even one of these tea baggers can be. The attacks should start in earnest on Jan Brewer, she needs to be exposed for the ass that she is. This woman was corrupt all of her political life and she needs to be shown as such. I am not a political consultant, but no matter how these people say they want to vote against "Washington", when they learn their vote against "Washington" is a vote for something much, much worse, they can be convinced to vote with us.

  •  We've opened up a huge pessimism gap over the GOP (11+ / 0-)

    Diaries like Cenk's should serve us well in November.

    Or not.

  •  Way too much attention is being (5+ / 0-)

    given to internal polling.

    I have worked on more than one campaign that would leak one night of good polling to keep morale up knowing that the polling over several nights was much worse.

    Campaigns lie about their internal polling.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:06:26 PM PDT

  •  deer in the headlights (0+ / 0-)

    You'd hope some of the Democratic Party movers and shakers would at least decide to go down swinging. If they haven't started swinging by this time next week it'll look like panicked indecision. Axelrod most of all looks entirely out of his depth. Or maybe it's all part of the plan ...

    If you didn't like the news today, go out and make some of your own.

    by jgnyc on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:06:42 PM PDT

  •  The Republicans and Karl Rove are focusing on KY (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BruinKid, LordMike, atdnext

    and in particular the 6th District... which is Lexington.

    Chandler and Conway are their targets.

    So, Conway has lost some advantage because the airwaves are blanketed right now with attack ad buys from Rove and Rand Paul. The GOP has 6 times as many ads running as Conway.

    The second ad is part of large statewide ad buy. In the Lexington market, alone, the 501(4)(c) organization (the conservative organization Crossroads GPS) will spend nearly $65,000 on ads this week, enough to blanket the airwaves, as cn|2 Politics reported Monday.

    Here is the NRCC’s ad buys for the Lexington market:

       * 9/13-9/16: $34,873
       * 9/17-9/23: $36,400
       * 9/24-9/30: $74,509
       * 10/1-10/7: $72,318
       * 10/8-10/14: $72,573
       * 10/15-10/21: $51,545

    The Republicans can't afford to lose this Senate seat and they are throwing everything at it. They don't intend to let us take a Senate seat from them like they did to us with Teddy Kennedy.

    We really need to buck up and get Conway's back here. Too many think "This is Kentucky... they're rednecks and won't vote Democratic and deserve to lose." BUT Rand Paul is a horror for the entire nation and Jack Conway is a young and vibrant fighting Democrat. Conway stands with us on healthcare, jobs, consumer rights and Elizabeth Warren.

    HELP US REACH $10,000!

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    This is the COMMUNITY-QUILT-PROJECT-Supports-JACK-CONWAY-for-SENATE and you could win this quilt! This is the hand-made quilt from the first Yearly Kos convention

    Every contribution of $10 or more per day on this Act Blue page between now and September 15, 2010 will represent one chance in a drawing for the quilt on the last day of September. No cash, no problem, see essay entry instructions here.

    Goal Thermometer

    <div style="color: #a00000;"> Our... constitutional heritage rebels at the thought of giving government the power to control men's minds. Thurgood Marshal

    by bronte17 on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:10:21 PM PDT

    •  Paul is a Jeb Bush 2016 Machine cog... (0+ / 0-)

      Rove's Crossroads outfit is laying the groundwork already.  

      The Progressive Left - Selling Outrage one breathless donation request at a time.

      by Jonze on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:47:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  can we cut this boogeyman shit with rove already! (0+ / 0-)

        jesus we freaked ourselves out telling each other he had a plan for the repelicans to rule congress and the white house for a thousand years and then we beat his ass good in 06 and 08...now him and jeb are what we should worry about for 2016! shit we will all die someday why not just forget the politics and become catatonic about that?

        •  Rove is deeply involved with the Kentucky race (0+ / 0-)

          Why do you call fact a boogeyman?

          <div style="color: #a00000;"> Our... constitutional heritage rebels at the thought of giving government the power to control men's minds. Thurgood Marshal

          by bronte17 on Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 07:32:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Not to mention, Conway is one good looking (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      EJP in Maine

      man, that has to count for something. Shallow, yes, but how many people vote on the best looking person? It is a proven fact that good looking people are beleived to be telling the truth more often than not so good looking people. Rand Paul must be defeated, by any means possible, and especially knowing that Rove is putting so much into getting him elected, to see him lose would be almost as sweet as seeing Rove on election night in 2008 be forced to announce that Obama was the projected winner of the Presidency.

  •  AAF Crosstabs (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BruinKid, atdnext

    The western polling cited was commisioned by the American Action Forum.  From a NYT profile:

    Republicans who are donors, board members or both include Haley Barbour, the governor of Mississippi; Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida; Ed Gillespie, like Mr. Barbour a former chairman of the Republican Party; Fred Malek, an investor and official in the Nixon and first Bush administrations; Robert K. Steel, a former executive of Wachovia and Goldman Sachs who was a Treasury official in the second Bush administration, and Kenneth G. Langone, a founder of Home Depot and a former director of the New York Stock Exchange

    That article in the Times was titled "G.O.P. Group to Promote Conservative Ideas"

    If you look into the crosstabs, for instance in CO-04, you see very high "Tea Party Support."  In the case of CO-04, they had 197/400 of respondents indicating "Support Tea Party."  Do 49.25% of people in that district support the tea party under any realistic definition of "support."

    This outfit polled CT-04 recently, and found it a close race.  Yet they had 44% "Tea Party support" here in southwestern CT.  That's patently ridiculous.

    Check the crosstabs in your home district from this pollster and check the "tea party support" numbers.  

    Republicans just try to block anything Democrats and science have to say.

    by Russells 10 on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:11:17 PM PDT

  •  OH-Sen. The disfunctional Emanuel. (0+ / 0-)

    No Jenifer, Portman. That works. It's working for Obama how?

    "They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

    by JugOPunch on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:12:18 PM PDT

  •  Sigh. Time to work harder I guess (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, LordMike, jj32, singe, FininWA

    Today I am reminding myself that in early September of 2008 I thought McCain and Palin were going to beat Obama.  

    "Goldman Sachs forced to legally change name to 'Goldman Sachs,Those Bastards'...The Onion February 1, 2010

    by St Louis Woman on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:12:44 PM PDT

    •  and last week i was sure i had a melanoma and (3+ / 0-)

      it turns out i don't! we need to stop scaring ourselves as if we were away at some demented camp and waiting for the denoginator to come and get us in our tents....

    •  I remember a very long pre-mortem diary... (4+ / 0-)

      ...over at MyDD in September, 2008.  We were all discussing what would happen to the progressive movement after Obama lost.  We pretty much all came to the conclusion that we would be purged and the DLC would rise again.

      Everyone was 100% sure that the election was over for us...

      I did some studying.  I looked at the generic Congressional ballot for the end of September 2002.  It had Dems + 4, enough to possibly win congress (the GOP had only a 5 seat majority at the time).  At the end of october, it was GOP + 6.

      The numbers can change pretty quickly... PPP notes that the big problem is turnout... Almost all our candidates would be leading if we were at 2008 turnout levels.  The path to victory is purely GOTV.  The unions have decided to skip TV ads and focus exclusively on getting out the vote.  That's a smart choice, IMO!

      We need to get dems motivated... the scare of a GOP congress should be enough... what more do you need?

      DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
      LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

      by LordMike on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 09:18:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Your comment would make a great diary. (4+ / 0-)

        I had forgotten how many people thought Obama was going to lose in 2008. And I didn't realize that the unions were going to concentrate their money on GOTV. I am wondering if this is going to turnout like the 2004 elections in reverse. The mood was bad for the GOP, but they did a ton of under the radar GOTV with the Evangelical churches and surprised on election night. Between OFA's massive GOTV operations and the unions, I wonder if we'll be able to surprise on election night this year?

  •  We're reduced to cheering for.... (0+ / 0-)
    ...Crist?

    British Petroleum: I think that means it's foreign oil.

    by Bensdad on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:13:43 PM PDT

  •  sigh - RI not listed - again n/t (0+ / 0-)

    You can safely assume you have created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do. Anne Lamott

    by zooecium on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:21:44 PM PDT

  •  PA 12, reality vs. GOP internals (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    This race is exactly what I mean when I post again and again that polls are for chumps, and internal polls are for schmucks.

    That internal GOP poll that shows Critz behind is a carbon copy of the same poll they had back in the Spring that put Burns ahead. I think it is the same number.

    Why do rational Liberal and Progressive pundits believe everything a Republican pollster spews out? Guys, just like Fox news, they are not paid for finding out the truth, they are paid for supporting the lie.

    Here is reality in a nut shell. One more time.
    For Burns to win, you have to believe that the exact same electorate will switch 8% of its vote from Critz to Burns six months after the special election. Back then, Burns had all the back story going his way. The Health Care debate was white hot. The Tea Party was held in much higher esteem. The GOP spent money like it was water, and there was no other race in PA, save for the Democratic Senate Primary to take away attention. They painted Critz as a Pelozzi insider, and ran with the same near-to-racist anti-Obama rhetoric that you are getting now. End result? Burns loses by 8 points. EIGHT FREAKING POINTS! What do you think is so much worse now that almost one out of ten of the same electorate will change their minds? Economy worse? Not in Western Pennsylvania. Health Care worse? What Health Care? Tea Party more beloved? No, not even close. But over and over again this race, which is over right now and belongs to Critz, is force fed on election watchers as a toss-up. Toss up my ass.

    And, you can find this same meme in Democratic held HoR race after race across the nation. I am sorry guys, but GOP pollsters are paid to be wrong. That is their problem, not mine. Don't make it yours.

    •  But it's not "the exact same electorate" (0+ / 0-)
      Special elections, including this one, have a very low turnout. In May, 137,000 votes were cast for Congress in PA-12. By contrast, in 2006, the last off-year election, 203,000 votes were cast.
      •  You mean that the Republicans stayed home? (0+ / 0-)

        Come on. They survey on a sampling of thousands. The Special election is a sampling, if you will, of over a hundred thousand.
        You actually think that there was a hidden cohort of likely Republican voters that just didn't show up? Or, do you think like the Republican pollsters that one out of ten of the same voters will change their minds, even though it is the same two candidates, and the conditions for the Democrat were worse in MAY? Is that what you think? Is it troll?
        Oh, by the way 137K in a special (primary) election is an amazing number.

        •  The special election date was set for 5/18 (0+ / 0-)

          because that was the primary day. Lots of Democrats were drawn to the polls that day because of the Specter-Sestak Senate race, while there was no comparable contest on the GOP side to attract voters.

  •  The Baucus election. Thanks a lot Max. n/t (0+ / 0-)

    "They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

    by JugOPunch on Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 08:30:01 PM PDT

  •  I love these snapshots, but is there any way (0+ / 0-)

    that you could mark if the seat is currently held by Democrats or Republicans?

  •  I love you man, but ... (0+ / 0-)

    how long have you been covering politics and polling? I think it's time we cover polling 101 again. Ahem ...

    A seven point margin between two candidates in a poll with a margin of error of 4.5% (i.e. OH-Sen) is not a "solid lead." In fact, it's not a lead at all; it's within the margin. Margin of error applies to every number gleaned from a sample, which includes Fischer's number AND Portman's number. Which means this sample could be accurate and Fisher could be at 42.5, and Portman at 40.5.

    But oh, you say, it's "more likely" that Portman is ahead (again, if the sample is a good one). Yes, but by such a teensy weensy amount it's not even worth talking about. In fact, that's the whole point of a normal distribution of data, which is what polling is based on. The slope at the top of the curve, which is where the Margin of Error resides, is very very small. So as long as you're within that margin (which for a horserace is 2x the stated MoE) any result is virtually equally likely to be accurate. Since the same pollster picked up a Fisher lead quite recently, it's almost certainly just noise.

    This is highly inconvenient for those who blog about polls, because almost every one you see in competitive races is not worth talking about (it's within the margin, so you can't say anything). But for the rest of us, worth remembering.

    And now back to your previously schedule bad news: Yes, Betsy Markey is in huge trouble. I really doubt John Salazar is though.

    •  I think you should take polling 101 again as well (0+ / 0-)

      The slope at the top of the curve is not small at all.
      The z-score for the difference between the two-way result for Portman/Fisher in the PPP poll, and a 50-50 split is 1.62. In plain numbers that means that there's a 89.5% chance that Portman is ahead, and a 10.5% chance that Fisher is ahead (assuming that the sample was drawn perfectly randomly).

      I wouldn't call that a 'teensy weensy amount'.

      Support Dennis McDonald and Montana Democrats in the 2010 election!

      by twohundertseventy on Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 11:54:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-11 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    EJP in Maine

    I'm in shock that this poll shows Jerry McNerney, one of the best members of Congress, a point behind in this admittedly competitive district.

    This is not the South or the sticks -- it's the San Francisco East Bay -- and McNerney should be up at least a few points.

    I put out my McNerney lawn sign last week. I'll give his office a call to see what volunteers are needed. If McNerney loses, I think we're at a tipping point of a Republican-led House. What the hell are people thinking?

  •  The union endorsement should not surprise us (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bush Bites, Dirtandiron

    . . .after all, it is a union of former government employees. It always amazes me how many of these folks crying for small government are, themselves, government employees. It seems they wish for small government as long as its not their own little piece of government turf.

  •  Maine is being polled by PPP (0+ / 0-)

    Got the call last night--finally someone other than Rasmussen is polling us!  I'm still worried, though.

    "...the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die." -Ted Kennedy

    by EJP in Maine on Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 01:49:31 AM PDT

  •  GA-Gov? Anybody paying attention? (0+ / 0-)

    Up to now I've thought former Gov. Barnes (D) has a real chance to defeat former corrupt Congressman Deal (R). But with the national numbers looking so bad for Dems...I dunno.

    Would love to see a poll. I think.

    "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

    by HeyMikey on Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 04:23:07 AM PDT

    •  Barnes will win. (0+ / 0-)

      His message of deference to the wisdom of the federal government in these trying or any other times will resonate with Georgia voters who are looking for a Governor who will work with the President and a people powered Congress to deliver the support and wisdom the citizens of Georgia need. As this is obviously not a national race, not all of the same issues apply, but many remain the same, namely LGBT rights, creating millions of green jobs and comprehensive immigration reform to bring people out of the shadows and registering them to fully participate in the rights of all people living in America as full citizens.

      •  Is that snark? Where do you live? (0+ / 0-)

        Those are the reasons I vote Democratic. But I am convinced a solid majority of my fellow Georgians has reactionary positions on:

        wisdom of the federal government

        working with the President

        people powered (Dem) Congress

        LGBT rights

        creating millions of green jobs

        comprehensive immigration reform

        Wish I could say otherwise.

        "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

        by HeyMikey on Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 02:15:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I live in Tennessee. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HeyMikey

          In Jim Cooper's district (to my chagrin). And despite the media's attempt to paint this country and this region as conservative, I know better because everyone I meet personally or communicate with here is very progressive. Plus the results of the 2006 and 2008 elections where people powered progressive priorities carried the day speak for themselves.

  •  CA-Gov: Brown v Whitman (0+ / 0-)

    If the socially moderate Meg Whitman wins the governor’s race at the top of the ticket, it will be because she entices at least 15-18 percent of Democrats to vote for her, as well a majority of the 20 percent of voters who are not aligned with any party.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    http://www.mercurynews.com/...

    Flanked by Latino political and community leaders, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown fired back at his Republican rival Thursday on leadership styles, experience and vision for California's future.

    Jerry Brown:

    California is rich enough in wealth and innovation to regain its leadership in clean-energy industries while restoring the state's ailing public education system. The state can "turn this breakdown into a breakthrough" with a governor who stands for "real change ... not marketing propaganda, but real change for the people of California."

    http://www.sfgate.com/...

    Jerry Brown has begun a visible campaign for governor.  He appeared in public Thursday at a sparsely attended rally at Laney College in Oakland, followed by two events in Los Angeles later in the day.

    http://www.americanprogressaction.or...

    Can Californians Trust What Whitman is Selling? An Analysis of Gubernatorial Candidate Meg Whitman’s Economic Policy Proposals.

    The government must stop giving tax breaks to any companies that move jobs overseas. ~ Sen. Barbara Boxer

    by anyname on Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 04:52:28 AM PDT

  •  Regardless of the state or the race. (0+ / 0-)

    You can post the same comment regardless of the race or the state because the values and popularity is universal. People want people powered progressive legislation that we won on in 2006 and 2008. Namely full constitutional rights for LGBT people, EFCA, creating millions of green jobs with cap-and-trade, a more robust health care reform package that the CBO will inevitably state factually deceases the deficit based on the numbers they are provided, comprehensive immigration reform that allows the tens of millions of people living in the shadows the freedom to come out of the shadows and vote without fear of racism and deportation and extended unemployment insurance.  That is what the American people regardless of state or district are demanding and that is the message people like Jack Conway and Elaine Marshall are delivering, our other candidates must join them and the people powered progressives in carrying that message and record to the voters in November!

  •  I'm gonna say this time and again... (0+ / 0-)

    in the lead-up, and after the result:

    Thanks, Dems, for giving us TeabaggeRubio as a result of sticking by your Nader (Meek).

    What's godd for the goose...

    More and Better Democrats

    by SJerseyIndy on Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 06:09:28 AM PDT

  •  Where is the reporting on the GA races? (0+ / 0-)

    I rarely see anything reported about them here. Is nobody conducting polls? Roy Barnes (D) has a strong chance of winning the governorship, and I'd love to see Johnny Isakson thrown out of the Senate.

    •  There Were A Couple.... (0+ / 0-)

      In the immediate wake of the primary in late July. Since then? Not so much.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 08:08:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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