This diary will discuss the current state of the 2010 gubernatorial and senatorial races in the Southeast Region (Sudeste) of Brazil, to identify the general political trends from region to region and state to state. The election will be held on October 3rd.
Basic background information on the structure of Brazilian Elections and the current partisan balance of Congress can be found in diaries here and here. Other regions of the country will be explored in future diaries.
The Southeast region is Brazil's most populous region and concentrates the largest share of Brazil's economic activity. It contains four states: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo. Below the fold will be a look at the candidates and current polling in the races for Governor and Senator in these four states.
The Southeast Region contains four states: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo, the first three of which are the three largest states in Brazil (in terms of population).
The political alignments of the larger parties are shown below. There are also a number of smaller splinter parties from across the political spectrum, and these will be described when necessary.
Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) - left
Workers' Party (PT) - left-center
Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) - center
Progressive Party (PP) - center-right
Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) - center-right
Democrats (DEM) - right
(For the sake of comparison, on this spectrum the Democratic Party in the USA would be center/center-right and the Republican Party would be extreme/fringe/lunatic-right.)
In most states, the PSB and PT join together to support the same candidates (and avoid splitting the vote). The same is true for the PSDB and DEM. The more politically centrist (and theoretically "bigger tent") parties such as PMDB and PP may sometimes join with the left in one state and with the right in another.
São Paulo
Brazil's most populous state has been governed by the PSDB since 1994, and current polling indicates that this trend is likely to continue. However, the state's three senators are all from the left, two from Lula's PT and one from the Brazilian Labor Party (PTB).
São Paulo's incumbent governor, José Serra (PSDB), is not running for re-election, but has instead chosen to challenge Dilma Rousseff (PT) for the presidency. This has left the door open for the return of popular ex-governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), who served from 2001 until 2006, when he resigned to run for President against Lula. His principal opponent is Senator Aloízio Mercadante, from Lula's PT. Current polling shows Alckmin with a huge lead, although Mercadante has narrowed it slightly. The only question remaining seems to be if he can cut the lead enough to force a run-off. All is not lost if Mercadante fails, however, since he still has 4 years left on his current term in the Senate.
Governor (SP) -- 30-August (previous 29-July)
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) 47% (50)
Aloízio Mercadante (PT) 23% (14)
Celso Russomano (PP) 8% (9)
Others 3% (3)
Blank 7% (10)
Undecided 11% (13)
The two races for the Senate, in contrast, are wide open. Neither incumbent is seeking re-election, and the PT and its ally PCdoB (Communist Party of Brazil) are holding on to slim leads. If this result were to hold, it would mean a shift leftward in the Senate alignment, as the PCdoB is considerably further left than the Brazilian Labor Party (PTB), which holds one of the outgoing seats. However, more than a third of voters remain undecided, so this result could still change drastically over the month until the election.
Marta Suplicy, former Federal Deputy, ex-Mayor of São Paulo, and Minister of Tourism under Lula, is currently in the lead, with singer and São Paulo city-council member Netinho de Paula in second. The centrist PMDB is running closely in third with ex-governor Orestes Quércia (1987-91). The PSDB trails considerably. Should Marta win, she will have the interesting distinction of serving alongside her ex-husband, Eduardo Suplicy, in the Senate.
Senator (SP) -- 4-September (previous 29-July)
Note: percentages sum to above 100% because each voter casts 2 votes - the top 2 vote-getters will win in the first round
Marta Suplicy (PT) 36% (31)
Netinho de Paula (PCdoB) 26% (18)
Orestes Quércia (PMDB) 23% (20)
Romeu Tuma (PTB) 13% (19)
Aloysio Nunes (PSDB) 12% (4)
Ciro Gomes (PTC) 7% (18)
Others 15% (20)
Blank 21% (25)
Undecided 32% (36)
Only named 1 candidate 15% (14)
Minas Gerais
Brazil's second most populous state is, like São Paulo, governed by the center-right PSDB. Incumbent Aécio Neves is at the end of his second term, and therefore ineligible to run again for the office of governor. He has one of the highest approval ratings among Brazil's governors and there were strong rumours over the past year or more that he would seek the presidential nomination for the PSDB. He has, instead, chosen to run for the Senate, where he is expected to win easily. In the same way that Lula's popularity has helped raise Dilma's polling numbers, Neves's support for his vice-governor Antônio Anastasia has helped pull him into the lead over centrist rival Hélio Costa, who has chosen the opposite route of Neves, by leaving the Senate to seek the governorship. Lula's PT has opted not to run a candidate, but to instead support the centrist Costa. The latest polls show this race as a deadlock, but the trends are all in support of the PSDB right now.
Governor (MG) -- 4-September (previous 29-July)
Antônio Anastasia (PSDB) 35% (21)
Hélio Costa (PMDB) 33% (39)
Others 3% (7)
Blank 6% (8)
Undecided 23% (25)
The race for Senator is a runaway, with Aécio Neves far out in front and ex-President Itamar Franco in a solid second place. While it may seem strange in the States to see ex-Presidents seeking further political office, it is actually quite common in Brazil. In fact, if Franco wins, he will become the third of four living ex-Presidents serving in the Senate! PT's candiate, Belo Horizonte Mayor Fernando Pimentel, is running far behind, so all indications seems to be that Minas Gerais will remain solidly center-right in the Senate.
Senate (MG) -- 30-August (previous 29-July)
Note: percentages sum to above 100% because each voter casts 2 votes - the top 2 vote-getters will win in the first round
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 68% (70)
Itamar Franco (PPS) 44% (39)
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 21% (18)
Others 5% (9)
Blank 8% (11)
Undecided 32% (29)
Only named 1 candidate 21% (25)
Rio de Janeiro
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil's most well-known state, has historically had a strong political left, especially when compared to neighboring São Paulo and Minas Gerais. The state supported the presidential candidacy of Leonel Brizola, who later became governor, and voted overwhelmingly for current President Lula da Silva. Governor Sérgio Cabral is running for re-election for the PMDB, in alliance with Lula's PT, and is expected to win handily. The Green Party (PV) is a distant second. The right-wing parties are not running candidates, but are instead supporting the Greens' opposition!
Governor (RJ) -- 3-September (previous 29-July)
I-Sérgio Cabral (PMDB) 58% (58)
Fernando Gabeira (PV) 15% (14)
Others 5% (4)
Blank 11% (12)
Undecided 10% (11)
The Rio Senate race is very close, and like the other Senate races, has a exceptionally high level of undecideds. Incumbent Marcelo Crivella is currently in the lead, running for the Brazilian Republican Party (PRB), which is aligned with Lula and the PT. Crivella, however, is a conservative evangelical who breaks with his party on social issues such as gay marriage, which makes him an atypical choice for a traditionally libertine state such as Rio. Lindberg Farias for the PT and César Maia for the right-wing Democrats are virtually tied for the second Senate seat, with Farias having narrowed a 16-point gap down to just 2 in slightly over a month. This race will be an interesting one to keep an eye on to see how much effect Lula's (and Dilma's) popularity will have on downticket PT candidates among undecided voters.
Senate (RJ) -- 30-August (previous 29-July)
Note: percentages sum to above 100% because each voter casts 2 votes - the top 2 vote-getters will win in the first round
I-Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 34% (37)
César Maia (DEM) 30% (37)
Lindberg Farias (PT) 28% (21)
Jorge Picciani (PMDB) 22% (11)
Others 12% (19)
Blank 30% (23)
Undecided 26% (32)
Only named 1 candidate 17% (19)
Espírito Santo
In comparison to the other states in the Southeast Region of Brazil, the small state of Espírito Santo is the most solidly left. None of the races here are even close. Incumbent Governor Paulo Hartung is term-limited and cannot run again. Sitting Senator Renato Casagrande is running to replace him under a large coalition of no less than 17 political parties on the left and center-left. Hartung's Vice-Governor, Ricardo Ferraço, is running for one of the Senate seats, and Magno Malta is seeking re-election to the Senate, under the same left-center coalition. All of these races are massive blowouts.
Governor(ES) -- 1-September (previous 27-July)
Renato Casagrande (PSB) 60% (51)
Luiz Paulo (PSDB) 13% (18)
Others 3% (4)
Blank 8% (10)
Undecided 15% (17)
Senate (ES) -- 1-September (previous 27-July)
Note: percentages sum to above 100% because each voter casts 2 votes - the top 2 vote-getters will win in the first round
I-Magno Malta (PR) 56% (53)
Ricardo Ferraço (PMDB) 52% (49)
Rita Camata (PSDB) 27% (30)
Others 14% (15)
Blank 9% (14)
Undecided 25% (19)
Only named 1 candidate 16% (20)
Next Diary: A look at the South.